East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -4.9 248
Results Rating -6.3 264
Consistency 0.13 101
Pace 70.4 129
Improvement +3.6 53

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 270 D- C+ C- B- D+
Defense C- 205 C- D+ C B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 129 D 52% 313 -1.5 233
2 Pt. Jumpers 55% 33 C 38% 176 +2.6 53
Three Pointers 33% 338 F 28% 357 -7.1 352
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 287 D- -5.2 343
1st FG Attempt D- 0.90 343
Second Chance B- 32.7% 105 C 1.02 186 C+ 0.33 118
Opponents' Steals C- 9.9% 227
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 196
Turnovers C- 17.3% 210
Freethrows B 0.35 49 D+ 70% 252 B- 0.25 95
Total Offense D+ -3.8 270

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 122 C- 11.5% 216
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 170 A- 1.5% 10
Three Pointers C- 82% 222 B+ 0.2% 21
Total D+ 52% 263 C+ 5.1% 123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 251 C 58% 189 -1.1 133
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 119 C- 39% 239 +0.9 262
Three Pointers 41% 161 D+ 36% 252 +1.2 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 114 C- +1.3 236
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 213
Second Chance C- 30.9% 210 D- 1.14 327 D+ 0.35 288
Turnovers from Steals C 9.6% 177
Other Turnovers C+ 7.6% 133
Turnovers C 17.2% 152
Freethrows B 0.26 52 D+ 74% 299 B- 0.19 77
Total Defense C- -1.1 205

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 323 B+ 16.4% 34
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 310 C- 3.9% 235
Three Pointers C 84% 181 C- 0.8% 183
Total D+ 61% 296 B- 7.1% 64

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 161 16.9 102
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 214 0.20 296
Consistency 0.11 111 0.10 49
Improvement +4.1 20 -0.4 212

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 274 252 224
Results Rating Rank 305 260 237
Conference Record 5 - 13 5 - 13 7 - 11
Conference Finish 12 12 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Memphis (Home) - 29.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 32 - 73 - 15
Quad 47 - 710 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 261 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 64% +2  62% 1 - 0 D+ -6 C- -1 F+ A+ B D -5 D F B
 Sat, Nov 8 130 @Richmond L 72 - 87 18% -10  18% 1 - 1 D -10 D -6 D D+ C- C- -3 D B+ C
 Tue, Nov 18 107 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 14% -12  7% 1 - 2 F -18 F+ -9 F+ C- C- F -10 F C+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 264 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 65% -7  0% 1 - 3 F -21 F -15 F+ B- D D -6 F+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 10 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  0% 1 - 4 D- -13 F+ -10 C+ C F C- -3 D D+ D+
 Thu, Nov 27 133 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 27% -3  8% 1 - 5 D+ -7 F -20 F F F A+ +13 A+ B- B+
 Tue, Dec 2 351 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 86% +5  60% 2 - 5 C- -5 C- -0 B D+ D+ C- -2 D- C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 298 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 72% -2  24% 2 - 6 F+ -15 D -6 F A+ F F+ -9 B- F C
