Alabama
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +18.2 18
Expected Predictive Rating +18.9 18
Pace 83.0 1
Improvement -2.2 272

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 3 A- B+ A B B+
Defense B 52 A- B+ D B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 263 B+ 65% 41 +1.0 139
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 359 A+ 52% 2 -3.2 328
Three Pointers 55% 2 B- 36% 77 +9.3 5
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.3 29 B+ +5.6 33
1st FG Attempt A- 1.16 21
Second Chance B- 34.0% 80 B+ 1.18 30 B+ 0.40 35
Turnovers A 12.5% 7
Freethrows B- 0.34 86 B 77% 43 B 0.26 50
Total Offense A +13.2 3

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 265 B+ 50% 22 -4.3 49
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 26 B- 35% 80 +1.8 316
Three Pointers 37% 301 B 31% 56 -3.8 38
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.0 35 B+ -5.2 27
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 26
Second Chance B 26.4% 47 B 0.92 39 B+ 0.24 32
Turnovers D 14.3% 326
Freethrows B- 0.27 77 A 67% 8 B 0.18 41
Total Defense B +5.0 52

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.1 3 17.7 253
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 36 0.14 69
Improvement -2.4 #304 +0.2 #181

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 2% 0%
Top 2 Seed 6% 9% 2%
Top 4 Seed 46% 56% 29%
Top 6 Seed 89% 95% 80%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 4.7 4.3 5.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 9% 14% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round87% 90% 82%
Sweet Sixteen45% 50% 38%
Elite Eight18% 20% 15%
Final Four7% 8% 6%
Championship Game3% 3% 2%
National Champion1% 1% 1%

Next Game: Arkansas (Home) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 28 - 116 - 10
Quad 35 - 021 - 10
Quad 42 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 300 North Dakota W 91 - 62 99% +17  99% 1 - 0 A +18 C+ +3 B F C A+ +13 C A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 20 @St. John's W 103 - 96 40% +4  80% 2 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +21 A A A+ B +5 B- B+ C+
 Thu, Nov 13 8 Purdue L 80 - 87 50% -2  18% 2 - 1 B+ +11 A +13 A D A+ C -1 B+ B B-
 Wed, Nov 19 6 Illinois W 90 - 86 36% +1  46% 3 - 1 A+ +26 A +12 A+ A+ C A+ +13 A- A C+
 Mon, Nov 24 11 Gonzaga L 85 - 95 46% -1  40% 3 - 2 B +9 A +11 A+ B- A- C -1 A F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 123 UNLV W 115 - 76 92% +16  95% 4 - 2 A+ +42 A+ +26 A+ A+ B+ A +11 B+ A+ F+
 Wed, Nov 26 107 Maryland W 105 - 72 90% +20  99% 5 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +23 A+ A+ B- A +11 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 37 Clemson W 90 - 84 76% +9  92% 6 - 2 A- +17 A+ +20 A+ A A+ C- -3 B- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 334 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 55 99% +27  97% 7 - 2 A+ +28 B- +4 F+ C+ A+ A+ +19 A- A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 2 Arizona L 75 - 96 29% -7  28% 7 - 3 C+ +3 B +6 A+ F C- C- -2 B A F
 Wed, Dec 17 61 South Florida W 104 - 93 88% +8  89% 8 - 3 A- +17 A+ +19 B+ A B- C- -4 A- F B+
 Sun, Dec 21 169 Kennesaw St. W 92 - 81 95% +18  98% 9 - 3 B +11 B- +5 D+ B- A+ B +4 B D- B+
