Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -0.9 170
Results Rating -1.3 182
Consistency 0.20 357
Pace 60.1 358
Improvement +6.6 9

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 230 D+ C C+ D+ C+
Defense C+ 138 B- B- D- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 252 C+ 60% 133 -1.0 221
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 285 D+ 35% 276 -2.0 279
Three Pointers 47% 50 D- 30% 331 +0.2 171
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 143 D+ -3.0 288
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 267
Second Chance C 30.4% 179 C 1.02 194 C 0.31 172
Opponents' Steals B- 8.3% 74
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 227
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 125
Freethrows C+ 0.32 137 F 63% 365 D+ 0.20 248
Total Offense C- -2.1 230

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 37% 330 B+ 7.4% 28
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 300 C- 5.7% 234
Three Pointers C 84% 187 C 0.9% 194
Total D+ 50% 296 B+ 4.0% 29

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 246 B 53% 67 -2.8 87
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 220 C+ 37% 147 -0.8 124
Three Pointers 44% 86 C 34% 159 +1.3 252
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 173 B- -2.1 95
1st FG Attempt B- 0.98 114
Second Chance C 29.8% 160 B 0.93 48 B- 0.28 81
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.0% 334
Other Turnovers C- 6.9% 243
Turnovers D- 13.9% 336
Freethrows B- 0.27 89 B- 70% 73 B- 0.19 72
Total Defense C+ +1.2 138

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 175 B- 13.5% 78
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 271 D- 1.5% 343
Three Pointers D- 90% 339 D+ 0.5% 265
Total D+ 60% 281 C 5.4% 182

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.6 357 17.4 212
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 268 0.15 114
Consistency 0.14 320 0.17 360
Improvement +2.9 52 +3.7 30

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 185 174 152
Results Rating Rank 196 187 131
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 16% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round9% 16% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 33 - 64 - 7
Quad 414 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 266 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 58% -12  0% 0 - 1 F -19 D- -6 F C B+ F -14 F C C+
 Sun, Nov 9 352 NC Central W 76 - 54 93% +16  97% 1 - 1 B- +5 C- -2 F A+ A A +8 A A- C-
 Tue, Nov 11 36 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 6% -6  42% 1 - 2 D+ -5 F+ -9 D- B B C+ +1 A+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 16 256 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 55% +5  85% 2 - 2 B- +6 B +7 A C F C -1 D- C B+
 Fri, Nov 21 169 Charlotte W 65 - 63 61% -2  27% 3 - 2 C- -2 C +0 B- C+ D+ C -1 A+ F C-
 Mon, Nov 24 225 Elon L 53 - 88 71% -17  1% 3 - 3 F -42 F -21 F F C+ F -26 B- F F
 Wed, Nov 26 181 @Mercer L 67 - 75 40% +3  72% 3 - 4 D+ -6 C- -1 F+ B A D -6 B F D
 Sun, Nov 30 232 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 50% -8  0% 3 - 5 D- -13 F -15 F D+ C C+ +1 B F B+
