Charlotte
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.8 #170
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 #191
Pace 61.4 #351
Improvement +0.1 #180

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #117 B- C+ C C B
Defense #261 C- C- D C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #180 1.27 #74 +1.9 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #318 0.65 #306 -3.4 #331
Three Pointers 48% #47 1.04 #147 +4.4 #40
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #99 +3.0 #98
Freethrows 18.1 #138 75% #93 13.7 #162
Second Chance 34.1% #87 1.00 #244 0.34 #131
Turnovers 16.8% #188
Total Offense +2.0 #117

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #174 1.16 #170 -0.2 #181
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #222 0.77 #202 +0.5 #161
Three Pointers 42% #147 1.06 #250 -1.6 #259
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #228 -1.4 #229
Freethrows 19.5 #285 68% #27 13.2 #136
Second Chance 31.6% #219 1.07 #229 0.34 #235
Turnovers 14.6% #305
Total Defense -2.9 #261

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #71 0.5% #210
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.0% #125 2.2% #224
Possession Length 18.9 #329 18.4 #327
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #240 0.17 #155
Improvement +0.6 #141 -0.5 #215

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.9% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.4 13.9
.500 or above 34.7% 52.2% 24.8%
.500 or above in Conference 61.8% 79.4% 51.7%
Conference Champion 2.4% 5.0% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 1.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 36.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 34 - 75 - 15
Quad 410 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 207 Indiana St. W 92 - 76 68% +9  1 - 0 +10 +19 A+ A+ A+ -8 C- D F
 Fri, Nov 7 314 Tennessee Tech W 70 - 65 85% +9  2 - 0 -7 -4 C+ A+ F -3 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 149 Davidson L 55 - 62 56% -10  2 - 1 -9 -6 F D C+ -4 D- A+ A-
 Sun, Nov 16 64 @Virginia Tech L 76 - 84 12% -8  2 - 2 +4 +13 B- A- A+ -10 A+ D F
 Fri, Nov 21 223 @Appalachian St. L 63 - 65 48% +2  2 - 3 -2 +7 D A F -10 F D+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 91 Illinois St. L 69 - 79 25% -10  2 - 4 -4 +4 A+ F F -9 D+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 116 Richmond L 66 - 71 35% -8  2 - 5 -2 -2 C F A +0 C+ C- C+
 Tue, Dec 2 302 N.C. A&T W 74 - 57 84% +13  3 - 5 +6 +1 A A- F +6 A- A- B-
 Sun, Dec 7 28 Utah St. L 53 - 79 12% -11  3 - 6 -14 -11 F A+ F -5 B A+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 155 @College of Charleston L 67 - 74 35% -4  3 - 7 -4 -3 C F F -1 F D B-
 Thu, Dec 18 326 Lafayette W 81 - 67 87% +11  4 - 7 +1 +17 A+ C- C+ -14 D- F D
 Sun, Dec 21 160 Illinois-Chicago W 88 - 76 OT 59% -9  5 - 7 +9 +13 C+ F B- -5 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 30 140 Temple L 73 - 76 54% -8  5 - 8 0 - 1 -5 -1 D+ C D- -4 D- C B
 Sat, Jan 3 105 Wichita St. W 104 - 100 2OT 40% -10  6 - 8 1 - 1 +6 +25 A- A+ A+ -19 F F C
 Wed, Jan 7 332 @Texas San Antonio W 74 - 58 75% +9  7 - 8 2 - 1 +8 +7 C C+ D+ +3 C C F
 Sun, Jan 11 247 @Rice W 74 - 73 54% +3  8 - 8 3 - 1 -1 +6 A+ F F -7 C- B- C-
 Wed, Jan 14 93 Tulsa L 73 - 77 36%
 Sun, Jan 18 262 @East Carolina W 72 - 70 57%
 Sun, Jan 25 158 Tulane W 72 - 70 58%
 Wed, Jan 28 140 @Temple L 71 - 76 33%
 Sat, Jan 31 247 Rice W 73 - 66 74%
 Wed, Feb 4 105 @Wichita St. L 66 - 75 21%
 Sun, Feb 8 83 @Memphis L 66 - 77 16%
 Sun, Feb 15 332 Texas San Antonio W 78 - 65 88%
 Wed, Feb 18 93 @Tulsa L 70 - 80 18%
 Sat, Feb 21 262 East Carolina W 75 - 67 76%
 Wed, Feb 25 137 North Texas W 65 - 64 52%
 Sun, Mar 1 102 @Florida Atlantic L 69 - 78 21%
 Wed, Mar 4 115 UAB L 73 - 75 45%
 Sun, Mar 8 75 @South Florida L 71 - 83 15%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -1 +2 B- C+ C -3 C- C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 2.4 1st
2nd 0.5 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 5.1 1.1 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.1 3.1 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.2 4.2 6.9 0.6 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 2.0 8.4 2.7 0.0 13.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 6.9 5.8 0.2 13.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.7 6.7 1.1 0.0 13.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.3 1.9 0.1 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.8 12.1 17.7 20.5 18.0 12.1 6.8 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 96.2% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 73.9% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 32.9% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 6.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 17.0% 17.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.9% 8.0% 8.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-5 3.1% 6.6% 6.6% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
12-6 6.8% 4.5% 4.5% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.5
11-7 12.1% 2.6% 2.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.8
10-8 18.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 17.8
9-9 20.5% 0.4% 0.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 20.4
8-10 17.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.6 0.0 0.1 17.6
7-11 12.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 5.8% 5.8
5-13 2.1% 2.1
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 13.7 98.6 0.0%