Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.9 #13
Expected Predictive Rating +21.1 #12
Pace 67.0 #238
Improvement +0.9 #133

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #57 C+ A+ C- A- C-
Defense #2 A+ A+ C+ B+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #157 1.25 #87 +2.1 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #103 0.72 #223 +0.9 #128
Three Pointers 37% #270 1.07 #117 -1.1 #231
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #128 +2.0 #129
Freethrows 20.5 #36 75% #117 15.4 #36
Second Chance 41.2% #5 1.08 #135 0.45 #20
Turnovers 17.5% #234
Total Offense +6.2 #57

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #351 0.93 #6 +8.9 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #128 0.63 #28 +0.8 #137
Three Pointers 49% #18 0.89 #41 -1.0 #223
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #5 +8.7 #6
Freethrows 14.0 #36 72% #163 10.1 #330
Second Chance 20.3% #1 0.69 #1 0.14 #1
Turnovers 17.8% #106
Total Defense +12.8 #2

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #241 -1.7% #56
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.7% #112 -15.7% #6
Possession Length 16.3 #91 18.8 #352
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.32 #4 0.16 #133
Improvement -0.9 #235 +1.8 #83

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
#1 Seed 5.7% 7.5% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 18.5% 23.0% 9.4%
Top 4 Seed 69.7% 77.0% 55.0%
Top 6 Seed 94.5% 96.8% 89.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Average Seed 3.9 3.6 4.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.8% 98.5%
Conference Champion 9.5% 12.3% 3.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.6%
Second Round90.2% 92.2% 86.3%
Sweet Sixteen55.7% 59.2% 48.7%
Elite Eight25.9% 28.3% 21.2%
Final Four12.0% 13.4% 9.2%
Championship Game5.1% 5.7% 3.8%
National Champion2.2% 2.5% 1.6%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 67.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 19 - 7
Quad 27 - 116 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 8
Quad 46 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 215 Colgate W 80 - 69 98% +6  1 - 0 +5 +4 F A+ C +1 D A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 26 Arkansas W 69 - 66 74% +2  2 - 0 +15 +1 F B+ F +14 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 13 227 San Jose St. W 79 - 60 98% +14  3 - 0 +12 +6 D B- A+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 25 Kentucky W 83 - 66 63% +11  4 - 0 +33 +17 A+ C C- +15 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 273 Detroit Mercy W 84 - 56 99% +16  5 - 0 +19 +7 D A+ F +12 B- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 262 East Carolina W 89 - 56 98% +22  6 - 0 +27 +13 A- A- B+ +13 C A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 29 North Carolina W 74 - 58 66% +4  7 - 0 +31 +19 A+ A+ D- +14 A+ A+ C
 Tue, Dec 2 22 Iowa W 71 - 52 72% +12  8 - 0 1 - 0 +32 +19 D A+ D+ +17 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 7 Duke L 60 - 66 55% -0  8 - 1 +12 +1 F C+ A+ +10 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 99 @Penn St. W 76 - 72 84% +1  9 - 1 2 - 0 +12 +6 C A- F +6 A A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 16 164 Toledo W 92 - 69 97% +20  10 - 1 +19 +13 B+ A+ D- +6 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 135 Oakland W 79 - 70 94% +4  11 - 1 +10 +4 F A D+ +7 C+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 193 Cornell W 114 - 97 98% +6  12 - 1 +12 +14 A C C -5 C- A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 16 @Nebraska L 56 - 58 44% -1  12 - 2 2 - 1 +18 -2 C B F +20 A+ A+ C-
 Mon, Jan 5 47 USC W 80 - 51 84% +14  13 - 2 3 - 1 +37 +10 A+ D- B- +27 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 63 Northwestern W 76 - 66 89% +0  14 - 2 4 - 1 +16 +8 B- A+ F +8 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 31 Indiana W 81 - 60 77% +5  15 - 2 5 - 1 +32 +18 A+ A+ F +15 A- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 46 @Washington W 73 - 68 67%
 Tue, Jan 20 72 @Oregon W 74 - 66 78%
 Sat, Jan 24 112 Maryland W 78 - 60 96%
 Tue, Jan 27 124 @Rutgers W 74 - 60 90%
 Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 72 - 76 37%
 Wed, Feb 4 76 @Minnesota W 69 - 61 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 8 Illinois W 72 - 71 55%
 Fri, Feb 13 39 @Wisconsin W 74 - 71 60%
 Tue, Feb 17 38 UCLA W 73 - 64 79%
 Sun, Feb 22 36 Ohio St. W 75 - 67 78%
 Thu, Feb 26 3 @Purdue L 67 - 73 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 31 @Indiana W 73 - 71 56%
 Thu, Mar 5 124 Rutgers W 77 - 57 96%
 Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 69 - 79 19%
Totals 24 - 7 14 - 6 +19 +6 C+ A+ C- +13 A+ A+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.1 2.1 0.3 9.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.7 6.8 2.5 0.2 13.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.0 8.9 4.3 0.2 17.8 3rd
4th 0.3 3.7 10.2 6.4 0.7 0.0 21.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 8.5 6.1 1.2 0.0 18.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.4 3.6 0.7 9.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 4.8 10.3 16.9 21.3 20.6 14.4 6.8 2.2 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 92.6% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.0
17-3 59.8% 4.1    1.4 2.0 0.6 0.0
16-4 18.7% 2.7    0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1
15-5 1.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.5% 9.5 3.6 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
18-2 2.2% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 100.0%
17-3 6.8% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.1 1.9 2.7 1.8 0.4 100.0%
16-4 14.4% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 2.7 1.6 4.5 5.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 20.6% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 3.3 0.8 3.1 8.1 7.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 21.3% 100.0% 7.2% 92.8% 3.9 0.1 1.2 5.9 8.9 4.3 0.9 0.1 100.0%
13-7 16.9% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 4.5 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.7 5.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 10.3% 99.9% 3.0% 96.9% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.8 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 4.8% 99.7% 1.6% 98.1% 6.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-10 1.8% 98.1% 1.6% 96.5% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1%
9-11 0.5% 96.0% 1.0% 95.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.0%
8-12 0.1% 81.0% 81.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.0%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 9.0% 90.9% 3.9 0.1 99.9%