 Thu, Dec 11 248 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 54% +9  96% 4 - 5 B +11 D+ -3 C+ B F A+ +15 A B+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 94 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 25% +2  69% 5 - 5 B+ +14 B- +4 A- F A+ A +9 A- A+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 228 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 71% +4  53% 6 - 5 1 - 0 B +11 D+ -4 A F F A+ +16 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Dec 20 296 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 83% -4  16% 6 - 6 1 - 1 F -18 F -13 D- F B+ D -5 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 240 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 52% +13  95% 7 - 6 2 - 1 B- +7 A- +9 C+ A+ D C- -2 F+ A F+
 Sat, Jan 3 186 @Marshall L 81 - 88 42% -8  3% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +2 C+ B- C+ F+ -8 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 296 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 66% -2  10% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -3 F -17 F C- D- A+ +14 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 228 @Coastal Carolina L 62 - 67 49% +5  78% 8 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -6 C+ +2 F+ B+ A F+ -9 F C F+
 Thu, Jan 15 202 James Madison W 80 - 65 67% +11  99% 9 - 8 4 - 3 B +10 A+ +16 A+ A+ B D+ -4 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 240 Old Dominion L 73 - 75 73% -10  0% 9 - 9 4 - 4 D -9 C -0 D+ B+ A- F+ -9 F B- C-
 Thu, Jan 22 301 Louisiana W 72 - 58 83% +1  44% 10 - 9 5 - 4 C+ +3 B +6 A+ C- F C -1 A D- F
 Fri, Jan 23 353 Louisiana Monroe W 59 - 43 93% +8  80% 11 - 9 6 - 4 C -2 F -26 F F C A+ +25 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 29 226 @Southern Miss W 70 - 63 49% +2  68% 12 - 9 7 - 4 B- +6 C +0 D+ F A- B+ +7 B+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 151 @Troy W 66 - 44 33% +9  90% 13 - 9 8 - 4 A+ +25 B- +4 B+ F F+ A+ +25 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 185 South Alabama W 65 - 57 64% +3  79% 14 - 9 9 - 4 C+ +3 C +1 D C+ A+ B +4 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 247 Eastern Michigan W 65 - 60 75% +3  78% 15 - 9 C- -3 D- -6 D+ F A B +4 A+ F F
 Wed, Feb 11 261 @Georgia Southern W 81 - 65 56% +8  98% 16 - 9 10 - 4 B+ +13 B +7 C- C A- A- +7 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 202 @James Madison L 58 - 69 44% -6  5% 16 - 10 10 - 5 D -10 F+ -10 F A F+ C- -2 B- B- F
 Thu, Feb 19 186 Marshall L 93 - 94 65% +6  86% 16 - 11 10 - 6 D+ -6 A+ +17 B+ A+ A+ F -22 F C F
 Sat, Feb 21 261 Georgia Southern W 89 - 74 77% +3  70% 17 - 11 11 - 6 B- +6 B +6 B C B- C -0 C- A+ B-
 Fri, Feb 27 234 @Texas St. L 57 - 60 50% +2  67% 17 - 12 11 - 7 C- -4 F+ -9 F C+ D- B +4 D A+ F+
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1 C- -2 A+ D+ C+ C+ +1 D- F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ D+ D- D+ 36% 28% 47% C+ D+ C C C C+ C+ F D+ C+ B C+ C B- 37% 19% 44% C B- C B B- D- B- B- B-
1.06 60% 35% 30% -3 0 0.96 30% 1.0 .31 16% .32 63% .20 1.07 53% 37% 34% -2 0 0.98 30% 0.9 .28 14% .27 70% .23
Nov
3		 Central Michigan D- F F F+ F 33% 17% 50% C- F C C C B+ A+ F C F D F F F 49% 16% 35% F F F A+ C C+ D F F
1.02 38% 25% 29% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 14% .52 48% .25 1.26 63% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.27 45% 0.7 .31 18% .32 82% .26
Nov
9		 NC Central C- C- F F F 33% 15% 52% C- F D A+ A+ A A+ C A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ 44% 13% 44% F A A+ C- A- C- F+ F F
1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37 0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34
Nov
11		 Ohio St. F+ F F D+ D- 24% 29% 47% C- D- F+ A+ B B F F F C+ D A- A+ A+ 21% 23% 55% B- A+ C+ F D- F F C+ F
0.86 42% 29% 30% -9 -2 0.80 21% 1.7 .35 15% .15 63% .10 1.22 70% 36% 27% -4 -2 0.91 33% 1.3 .44 7% .56 75% .42
