St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.1#39
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#40
Pace65.3#291
Improvement-2.0#310

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#70
First Shot+2.3#116
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#52
Layup/Dunks+1.8#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#313
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#228
Freethrows+4.4#11
Improvement-2.1#321

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#17
First Shot+4.1#55
After Offensive Rebounds+3.4#14
Layups/Dunks-1.2#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#39
Freethrows+1.6#85
Improvement+0.1#180
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 2.9% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.4% 41.3% 27.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.9% 31.7% 18.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 10.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.1% 98.3%
Conference Champion 11.4% 11.9% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.8% 13.1% 10.3%
First Round33.9% 35.6% 22.4%
Second Round16.6% 17.7% 8.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.3% 4.7% 2.3%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.7% 0.4%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 86.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 25 - 26 - 6
Quad 310 - 116 - 7
Quad 48 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 135 St. Thomas W 84-58 89%     1 - 0 +24.7 +16.8 +10.0
  Fri, Nov 7 227 Chattanooga W 87-66 95%     2 - 0 +14.2 +11.9 +3.1
  Tue, Nov 11 175 Ohio W 90-60 92%     3 - 0 +26.0 +14.5 +11.7
  Fri, Nov 14 146 North Texas W 80-49 90%     4 - 0 +28.8 +13.5 +16.8
  Wed, Nov 19 153 Arkansas St. W 85-72 91%     5 - 0 +10.4 +12.0 -1.4
  Wed, Nov 26 100 Wichita St. W 70-65 75%     6 - 0 +9.9 +1.4 +8.6
  Thu, Nov 27 63 Virginia Tech W 77-66 63%     7 - 0 +19.7 +10.2 +9.9
  Fri, Nov 28 11 Vanderbilt L 71-96 28%     7 - 1 -6.7 +2.1 -8.0
  Sun, Dec 7 127 @Davidson W 70-61 75%     8 - 1 +14.2 +6.1 +8.9
  Sun, Dec 14 47 Boise St. L 67-68 54%     8 - 2 +10.1 +2.9 +7.2
  Fri, Dec 19 117 Florida Atlantic W 79-67 87%    
  Mon, Dec 22 94 Northern Iowa W 68-58 81%    
  Sun, Dec 28 133 @Loyola Marymount W 70-63 75%    
  Tue, Dec 30 292 @Pepperdine W 74-58 93%    
  Fri, Jan 2 243 Portland W 81-61 97%    
  Sun, Jan 4 118 Seattle W 74-62 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 155 Washington St. W 79-64 92%    
  Tue, Jan 13 96 @San Francisco W 71-67 63%    
  Sat, Jan 17 74 @Santa Clara W 73-72 55%    
  Wed, Jan 21 159 Oregon St. W 74-59 91%    
  Sat, Jan 24 243 @Portland W 78-64 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 5 @Gonzaga L 67-80 12%    
  Wed, Feb 4 248 San Diego W 84-64 96%    
  Sat, Feb 7 96 San Francisco W 74-64 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 292 Pepperdine W 77-55 98%    
  Sat, Feb 14 128 @Pacific W 71-64 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 118 @Seattle W 71-65 70%    
  Sat, Feb 21 155 @Washington St. W 76-67 79%    
  Wed, Feb 25 74 Santa Clara W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 5 Gonzaga L 70-77 28%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.6 4.0 0.5 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.6 11.5 17.2 15.8 6.7 55.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.3 6.3 2.2 0.2 19.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.8 4.1 7.7 13.6 18.3 19.8 17.9 11.3 4.0 0.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 100.0% 4.0    2.5 1.6
16-2 40.5% 4.6    1.8 2.8 0.0
15-3 10.6% 1.9    0.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 1.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 5.3 5.8 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 4.0% 92.0% 27.9% 64.1% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 88.9%
16-2 11.3% 77.3% 22.3% 55.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.4 1.3 0.0 2.6 70.8%
15-3 17.9% 59.8% 18.7% 41.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.7 3.8 0.1 7.2 50.5%
14-4 19.8% 40.4% 14.0% 26.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.5 4.5 0.2 11.8 30.7%
13-5 18.3% 26.4% 11.3% 15.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 0.2 13.5 17.0%
12-6 13.6% 15.5% 7.1% 8.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.2 11.5 9.0%
11-7 7.7% 8.2% 5.3% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.5 0.1 7.0 3.1%
10-8 4.1% 5.2% 4.2% 1.0% 11.1 0.2 0.0 3.9 1.0%
9-9 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 1.8 0.4%
8-10 0.7% 3.7% 3.7% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 0.3% 0.3
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 39.4% 13.6% 25.8% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.1 5.2 10.3 15.6 0.7 60.6 29.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 17.5 33.3 29.8 12.3 5.3 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 5.5 1.7 25.9 24.1 29.3 8.6 8.6 1.7