Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.5 #28
Expected Predictive Rating +16.5 #28
Pace 69.6 #160
Improvement +1.9 #105

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #14 B+ B+ B+ A+ B-
Defense #57 C+ C+ B- B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #90 1.30 #49 +4.9 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #290 0.90 #34 -0.8 #224
Three Pointers 43% #147 1.07 #105 +2.0 #111
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #38 +6.1 #38
Freethrows 0.41 #2 75% #86 0.31 #2
Second Chance 38.9% #13 1.05 #142 0.41 #33
Turnovers 13.6% #29
Total Offense +10.6 #14

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #270 1.05 #50 +3.7 #65
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #107 0.80 #267 -1.2 #281
Three Pointers 42% #148 1.02 #180 -0.5 #208
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #114 +1.9 #114
Freethrows 0.27 #81 73% #223 0.20 #99
Second Chance 28.6% #98 1.00 #129 0.28 #107
Turnovers 18.9% #59
Total Defense +4.9 #57

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #65 -0.9% #97
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.9% #43 -2.8% #122
Possession Length 16.1 #65 18.3 #321
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #39 0.14 #83
Improvement -0.5 #205 +2.3 #59

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 9.7% 14.2% 4.5%
Top 6 Seed 41.3% 53.7% 26.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.0% 97.7% 89.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.7% 97.5% 89.3%
Average Seed 6.9 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 99.2% 99.9% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 93.7% 74.9%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four5.1% 2.3% 8.5%
First Round91.9% 96.9% 86.0%
Second Round60.7% 67.4% 53.0%
Sweet Sixteen21.7% 25.6% 17.2%
Elite Eight7.7% 9.3% 6.0%
Final Four2.7% 3.2% 2.1%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.8%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Alabama (Home) - 53.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 11
Quad 25 - 212 - 13
Quad 32 - 014 - 13
Quad 46 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 236 Bethune-Cookman W 95 - 90 OT 97% +1  1 - 0 -2 +8 C- B B- -11 F B C-
 Thu, Nov 6 201 Merrimack W 95 - 57 96% +18  2 - 0 +32 +25 B A+ A+ +9 A B- C
 Tue, Nov 11 200 Wofford W 93 - 62 96% +19  3 - 0 +25 +14 B A+ C +11 B+ A- B+
 Sun, Nov 16 6 Houston L 72 - 73 28% -3  3 - 1 +21 +13 C B A+ +7 B A- B
 Wed, Nov 19 337 Jackson St. W 112 - 66 99% +26  4 - 1 +32 +24 A+ C- A- +4 C- D+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 82 Oregon W 84 - 73 80% +3  5 - 1 +18 +14 C A A+ +4 A- F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72 - 102 18% -21  5 - 2 -5 +11 B- C+ A+ -16 B- F D
 Wed, Nov 26 19 St. John's W 85 - 74 42% +0  6 - 2 +29 +25 A+ A+ A- +4 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 23 North Carolina St. W 83 - 73 58% +5  7 - 2 +23 +15 A+ C F +8 A- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 2 @Arizona L 68 - 97 14% -15  7 - 3 -2 +5 D- B+ D+ -5 F+ C- B
 Sat, Dec 13 275 Chattanooga W 92 - 78 97% +7  8 - 3 +8 +16 A+ A F -8 C- C- F
 Sat, Dec 20 8 Purdue L 60 - 88 30% -13  8 - 4 -7 -1 C- F+ B -8 D+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 208 Queens W 106 - 65 97% +30  9 - 4 +35 +20 A+ B- C+ +13 A+ C B
 Sat, Jan 3 34 @Georgia L 100 - 104 OT 44% -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +13 +19 A- B- A- -6 D- B- C-
 Tue, Jan 6 27 Texas A&M L 88 - 90 61% +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +11 +17 C A+ B+ -6 D- F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 22 Arkansas W 95 - 73 58% +15  10 - 6 1 - 2 +35 +23 A+ A+ A +12 A A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 54 @Missouri L 74 - 84 59% -4  10 - 7 1 - 3 +3 +8 C- A- B- -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 91 South Carolina W 71 - 67 87% +5  11 - 7 2 - 3 +7 -0 D D- C +7 B+ C A+
 Tue, Jan 20 59 @Mississippi W 78 - 66 62% +5  12 - 7 3 - 3 +24 +17 D+ A+ A+ +8 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 5 @Florida W 76 - 67 19% +8  13 - 7 4 - 3 +34 +21 A+ C+ B+ +13 A- A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 31 Texas W 88 - 82 65% -3  14 - 7 5 - 3 +18 +26 A+ C A+ -7 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 18 @Tennessee L 69 - 77 31% -8  14 - 8 5 - 4 +13 +8 D+ A B+ +4 B A- A-
 Sat, Feb 7 20 Alabama W 89 - 88 54%
 Tue, Feb 10 12 Vanderbilt L 81 - 82 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 22 @Arkansas L 83 - 87 35%
 Wed, Feb 18 73 @Mississippi St. W 80 - 75 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 26 Kentucky W 79 - 76 60%
 Tue, Feb 24 55 @Oklahoma W 81 - 78 60%
 Sat, Feb 28 59 Mississippi W 79 - 70 80%
 Tue, Mar 3 49 LSU W 83 - 76 76%
 Sat, Mar 7 20 @Alabama L 86 - 91 32%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 8 +16 +11 B+ B+ B+ +5 C+ C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 2.7 0.4 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.2 1.5 0.1 7.9 3rd
4th 0.2 4.8 5.0 0.2 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 8.5 1.4 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.3 6.8 6.7 0.1 13.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 9.4 1.5 13.5 7th
8th 1.0 7.3 4.7 0.1 13.1 8th
9th 0.2 3.6 6.5 1.0 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.2 1.9 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.1 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.3 12th
13th 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.6 10.4 18.6 23.7 22.8 13.7 5.2 0.9 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 54.1% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 14.1% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.9% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.2% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 4.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.7% 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 5.2 0.0 0.9 2.8 4.6 3.8 1.3 0.2 100.0%
11-7 22.8% 99.9% 5.9% 94.0% 6.1 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.4 8.3 6.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 23.7% 99.6% 3.6% 95.9% 7.0 0.1 0.2 2.1 5.0 8.2 5.9 1.9 0.3 0.1 99.5%
9-9 18.6% 96.0% 3.0% 93.0% 8.4 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.1 4.8 3.0 0.8 0.8 95.8%
8-10 10.4% 80.3% 1.2% 79.2% 10.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.7 3.4 0.1 2.0 80.1%
7-11 3.6% 39.2% 0.8% 38.4% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.1 2.2 38.7%
6-12 0.9% 7.8% 1.1% 6.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.7%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.0% 4.9% 89.0% 6.9 6.0 93.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 36.7 50.0 13.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 3.1 19.4 54.8 19.4 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 3.2 4.1 16.3 40.8 30.6 8.2