Preseason Rankings
Auburn
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.0#22
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#132
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.2% 6.3% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 14.9% 15.0% 1.6%
Top 4 Seed 34.5% 34.9% 8.4%
Top 6 Seed 50.2% 50.6% 15.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 70.8% 71.3% 31.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.5% 69.0% 31.3%
Average Seed 5.1 5.1 7.0
.500 or above 76.6% 77.2% 35.8%
.500 or above in Conference 66.2% 66.6% 34.9%
Conference Champion 8.3% 8.4% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 3.0% 10.3%
First Four5.3% 5.3% 6.8%
First Round68.4% 68.9% 29.1%
Second Round54.6% 55.1% 19.7%
Sweet Sixteen29.9% 30.2% 7.8%
Elite Eight14.3% 14.5% 3.2%
Final Four6.7% 6.8% 1.3%
Championship Game2.9% 2.9% 0.3%
National Champion1.3% 1.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 11
Quad 25 - 212 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 246   Bethune-Cookman W 86-62 99%    
  Nov 06, 2025 257   Merrimack W 78-54 99%    
  Nov 11, 2025 206   Wofford W 81-59 98%    
  Nov 16, 2025 1   Houston L 61-70 22%    
  Nov 19, 2025 238   Jackson St. W 85-62 98%    
  Nov 24, 2025 28   Oregon W 74-72 56%    
  Nov 25, 2025 6   Michigan L 74-77 38%    
  Dec 03, 2025 31   North Carolina St. W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 06, 2025 10   @ Arizona L 75-80 33%    
  Dec 13, 2025 125   Chattanooga W 81-67 88%    
  Dec 20, 2025 2   Purdue L 69-77 26%    
  Dec 29, 2025 245   Queens W 88-64 98%    
  Jan 03, 2026 51   @ Georgia W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 06, 2026 35   Texas A&M W 75-69 69%    
  Jan 10, 2026 17   Arkansas W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 14, 2026 37   @ Missouri L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 17, 2026 70   South Carolina W 75-64 81%    
  Jan 20, 2026 30   @ Mississippi L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 24, 2026 5   @ Florida L 73-81 25%    
  Jan 28, 2026 36   Texas W 76-70 68%    
  Jan 31, 2026 16   @ Tennessee L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 07, 2026 18   Alabama W 84-82 58%    
  Feb 10, 2026 41   Vanderbilt W 80-73 71%    
  Feb 14, 2026 17   @ Arkansas L 73-77 38%    
  Feb 18, 2026 33   @ Mississippi St. L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 21, 2026 7   Kentucky L 77-78 49%    
  Feb 24, 2026 47   @ Oklahoma W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 28, 2026 30   Mississippi W 76-71 66%    
  Mar 03, 2026 52   LSU W 78-69 76%    
  Mar 07, 2026 18   @ Alabama L 81-85 39%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 8.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.7 3.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.7 1.2 0.1 8.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.0 1.5 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.2 2.4 0.3 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.4 0.6 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.7 1.1 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.5 2.0 0.2 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.0 0.0 5.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.7 0.2 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 3.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.6 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.4 6.4 8.1 9.7 10.9 11.7 11.2 10.3 8.3 6.6 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 98.6% 0.8    0.8 0.1
16-2 84.0% 1.9    1.5 0.5
15-3 62.5% 2.5    1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 31.4% 2.1    0.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.1% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.5 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 59.7% 40.3% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.9% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.3% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.0% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.9 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.6% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.4 1.5 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.3% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 3.1 0.7 2.0 2.7 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 10.3% 99.8% 10.6% 89.3% 4.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 11.2% 99.2% 6.7% 92.4% 5.1 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.3 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.1%
10-8 11.7% 94.7% 2.7% 92.0% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.6 94.6%
9-9 10.9% 81.8% 1.8% 80.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 2.0 81.5%
8-10 9.7% 52.1% 0.9% 51.2% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.1 4.6 51.6%
7-11 8.1% 22.8% 0.5% 22.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.1 6.2 22.5%
6-12 6.4% 5.7% 0.4% 5.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 5.3%
5-13 4.4% 1.3% 1.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 1.3%
4-14 2.7% 2.7
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 70.8% 7.4% 63.4% 5.1 6.2 8.6 10.0 9.7 8.6 7.1 5.3 3.9 3.6 3.9 3.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.2 68.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0