Nov
16		 Dartmouth B A- A+ D+ A 55% 14% 31% B+ A B+ F C F A C+ A- C B+ A+ F D- 29% 7% 64% D- D- D+ B C B+ F C F
1.18 68% 57% 31% +7 +2 1.20 35% 0.8 .29 18% .36 71% .25 1.07 50% 0% 44% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.0 .26 22% .53 73% .39
Nov
21		 Charlotte C C- B+ B B- 35% 18% 48% C+ B- C B C+ D+ A+ D- A+ C B A A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% F+ A+ F D+ F C- A+ A A+
1.15 57% 43% 37% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.2 .37 16% .48 65% .32 1.11 55% 25% 26% -8 +2 0.91 42% 1.0 .42 18% .24 64% .15
Nov
24		 Elon F D+ F F F 30% 9% 61% B- F F D- F C+ A+ F C F D F A+ C+ 37% 16% 47% B+ B- F F F F C F D
0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21 1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25
Nov
26		 Mercer C- A+ D F F+ 38% 28% 34% D F+ B- B B A D+ F F D A+ C+ F B- 17% 30% 53% A+ B F D- F D C- F F+
1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13 1.21 25% 36% 40% -2 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30
Nov
30		 UNC Asheville F A+ D F D- 21% 30% 49% F F F A D+ C D F F C+ F+ F A+ A- 29% 29% 41% D B F+ F F B+ F F F
0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13 1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43
Dec
11		 East Carolina D+ A- C- F C 46% 17% 38% B+ C+ A- D+ B F C- F D A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 43% 22% 35% D- A C+ A B+ D- A+ A+ A+
1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16 0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11
Dec
14		 High Point B- F A+ A+ A 36% 13% 51% C A- F D+ F A+ A+ C+ A A B A A+ 37% 0% 63% F+ A- C- A+ A+ D- D A+ B+
1.14 42% 57% 48% +8 +1 1.19 21% 1.0 .21 16% .41 73% .30 1.03 55% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 0.5 .16 11% .40 56% .22
Dec
18		 Coastal Carolina D+ C+ B- A+ A 40% 27% 33% B A D- F F F A+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% D A+ C- A- B- D+ F+ A+ B-
1.03 56% 42% 47% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.7 .16 18% .42 64% .26 0.75 41% 42% 18% -15 -1 0.71 27% 0.8 .20 14% .32 50% .16
Dec
20		 Georgia St. F B- F C- D- 42% 16% 42% C+ D- F F F B+ A+ F B- D F B D- F 30% 28% 41% C- F C+ A+ A+ A- F B D-
0.93 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 19% 0.4 .08 13% .41 58% .24 1.04 79% 31% 37% +6 -2 1.11 26% 0.5 .13 21% .37 75% .28
Dec
31		 Old Dominion A- A D- F C 46% 22% 33% C+ C+ A A+ A+ D A+ F A- C- F A+ F F+ 33% 21% 46% D+ F+ C A+ A F+ F A+ C-
1.22 71% 30% 27% +1 0 1.04 42% 1.5 .65 17% .51 61% .31 1.10 71% 18% 42% +5 0 1.12 25% 0.7 .18 12% .38 59% .22
Jan
3		 Marshall C+ A- A D- B- 33% 27% 41% D+ C+ C- A- B- C+ A+ F B F+ B- F+ F F 34% 26% 40% C- F A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F
1.15 69% 46% 30% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.2 .38 16% .52 55% .29 1.25 59% 46% 55% +15 -1 1.30 21% 0.8 .18 11% .40 72% .29
Jan
8		 Georgia St. F F+ F F F 40% 13% 47% B- F B+ F C- D- F F F A+ A+ B A+ A+ 30% 44% 26% A A+ A F C- F B+ A+ A+
0.84 50% 0% 24% -15 +1 0.73 40% 0.8 .31 19% .20 60% .12 0.81 33% 32% 15% -17 -4 0.60 20% 1.5 .30 11% .24 62% .15
Jan
10		 Coastal Carolina C+ D+ F F+ F+ 29% 29% 43% C F+ B B+ B+ A C+ B B- F+ F A- F F 35% 28% 37% C- F C+ D+ C F+ B A+ A
1.08 50% 29% 29% -8 -2 0.82 32% 1.2 .38 7% .32 76% .24 1.16 69% 31% 47% +9 -1 1.17 24% 1.0 .24 12% .22 55% .12
Jan
15		 James Madison A+ C A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A A+ A- A+ A+ B F F F D+ A+ A+ F A+ 35% 13% 52% C- A+ F+ B+ C- F C C+ C
