St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.8 #42
Expected Predictive Rating +14.0 #38
Pace 64.3 #300
Improvement -3.0 #310

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #60 B- B+ C+ B+ C+
Defense #42 B+ B+ D+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #78 1.18 #152 +2.6 #100
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #203 0.72 #238 -0.9 #222
Three Pointers 38% #238 1.16 #22 +1.4 #134
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #88 +3.1 #87
Freethrows 0.33 #93 82% #2 0.27 #21
Second Chance 37.7% #16 1.10 #101 0.41 #34
Turnovers 15.7% #127
Total Offense +5.8 #60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #174 1.01 #26 +2.6 #93
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #49 0.75 #167 -1.8 #316
Three Pointers 36% #319 0.86 #21 +5.7 #11
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #26 +6.5 #26
Freethrows 0.24 #24 75% #324 0.18 #37
Second Chance 24.3% #16 1.00 #119 0.24 #28
Turnovers 14.6% #295
Total Defense +6.0 #42

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #132 -1.1% #81
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.2% #91 -11.7% #24
Possession Length 18.1 #249 18.0 #275
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #218 0.19 #249
Improvement -1.5 #260 -1.5 #271

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 3.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.4% 61.7% 36.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.7% 51.2% 27.3%
Average Seed 10.3 9.6 10.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 9.5% 36.6% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four17.3% 17.8% 17.2%
First Round32.1% 53.5% 28.2%
Second Round12.7% 22.8% 10.8%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 5.3% 2.2%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Away) - 15.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 312 - 017 - 7
Quad 48 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 128 St. Thomas W 84 - 58 88% +11  1 - 0 +25 +17 A C- B- +10 B- A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 254 Chattanooga W 87 - 66 96% +12  2 - 0 +13 +13 A+ D- F +1 C B A-
 Tue, Nov 11 214 Ohio W 90 - 60 94% +15  3 - 0 +24 +15 B- A+ B+ +9 A+ D- A
 Fri, Nov 14 144 North Texas W 80 - 49 90% +23  4 - 0 +29 +15 C- A+ D +15 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 19 156 Arkansas St. W 85 - 72 91% +7  5 - 0 +10 +11 B- A+ F -1 B C- F
 Wed, Nov 26 99 Wichita St. W 70 - 65 74% +3  6 - 0 +10 +1 F B- B+ +9 A- A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 27 59 Virginia Tech W 77 - 66 60% +8  7 - 0 +20 +12 A A D- +9 A+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 12 Vanderbilt L 71 - 96 24% -13  7 - 1 -6 +4 B+ C D- -9 B- F D-
 Sun, Dec 7 136 @Davidson W 70 - 61 76% +1  8 - 1 +14 +7 C+ B C +7 A A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 58 Boise St. L 67 - 68 59% -6  8 - 2 +8 +1 F+ C+ B- +8 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Dec 19 101 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 75 82% +10  9 - 2 +15 +9 C+ B+ C +5 A+ B- B-
 Mon, Dec 22 114 Northern Iowa W 63 - 58 86% -2  10 - 2 +5 +4 F A+ C +2 B B- D+
 Sun, Dec 28 162 @Loyola Marymount W 78 - 73 80% +1  11 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +24 A+ A+ A+ -15 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 30 281 @Pepperdine W 72 - 45 92% +12  12 - 2 2 - 0 +23 +10 B C C +17 A+ C+ B-
 Fri, Jan 2 218 Portland W 78 - 57 94% +14  13 - 2 3 - 0 +15 +10 A C C+ +6 A+ A F
 Sun, Jan 4 124 Seattle W 93 - 76 88% +0  14 - 2 4 - 0 +16 +33 A+ A+ A+ -16 D B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 131 Washington St. W 88 - 82 89% +9  15 - 2 5 - 0 +5 +12 A- F+ F -7 D- B- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 98 @San Francisco W 82 - 68 64% +9  16 - 2 6 - 0 +22 +17 A- A+ D+ +5 B- A- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 50 @Santa Clara L 54 - 62 42% -7  16 - 3 6 - 1 +6 -11 F C C+ +16 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 182 Oregon St. W 81 - 51 93% +14  17 - 3 7 - 1 +25 +14 B- A+ A- +14 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 218 @Portland W 75 - 69 87% +4  18 - 3 8 - 1 +6 +8 A- D- D+ -2 B B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 11 @Gonzaga L 69 - 80 15%
 Wed, Feb 4 208 San Diego W 84 - 66 96%
 Sat, Feb 7 98 San Francisco W 75 - 65 82%
 Wed, Feb 11 281 Pepperdine W 80 - 58 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 123 @Pacific W 72 - 65 74%
 Wed, Feb 18 124 @Seattle W 69 - 62 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 131 @Washington St. W 77 - 70 75%
 Wed, Feb 25 50 Santa Clara W 76 - 72 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 11 Gonzaga L 72 - 77 33%
Totals 24 - 6 14 - 4 +12 +6 B- B+ C+ +6 B+ B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 6.3 1.7 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.6 17.0 23.0 5.0 50.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 7.3 14.8 13.3 2.4 39.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.9 19.4 30.4 26.9 11.3 1.7 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7
16-2 55.6% 6.3    1.5 4.4 0.4
15-3 5.5% 1.5    0.2 0.8 0.6
14-4 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 3.3 5.2 1.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.7% 92.2% 35.5% 56.7% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 87.8%
16-2 11.3% 70.6% 26.1% 44.5% 9.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.7 1.9 3.3 60.2%
15-3 26.9% 51.2% 16.7% 34.5% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.2 7.5 0.1 13.1 41.4%
14-4 30.4% 36.5% 11.4% 25.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.6 7.8 0.2 19.3 28.3%
13-5 19.4% 23.9% 9.4% 14.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.8 0.1 0.0 14.8 16.0%
12-6 7.9% 14.7% 7.1% 7.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 6.8 8.2%
11-7 2.1% 11.5% 6.7% 4.8% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 5.2%
10-8 0.3% 4.5% 4.5% 11.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 40.4% 14.0% 26.4% 10.3 59.6 30.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 5.9 1.6 7.4 27.0 31.1 27.9 4.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 90.3% 8.6 2.4 13.3 21.8 33.9 17.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 80.7% 9.0 1.8 3.5 21.1 24.6 21.1 8.8