 Mon, Dec 29 84 Yale W 102 - 78 90% +19  96% 10 - 3 A+ +28 A+ +25 B+ A+ A+ B- +3 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 24 Kentucky W 89 - 74 68% +11  91% 11 - 3 1 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +17 A+ A A- A +11 A+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 7 12 @Vanderbilt L 90 - 96 35% -5  10% 11 - 4 1 - 1 A- +16 A- +10 D- A+ A- B+ +7 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 27 Texas L 88 - 92 71% -5  10% 11 - 5 1 - 2 B +8 A +13 A- B- A+ D+ -4 B C+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 75 @Mississippi St. W 97 - 82 76% +5  52% 12 - 5 2 - 2 A+ +26 A+ +19 A- A- A+ B +5 A+ B F
 Sat, Jan 17 51 @Oklahoma W 83 - 81 66% -2  29% 13 - 5 3 - 2 A- +16 B- +5 C+ B- B- A +11 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 19 Tennessee L 73 - 79 62% +1  49% 13 - 6 3 - 3 B +9 B+ +9 C+ A- A+ C +0 C A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 27 54 Missouri W 90 - 64 84% +12  87% 14 - 6 4 - 3 A+ +34 A +11 B+ C+ A+ A+ +21 A+ B C
 Sun, Feb 1 4 @Florida L 77 - 100 22% -11  6% 14 - 7 4 - 4 C+ +3 B+ +8 A+ B+ F C- -3 C+ B+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 33 Texas A&M W 100 - 97 74% +0  45% 15 - 7 5 - 4 A- +14 A+ +18 B+ C+ A+ D+ -4 C+ B+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 30 @Auburn W 96 - 92 51% -2  38% 16 - 7 6 - 4 A +22 A+ +20 A+ A+ C C+ +2 C+ B+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 73 @Mississippi W 93 - 74 76% +4  56% 17 - 7 7 - 4 A+ +30 A+ +18 C- A+ A+ A +10 B A D
 Sat, Feb 14 94 South Carolina W 89 - 75 92% +8  89% 18 - 7 8 - 4 A- +16 B+ +8 A+ D- C B+ +7 A- A+ F+
 Tue, Feb 17 17 Arkansas W 95 - 92 61%
 Wed, Feb 18 17 Arkansas W 95 - 92 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 56 @LSU W 89 - 84 69%
 Wed, Feb 25 75 Mississippi St. W 93 - 79 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 19 @Tennessee L 81 - 84 40%
 Tue, Mar 3 39 @Georgia W 96 - 94 56%
 Sat, Mar 7 30 Auburn W 93 - 87 72%
Totals 22 - 10 12 - 7 +18 A +13 A+ B+ B+ B +5 B- B B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A B+ A+ B- B+ 36% 15% 55% B+ A- B- B+ B+ A B- B B B B+ B- B B+ 36% 27% 37% B+ A- B B B+ D B- A B
1.27 65% 52% 36% +6 +1 1.16 34% 1.2 .40 12% .34 77% .26 1.01 50% 35% 31% -5 -1 0.89 26% 0.9 .24 14% .27 67% .22
Nov
3		 North Dakota C+ A+ A+ D- B 44% 6% 50% B B C+ F F C A- A- A+ A+ C- C A- C- 44% 25% 32% B+ C A+ A+ A+ D+ A- A+ A+
1.23 78% 67% 31% +8 +2 1.23 37% 0.7 .27 20% .46 78% .36 0.84 56% 36% 28% -4 0 0.93 17% 0.1 .02 14% .27 53% .14
Nov
8		 St. John's A+ A- A+ D A 39% 17% 43% B- A C+ A+ A A+ C F D+ B C F A C+ 48% 26% 26% A- B- A+ F B+ C+ F B F
1.22 63% 50% 30% +1 0 1.06 30% 1.4 .41 8% .28 64% .18 1.14 57% 47% 27% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.5 .38 14% .55 70% .39
Nov
13		 Purdue A B- D A- A- 21% 15% 65% B A D D+ D A+ D A+ C- C B B- F B 32% 34% 34% A B+ F A+ B B- F B F+
1.16 62% 33% 38% +4 0 1.08 18% 1.0 .18 9% .16 80% .13 1.26 59% 39% 44% +6 -2 1.09 48% 0.8 .40 15% .39 70% .27
Nov
19		 Illinois A A- B B+ A+ 26% 19% 56% A- A+ B A+ A+ C A+ B A+ A+ C A+ D+ A- 37% 18% 45% B A- A B- A C+ C- A+ A-
1.14 64% 40% 37% +4 -1 1.09 28% 1.4 .39 13% .33 74% .25 1.09 64% 18% 37% +1 0 1.03 33% 1.1 .38 14% .33 59% .19
Nov
24		 Gonzaga A A+ B- C+ A+ 36% 17% 47% A- A+ A D B- A- A- F B- C B F A+ A 35% 31% 35% B A F D+ F C+ F D+ F
1.11 71% 40% 33% +5 0 1.12 32% 0.8 .24 17% .36 61% .22 1.24 58% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 47% 1.3 .58 14% .40 73% .29
Nov
25		 UNLV A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 9% 51% B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A A F C+ B+ 38% 20% 42% C+ B+ A+ A- A+ F+ A+ A+ A+
