East Carolina
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #262
Expected Predictive Rating -8.9 #305
Pace 71.4 #110
Improvement +2.1 #74

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #316 F C D- B D+
Defense #172 C- D C B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #89 1.04 #310 -0.4 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #63 0.72 #217 +2.0 #80
Three Pointers 31% #345 0.85 #337 -7.5 #353
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #339 -6.0 #338
Freethrows 21.0 #21 68% #309 14.3 #79
Second Chance 33.9% #94 0.91 #325 0.31 #194
Turnovers 19.2% #321
Total Offense -5.6 #316

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #226 1.12 #135 +1.5 #126
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #111 0.80 #253 -1.2 #275
Three Pointers 40% #205 1.11 #305 -1.7 #262
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #234 -1.5 #234
Freethrows 14.8 #62 75% #284 11.1 #285
Second Chance 29.7% #142 1.26 #352 0.37 #297
Turnovers 17.2% #140
Total Defense -0.2 #172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #258 -0.7% #109
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.8% #340 3.6% #254
Possession Length 17.2 #162 16.2 #31
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #222 0.23 #338
Improvement +0.2 #167 +1.9 #74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 0.2% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 8.7% 2.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 24.5% 10.7% 25.3%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Florida (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 9
Quad 32 - 92 - 17
Quad 47 - 59 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 230 Georgia Southern W 92 - 89 54% +2  1 - 0 -4 +2 F A+ A- -6 D+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 116 @Richmond L 72 - 87 14% -10  1 - 1 -9 -3 D- D C -5 D B C-
 Tue, Nov 18 118 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 85 14% -12  1 - 2 -19 -7 F D C- -13 F B- B-
 Fri, Nov 21 217 Charleston Southern L 65 - 77 51% -7  1 - 3 -18 -10 D- B- F -8 F B F
 Tue, Nov 25 13 Michigan St. L 56 - 89 2% -22  1 - 4 -14 -6 B- C F -8 F C- D-
 Thu, Nov 27 127 St. Bonaventure L 58 - 67 23% -2  1 - 5 -7 -16 F F F +9 A- A A
 Tue, Dec 2 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68 - 56 76% +5  2 - 5 -1 +4 A D- D+ -3 D C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 288 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 82 67% -2  2 - 6 -14 -2 F A+ F -13 C F C
 Thu, Dec 11 223 Appalachian St. L 54 - 67 53% -9  2 - 7 -19 -16 F D C -4 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 14 199 Buffalo W 73 - 70 48% -8  3 - 7 -2 -4 F B+ A+ +2 A D+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 292 Presbyterian W 74 - 53 68% +10  4 - 7 +10 -2 B- D+ F +13 A+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 29 @North Carolina L 51 - 99 2% -24  4 - 8 -30 -18 F D F -9 F D+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 158 Tulane L 70 - 79 39% -1  4 - 9 0 - 1 -12 -0 D- F A+ -12 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 140 @Temple L 67 - 75 18% -9  4 - 10 0 - 2 -4 -2 C+ C F -3 A+ F B
 Sun, Jan 11 115 UAB L 85 - 87 OT 27% -2  4 - 11 0 - 3 -1 -1 C- B F +0 B- C D-
 Wed, Jan 14 75 @South Florida L 70 - 86 6%
 Sun, Jan 18 170 Charlotte L 70 - 72 43%
 Wed, Jan 21 105 @Wichita St. L 64 - 78 10%
 Sat, Jan 24 137 @North Texas L 59 - 69 17%
 Wed, Jan 28 247 Rice W 71 - 69 58%
 Sun, Feb 1 102 @Florida Atlantic L 68 - 82 10%
 Sat, Feb 7 140 Temple L 72 - 76 36%
 Wed, Feb 11 332 Texas San Antonio W 76 - 68 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 247 @Rice L 68 - 72 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 105 Wichita St. L 67 - 75 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 170 @Charlotte L 67 - 75 24%
 Wed, Feb 25 332 @Texas San Antonio W 73 - 71 57%
 Sun, Mar 1 83 Memphis L 67 - 77 18%
 Thu, Mar 5 93 Tulsa L 71 - 80 21%
 Sun, Mar 8 115 @UAB L 69 - 81 13%
Totals 8 - 22 4 - 14 -6 -6 F C D- +0 C- D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.4 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.1 4.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.3 3.8 0.5 9.8 10th
11th 0.4 4.7 9.7 7.3 1.6 0.0 23.8 11th
12th 0.4 4.8 12.7 15.0 8.2 1.8 0.1 43.0 12th
13th 0.7 3.3 5.4 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 14.2 13th
Total 0.7 3.7 10.2 16.9 20.8 19.2 14.0 8.3 3.8 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
8-10 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
7-11 8.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.2
6-12 14.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-13 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.2
4-14 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.8
3-15 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.9
2-16 10.2% 10.2
1-17 3.7% 3.7
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.8 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%