Queens
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 #202
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #181
Pace 71.0 #125
Improvement +0.9 #136

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #92 B C+ C C B-
Defense #343 D- C- D- C D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #233 1.24 #95 +0.4 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #312 0.82 #92 -2.0 #277
Three Pointers 49% #33 1.06 #127 +5.3 #30
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #81 +3.7 #80
Freethrows 17.1 #206 75% #94 12.9 #164
Second Chance 30.0% #209 1.15 #63 0.35 #122
Turnovers 16.5% #173
Total Offense +3.6 #92

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #35 1.17 #194 -3.9 #308
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #303 0.79 #245 +1.2 #107
Three Pointers 39% #240 1.17 #343 -2.0 #268
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #320 -4.6 #319
Freethrows 18.1 #222 72% #138 13.0 #150
Second Chance 34.0% #300 1.01 #132 0.34 #245
Turnovers 13.8% #326
Total Defense -6.0 #343

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #90 2.0% #339
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.8% #88 6.9% #304
Possession Length 16.1 #74 18.3 #322
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #178 0.19 #247
Improvement +0.0 #178 +0.8 #134

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 21.8% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.8 15.1
.500 or above 83.8% 93.1% 77.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.1% 99.5% 97.3%
Conference Champion 38.6% 52.0% 30.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.8% 1.6%
First Round17.7% 21.4% 15.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 39.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 417 - 418 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 143 Winthrop L 74 - 81 37% -2  0 - 1 -6 -2 F B- F -3 A F D+
 Sat, Nov 8 34 @Villanova L 74 - 94 5% -12  0 - 2 -3 +10 A+ F F -14 B- F F
 Tue, Nov 11 132 @Duquesne L 81 - 87 OT 25% -9  0 - 3 -1 -6 D+ F D- +6 B- A+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 285 Sacred Heart W 81 - 64 77% +13  1 - 3 +7 +2 A C- F +5 C+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 288 UNC Greensboro W 101 - 94 77% +8  2 - 3 -3 +24 A+ B+ A+ -27 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 147 @Furman L 79 - 90 28% -11  2 - 4 -7 +17 B A+ A+ -26 F B F
 Fri, Nov 28 17 @Virginia L 69 - 94 3% -12  2 - 5 -5 +11 C A+ D -18 F A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 362 Gardner-Webb W 107 - 74 93% +14  3 - 5 +14 +20 A+ A C+ -8 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 12 361 South Carolina St. W 102 - 78 92% +19  4 - 5 +6 +19 B C A+ -14 F F D
 Sun, Dec 14 57 @Wake Forest L 73 - 111 9% -19  4 - 6 -26 +5 B+ D+ A- -30 F D D
 Tue, Dec 16 26 @Arkansas L 80 - 108 4% -20  4 - 7 -10 +4 C+ C+ F -10 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 27 @Auburn L 65 - 106 4% -30  4 - 8 -23 -6 F C C- -15 F C+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 253 Eastern Kentucky W 91 - 89 72% +1  5 - 8 1 - 0 -6 +12 C A+ A+ -18 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 294 Bellarmine W 98 - 76 79% +10  6 - 8 2 - 0 +11 +13 B A- C- -2 F A B-
 Thu, Jan 8 305 @Jacksonville W 77 - 51 62% +15  7 - 8 3 - 0 +21 +9 A+ F D +14 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 350 @North Florida W 89 - 82 77% +2  8 - 8 4 - 0 -3 +5 D+ B+ B- -8 D C F
 Thu, Jan 15 201 @Florida Gulf Coast L 81 - 84 39%
 Sat, Jan 17 345 @Stetson W 83 - 77 73%
 Wed, Jan 21 279 North Alabama W 82 - 75 76%
 Sat, Jan 24 320 @West Georgia W 82 - 78 64%
 Wed, Jan 28 265 Central Arkansas W 83 - 77 72%
 Sat, Jan 31 294 @Bellarmine W 84 - 82 59%
 Thu, Feb 5 305 Jacksonville W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 350 North Florida W 95 - 81 90%
 Wed, Feb 11 180 Austin Peay W 80 - 78 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 167 Lipscomb W 82 - 81 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 279 @North Alabama W 79 - 78 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 320 West Georgia W 85 - 75 82%
 Wed, Feb 25 253 @Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 81 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 265 @Central Arkansas W 80 - 79 51%
Totals 17 - 13 13 - 5 -2 +4 B C+ C -6 D- C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.8 10.6 11.0 7.5 3.1 0.6 38.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 6.5 10.5 7.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.9 7.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.2 1.5 0.1 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 4.2 5th
6th 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.2 6.5 11.2 16.1 18.5 18.0 13.2 7.8 3.1 0.6 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 99.7% 3.1    3.1 0.1
16-2 96.5% 7.5    6.6 0.9 0.0
15-3 82.8% 11.0    8.1 2.7 0.2
14-4 58.6% 10.6    5.2 4.4 0.9 0.0
13-5 25.9% 4.8    1.4 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.2% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.6% 38.6 25.1 10.5 2.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 44.5% 44.5% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-1 3.1% 36.0% 36.0% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 2.0
16-2 7.8% 29.5% 29.5% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.0 5.5
15-3 13.2% 24.9% 24.9% 14.8 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.3 9.9
14-4 18.0% 21.6% 21.6% 15.1 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.8 14.1
13-5 18.5% 17.4% 17.4% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.9 1.1 15.2
12-6 16.1% 13.8% 13.8% 15.5 0.1 1.0 1.1 13.9
11-7 11.2% 10.2% 10.2% 15.7 0.3 0.8 10.1
10-8 6.5% 7.7% 7.7% 15.9 0.0 0.5 6.0
9-9 3.2% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.2 3.0
8-10 1.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-11 0.4% 6.2% 6.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 15.0 81.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.7 5.7 30.2 49.1 15.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%