1.46 64% 80% 43% +13 +2 1.31 44% 1.1 .50 15% .53 83% .44 0.97 46% 54% 33% -2 0 0.98 23% 0.7 .16 13% .20 50% .10
Nov
26		 Maryland A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 7% 50% A A+ A A A+ B- C A+ B A A+ F D B+ 39% 22% 39% C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+
1.37 84% 0% 45% +17 +2 1.40 39% 1.3 .50 16% .28 83% .23 0.94 32% 50% 36% -6 0 0.89 25% 0.6 .16 12% .16 64% .10
Dec
3		 Clemson A+ C+ A+ B A+ 31% 14% 55% B+ A+ A+ B+ A A+ A+ D A+ C- B+ F A+ B 57% 16% 27% D B- F A+ A+ F F D- F
1.25 56% 71% 36% +5 0 1.14 34% 1.1 .37 12% .49 71% .35 1.17 53% 78% 27% +1 +2 1.07 41% 0.3 .14 10% .43 79% .34
Dec
7		 Texas San Antonio B- A A+ F F 30% 6% 64% B- F+ C B- C+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ A C A+ A- 26% 20% 54% B A- A+ B A A+ C A+ A
1.25 70% 50% 23% -6 +1 0.93 37% 1.2 .43 6% .28 85% .23 0.71 43% 36% 24% -12 -1 0.76 19% 0.8 .15 23% .27 44% .12
Dec
13		 Arizona B B A+ A A+ 26% 15% 58% A A+ F F+ F C- B B B+ C- A- D- F+ B+ 40% 26% 34% C B D+ A+ A F A B A+
0.99 57% 50% 39% +6 0 1.13 9% 0.7 .06 20% .29 72% .21 1.26 54% 47% 41% +4 -1 1.09 43% 0.7 .29 5% .28 70% .19
Dec
17		 South Florida A+ F A+ A A- 29% 22% 49% C B+ A+ D+ A B- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F B- B+ 38% 15% 47% A- A- F C+ F B+ F F+ F
1.32 38% 67% 41% +5 -1 1.11 49% 0.9 .44 18% .54 83% .45 1.18 38% 50% 31% -8 +1 0.87 50% 1.2 .58 19% .53 79% .42
Dec
21		 Kennesaw St. B- C+ D F+ D+ 40% 14% 46% C+ D+ C B+ B- A+ F B D- B C- C A- C+ 30% 33% 37% A+ B C F D- B+ A- F B-
1.17 58% 33% 30% -4 +1 0.97 30% 1.2 .34 10% .33 78% .25 1.03 59% 37% 29% -3 -2 0.91 35% 1.2 .42 20% .29 78% .22
Dec
29		 Yale A+ C- A A- B 23% 3% 73% B+ B+ A+ B- A+ A+ C- B C B- A+ D D+ A+ 40% 21% 40% C+ A+ D+ F F D- F B F+
1.48 57% 50% 39% +5 +1 1.15 47% 1.1 .51 7% .25 75% .19 1.13 33% 45% 38% -6 0 0.91 36% 1.4 .51 12% .43 73% .31
Jan
3		 Kentucky A+ C+ A+ A- A 38% 5% 57% A+ A+ A B+ A A- D+ B- C- A D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 26% 36% B+ A+ A- D+ B- B F B F
1.24 57% 67% 38% +4 +2 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 14% .26 75% .19 1.03 70% 21% 21% -7 -1 0.87 31% 1.3 .38 17% .49 69% .34
Jan
7		 Vanderbilt A- C A+ F F+ 26% 16% 57% B- D- A A+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ B+ B A- C+ A+ 36% 30% 34% A A+ A+ F B- D- F A F
1.09 56% 50% 17% -13 0 0.75 38% 1.3 .48 16% .54 76% .41 1.16 58% 31% 33% -2 -1 0.94 21% 1.8 .36 10% .67 70% .47
Jan
10		 Texas A F+ C- A+ B+ 41% 17% 43% B+ A- B+ C- B- A+ A C- A- D+ A A+ F B- 31% 27% 42% A B D+ B+ C+ F F A D
1.23 45% 33% 48% +3 +1 1.09 30% 0.9 .28 10% .42 70% .29 1.29 50% 29% 45% +2 -1 1.04 42% 1.1 .47 10% .50 69% .34
Jan
13		 Mississippi St. A+ F+ B A- B+ 33% 12% 55% A A- C+ A+ A- A+ A+ A A+ B D+ A+ B- A+ 25% 36% 39% A+ A+ B- B- B F D- C D
1.26 47% 43% 38% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.4 .37 7% .46 82% .38 1.07 65% 21% 31% -6 -3 0.84 29% 0.9 .27 5% .34 68% .23
Jan
17		 Oklahoma B- A D+ D- C 33% 17% 50% B C+ B- C+ B- B- A+ F B- A A B+ A A+ 33% 30% 37% A+ A+ D+ A- B- D+ C- F F+
1.11 67% 33% 30% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.1 .36 15% .41 58% .23 1.08 47% 35% 29% -7 -2 0.84 37% 1.1 .41 12% .33 86% .29
Jan
24		 Tennessee B+ A- B F C+ 29% 20% 51% C- C+ C+ A+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ C C- F+ D+ D+ 33% 35% 33% A+ C A A+ A+ D- F+ B- D
