Massachusetts
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #172
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #190
Pace 75.1 #35
Improvement -1.6 #255

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #198 C B- D C+ C
Defense #155 C C+ C D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.17 #161 +1.6 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #119 0.75 #187 +0.9 #118
Three Pointers 36% #292 0.98 #234 -3.4 #300
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #194 -0.8 #195
Freethrows 0.34 #75 67% #327 0.23 #148
Second Chance 31.9% #147 1.18 #32 0.38 #60
Turnovers 19.1% #305
Total Offense -1.1 #198

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #147 1.27 #313 -3.1 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #276 0.81 #273 +0.7 #135
Three Pointers 42% #131 0.90 #42 +1.8 #112
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #200 -0.6 #201
Freethrows 0.38 #336 72% #141 0.27 #331
Second Chance 27.2% #63 1.07 #259 0.29 #123
Turnovers 17.1% #172
Total Defense +0.1 #155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #217 1.0% #267
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #190 0.3% #195
Possession Length 16.4 #90 16.7 #98
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #152 0.23 #333
Improvement +2.3 #63 -3.9 #346

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.2% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 95.4% 97.5% 86.1%
.500 or above in Conference 53.5% 60.3% 23.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.9% 3.2% 1.9%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 412 - 418 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 153 Marshall L 72 - 78 57% -5  0 - 1 -9 -13 C F F +5 D- B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 317 Albany W 83 - 62 86% +7  1 - 1 +8 -1 F A+ D- +8 A C A
 Thu, Nov 13 294 Le Moyne W 94 - 80 82% +11  2 - 1 +3 +8 A B D- -6 C C F
 Sun, Nov 16 298 Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 77 83% +12  3 - 1 -4 -4 D- A+ F -1 C C C
 Fri, Nov 21 152 College of Charleston L 65 - 69 45% +1  3 - 2 -4 -6 B- B- F +2 B+ F D
 Sat, Nov 22 257 Green Bay L 75 - 79 67% -4  3 - 3 -9 -2 F A+ D+ -8 C- C+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 185 Oregon St. W 73 - 65 52% +2  4 - 3 +6 +3 D A+ C- +4 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 165 Harvard W 78 - 71 59% +10  5 - 3 +4 +0 A F F+ +3 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 314 Umass Lowell W 80 - 60 85% +8  6 - 3 +8 -5 D+ D D- +11 B- B+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 127 Boston College W 76 - 74 38% +3  7 - 3 +4 +8 C- A+ F -4 A C+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 100 Florida St. W 103 - 95 29% +5  8 - 3 +13 +18 A A+ B+ -6 F+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 146 Kent St. L 59 - 69 54% -5  8 - 4 0 - 1 -12 -16 F F+ F+ +4 B- B+ D+
 Tue, Dec 30 236 @Eastern Michigan L 74 - 80 51% -2  8 - 5 0 - 2 -7 -1 F C+ A+ -6 C C F
 Sat, Jan 3 151 Bowling Green L 100 - 101 OT 56% -0  8 - 6 0 - 3 -4 +8 A+ C+ D+ -11 D- B+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 197 @Ohio L 83 - 86 44% -3  8 - 7 0 - 4 -2 +6 B- F C+ -8 F B C-
 Sat, Jan 10 296 Ball St. W 79 - 71 83% +3  9 - 7 1 - 4 -3 +3 A- F C+ -6 D- C D+
 Tue, Jan 13 273 @Western Michigan W 85 - 82 59% +4  10 - 7 2 - 4 -0 +12 C- A+ C- -12 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 308 @Northern Illinois L 68 - 70 68% -3  10 - 8 2 - 5 -8 -8 F D F +1 B B D-
 Tue, Jan 20 159 Toledo W 84 - 82 58% +2  11 - 8 3 - 5 -1 +6 B- A- C -7 D- B- A
 Fri, Jan 23 203 @Buffalo W 68 - 67 45% +7  12 - 8 4 - 5 +1 -4 F+ B- D- +6 C C+ B-
 Tue, Jan 27 90 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 86 17% +3  12 - 9 4 - 6 +7 +17 B+ A+ B+ -10 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 31 236 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 67 73% +4  13 - 9 5 - 6 -4 +1 D C A+ -5 D+ B B+
 Tue, Feb 3 293 Central Michigan W 80 - 70 82%
 Sat, Feb 7 238 @Coastal Carolina W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 61 @Akron L 77 - 90 11%
 Tue, Feb 17 90 Miami (OH) L 81 - 85 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 203 Buffalo W 82 - 77 67%
 Tue, Feb 24 296 @Ball St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 151 @Bowling Green L 75 - 79 35%
 Tue, Mar 3 197 Ohio W 82 - 77 66%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 -1 -1 C B- D +0 C C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.1 0.3 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.7 3.5 0.2 11.9 4th
5th 1.1 11.1 8.8 0.9 0.0 21.9 5th
6th 0.2 7.2 13.1 1.5 0.0 22.1 6th
7th 3.0 13.5 4.0 0.0 20.4 7th
8th 0.8 7.7 5.2 0.3 14.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.9 3.1 0.3 5.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 0.2 1.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.5 4.4 14.2 27.4 29.8 17.6 5.6 0.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.6% 6.9% 6.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 5.6% 6.7% 6.7% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.2
10-8 17.6% 5.0% 5.0% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 16.7
9-9 29.8% 3.4% 3.4% 14.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 28.8
8-10 27.4% 2.0% 2.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 26.8
7-11 14.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.1 0.0 14.2
6-12 4.4% 4.4
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 14.0 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%