Northeastern
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.4 #256
Expected Predictive Rating -6.9 #276
Pace 73.4 #65
Improvement -2.2 #277

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #152 C+ C- C D+ B-
Defense #329 D- C- C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #32 1.19 #133 +4.5 #42
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #258 0.71 #253 -1.8 #275
Three Pointers 38% #241 1.04 #140 -1.0 #218
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #127 +1.7 #127
Freethrows 0.29 #245 69% #290 0.20 #265
Second Chance 28.3% #249 1.00 #219 0.28 #252
Turnovers 17.3% #202
Total Offense +0.3 #152

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #23 1.24 #287 -5.6 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #213 0.97 #363 -1.7 #306
Three Pointers 36% #324 1.10 #292 +1.3 #127
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #343 -6.0 #343
Freethrows 0.34 #299 74% #283 0.26 #307
Second Chance 34.2% #313 0.98 #109 0.34 #244
Turnovers 17.7% #137
Total Defense -5.8 #329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.9% #64 1.2% #285
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.5% #148 10.3% #341
Possession Length 16.5 #104 16.6 #67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #70 0.17 #169
Improvement +6.0 #4 -8.2 #365

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.1% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 3.4% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.4% 27.8% 53.5%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.7%
First Round0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 15.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 95 - 14
Quad 45 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 286 Boston University L 75 - 76 OT 67% +2  0 - 1 -11 -11 F D+ F +0 B- C- B
 Fri, Nov 7 221 @Colgate W 68 - 65 31% -1  1 - 1 +3 -3 D- F A +6 B B+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 165 @Harvard W 77 - 60 22% +9  2 - 1 +20 +9 C C+ A +11 A B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 212 Vermont L 74 - 85 52% -0  2 - 2 -17 -2 D A F -15 F B- B+
 Thu, Nov 20 214 @Princeton L 57 - 70 30% -10  2 - 3 -13 -13 F D+ F -1 A- F A-
 Sat, Nov 22 113 Duquesne W 93 - 86 20% +3  3 - 3 +10 +6 A+ D- F +3 D A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 75 @Wake Forest L 73 - 86 7% -7  3 - 4 -2 +2 A+ F F -4 F D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 326 @Holy Cross L 59 - 76 57% -13  3 - 5 -24 -14 F D+ F -11 F B D
 Sun, Dec 7 298 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 56 71% +14  4 - 5 +6 -5 C- C- D+ +11 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Dec 20 68 @Syracuse L 83 - 91 7% -7  4 - 6 +3 +16 A B+ B- -13 F C- C
 Mon, Dec 22 119 @Rhode Island L 77 - 85 14% -6  4 - 7 -2 +15 A+ F+ B- -18 F F D-
 Mon, Dec 29 193 @Elon L 91 - 103 27% -5  4 - 8 0 - 1 -11 +13 A+ D D -24 F F B
 Wed, Dec 31 282 @N.C. A&T W 85 - 74 44% +4  5 - 8 1 - 1 +7 +16 B+ B- B -8 C- D+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 213 @Campbell L 82 - 97 30% -8  5 - 9 1 - 2 -15 +4 C+ D+ B -19 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 117 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 30% -1  5 - 10 1 - 3 -9 +2 B- D+ A- -10 C C- B
 Sat, Jan 10 154 Towson L 78 - 87 41% -6  5 - 11 1 - 4 -12 +7 B D A -19 F F A
 Thu, Jan 15 193 Elon W 85 - 78 49% +4  6 - 11 2 - 4 +2 +0 D+ A+ B- +1 D+ B A+
 Mon, Jan 19 207 @Monmouth L 68 - 81 30% -1  6 - 12 2 - 5 -13 -4 C F F -9 D- D F
 Thu, Jan 22 217 Stony Brook L 80 - 95 53% -9  6 - 13 2 - 6 -21 +3 D A+ A -24 F D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 204 @Drexel L 78 - 83 29% -6  6 - 14 2 - 7 -5 +9 C+ B A -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 152 College of Charleston L 84 - 89 39% +2  6 - 15 2 - 8 -8 +11 A+ C- A+ -19 D- C- F
 Thu, Feb 5 126 @Hofstra L 72 - 83 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 217 @Stony Brook L 74 - 79 31%
 Thu, Feb 12 150 William & Mary L 86 - 89 39%
 Thu, Feb 19 204 Drexel W 72 - 71 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 126 Hofstra L 75 - 80 33%
 Thu, Feb 26 150 @William & Mary L 83 - 92 20%
 Sat, Feb 28 252 @Hampton L 73 - 76 39%
 Tue, Mar 3 207 Monmouth W 77 - 76 52%
Totals 9 - 20 5 - 13 -5 +0 C+ C- C -6 D- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 0.5 3.1 9th
10th 0.2 2.7 3.7 0.1 6.7 10th
11th 0.3 3.6 8.3 1.7 13.9 11th
12th 0.3 4.0 14.2 18.1 7.1 0.3 44.0 12th
13th 3.8 10.7 10.2 4.0 0.2 28.9 13th
Total 4.1 14.7 24.6 25.9 18.5 8.6 2.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.8
7-11 8.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 8.4
6-12 18.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.3
5-13 25.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.8
4-14 24.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 24.5
3-15 14.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.7
2-16 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.2%