1.09 64% 40% 24% -5 -1 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 10% .40 71% .28 1.18 63% 47% 38% +6 -2 1.10 38% 0.7 .27 15% .44 68% .30
Jan
27		 Missouri A C- A+ B- B- 30% 7% 63% A B+ D- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 43% 20% 37% B- A+ B C+ B C C A+ A+
1.21 53% 50% 36% +1 +1 1.07 22% 1.3 .27 9% .39 88% .34 0.86 52% 18% 20% -14 0 0.74 33% 1.1 .37 18% .38 35% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Florida B+ C+ F A+ A+ 27% 16% 56% B A+ B- A+ B+ F D C D C- D- A+ A- C+ 63% 20% 17% C C+ B+ C+ B+ F C+ A- B
1.00 53% 22% 42% +3 0 1.07 24% 1.0 .24 23% .22 69% .15 1.29 71% 15% 27% +2 +2 1.09 38% 1.0 .38 3% .35 65% .23
Feb
4		 Texas A&M A+ A+ A+ D A- 22% 8% 70% B- B+ C B C+ A+ A+ D A+ D+ D+ A+ F C- 36% 16% 48% A C+ A+ F B+ F F+ B D
1.28 85% 60% 31% +4 0 1.12 30% 1.0 .30 8% .44 69% .30 1.24 64% 30% 41% +6 0 1.15 14% 1.8 .25 8% .39 71% .28
Feb
7		 Auburn A+ B+ D A+ A+ 44% 17% 39% B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ F+ B- B- 43% 14% 43% C- C+ B- B+ B+ F A C- A-
1.29 63% 33% 48% +9 +1 1.22 25% 1.9 .46 19% .38 87% .33 1.23 64% 50% 32% +3 +1 1.10 38% 0.9 .35 7% .32 77% .24
Feb
11		 Mississippi A+ F F C D+ 25% 5% 70% A- C- C- A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A D A C- B 27% 40% 33% B B A+ B- A D A+ A+ A+
1.26 43% 0% 33% -6 +1 0.91 27% 1.8 .49 8% .38 92% .35 1.00 69% 29% 35% 0 -3 0.95 21% 1.0 .21 11% .20 62% .12
Feb
14		 South Carolina B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 34% 9% 57% A- A+ D F+ D- C A+ C A+ B+ C+ D A+ A 35% 21% 44% C+ A- A+ C+ A+ F+ B+ F B-
1.18 56% 60% 43% +9 +1 1.23 24% 0.8 .18 16% .42 70% .30 0.99 59% 46% 22% -6 0 0.90 10% 1.0 .10 11% .27 89% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.1 3.3 9.2 1st
2nd 0.0 2.2 17.2 12.6 1.5 33.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 10.0 9.4 0.1 19.9 3rd
4th 0.0 3.7 11.7 1.3 16.8 4th
5th 0.6 7.0 2.4 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 3.4 0.1 5.8 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 0.6 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.9 15.1 26.4 28.8 17.8 4.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 69.3% 3.3    1.5 1.8
14-4 28.6% 5.1    0.7 3.0 1.3 0.1
13-5 2.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 2.2 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 4.8% 100.0% 19.7% 80.3% 2.6 0.6 1.6 1.7 0.7 0.1 100.0%
14-4 17.8% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 3.4 0.4 2.3 6.7 6.0 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 28.8% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.3 0.1 0.8 5.7 10.2 8.8 2.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 26.4% 100.0% 8.9% 91.1% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.4 9.8 7.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.1% 99.9% 5.3% 94.5% 5.9 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.8 5.7 3.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 5.9% 99.5% 4.3% 95.2% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
9-9 1.2% 96.1% 1.3% 94.8% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.0%
8-10 0.1% 80.0% 80.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 11.1% 88.8% 4.7 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 1.7 40.2 52.4 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 100.0% 2.4 10.1 43.3 39.6 6.5 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 2.7 8.5 30.0 43.3 16.2 2.0