Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 #155
Expected Predictive Rating +1.0 #143
Pace 61.5 #347
Improvement +0.8 #146

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #102 B C D+ B B
Defense #264 C C D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #146 1.25 #80 +2.4 #101
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #317 0.69 #292 -3.1 #324
Three Pointers 47% #62 1.12 #44 +5.2 #35
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #58 +4.6 #59
Freethrows 0.36 #41 71% #214 0.25 #64
Second Chance 34.7% #72 0.91 #325 0.31 #165
Turnovers 18.7% #292
Total Offense +2.7 #102

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.19 #221 -0.2 #182
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #183 0.78 #216 -0.1 #192
Three Pointers 42% #156 1.00 #156 +0.0 #182
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #189 -0.3 #190
Freethrows 0.33 #256 70% #68 0.23 #225
Second Chance 30.0% #155 1.09 #274 0.33 #215
Turnovers 15.1% #296
Total Defense -2.8 #264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #61 0.0% #163
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.0% #70 0.7% #199
Possession Length 18.5 #304 18.0 #300
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #221 0.16 #157
Improvement +1.0 #130 -0.2 #204

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.2% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 68.6% 90.7% 63.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.7% 99.7% 94.7%
Conference Champion 2.8% 8.3% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.3% 3.2% 2.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Memphis (Away) - 19.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 34 - 65 - 14
Quad 411 - 116 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 192 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 68% +9  1 - 0 +11 +18 A- A+ B+ -7 C C- F+
 Fri, Nov 7 319 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 88% +10  2 - 0 -8 -6 C+ A- F -2 C F A
 Tue, Nov 11 111 Davidson L 55 - 62 48% -8  2 - 1 -7 -6 D- D- B- -2 D+ A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 58 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 13% -8  2 - 2 +4 +14 B- B+ A+ -10 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 172 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 41% +2  2 - 3 +0 +8 D+ A D- -9 D- D C-
 Thu, Nov 27 89 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 28% -8  2 - 4 -4 +6 A+ F F+ -10 D+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 137 Richmond L 66 - 71 44% -8  2 - 5 -4 -3 C F B+ -1 C C C+
 Tue, Dec 2 286 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 83% +17  3 - 5 +7 +1 A B+ F +7 A B C
 Sun, Dec 7 32 Utah St. L 53 - 79 14% -11  3 - 6 -15 -10 F A+ F -6 C+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 151 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 36% -3  3 - 7 -4 -2 C F+ D -2 D- D+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 315 Lafayette W 81 - 67 87% +11  4 - 7 +2 +18 A+ C- B+ -14 D+ F D+
 Sun, Dec 21 134 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 55% -2  5 - 7 +11 +14 B D- B+ -4 D A+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 143 Temple L 73 - 76 57% -5  5 - 8 0 - 1 -5 +0 C- C C- -5 F+ B- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 98 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 42% -4  6 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +26 B A+ A -20 D- F C
 Wed, Jan 7 343 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 79% +9  7 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +4 D+ C+ D+ +5 B- C F
 Sun, Jan 11 227 @Rice W 74 - 73 52% +5  8 - 8 3 - 1 +0 +5 A+ F D- -5 B- B D
 Wed, Jan 14 68 Tulsa L 74 - 86 30% -8  8 - 9 3 - 2 -7 +3 B+ F A- -10 F+ A B
 Sun, Jan 18 249 @East Carolina W 73 - 70 57% +7  9 - 9 4 - 2 +1 +6 A+ C F -5 C C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 173 Tulane W 73 - 70 64% +5  10 - 9 5 - 2 -1 -0 A C+ F -1 C A- C-
 Wed, Jan 28 143 @Temple W 80 - 76 OT 34% -2  11 - 9 6 - 2 +8 +24 A A+ B -16 C+ F F+
 Fri, Jan 30 227 Rice W 80 - 70 74% +6  12 - 9 7 - 2 +3 +14 A+ D+ C- -9 A+ F D
 Wed, Feb 4 98 @Wichita St. L 64 - 74 22% -5  12 - 10 7 - 3 -2 -1 B- F F -1 D- A+ F
 Sun, Feb 8 91 @Memphis L 67 - 76 20%
 Sun, Feb 15 343 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 66 91%
 Wed, Feb 18 68 @Tulsa L 72 - 83 14%
 Sat, Feb 21 249 East Carolina W 75 - 67 77%
 Wed, Feb 25 150 North Texas W 66 - 64 59%
 Sun, Mar 1 109 @Florida Atlantic L 71 - 78 26%
 Wed, Mar 4 121 UAB W 76 - 75 52%
 Sun, Mar 8 71 @South Florida L 73 - 84 15%
Totals 16 - 14 11 - 7 +0 +3 B C D+ -3 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 2.8 1st
2nd 1.0 6.3 2.5 0.1 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 7.3 7.8 0.5 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 3.5 13.5 1.7 18.7 4th
5th 0.5 10.5 6.4 0.1 17.4 5th
6th 0.0 3.5 10.8 0.7 15.1 6th
7th 0.5 7.1 3.9 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 2.0 4.4 0.3 6.8 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 0.3 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.3 4.0 15.8 29.4 28.8 16.3 4.6 0.7 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 83.6% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 34.5% 1.6    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1
12-6 3.1% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.7% 4.1% 4.1% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 4.6% 6.3% 6.3% 12.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.4
12-6 16.3% 4.2% 4.2% 12.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 15.7
11-7 28.8% 2.6% 2.6% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 28.0
10-8 29.4% 1.3% 1.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 29.0
9-9 15.8% 0.6% 0.6% 14.4 0.1 0.0 15.7
8-10 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 3.9
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 13.3 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%