Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.8 #7
Expected Predictive Rating +27.3 #5
Pace 69.5 #176
Improvement -4.6 #352

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #10 A+ A+ C A- A+
Defense #9 A- A+ A- A B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.35 #22 +6.7 #17
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #364 1.03 #5 -4.1 #346
Three Pointers 50% #29 1.10 #71 +6.7 #21
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #8 +9.3 #9
Freethrows 21.3 #18 72% #196 15.4 #35
Second Chance 38.7% #17 1.21 #28 0.47 #12
Turnovers 16.2% #151
Total Offense +11.1 #10

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #318 0.97 #16 +6.3 #19
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #63 0.70 #104 -0.9 #253
Three Pointers 42% #145 0.96 #112 +0.5 #158
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #31 +5.8 #31
Freethrows 12.6 #18 74% #244 9.3 #344
Second Chance 23.5% #13 0.82 #8 0.19 #4
Turnovers 20.1% #28
Total Defense +9.7 #9

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.1% #6 -1.9% #46
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.5% #19 -9.7% #33
Possession Length 14.9 #19 19.4 #363
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #67 0.14 #59
Improvement -0.7 #228 -3.9 #348

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.0% 7.7% 3.5%
#1 Seed 32.6% 35.3% 18.3%
Top 2 Seed 68.7% 72.3% 49.7%
Top 4 Seed 97.0% 97.8% 92.7%
Top 6 Seed 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.1 2.0 2.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 65.5% 69.4% 44.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.3% 97.6% 96.0%
Sweet Sixteen70.6% 71.5% 66.0%
Elite Eight42.0% 43.1% 36.0%
Final Four22.2% 23.1% 17.0%
Championship Game10.9% 11.4% 7.9%
National Champion5.1% 5.4% 3.7%

Next Game: California (Away) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 213 - 5
Quad 26 - 119 - 5
Quad 33 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 41 Texas W 75 - 60 79% +5  1 - 0 +27 +9 B C C +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 291 Western Carolina W 95 - 54 99% +23  2 - 0 +31 +9 D A+ B+ +18 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 330 @Army W 114 - 59 99% +23  3 - 0 +47 +26 A+ A+ C +17 A+ A- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 207 Indiana St. W 100 - 62 98% +19  4 - 0 +32 +17 A+ A+ C +12 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 18 Kansas W 78 - 66 65% +3  5 - 0 +29 +19 A+ A+ A- +11 A+ B D+
 Fri, Nov 21 355 Niagara W 100 - 42 100% +30  6 - 0 +41 +27 A+ A+ B- +19 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 23 275 Howard W 93 - 56 99% +29  7 - 0 +27 +18 A+ B A- +9 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 26 Arkansas W 80 - 71 70% +1  8 - 0 +24 +12 C A+ C- +13 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 12 Florida W 67 - 66 65% +5  9 - 0 +18 +8 A+ B+ D +10 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 13 @Michigan St. W 66 - 60 45% +0  10 - 0 +28 +13 B+ B A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 167 Lipscomb W 97 - 73 98% +5  11 - 0 +20 +8 B A+ F +8 B- A+ A
 Sat, Dec 20 21 Texas Tech L 81 - 82 67% +4  11 - 1 +15 +15 A+ B- C+ +1 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 111 Georgia Tech W 85 - 79 96% +0  12 - 1 1 - 0 +7 +12 A+ C+ C- -6 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 117 @Florida St. W 91 - 87 91% +0  13 - 1 2 - 0 +10 +20 A+ A+ C -10 F F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 19 @Louisville W 84 - 73 55% -2  14 - 1 3 - 0 +30 +14 A+ F B +16 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 30 SMU W 82 - 75 81% +4  15 - 1 4 - 0 +19 +13 A+ C C+ +6 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 81 @California W 80 - 69 84%
 Sat, Jan 17 77 @Stanford W 79 - 69 83%
 Sat, Jan 24 57 Wake Forest W 84 - 70 91%
 Mon, Jan 26 19 Louisville W 83 - 76 75%
 Sat, Jan 31 64 @Virginia Tech W 80 - 71 80%
 Tue, Feb 3 151 Boston College W 81 - 58 99%
 Sat, Feb 7 29 @North Carolina W 77 - 74 60%
 Tue, Feb 10 88 @Pittsburgh W 78 - 67 85%
 Sat, Feb 14 33 Clemson W 75 - 65 81%
 Mon, Feb 16 61 Syracuse W 83 - 68 91%
 Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 78 - 83 33%
 Tue, Feb 24 71 @Notre Dame W 76 - 66 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 17 Virginia W 77 - 70 73%
 Mon, Mar 2 24 @North Carolina St. W 78 - 76 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 29 North Carolina W 80 - 71 80%
Totals 27 - 4 15 - 3 +21 +11 A+ A+ C +10 A- A+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 4.2 14.8 22.6 17.0 6.5 65.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 7.3 6.3 1.4 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 4.1 9.1 15.2 21.7 24.0 17.1 6.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.5    6.5 0.0
17-1 99.5% 17.0    16.2 0.8 0.0
16-2 94.0% 22.6    17.4 4.9 0.3
15-3 68.2% 14.8    6.7 6.1 1.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 27.4% 4.2    0.8 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.0
13-5 4.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 65.5% 65.5 47.5 13.4 3.6 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.5% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 1.2 4.9 1.5 0.0 100.0%
17-1 17.1% 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1.4 10.3 6.2 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 24.0% 100.0% 39.7% 60.3% 1.7 10.3 10.8 2.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 21.7% 100.0% 34.7% 65.3% 2.1 5.2 10.0 5.6 0.8 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.2% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 2.6 1.6 5.5 6.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.1% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 3.2 0.3 1.7 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.1% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 3.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.6% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 4.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
10-8 0.6% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.2% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 2.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 1.1 89.0 10.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 80.5 19.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.2 78.3 21.7