IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+21.0	#9
Expected Predictive Rating	+29.9	#2

Pace	63.7	#313
Improvement	-3.2	#310

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#21	A-	A-	C+	C	B-
Defense	#5	A+	B+	B	C-	C+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	42%	#86	1.34	#23	+5.9	#20
2 Pt. Jumpers	15%	#297	0.93	#18	-0.8	#224
Three Pointers	43%	#146	1.07	#91	+2.2	#103
1st FG Attempt			1.17	#19	+7.4	#19
Freethrows	0.31	#168	71%	#225	0.22	#176
Second Chance	37.6%	#25	1.12	#63	0.42	#25
Turnovers					16.3%	#140
Total Offense					+9.7	#21

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	41%	#128	0.88	#3	+4.5	#48
2 Pt. Jumpers	25%	#55	0.70	#92	-1.0	#271
Three Pointers	35%	#343	0.78	#1	+7.4	#2
1st FG Attempt			0.80	#2	+10.9	#2
Freethrows	0.33	#273	71%	#130	0.24	#254
Second Chance	26.0%	#40	0.89	#33	0.23	#23
Turnovers					20.0%	#36
Total Defense					+11.3	#5

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.9%	#62	-0.8%	#99
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	12.3%	#23	-20.8%	#2
Possession Length	18.1	#263	17.8	#279
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.18	#134	0.10	#17
Improvement	-1.1	#245	-2.1	#294

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	4.9%	5.1%	1.7%
#1 Seed	32.3%	33.2%	16.3%
Top 2 Seed	76.8%	77.8%	58.1%
Top 4 Seed	99.5%	99.6%	98.1%
Top 6 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Average Seed	2.0	1.9	2.4

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	88.4%	89.2%	73.6%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	98.6%	98.7%	96.9%
Sweet Sixteen	72.4%	72.6%	69.2%
Elite Eight	42.7%	43.0%	37.8%
Final Four	22.3%	22.4%	19.0%
Championship Game	10.9%	11.0%	8.1%
National Champion	5.1%	5.2%	4.1%

Next Game: Xavier (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

1 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	5 - 2	5 - 2
Quad 1b	4 - 1	10 - 3
Quad 2	10 - 0	20 - 3
Quad 3	6 - 0	26 - 3
Quad 4	5 - 0	30 - 3

