Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.0 #35
Expected Predictive Rating +18.3 #16
Pace 72.4 #92
Improvement -0.5 #213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #35 A- B+ B B A-
Defense #39 B C+ A B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 52% #1 1.31 #46 +11.3 #1
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #265 0.90 #34 -0.3 #194
Three Pointers 32% #338 1.03 #167 -4.3 #314
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #29 +6.7 #30
Freethrows 20.1 #57 72% #221 14.4 #73
Second Chance 39.0% #15 1.03 #195 0.40 #43
Turnovers 14.9% #79
Total Offense +8.0 #35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #320 1.09 #94 +4.5 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #73 0.63 #35 +0.0 #183
Three Pointers 43% #130 1.02 #199 -1.1 #232
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #73 +3.4 #72
Freethrows 17.5 #192 65% #2 11.4 #262
Second Chance 26.5% #52 1.12 #273 0.30 #128
Turnovers 20.3% #20
Total Defense +5.9 #39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #24 -1.8% #53
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.8% #46 -5.0% #89
Possession Length 15.7 #49 18.2 #307
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #62 0.12 #38
Improvement +2.0 #73 -2.5 #315

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.3% 11.3% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 28.7% 42.9% 19.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.1% 93.4% 83.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.1% 92.8% 82.0%
Average Seed 7.5 6.8 8.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.8% 98.2%
Conference Champion 13.3% 23.2% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.3% 2.9% 8.5%
First Round84.0% 92.0% 78.8%
Second Round49.5% 58.5% 43.8%
Sweet Sixteen15.2% 20.1% 12.1%
Elite Eight5.3% 7.3% 4.0%
Final Four1.8% 2.6% 1.3%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Clemson (Away) - 39.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 7
Quad 25 - 110 - 8
Quad 36 - 016 - 8
Quad 49 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 305 Jacksonville W 86 - 69 98% +9  1 - 0 +6 +5 C A+ F -0 D A- B+
 Thu, Nov 6 272 Bethune-Cookman W 101 - 61 97% +20  2 - 0 +31 +21 A+ D- A+ +9 A+ F C
 Mon, Nov 10 345 Stetson W 102 - 61 99% +18  3 - 0 +26 +10 A- D C +12 A+ C A
 Sun, Nov 16 12 Florida L 68 - 82 29% -7  3 - 1 +6 -0 C- C- A- +8 C+ A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 20 169 Elon W 99 - 72 94% +10  4 - 1 +23 +16 A- A+ B +6 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 356 Delaware St. W 97 - 41 99% +31  5 - 1 +39 +20 A+ C+ A+ +19 B A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 11 BYU L 62 - 72 28% -3  5 - 2 +10 -1 D- B- A- +11 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 100 Georgetown W 78 - 65 80% +14  6 - 2 +18 +13 A+ B- F +7 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 65 @Mississippi W 75 - 66 59% +8  7 - 2 +21 +11 A+ A+ F +10 A+ D+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 210 Southern Miss W 88 - 64 96% +5  8 - 2 +18 +9 B B+ D- +8 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 354 Louisiana Monroe W 104 - 79 99% +12  9 - 2 +9 +21 A+ B- A+ -13 F D+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 172 Florida International W 98 - 81 94% +6  10 - 2 +13 +15 A+ C A+ -3 C- B B+
 Sun, Dec 21 350 North Florida W 105 - 67 99% +18  11 - 2 +22 +13 A+ C+ C +6 A+ D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 88 Pittsburgh W 76 - 69 84% -1  12 - 2 1 - 0 +11 +8 F A+ B +3 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 57 @Wake Forest W 81 - 77 56% -1  13 - 2 2 - 0 +16 +17 C A+ A- -0 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 111 Georgia Tech W 91 - 81 88% +10  14 - 2 3 - 0 +11 +15 A+ C+ A+ -5 C B B
 Tue, Jan 13 71 @Notre Dame W 81 - 69 62% +5  15 - 2 4 - 0 +23 +18 A+ C- B+ +6 C+ D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 33 @Clemson L 70 - 73 39%
 Tue, Jan 20 117 Florida St. W 92 - 78 91%
 Sat, Jan 24 61 @Syracuse W 78 - 76 57%
 Wed, Jan 28 77 Stanford W 81 - 71 81%
 Sat, Jan 31 81 California W 82 - 72 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 151 @Boston College W 77 - 66 84%
 Tue, Feb 10 29 North Carolina W 79 - 77 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 24 @North Carolina St. L 77 - 82 32%
 Tue, Feb 17 64 Virginia Tech W 81 - 73 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 17 @Virginia L 72 - 78 28%
 Tue, Feb 24 117 @Florida St. W 89 - 81 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 151 Boston College W 80 - 63 94%
 Wed, Mar 4 30 @SMU L 79 - 83 36%
 Sat, Mar 7 19 Louisville W 82 - 81 52%
Totals 24 - 7 13 - 5 +14 +8 A- B+ B +6 B C+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.0 4.8 4.3 1.5 0.3 13.3 1st
2nd 0.3 3.3 8.8 6.4 1.7 0.1 20.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 8.9 6.5 1.0 0.0 18.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 6.5 7.3 1.2 0.0 16.0 4th
5th 0.2 3.6 6.5 1.6 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.1 1.9 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.3 3.1 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 6.3 12.2 17.6 21.4 18.5 12.3 6.0 1.7 0.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-1 93.3% 1.5    1.2 0.4 0.0
16-2 72.2% 4.3    2.3 1.8 0.2
15-3 39.3% 4.8    1.5 2.2 0.9 0.1
14-4 11.0% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 5.5 5.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 2.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.7% 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.0% 99.8% 15.5% 84.3% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-3 12.3% 99.6% 10.5% 89.0% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.4 3.9 2.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
14-4 18.5% 98.2% 9.0% 89.2% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.7 5.5 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 98.0%
13-5 21.4% 93.6% 6.8% 86.8% 7.8 0.2 0.8 2.5 4.7 5.3 4.3 2.0 0.4 1.4 93.1%
12-6 17.6% 86.6% 4.3% 82.3% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.5 4.3 3.7 1.2 0.0 2.4 86.0%
11-7 12.2% 72.6% 2.2% 70.4% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.0 2.0 0.0 3.4 72.0%
10-8 6.3% 54.3% 1.3% 53.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.0 2.9 53.7%
9-9 2.5% 37.7% 0.8% 36.9% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 1.6 37.2%
8-10 1.0% 19.6% 19.6% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 19.6%
7-11 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 4.8%
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 87.1% 6.8% 80.3% 7.5 12.9 86.1%