 Thu, Dec 11 170 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 46% -9  0% 2 - 7 F+ -17 F -18 F C- C C -0 D- F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 206 Buffalo W 73 - 70 53% -8  21% 3 - 7 C- -3 D- -7 F A A+ B +4 A D- B
 Wed, Dec 17 271 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 67% +10  98% 4 - 7 B+ +12 D+ -4 B+ D F A+ +16 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 26 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 3% -24  1% 4 - 8 F -30 F -21 F D F D -5 F D B+
 Wed, Dec 31 180 Tulane L 70 - 79 48% -1  32% 4 - 9 0 - 1 D- -13 D+ -3 D D A+ F -11 D- F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 156 @Temple L 67 - 75 23% -9  0% 4 - 10 0 - 2 D+ -5 D+ -3 B- C- D- C- -2 B+ F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 112 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 31% -2  26% 4 - 11 0 - 3 C- -2 D+ -3 D+ B F+ C+ +1 B D+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 55 @South Florida L 71 - 82 6% -11  1% 4 - 12 0 - 4 C+ +2 C- -2 D C A B +5 C A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 169 Charlotte L 70 - 73 46% -7  6% 4 - 13 0 - 5 D+ -7 D -6 D- D+ A+ C -1 F D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 93 @Wichita St. L 60 - 77 10% -14  0% 4 - 14 0 - 6 D+ -8 D -5 F D+ A+ D+ -4 A- F D
 Fri, Jan 23 141 @North Texas W 63 - 59 19% +3  86% 5 - 14 1 - 6 B +8 C- -1 D- A+ F A +10 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 28 237 Rice L 77 - 83 59% -7  2% 5 - 15 1 - 7 D- -13 D+ -4 F+ B- B+ F+ -10 F F+ C+
 Sun, Feb 1 120 @Florida Atlantic W 76 - 75 16% -1  24% 6 - 15 2 - 7 B- +7 B+ +7 D+ A- B- C -1 D- D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 156 Temple L 73 - 81 43% -5  19% 6 - 16 2 - 8 D -11 C+ +2 C- C+ A+ F -14 C D+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 336 Texas San Antonio W 88 - 72 82% +12  89% 7 - 16 3 - 8 C +1 B- +4 F A+ A C- -3 C C- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 237 @Rice W 85 - 75 36% +6  83% 8 - 16 4 - 8 B +9 A +12 B+ A+ A- C- -3 B F+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 93 Wichita St. L 89 - 92 2OT 23% +1  60% 8 - 17 4 - 9 C -0 C- -2 C+ D+ A- B- +3 C- A B
 Sat, Feb 21 169 @Charlotte L 56 - 68 25% -7  0% 8 - 18 4 - 10 D -10 F -17 F D- F+ B+ +7 A+ B- F
 Wed, Feb 25 336 @Texas San Antonio W 82 - 81 64% -2  26% 9 - 18 5 - 10 D+ -8 B- +5 C A+ F+ F -13 F F A+
 Sun, Mar 1 108 Memphis L 71 - 77 29%
 Thu, Mar 5 64 Tulsa L 73 - 84 15%
 Sun, Mar 8 112 @UAB L 69 - 80 14%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 12 -5 D+ -4 F D- D+ C- -1 F D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D C F D- 40% 55% 33% D+ D- B- C C+ C- B D+ B- C- C C- D+ C- 36% 22% 41% C+ C- C- D- D+ C B D+ B-
1.03 52% 38% 28% -5 -1 0.90 33% 1.0 .33 17% .35 70% .25 1.10 58% 39% 36% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.1 .35 17% .26 74% .26
Nov
4		 Georgia Southern C- B- D F F+ 45% 22% 33% D+ F+ A A- A+ B A+ F A+ D C+ B+ D- D+ 55% 11% 35% F+ D F F F B F A+ D
1.14 64% 33% 22% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.2 .54 16% .61 63% .39 1.11 53% 33% 37% -2 +2 1.04 35% 1.3 .45 17% .45 60% .27
Nov
8		 Richmond D C+ A F D+ 28% 32% 40% D D F A D+ C- A+ C A+ C- F F A+ D+ 37% 18% 45% F D A+ F B+ C F D F
0.97 62% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 18% .51 71% .36 1.18 78% 56% 27% +6 0 1.14 15% 1.3 .19 15% .57 81% .46
Nov