1.36 58% 50% 45% +10 +2 1.26 38% 1.3 .50 10% .15 63% .09 1.11 24% 17% 40% -10 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .33 10% .30 69% .21
Jan
17		 Old Dominion C B- F F D- 53% 10% 37% A D+ D A+ B+ A- A F C+ F+ D F F F 24% 27% 49% B- F A F B- C- F A+ D-
1.12 65% 20% 22% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.5 .41 11% .43 60% .26 1.16 64% 50% 45% +13 -2 1.24 18% 1.4 .25 15% .42 61% .26
Jan
22		 Louisiana B C+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 13% 63% D+ A+ B+ F C- F D- F F C D+ B A+ A 24% 30% 46% C- A B+ F D- F B+ F C+
1.22 60% 80% 48% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .31 22% .32 60% .19 0.98 58% 33% 22% -10 -2 0.78 22% 1.4 .30 10% .17 89% .15
Jan
23		 Louisiana Monroe F C+ A+ F F 39% 5% 56% B F C- F F C F A F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 9% 43% F A+ B+ A+ A+ C C+ C+ C+
0.85 64% 67% 19% -9 +2 0.88 34% 0.1 .04 16% .15 78% .12 0.62 20% 20% 22% -28 +2 0.51 20% 0.5 .10 17% .30 71% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Southern Miss C F F A+ D 48% 15% 37% B D+ D F F A- A+ A- A+ B+ B C+ A+ B+ 39% 35% 27% B- B+ D- A+ B+ C- F B+ F
1.05 41% 29% 47% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.5 .11 14% .50 76% .38 0.95 53% 35% 23% -7 -2 0.84 36% 0.7 .24 18% .48 69% .33
Jan
31		 Troy B- A+ C B- A- 15% 15% 70% D B+ C- F F F+ F A+ D- A+ C B A+ A+ 37% 12% 51% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+
1.12 86% 43% 36% +7 -1 1.15 30% 0.7 .20 20% .17 88% .15 0.75 56% 33% 16% -15 +1 0.73 22% 0.5 .11 15% .08 100% .08
Feb
4		 South Alabama C C+ A+ F D- 18% 4% 78% C+ D D+ A C+ A+ A+ F A- B C A+ F C 33% 29% 38% A+ C+ A- A+ A+ F A- D B
1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23 0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17
Feb
7		 Eastern Michigan D- C- A+ F D- 56% 10% 33% A D+ C+ F F A A+ F B B A+ D A+ A+ 30% 37% 33% A A+ B F F F A+ A- A+
1.01 56% 60% 19% -7 +3 0.94 32% 0.4 .12 11% .49 54% .26 0.93 44% 40% 17% -12 -3 0.72 23% 1.9 .44 9% .10 67% .07
Feb
11		 Georgia Southern B B- D D- D+ 49% 7% 44% B+ C- C+ C- C A- A+ D- A A- B A+ D C+ 42% 9% 49% D C+ D- A+ A+ B A+ A- A+
1.22 64% 33% 30% 0 +3 1.07 37% 1.0 .37 15% .50 71% .36 0.98 50% 0% 36% -5 +2 0.95 32% 0.5 .15 18% .17 67% .11
Feb
14		 James Madison F+ C- C- F F 21% 26% 53% F F B A+ A F+ A+ F B- C- A B D- B- 38% 20% 42% B- B- C- A- B- F C B+ C+
0.95 56% 36% 13% -18 -2 0.63 35% 1.3 .45 16% .47 58% .27 1.13 47% 30% 38% -3 0 0.96 30% 0.9 .27 8% .30 65% .20
Feb
19		 Marshall A+ C A+ B+ B 35% 5% 60% A B+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F D+ F F F 32% 25% 43% C- F B F+ C F F C+ F+
1.40 60% 50% 38% +5 +2 1.16 39% 1.6 .64 11% .67 70% .47 1.41 65% 62% 48% +17 -1 1.34 27% 1.3 .35 8% .34 71% .24
Feb
21		 Georgia Southern B A+ F C- B+ 40% 13% 47% C B C- B- C B- A+ B- A+ C D+ A+ D D+ 28% 11% 61% B- C- B- A+ A+ B- B+ F C
1.25 83% 17% 33% +7 +1 1.18 33% 1.1 .37 17% .63 78% .49 1.04 60% 0% 36% -2 0 1.00 24% 0.7 .16 17% .27 88% .24
Feb
27		 Texas St. F+ C B- F F 36% 11% 53% C+ F A+ F C+ D- A+ F C+ B B- F F+ F+ 40% 43% 17% A D A+ A+ A+ F+ C- A+ B
0.94 59% 40% 20% -11 +1 0.83 48% 0.7 .31 21% .46 55% .25 0.99 53% 50% 38% +4 -3 1.04 21% 0.7 .14 15% .29 60% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 9.2% 9.2% 14.2 0.0 1.0 5.5 2.7 0.1 90.8
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 14.2 90.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.2% 100.0% 14.2 0.1 10.8 59.4 29.1 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.9%
Lose Out 41.4%