Louisiana Monroe
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.5 #354
Expected Predictive Rating -24.1 #364
Pace 75.3 #43
Improvement +3.7 #32

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #327 D+ D- C C- C-
Defense #353 F F D+ A- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 1.04 #314 -3.4 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #142 0.67 #289 -0.2 #187
Three Pointers 41% #180 1.05 #142 +0.7 #150
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #252 -2.8 #251
Freethrows 16.4 #244 71% #246 11.6 #246
Second Chance 21.5% #358 1.12 #102 0.24 #327
Turnovers 17.1% #216
Total Offense -6.1 #327

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #192 1.35 #350 -3.6 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #302 0.83 #301 +0.9 #133
Three Pointers 45% #70 1.11 #310 -4.3 #338
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #353 -7.0 #353
Freethrows 14.4 #42 69% #43 9.9 #335
Second Chance 34.3% #309 1.23 #340 0.42 #349
Turnovers 15.0% #273
Total Defense -7.4 #353

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #234 1.0% #266
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.9% #251 12.6% #351
Possession Length 16.8 #125 15.9 #19
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #336 0.23 #329
Improvement +1.6 #86 +2.0 #68

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 94.9% 90.5% 97.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Home) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 30 - 71 - 13
Quad 43 - 133 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 331 @Northern Illinois L 82 - 102 29% -10  0 - 1 -28 +1 C D- C -28 F F B-
 Fri, Nov 7 65 @Mississippi L 65 - 86 2% -17  0 - 2 -9 -5 D+ F D+ -3 D- F A
 Thu, Nov 13 301 @Houston Christian L 61 - 72 21% +3  0 - 3 -16 -15 F F F -1 C- B- D-
 Mon, Nov 17 220 Lamar L 66 - 79 24% -9  0 - 4 -19 -8 F C- C -11 D- C+ F
 Sat, Nov 22 304 Morehead St. L 80 - 83 31% -0  0 - 5 -11 +2 D+ F B- -13 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 23 119 @East Tennessee St. L 55 - 97 5% -20  0 - 6 -36 -14 F C- B- -22 F F D
 Wed, Dec 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 66 - 52 89% +10  1 - 6 -13 -12 F F F -0 A+ C F
 Sun, Dec 7 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 76 - 96 4% -11  1 - 7 -13 +6 F A+ A -18 F A F
 Sat, Dec 13 35 @Miami (FL) L 79 - 104 1% -12  1 - 8 -8 +13 A C A+ -20 F D- F
 Wed, Dec 17 190 South Alabama L 92 - 96 2OT 21% +7  1 - 9 0 - 1 -9 -0 B+ A F -8 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 315 Louisiana L 62 - 76 45% -12  1 - 10 0 - 2 -26 -8 F C F -19 F A- F
 Sun, Dec 28 74 @Kansas St. L 85 - 94 2% -6  1 - 11 +2 +7 A+ F C- -4 D+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 210 Southern Miss L 73 - 87 23% -11  1 - 12 0 - 3 -20 -8 F D+ C+ -11 F C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 261 Texas St. L 79 - 84 32% -3  1 - 13 0 - 4 -14 -1 A F D+ -13 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 315 @Louisiana L 79 - 85 25% -3  1 - 14 0 - 5 -12 +4 A- F C -16 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 210 @Southern Miss L 60 - 70 11% +0  1 - 15 0 - 6 -10 -9 F F F -1 A- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 290 Georgia St. L 76 - 79 39%
 Thu, Jan 22 171 @Marshall L 72 - 88 7%
 Sat, Jan 24 223 @Appalachian St. L 64 - 77 11%
 Thu, Jan 29 230 Georgia Southern L 80 - 87 26%
 Sat, Jan 31 268 Coastal Carolina L 74 - 78 34%
 Wed, Feb 4 244 @Old Dominion L 73 - 85 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 303 Ball St. L 73 - 75 42%
 Wed, Feb 11 133 @Arkansas St. L 75 - 93 5%
 Sat, Feb 14 261 @Texas St. L 70 - 81 16%
 Wed, Feb 18 125 Troy L 72 - 84 13%
 Sat, Feb 21 133 Arkansas St. L 78 - 90 14%
 Wed, Feb 25 190 @South Alabama L 65 - 80 9%
 Fri, Feb 27 125 @Troy L 69 - 87 5%
Totals 3 - 26 2 - 16 -13 -6 D+ D- C -7 F F D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.0 12th
13th 0.9 3.0 3.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 9.3 13th
14th 14.1 28.2 26.2 14.5 4.2 0.4 0.0 87.6 14th
Total 14.1 28.2 27.1 17.5 8.8 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 1.0% 1.0
5-13 2.9% 2.9
4-14 8.8% 8.8
3-15 17.5% 17.5
2-16 27.1% 27.1
1-17 28.2% 28.2
0-18 14.1% 14.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.1%