Georgia St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 #290
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #273
Pace 71.8 #103
Improvement +7.1 #1

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #323 F C- D+ C F
Defense #218 C D+ C C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #362 1.06 #294 -7.7 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #68 0.67 #285 +1.3 #105
Three Pointers 46% #87 0.83 #349 -1.8 #250
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #357 -8.2 #354
Freethrows 16.4 #242 79% #16 13.0 #156
Second Chance 26.8% #289 1.10 #111 0.30 #235
Turnovers 18.0% #266
Total Offense -6.0 #323

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #132 1.16 #173 -1.0 #212
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #243 0.66 #59 +1.7 #70
Three Pointers 41% #174 1.04 #223 -0.8 #215
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #180 -0.1 #180
Freethrows 18.1 #223 75% #297 13.6 #113
Second Chance 34.7% #316 1.03 #166 0.36 #274
Turnovers 16.7% #182
Total Defense -1.4 #218

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #337 0.9% #244
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.4% #352 -0.7% #169
Possession Length 17.7 #220 16.4 #49
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #317 0.18 #220
Improvement +4.7 #5 +2.4 #53

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 1.2% 1.8% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 35.5% 45.3% 20.1%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.1% 2.8%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 61.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 12
Quad 47 - 810 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 211 @Eastern Michigan L 49 - 71 24% -8  0 - 1 -22 -21 F F F -2 A+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 7 56 @Cincinnati L 64 - 74 4% -6  0 - 2 +3 -2 D- B+ D +5 A C A+
 Mon, Nov 10 292 Presbyterian L 61 - 63 62% +5  0 - 3 -13 -6 F C D+ -7 D- F A
 Mon, Nov 17 82 @Arizona St. L 62 - 75 6% +1  0 - 4 -3 -8 D F F +5 C A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 176 @South Dakota St. L 58 - 105 19% -28  0 - 5 -45 -16 F F C- -28 F A- F
 Tue, Nov 25 240 Samford L 63 - 78 39% -7  0 - 6 -20 -14 F C+ D+ -6 D F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 139 New Mexico St. L 58 - 77 21% -9  0 - 7 -18 -17 F F D+ +0 C+ B- F
 Tue, Dec 2 153 @Mercer L 67 - 78 16% -5  0 - 8 -8 -7 C- F D -1 A D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 159 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 92 17% -16  0 - 9 -20 -14 F B B -2 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 203 Jacksonville St. W 77 - 73 43% +5  1 - 9 -1 +7 F B A+ -8 B+ F F
 Thu, Dec 18 230 @Georgia Southern L 67 - 90 26% -8  1 - 10 0 - 1 -24 -5 D+ F D- -20 C+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 223 @Appalachian St. W 70 - 63 25% +4  2 - 10 1 - 1 +7 +1 B F F +5 C A+ D
 Wed, Dec 31 171 @Marshall L 80 - 84 19% -2  2 - 11 1 - 2 -2 +3 C- A- D -5 D+ F B
 Sat, Jan 3 268 @Coastal Carolina W 89 - 71 34% -1  3 - 11 2 - 2 +15 +24 A+ A+ B -7 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 223 Appalachian St. L 50 - 52 46% +2  3 - 12 2 - 3 -8 -18 F C A- +9 A+ C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 171 Marshall W 81 - 73 37% -3  4 - 12 3 - 3 +4 +2 F A+ F +2 B C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 79 - 76 61%
 Thu, Jan 22 210 Southern Miss L 71 - 73 44%
 Sat, Jan 24 133 Arkansas St. L 76 - 82 29%
 Thu, Jan 29 315 @Louisiana L 66 - 67 46%
 Sat, Jan 31 190 @South Alabama L 64 - 73 21%
 Wed, Feb 4 125 Troy L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 331 Northern Illinois W 76 - 70 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 213 @James Madison L 68 - 75 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 244 @Old Dominion L 71 - 77 30%
 Thu, Feb 19 230 Georgia Southern L 78 - 79 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 213 James Madison L 71 - 72 45%
 Tue, Feb 24 268 Coastal Carolina W 73 - 71 56%
 Fri, Feb 27 244 Old Dominion W 75 - 74 52%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -7 -6 F C- D+ -1 C D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.7 1.7 0.1 6.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 4.1 0.4 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 6.4 1.8 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 6.2 4.4 0.2 11.4 8th
9th 0.2 4.2 7.7 1.1 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 8.0 3.3 0.1 13.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 6.0 5.6 0.5 13.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.2 4.9 0.9 0.0 10.8 12th
13th 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.7 0.0 5.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.5 2.9 7.7 14.2 19.5 19.7 15.8 11.0 5.7 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 71.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 25.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.2% 17.1% 17.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.6% 9.4% 9.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-6 2.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.1
11-7 5.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.6
10-8 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.9
9-9 15.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 15.8
8-10 19.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.7
7-11 19.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.5
6-12 14.2% 14.2
5-13 7.7% 7.7
4-14 2.9% 2.9
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.8 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%