Illinois
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.0#13
Expected Predictive Rating+16.1#24
Pace75.1#57
Improvement-1.6#307

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#9
First Shot+8.5#19
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#66
Layup/Dunks+1.8#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#157
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#59
Freethrows+2.2#64
Improvement-1.3#301

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#17
First Shot+4.8#52
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#39
Layups/Dunks+7.7#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#364
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#201
Freethrows+4.4#6
Improvement-0.3#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 2.2% 0.6%
#1 Seed 8.4% 12.3% 5.2%
Top 2 Seed 22.3% 30.4% 15.7%
Top 4 Seed 54.7% 65.5% 46.0%
Top 6 Seed 77.1% 85.9% 69.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.2% 97.9% 92.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 94.8% 97.7% 92.4%
Average Seed 4.4 3.9 4.9
.500 or above 98.7% 99.5% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 95.5% 92.1%
Conference Champion 8.9% 11.0% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.2% 1.0% 3.1%
First Round94.2% 97.4% 91.6%
Second Round79.0% 85.4% 73.7%
Sweet Sixteen46.8% 53.1% 41.7%
Elite Eight23.4% 28.5% 19.3%
Final Four11.3% 14.1% 9.0%
Championship Game5.1% 6.5% 4.0%
National Champion2.1% 2.8% 1.5%

Next Game: Connecticut (Neutral) - 44.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 10
Quad 35 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 326 Jackson St. W 113-55 99%     1 - 0 +45.8 +26.4 +15.1
  Fri, Nov 7 164 Florida Gulf Coast W 113-70 97%     2 - 0 +39.3 +29.2 +7.2
  Tue, Nov 11 24 Texas Tech W 81-77 73%     3 - 0 +15.6 +10.8 +4.8
  Fri, Nov 14 182 Colgate W 84-65 97%     4 - 0 +14.5 +12.2 +3.1
  Wed, Nov 19 10 Alabama L 86-90 46%     4 - 1 +15.0 +9.9 +5.5
  Sat, Nov 22 232 LIU Brooklyn W 98-58 98%     5 - 1 +32.8 +21.2 +10.9
  Mon, Nov 24 202 UT Rio Grande Valley W 87-73 98%     6 - 1 +8.3 +10.6 -2.3
  Fri, Nov 28 8 Connecticut L 76-77 45%    
  Sat, Dec 6 14 Tennessee W 79-78 50%    
  Tue, Dec 9 20 @Ohio St. L 80-81 48%    
  Sat, Dec 13 43 Nebraska W 86-77 80%    
  Mon, Dec 22 33 Missouri W 84-79 67%    
  Mon, Dec 29 197 Southern W 92-69 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 100 Penn St. W 85-72 88%    
  Thu, Jan 8 120 Rutgers W 84-66 95%    
  Sun, Jan 11 21 @Iowa L 75-76 49%    
  Wed, Jan 14 56 @Northwestern W 80-75 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 103 Minnesota W 79-63 93%    
  Wed, Jan 21 93 Maryland W 86-71 91%    
  Sat, Jan 24 3 @Purdue L 75-82 26%    
  Thu, Jan 29 48 Washington W 83-73 82%    
  Sun, Feb 1 43 @Nebraska W 83-80 61%    
  Wed, Feb 4 56 Northwestern W 83-72 84%    
  Sat, Feb 7 12 @Michigan St. L 73-76 38%    
  Tue, Feb 10 27 Wisconsin W 85-78 73%    
  Sun, Feb 15 22 Indiana W 81-75 70%    
  Wed, Feb 18 31 @USC W 83-81 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 32 @UCLA W 75-73 55%    
  Fri, Feb 27 1 Michigan L 79-84 34%    
  Tue, Mar 3 80 Oregon W 85-71 88%    
  Sun, Mar 8 93 @Maryland W 83-74 79%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.6 1.2 0.3 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.5 3.7 1.0 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 5.2 7.2 3.7 0.7 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.3 6.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.1 5.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 2.6 0.9 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.2 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.5 5.7 8.7 12.4 14.0 15.3 14.1 11.0 7.3 3.6 1.3 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 96.6% 1.2    1.1 0.2 0.0
18-2 72.1% 2.6    1.6 1.0 0.1
17-3 40.4% 2.9    1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 13.6% 1.5    0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 4.4 3.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.3% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 3.6% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 1.6 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.3% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 1.9 2.4 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.0% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 2.5 1.8 3.7 3.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.1% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 3.2 0.9 3.1 4.9 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
14-6 15.3% 100.0% 6.6% 93.3% 3.9 0.3 1.5 4.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.0% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 4.8 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.6 3.9 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.4% 99.0% 2.1% 96.9% 5.9 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.1 3.1 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.0%
11-9 8.7% 96.0% 1.9% 94.1% 7.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 95.9%
10-10 5.7% 86.1% 1.4% 84.7% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 85.9%
9-11 3.5% 62.4% 0.7% 61.8% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3 62.2%
8-12 1.6% 32.5% 32.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.1 32.5%
7-13 0.8% 9.9% 9.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 9.9%
6-14 0.3% 2.0% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.3 2.0%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.2% 7.7% 87.5% 4.4 8.4 13.9 16.5 15.9 12.8 9.6 6.7 4.3 2.8 2.2 1.9 0.1 0.0 4.8 94.8%