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	334 New Haven	W	79 - 55	100%	+12	1 - 0		+10	+6	C+	B+	D+	+6	C	A+	D-
Fri, Nov 7	314 Umass Lowell	W	110 - 47	99%	+42	2 - 0		+51	+24	A+	A+	C	+22	A+	A+	A+
Mon, Nov 10	182 Columbia	W	89 - 62	98%	+16	3 - 0		+22	+18	A+	B+	A	+6	A+	B	D
Sat, Nov 15	15 BYU	W	86 - 84	60%	+9	4 - 0		+20	+15	A+	A-	F	+5	B-	C	A+
Wed, Nov 19	2 Arizona	L	67 - 71	49%	-4	4 - 1		+17	+12	A	D+	A+	+5	A+	F	C+
Sun, Nov 23	347 Bryant	W	72 - 49	100%	+14	5 - 1		+8	-2	D-	C+	C+	+11	A-	B	A+
Fri, Nov 28	7 Illinois	W	74 - 61	49%	+10	6 - 1		+34	+13	A+	B-	D+	+22	A+	A+	B-
Tue, Dec 2	12 @Kansas	W	61 - 56	47%	-2	7 - 1		+27	+7	B-	A+	F	+20	A+	A+	B
Fri, Dec 5	313 East Texas A&M	W	83 - 59	99%	+13	8 - 1		+12	+12	C+	C+	A+	+1	C-	A	B-
Tue, Dec 9	5 Florida	W	77 - 73	47%	+2	9 - 1		+26	+18	A+	B+	B+	+8	B	A+	B-
Fri, Dec 12	31 Texas	W	71 - 63	81%	+6	10 - 1		+20	+4	A+	B-	F	+16	A+	A-	B+
Tue, Dec 16	66 Butler	W	79 - 60	92%	+10	11 - 1	1 - 0	+24	+8	B+	A+	F+	+17	A+	A+	C-
Sun, Dec 21	94 @DePaul	W	72 - 54	87%	+5	12 - 1	2 - 0	+27	+7	B-	A+	D+	+20	A+	A+	B-
Wed, Dec 31	84 @Xavier	W	90 - 67	85%	+18	13 - 1	3 - 0	+33	+19	A+	A-	C-	+13	A	A+	B
Sun, Jan 4	95 Marquette	W	73 - 57	95%	+11	14 - 1	4 - 0	+19	+3	D+	B-	A	+16	A+	A+	B-
Wed, Jan 7	67 @Providence	W	103 - 98 OT	82%	-5	15 - 1	5 - 0	+16	+16	A+	C	C+	-0	D+	C	A+
Sat, Jan 10	94 DePaul	W	72 - 60	94%	+11	16 - 1	6 - 0	+15	+9	A	D+	D+	+7	C+	A-	A
Tue, Jan 13	53 @Seton Hall	W	69 - 64	77%	+7	17 - 1	7 - 0	+18	+13	A	A+	D	+6	A	D-	A+
Sat, Jan 17	78 @Georgetown	W	64 - 62	84%	+4	18 - 1	8 - 0	+12	+7	D	B	A+	+5	B+	F	A+
Sat, Jan 24	32 Villanova	W	75 - 67 OT	82%	-2	19 - 1	9 - 0	+19	+14	C	A+	A+	+6	A+	F	B-
Tue, Jan 27	67 Providence	W	87 - 81	92%	+4	20 - 1	10 - 0	+11	+10	B	B-	B-	+1	B+	B-	C+
Sat, Jan 31	58 @Creighton	W	85 - 58	79%	+11	21 - 1	11 - 0	+39	+31	A+	A+	B	+13	A+	C+	B
Tue, Feb 3	84 Xavier	W	82 - 65	95%
Fri, Feb 6	18 @St. John's	W	74 - 73	52%
Wed, Feb 11	66 @Butler	W	79 - 69	82%
Sat, Feb 14	78 Georgetown	W	78 - 61	94%
Wed, Feb 18	58 Creighton	W	80 - 65	92%
Sat, Feb 21	32 @Villanova	W	69 - 65	63%
Wed, Feb 25	18 St. John's	W	77 - 71	72%
Sat, Feb 28	53 Seton Hall	W	72 - 58	90%
Sat, Mar 7	95 @Marquette	W	78 - 66	87%
Totals						28 - 3	18 - 2	+21	+10	A-	A-	C+	+11	A+	B+	B

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big East Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st																0.2	2.0	11.3	28.7	31.1	15.1	88.4	1st
2nd														0.0	0.1	1.1	3.9	5.2	1.0			11.3	2nd
3rd														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0					0.4	3rd
4th																							4th
5th																							5th
6th																							6th
7th																							7th
8th																							8th
9th																							9th
10th																							10th
11th																							11th

Total														0.0	0.2	1.5	6.0	16.5	29.7	31.1	15.1		Total

Big East Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way
20-0	100.0%	15.1	15.1
19-1	100.0%	31.1	31.1
18-2	96.8%	28.7	24.1	4.6
17-3	68.7%	11.3	6.8	4.5	0.1
16-4	33.9%	2.0	0.6	1.2	0.1
15-5	11.9%	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
14-6	0.0%
13-7	0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10

Total	88.4%	88.4	77.7	10.4	0.3

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0	15.1%	100.0%	61.8%	38.2%	1.4	9.7	5.0	0.4															100.0%
19-1	31.1%	100.0%	56.7%	43.3%	1.7	13.2	14.8	2.8	0.2														100.0%
18-2	29.7%	100.0%	53.7%	46.3%	2.0	7.1	15.5	6.4	0.8	0.0													100.0%
17-3	16.5%	100.0%	48.1%	51.9%	2.4	2.0	7.4	5.6	1.4	0.1													100.0%
16-4	6.0%	100.0%	39.3%	60.7%	2.9	0.3	1.6	2.7	1.2	0.2	0.0	0.0											100.0%
15-5	1.5%	100.0%	33.8%	66.2%	3.4	0.0	0.2	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0												100.0%
14-6	0.2%							0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.0%								0.0		0.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	100.0%	53.7%	46.3%	2.0																		100.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3
Win Out	9.3%	100.0%	1.3	71.1	28.1	0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	2.9%	100.0%	1.5	52.7	42.5	4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	1.8%	100.0%	1.5	57.1	36.4	6.5