Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.4#16
Expected Predictive Rating+19.1#14
Pace83.1#6
Improvement-1.6#289

Offense
Total Offense+12.9#2
First Shot+12.3#2
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#139
Layup/Dunks+3.2#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.7#4
Freethrows+2.5#52
Improvement-0.4#221

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#59
First Shot+3.6#69
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#118
Layups/Dunks+3.4#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#181
Freethrows+2.7#41
Improvement-1.2#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
#1 Seed 5.8% 6.0% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 18.8% 19.3% 9.6%
Top 4 Seed 55.1% 56.2% 36.1%
Top 6 Seed 80.6% 81.5% 65.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.7% 97.0% 91.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.2% 96.5% 90.6%
Average Seed 4.5 4.4 5.4
.500 or above 98.8% 99.0% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 88.6% 80.2%
Conference Champion 18.7% 19.0% 14.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four2.4% 2.2% 4.7%
First Round95.7% 96.1% 89.7%
Second Round80.5% 81.2% 69.1%
Sweet Sixteen46.5% 47.2% 34.1%
Elite Eight20.6% 21.0% 13.5%
Final Four8.6% 8.8% 5.3%
Championship Game3.6% 3.6% 3.0%
National Champion1.5% 1.5% 1.2%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Neutral) - 94.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 29 - 9
Quad 27 - 115 - 10
Quad 35 - 020 - 10
Quad 42 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 344 North Dakota W 91-62 99%     1 - 0 +14.6 +8.1 +4.9
  Sat, Nov 8 18 @St. John's W 103-96 39%     2 - 0 +27.2 +22.6 +3.3
  Thu, Nov 13 7 Purdue L 80-87 50%     2 - 1 +10.5 +14.4 -3.9
  Wed, Nov 19 12 Illinois W 90-86 48%     3 - 1 +21.9 +13.4 +8.1
  Mon, Nov 24 5 Gonzaga L 85-95 34%     3 - 2 +11.8 +14.9 -2.3
  Tue, Nov 25 139 UNLV W 115-76 93%     4 - 2 +40.3 +29.9 +6.1
  Wed, Nov 26 95 Maryland W 105-72 86%     5 - 2 +38.5 +26.2 +9.6
  Wed, Dec 3 37 Clemson W 90-84 78%     6 - 2 +15.4 +19.5 -4.2
  Sun, Dec 7 295 Texas San Antonio W 97-55 99%     7 - 2 +31.8 +11.6 +16.1
  Sat, Dec 13 3 Arizona L 75-96 31%     7 - 3 +1.6 +7.2 -3.9
  Wed, Dec 17 83 South Florida W 104-93 90%     8 - 3 +14.7 +20.4 -7.0
  Sun, Dec 21 155 Kennesaw St. W 101-84 95%    
  Mon, Dec 29 78 Yale W 95-82 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 21 Kentucky W 90-85 68%    
  Tue, Jan 6 10 @Vanderbilt L 88-92 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 40 Texas W 91-83 77%    
  Tue, Jan 13 84 @Mississippi St. W 90-82 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 47 @Oklahoma W 90-87 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 15 Tennessee W 84-81 60%    
  Tue, Jan 27 49 Missouri W 93-84 80%    
  Sun, Feb 1 13 @Florida L 86-89 38%    
  Tue, Feb 3 45 Texas A&M W 95-86 80%    
  Sat, Feb 7 28 @Auburn W 89-88 51%    
  Wed, Feb 11 60 @Mississippi W 85-80 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 86 South Carolina W 89-75 90%    
  Tue, Feb 17 20 Arkansas W 92-87 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 35 @LSU W 87-85 56%    
  Wed, Feb 25 84 Mississippi St. W 93-79 89%    
  Sat, Feb 28 15 @Tennessee L 81-84 40%    
  Tue, Mar 3 19 @Georgia L 95-96 45%    
  Sat, Mar 7 28 Auburn W 91-85 70%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.6 5.6 3.3 1.0 0.2 18.7 1st
2nd 0.2 3.0 6.4 4.5 1.3 0.1 15.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 6.0 4.2 0.9 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.5 5.1 4.7 0.8 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.5 5.3 1.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.5 2.4 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.4 3.4 0.4 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.1 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 1.8 0.2 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.4 5.9 8.7 12.2 15.2 15.4 14.0 11.1 7.0 3.4 1.0 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 97.1% 3.3    2.9 0.4 0.0
15-3 80.8% 5.6    3.9 1.4 0.2
14-4 50.8% 5.6    2.3 2.4 0.8 0.1
13-5 18.8% 2.6    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 10.9 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 52.6% 47.4% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.4% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.0% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 2.1 1.6 3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.1% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.6 1.3 4.0 4.0 1.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 14.0% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 3.2 0.4 2.5 5.9 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.4% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 3.9 0.1 1.1 4.1 5.4 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.2% 100.0% 8.6% 91.3% 4.7 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 5.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.2% 99.9% 6.0% 93.9% 5.6 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.7 3.9 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 8.7% 99.5% 4.6% 94.9% 6.7 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.5%
8-10 5.9% 93.3% 2.1% 91.1% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.4 93.1%
7-11 3.4% 76.1% 1.4% 74.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 0.1 0.8 75.8%
6-12 1.6% 25.8% 0.9% 24.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.2 25.1%
5-13 0.6% 6.5% 0.6% 5.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.9%
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 96.7% 14.0% 82.7% 4.5 5.8 13.0 18.4 17.9 14.9 10.6 5.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.0 0.1 3.3 96.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.0 8.0