Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.1#6
Expected Predictive Rating+26.7#5
Pace63.5#326
Improvement-0.7#236

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#14
First Shot+8.7#14
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#97
Layup/Dunks+8.3#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#220
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#107
Freethrows-1.2#262
Improvement-2.6#344

Defense
Total Defense+11.0#4
First Shot+10.3#7
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#137
Layups/Dunks+4.5#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#5
Freethrows-2.8#330
Improvement+1.9#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.6% 7.0% 2.6%
#1 Seed 33.1% 34.7% 16.3%
Top 2 Seed 66.9% 68.9% 45.5%
Top 4 Seed 94.7% 95.5% 86.7%
Top 6 Seed 99.4% 99.5% 98.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.2 2.2 2.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 73.3% 75.0% 54.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round96.8% 97.0% 94.1%
Sweet Sixteen71.9% 72.5% 64.9%
Elite Eight44.5% 45.3% 35.8%
Final Four23.9% 24.5% 17.4%
Championship Game12.3% 12.7% 8.5%
National Champion5.8% 6.1% 3.6%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 91.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 25 - 2
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 4
Quad 29 - 119 - 4
Quad 35 - 025 - 4
Quad 44 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 337 New Haven W 79-55 99.6%    1 - 0 +10.2 +5.7 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 7 303 Umass Lowell W 110-47 99%     2 - 0 +52.6 +24.7 +23.7
  Mon, Nov 10 128 Columbia W 89-62 97%     3 - 0 +25.8 +19.9 +7.2
  Sat, Nov 15 9 BYU W 86-84 55%     4 - 0 +21.9 +16.7 +5.0
  Wed, Nov 19 3 Arizona L 67-71 56%     4 - 1 +15.6 +10.9 +4.3
  Sun, Nov 23 299 Bryant W 72-49 99%     5 - 1 +12.6 +0.9 +13.5
  Fri, Nov 28 12 Illinois W 74-61 62%     6 - 1 +30.9 +11.5 +20.2
  Tue, Dec 2 17 @Kansas W 61-56 53%     7 - 1 +25.2 +7.9 +17.9
  Fri, Dec 5 298 East Texas A&M W 83-59 99%     8 - 1 +13.7 +12.3 +2.9
  Tue, Dec 9 13 Florida W 77-73 63%     9 - 1 +21.8 +16.4 +5.5
  Fri, Dec 12 40 Texas W 71-63 86%     10 - 1 +17.4 +4.9 +13.0
  Tue, Dec 16 58 Butler W 79-60 91%     11 - 1 1 - 0 +25.6 +7.8 +17.9
  Sun, Dec 21 111 @DePaul W 75-60 91%    
  Wed, Dec 31 101 @Xavier W 77-64 89%    
  Sun, Jan 4 98 Marquette W 80-61 96%    
  Wed, Jan 7 73 @Providence W 82-72 83%    
  Sat, Jan 10 111 DePaul W 78-57 97%    
  Tue, Jan 13 57 @Seton Hall W 70-62 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 90 @Georgetown W 77-65 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 38 Villanova W 73-61 86%    
  Tue, Jan 27 73 Providence W 85-69 93%    
  Sat, Jan 31 39 @Creighton W 72-66 70%    
  Tue, Feb 3 101 Xavier W 80-61 96%    
  Fri, Feb 6 18 @St. John's W 73-72 53%    
  Wed, Feb 11 58 @Butler W 78-70 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 90 Georgetown W 80-62 95%    
  Wed, Feb 18 39 Creighton W 75-63 85%    
  Sat, Feb 21 38 @Villanova W 70-64 70%    
  Wed, Feb 25 18 St. John's W 76-69 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 57 Seton Hall W 73-59 91%    
  Sat, Mar 7 98 @Marquette W 77-64 88%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 3.1 9.2 17.3 20.9 15.6 6.5 73.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.9 5.7 6.1 3.4 0.7 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.7 5.5 9.9 15.6 20.7 21.7 15.6 6.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 6.5    6.5
19-1 100.0% 15.6    15.4 0.2
18-2 96.6% 20.9    19.0 2.0 0.0
17-3 83.5% 17.3    13.2 3.9 0.1
16-4 59.0% 9.2    5.5 3.3 0.4 0.0
15-5 31.6% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 10.5% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
13-7 2.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 73.3% 73.3 60.9 11.2 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 6.5% 100.0% 69.5% 30.5% 1.2 5.0 1.4 0.0 100.0%
19-1 15.6% 100.0% 65.1% 34.9% 1.3 10.5 4.8 0.3 100.0%
18-2 21.7% 100.0% 57.0% 43.0% 1.6 10.1 9.5 1.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 20.7% 100.0% 52.4% 47.6% 2.0 5.5 9.9 4.6 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.6% 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% 2.6 1.6 5.9 6.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.9% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 3.2 0.3 1.9 4.1 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.5% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 3.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 2.7% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 1.1% 99.7% 25.1% 74.6% 5.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-9 0.5% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.2% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 52.1% 47.9% 2.2 33.1 33.8 19.1 8.8 3.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 1.2 81.0 18.8 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 1.3 72.8 27.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.3 67.4 32.1 0.5