Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.1#12
Expected Predictive Rating+24.4#4
Pace66.6#265
Improvement+3.0#13

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#37
First Shot+4.5#59
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#27
Layup/Dunks+4.1#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#19
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#313
Freethrows+0.4#148
Improvement+2.2#25

Defense
Total Defense+10.4#4
First Shot+8.2#12
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#59
Layups/Dunks+8.5#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#281
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
Freethrows+2.2#62
Improvement+0.8#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.5% 3.2% 1.0%
#1 Seed 13.9% 16.5% 7.4%
Top 2 Seed 33.2% 38.5% 20.1%
Top 4 Seed 69.1% 75.2% 54.0%
Top 6 Seed 88.7% 92.0% 80.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.5% 99.3% 96.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.4% 99.2% 96.5%
Average Seed 3.7 3.4 4.5
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 95.6% 85.9%
Conference Champion 8.6% 10.9% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 0.6% 2.0%
First Round98.1% 99.0% 95.8%
Second Round85.8% 88.6% 78.8%
Sweet Sixteen53.7% 57.6% 44.2%
Elite Eight26.7% 29.6% 19.4%
Final Four12.6% 14.4% 8.3%
Championship Game5.8% 6.6% 3.7%
National Champion2.5% 3.0% 1.5%

Next Game: Iowa (Home) - 71.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 29 - 7
Quad 26 - 116 - 8
Quad 35 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 182 Colgate W 80-69 97%     1 - 0 +6.5 +5.2 +1.4
  Sat, Nov 8 25 Arkansas W 69-66 75%     2 - 0 +14.2 +3.2 +11.1
  Thu, Nov 13 187 San Jose St. W 79-60 97%     3 - 0 +14.2 +8.1 +7.2
  Tue, Nov 18 16 Kentucky W 83-66 52%     4 - 0 +34.7 +17.2 +17.2
  Fri, Nov 21 328 Detroit Mercy W 84-56 99%     5 - 0 +15.6 +6.9 +9.3
  Tue, Nov 25 259 East Carolina W 89-56 97%     6 - 0 +27.7 +13.0 +13.7
  Thu, Nov 27 26 North Carolina W 74-58 65%     7 - 0 +30.1 +19.2 +13.4
  Tue, Dec 2 21 Iowa W 71-65 71%    
  Sat, Dec 6 2 Duke L 70-72 44%    
  Sat, Dec 13 100 @Penn St. W 76-66 83%    
  Tue, Dec 16 173 Toledo W 85-63 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 138 Oakland W 85-68 94%    
  Mon, Dec 29 161 Cornell W 88-66 98%    
  Fri, Jan 2 43 @Nebraska W 75-72 62%    
  Mon, Jan 5 31 USC W 79-71 76%    
  Thu, Jan 8 56 Northwestern W 76-64 85%    
  Tue, Jan 13 22 Indiana W 74-68 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 48 @Washington W 73-68 66%    
  Tue, Jan 20 80 @Oregon W 75-67 76%    
  Sat, Jan 24 93 Maryland W 79-63 92%    
  Tue, Jan 27 120 @Rutgers W 74-62 86%    
  Fri, Jan 30 1 Michigan L 71-76 34%    
  Wed, Feb 4 103 @Minnesota W 71-60 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 13 Illinois W 76-73 62%    
  Fri, Feb 13 27 @Wisconsin W 74-73 54%    
  Tue, Feb 17 32 UCLA W 71-63 75%    
  Sun, Feb 22 20 Ohio St. W 76-70 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 3 @Purdue L 68-75 26%    
  Sun, Mar 1 22 @Indiana W 71-70 50%    
  Thu, Mar 5 120 Rutgers W 77-59 95%    
  Sun, Mar 8 1 @Michigan L 68-79 18%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.9 2.6 1.0 0.2 8.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.4 5.5 3.3 0.6 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 4.8 6.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.6 6.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.7 2.4 0.3 11.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.9 0.4 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 2.9 0.7 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.2 3.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.5 6.5 9.5 12.3 15.1 14.8 13.1 10.5 6.7 3.2 1.0 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
18-2 81.8% 2.6    1.7 0.9 0.1
17-3 43.1% 2.9    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 15.1% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.6% 8.6 4.4 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.0% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 1.2 0.8 0.2 100.0%
18-2 3.2% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 1.3 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.7% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.6 3.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.5% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 1.9 3.7 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.1% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 2.4 2.3 5.2 4.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.8% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 3.0 0.9 3.7 5.6 3.4 1.0 0.1 100.0%
13-7 15.1% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 3.6 0.4 1.7 4.9 5.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-8 12.3% 100.0% 3.2% 96.8% 4.5 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.8 3.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 9.5% 99.8% 1.9% 97.9% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.1 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-10 6.5% 99.8% 1.4% 98.5% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-11 3.5% 97.0% 0.4% 96.6% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 97.0%
8-12 2.2% 85.0% 0.9% 84.1% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.3 84.9%
7-13 0.9% 49.6% 0.7% 48.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 49.3%
6-14 0.4% 15.3% 15.3% 11.0 0.1 0.3 15.3%
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.5% 8.2% 90.3% 3.7 13.9 19.4 20.1 15.8 11.8 7.8 4.1 2.3 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.0 1.5 98.4%