18		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ C+ F D 15% 43% 43% F F+ C D- C- C- C- B C F F B+ F F 23% 23% 53% B- F B- C- C+ B+ F D- F
0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19 1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38
Nov
21		 Charleston Southern F C- C- F F 47% 33% 20% C- F+ D A+ B- D B F D D C A+ F F 22% 22% 56% A+ F+ A+ B A+ F B F C
0.92 54% 35% 10% -10 -1 0.80 26% 1.3 .34 14% .40 54% .22 1.10 58% 25% 48% +9 -1 1.18 15% 0.8 .12 13% .21 77% .16
Nov
25		 Michigan St. F+ F B A+ C+ 48% 25% 28% B C+ A+ F C F A+ C- A+ C- D C+ F D- 32% 29% 39% B D B+ F D+ D+ A+ A A+
0.78 26% 40% 55% -6 0 0.90 31% 0.5 .14 33% .54 69% .37 1.24 67% 38% 45% +9 -1 1.18 36% 1.3 .47 15% .20 67% .13
Nov
27		 St. Bonaventure F F D C- F 40% 27% 33% D+ F C+ F F F A+ A A+ A+ C B+ A A+ 23% 38% 40% A+ A+ A+ F B- B+ B- F C-
0.82 22% 33% 33% -16 -1 0.69 30% 0.6 .19 24% .47 84% .39 0.95 58% 35% 29% -4 -3 0.87 25% 1.2 .31 20% .25 86% .21
Dec
2		 Maryland Eastern Shore C- C F A+ B 43% 20% 38% C B B- F D+ D+ A+ D A C- F F A F 22% 42% 36% A+ D- B+ D C+ F A A+ A+
1.15 59% 25% 47% +5 0 1.13 36% 0.9 .32 17% .47 70% .33 0.95 70% 53% 25% +4 -4 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 19% .15 57% .08
Dec
6		 UNC Greensboro D B F F F 42% 14% 44% B+ F A+ A A+ F B- F C- F+ C- F A+ C+ 35% 31% 35% B B- F F F C D- F F
1.12 67% 29% 23% -5 +1 0.94 53% 1.3 .71 22% .29 63% .18 1.18 59% 47% 24% -3 -2 0.94 38% 1.6 .59 16% .41 88% .36
Dec
11		 Appalachian St. F F A- F F 43% 22% 35% C F C+ D C- C F+ F F C F+ C- B+ D- 46% 17% 38% D D- F D+ F A+ A D B+
0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11 1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16
Dec
14		 Buffalo D- F D+ F F 42% 21% 37% C- F B- A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ F C A+ 39% 16% 45% C- A F B- D- B D D+ D
1.06 41% 36% 21% -15 0 0.73 37% 1.2 .44 10% .49 77% .37 1.02 35% 50% 35% -7 +1 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 19% .38 76% .29
Dec
17		 Presbyterian D+ C- A+ B- B 56% 17% 27% B B+ F A D F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 63% 17% 20% F A+ C+ F D+ A+ B+ D+ B-
1.08 57% 71% 36% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .25 23% .50 85% .42 0.77 48% 25% 11% -15 +2 0.76 30% 1.2 .36 28% .28 71% .20
Dec
22		 North Carolina F D- F F F 39% 33% 28% C- F A+ F D F A D- B+ D C F F F 41% 16% 43% C- F F B- D B+ F B+ F+
0.67 45% 16% 13% -21 -2 0.56 38% 0.4 .15 22% .29 65% .19 1.30 62% 50% 50% +14 +1 1.31 41% 1.1 .43 16% .47 63% .30
Dec
31		 Tulane D+ B- F C- D 43% 24% 33% C- D C+ F D A+ C+ F C- F B+ B- F F 28% 28% 44% A+ D- F D F B+ F A+ F+
1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21 1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33
Jan
7		 Temple D+ D A+ A+ B+ 44% 40% 16% F B- B F C- D- A F C C- A+ A+ F+ A 41% 9% 50% F B+ D+ F F B- F D- F
1.03 53% 53% 43% +6 -2 1.09 34% 0.8 .28 18% .40 57% .23 1.15 32% 25% 39% -8 +2 0.89 31% 1.5 .49 15% .47 81% .38
Jan
11		 UAB D+ B- F B C- 33% 32% 35% F+ D+ A- D+ B F+ A+ F B+ C+ A- D- A+ B+ 55% 25% 20% D B B+ F D+ D B- B B
1.02 62% 25% 36% -2 -2 0.95 35% 0.9 .30 20% .35 65% .23 1.04 49% 44% 23% -7 +1 0.89 27% 1.3 .36 10% .28 67% .19
Jan
14		 South Florida C- C F+ D- D 35% 30% 35% D+ D D- A+ C A A F B- B B+ A+ F C- 40% 11% 49% B C A+ A+ A+ F C- D+ D+
