Oregon
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 #72
Expected Predictive Rating +4.4 #102
Pace 68.3 #214
Improvement +0.2 #174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #77 C A C- C+ B-
Defense #83 B B- C- B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.12 #231 -1.4 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #299 0.82 #89 -1.7 #262
Three Pointers 48% #54 1.04 #150 +4.1 #53
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #151 +1.0 #152
Freethrows 18.8 #112 72% #198 13.5 #129
Second Chance 38.6% #21 1.12 #90 0.43 #26
Turnovers 17.6% #244
Total Offense +4.5 #77

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #326 1.01 #26 +6.0 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #42 0.85 #308 -3.3 #355
Three Pointers 42% #166 0.95 #103 +1.1 #137
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #63 +3.8 #63
Freethrows 14.8 #64 76% #314 11.3 #269
Second Chance 29.5% #132 0.98 #100 0.29 #109
Turnovers 15.9% #216
Total Defense +3.3 #83

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #97 -2.3% #29
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #167 -5.3% #83
Possession Length 17.3 #171 17.7 #248
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #214 0.18 #211
Improvement +1.2 #111 -1.0 #242

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 4.8% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.1% 4.8% 0.7%
Average Seed 10.3 10.3 10.3
.500 or above 6.7% 20.8% 5.4%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 8.2% 1.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.4% 3.8% 13.2%
First Four0.6% 2.5% 0.4%
First Round0.8% 3.5% 0.5%
Second Round0.3% 1.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Home) - 8.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 13
Quad 23 - 65 - 18
Quad 33 - 17 - 19
Quad 45 - 013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 104 Hawaii W 60 - 59 72% +3  1 - 0 +3 -12 D- A F +15 A+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 247 Rice W 67 - 63 92% +0  2 - 0 -4 -7 F A C- +3 B- B- A
 Wed, Nov 12 176 South Dakota St. W 83 - 69 87% +5  3 - 0 +10 +7 B- B+ B +3 B- A- C-
 Mon, Nov 17 189 Oregon St. W 87 - 75 88% +7  4 - 0 +7 +14 A- A+ C -6 C+ D+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 27 Auburn L 73 - 84 24% -3  4 - 1 +4 +4 D- A+ F -0 A+ C F
 Tue, Nov 25 52 San Diego St. L 80 - 97 40% -10  4 - 2 -7 +13 A+ D+ B+ -20 F D- A+
 Thu, Nov 27 43 Creighton L 66 - 76 34% -6  4 - 3 +2 -0 F A- B- +2 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 47 USC L 77 - 82 48% +1  4 - 4 0 - 1 +3 +9 A A+ F -6 D D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 38 @UCLA L 63 - 74 22% -8  4 - 5 0 - 2 +5 +7 F A+ B+ -4 C+ D C+
 Sat, Dec 13 188 UC Davis W 104 - 62 88% +30  5 - 5 +37 +24 A+ A+ C +12 A+ A- B-
 Wed, Dec 17 233 Portland W 94 - 69 91% +11  6 - 5 +18 +7 A+ C+ D- +8 A B B-
 Sun, Dec 21 10 Gonzaga L 82 - 91 13% -4  6 - 6 +11 +20 A+ A+ A+ -10 B A F
 Sun, Dec 28 258 Nebraska Omaha W 80 - 57 93% +11  7 - 6 +15 +9 B C C+ +8 A+ C D-
 Fri, Jan 2 112 @Maryland W 64 - 54 54% +5  8 - 6 1 - 2 +17 +1 B- C- F +17 A+ A+ D
 Mon, Jan 5 124 @Rutgers L 85 - 88 OT 60% +1  8 - 7 1 - 3 +2 +11 C+ A+ F -8 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 36 Ohio St. L 62 - 72 39% -8  8 - 8 1 - 4 +1 -0 F B+ A+ -0 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 16 @Nebraska L 55 - 90 12% -14  8 - 9 1 - 5 -15 -3 B- C- F -15 F D- F
 Sun, Jan 18 1 Michigan L 72 - 87 8%
 Tue, Jan 20 13 Michigan St. L 66 - 74 22%
 Sun, Jan 25 46 @Washington L 72 - 78 27%
 Wed, Jan 28 38 UCLA L 72 - 74 41%
 Sun, Feb 1 22 Iowa L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 3 @Purdue L 66 - 83 5%
 Mon, Feb 9 31 @Indiana L 72 - 81 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 99 Penn St. W 79 - 73 70%
 Tue, Feb 17 76 Minnesota W 70 - 67 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 47 @USC L 74 - 80 28%
 Wed, Feb 25 39 Wisconsin L 76 - 78 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 63 @Northwestern L 72 - 76 36%
 Tue, Mar 3 8 @Illinois L 68 - 84 8%
 Sat, Mar 7 46 Washington L 74 - 75 48%
Totals 12 - 19 5 - 15 +8 +4 C A C- +3 B B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.3 2.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.1 0.1 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.6 2.9 0.3 0.0 7.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 4.0 6.1 1.4 0.0 11.9 13th
14th 0.5 5.2 9.5 3.2 0.2 18.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 4.2 9.5 5.0 0.4 0.0 19.4 15th
16th 0.1 2.5 7.8 5.4 0.7 16.6 16th
17th 0.1 1.6 5.5 3.8 0.7 0.0 11.6 17th
18th 0.7 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.9 18th
Total 0.8 3.7 10.0 16.8 21.2 19.7 14.0 8.2 3.7 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 85.0% 85.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.0%
11-9 0.4% 72.9% 72.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 72.9%
10-10 1.5% 29.3% 0.3% 29.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.1 29.1%
9-11 3.7% 5.0% 0.1% 4.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5 4.9%
8-12 8.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.3%
7-13 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 14.0 0.0%
6-14 19.7% 19.7
5-15 21.2% 21.2
4-16 16.8% 16.8
3-17 10.0% 10.0
2-18 3.7% 3.7
1-19 0.8% 0.8
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 10.3 98.9 1.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%