0.96 55% 29% 30% -6 -1 0.88 23% 1.2 .28 15% .40 60% .24 1.11 48% 17% 39% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.5 .14 9% .39 77% .30
Jan
18		 Charlotte D D+ C- F+ D- 44% 31% 25% D+ D- F+ A D+ A+ D+ D D+ C B F F F 51% 5% 44% F F B F D+ A+ A- F C+
1.06 54% 35% 29% -5 -1 0.91 23% 1.3 .30 8% .30 67% .20 1.11 55% 100% 47% +10 +3 1.28 30% 1.2 .35 27% .27 85% .23
Jan
21		 Wichita St. D C- F F F 33% 35% 31% D+ F C F D+ A+ B D- C+ D+ F F A+ A- 26% 20% 54% B A- D F F D C- D- D+
0.92 56% 21% 24% -12 -2 0.74 27% 0.8 .20 9% .32 63% .20 1.18 69% 60% 15% -8 -1 0.84 43% 1.3 .55 12% .33 74% .25
Jan
23		 North Texas C- F F A D- 33% 30% 38% D- D- A+ A A+ F A+ B A+ A C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 26% 33% A- A+ A- F C F A- C+ A-
0.98 38% 25% 40% -7 -2 0.85 45% 1.2 .55 28% .50 74% .37 0.92 55% 21% 17% -14 -1 0.72 29% 1.2 .33 11% .28 69% .19
Jan
28		 Rice D+ B- F F F 43% 24% 33% B F+ C- A- B- B+ A A+ A+ F+ F C- F F 21% 28% 51% C+ F C+ F F+ C+ F A+ F+
1.10 65% 23% 22% -6 0 0.89 31% 1.2 .37 13% .43 88% .38 1.18 70% 38% 42% +9 -2 1.15 34% 1.2 .40 19% .44 60% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Florida Atlantic B+ F+ C B+ D+ 52% 22% 26% C D+ A- B A- B- A C+ A- C D C- F F+ 40% 19% 42% C- D- F+ B- D+ A+ A+ F A-
1.13 46% 36% 38% -5 +1 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 15% .39 73% .28 1.12 63% 44% 40% +7 0 1.17 38% 1.0 .38 24% .20 80% .16
Feb
7		 Temple C+ C+ D+ F D+ 55% 22% 22% B C- D+ A C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B- D- D D+ 29% 35% 37% A+ C F A D+ F B- D- C
1.15 59% 36% 27% -2 +1 1.00 26% 1.3 .32 9% .47 74% .35 1.27 53% 44% 37% +2 -2 1.02 43% 0.8 .33 6% .34 80% .27
Feb
11		 Texas San Antonio B- D- A+ F F 31% 19% 50% D+ F C A+ A+ A B A+ A+ C- B- A+ C- C 39% 18% 43% D+ C F A- C- D- C- A+ B+
1.24 53% 60% 22% -6 0 0.89 37% 1.6 .58 11% .32 90% .29 1.01 50% 20% 33% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.8 .30 14% .26 50% .13
Feb
14		 Rice A C- A+ A+ A 24% 45% 31% F B+ C A+ A+ A- A+ C- A C- F B A C+ 15% 40% 45% A+ B F+ D F+ F B- F D
1.28 58% 50% 47% +11 -4 1.16 32% 1.6 .50 12% .44 73% .32 1.13 88% 32% 28% -2 -4 0.89 40% 1.0 .40 14% .28 88% .24
Feb
18		 Wichita St. C- F A+ F B- 35% 48% 17% F C+ B- F D+ A- A F C+ B- D F A+ D+ 38% 28% 34% B C- A+ B- A B C+ B- C+
1.01 38% 61% 25% +1 -4 0.97 30% 0.7 .22 12% .36 57% .21 1.04 63% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.9 .27 17% .31 65% .21
Feb
21		 Charlotte F D F+ F F 31% 35% 33% F F C F D- F+ A+ F B B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 44% 13% 42% D+ A+ C- B+ B- F B+ B- B+
0.86 53% 29% 13% -15 -2 0.67 29% 0.8 .24 18% .43 61% .26 1.04 57% 14% 27% -8 +1 0.88 35% 0.8 .28 12% .28 69% .19
Feb
25		 Texas San Antonio B- C+ A+ D B 29% 36% 36% F C A- A+ A+ F+ A+ C+ A+ F F D F F 32% 26% 43% B+ F D- F F A+ B+ F C
1.21 62% 56% 31% +6 -3 1.09 45% 1.4 .61 19% .48 73% .35 1.20 80% 42% 45% +15 -1 1.30 35% 1.4 .48 25% .20 90% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 0.2 0.4 0.7 9th
10th 2.5 0.2 2.7 10th
11th 5.3 24.3 6.4 0.0 36.0 11th
12th 46.9 13.3 0.2 60.4 12th
13th 13th
Total 52.2 37.7 9.3 0.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-12 37.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 37.6
5-13 52.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 52.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 15.8%