Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#36
Expected Predictive Rating+9.8#65
Pace68.2#232
Improvement+0.1#167

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#27
First Shot+5.6#44
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#43
Layup/Dunks+4.2#48
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#256
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#257
Freethrows+5.0#7
Improvement+2.1#28

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#64
First Shot+2.0#107
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#61
Layups/Dunks+2.2#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#119
Freethrows-0.8#239
Improvement-2.0#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 5.9% 7.7% 2.7%
Top 6 Seed 16.9% 21.2% 9.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.6% 60.9% 41.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.2% 59.5% 40.0%
Average Seed 7.6 7.4 8.1
.500 or above 80.4% 87.0% 69.1%
.500 or above in Conference 54.5% 59.0% 46.9%
Conference Champion 3.4% 4.1% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 3.0% 5.4%
First Four6.6% 6.3% 7.1%
First Round50.5% 57.9% 37.6%
Second Round30.4% 35.7% 21.4%
Sweet Sixteen10.8% 12.9% 7.2%
Elite Eight4.0% 4.8% 2.6%
Final Four1.5% 1.8% 0.9%
Championship Game0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Home) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 24 - 39 - 13
Quad 32 - 111 - 13
Quad 47 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 2 Duke L 60-75 17%     0 - 1 +7.8 +1.1 +5.9
  Sat, Nov 8 327 Lafayette W 97-60 98%     1 - 1 +24.6 +19.7 +5.5
  Wed, Nov 12 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93-58 99%     2 - 1 +17.6 +6.4 +9.7
  Sat, Nov 15 335 UMKC W 71-55 98%     3 - 1 +2.5 +0.9 +3.4
  Tue, Nov 18 343 Rider W 99-65 99%     4 - 1 +19.6 +14.1 +3.3
  Mon, Nov 24 83 Arizona St. L 86-87 71%     4 - 2 +5.9 +9.0 -3.0
  Wed, Nov 26 29 North Carolina St. W 102-97 46%     5 - 2 +18.5 +29.3 -11.0
  Wed, Dec 3 39 Virginia W 77-73 63%    
  Mon, Dec 8 197 Southern W 87-69 95%    
  Fri, Dec 12 8 @Connecticut L 69-79 18%    
  Tue, Dec 16 336 Le Moyne W 91-65 99%    
  Mon, Dec 22 339 Maryland Eastern Shore W 80-54 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 84 Mississippi St. W 81-72 79%    
  Tue, Jan 6 14 @Tennessee L 71-79 23%    
  Sat, Jan 10 10 @Alabama L 81-90 20%    
  Wed, Jan 14 19 Vanderbilt L 79-80 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 60 Texas A&M W 82-76 71%    
  Wed, Jan 21 16 @Kentucky L 74-82 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 34 Georgia W 84-82 58%    
  Wed, Jan 28 23 @Auburn L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Jan 31 52 @Oklahoma L 78-79 48%    
  Tue, Feb 3 88 South Carolina W 78-69 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 49 Mississippi W 77-72 68%    
  Sat, Feb 14 33 @Missouri L 76-80 37%    
  Tue, Feb 17 40 LSU W 80-76 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 34 @Georgia L 81-85 38%    
  Wed, Feb 25 17 Florida L 77-79 45%    
  Sat, Feb 28 60 @Texas A&M W 80-79 51%    
  Wed, Mar 4 25 @Arkansas L 75-80 34%    
  Sat, Mar 7 52 Oklahoma W 81-76 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 2.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.6 3.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.5 2.1 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.3 3.7 3.7 0.4 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 5.3 1.3 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.6 4.1 3.0 0.2 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.8 4.5 0.7 0.0 8.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 4.4 2.1 0.1 7.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 0.9 0.0 6.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 1.3 0.1 4.9 14th
15th 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.5 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.2 5.8 9.3 11.6 13.3 14.1 13.0 10.8 7.2 5.0 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 91.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 77.3% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 46.5% 1.2    0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 13.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 2.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
15-3 1.2% 100.0% 20.6% 79.4% 3.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.6% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 4.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-5 5.0% 99.7% 11.7% 88.1% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 7.2% 99.1% 7.8% 91.3% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-7 10.8% 96.3% 3.9% 92.4% 7.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.9 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 96.1%
10-8 13.0% 87.1% 2.0% 85.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.0 2.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 1.7 86.8%
9-9 14.1% 68.5% 1.2% 67.3% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.0 0.1 4.5 68.1%
8-10 13.3% 34.1% 0.6% 33.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 0.2 8.8 33.7%
7-11 11.6% 9.2% 0.2% 9.0% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 10.5 9.0%
6-12 9.3% 1.5% 0.3% 1.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.2 1.2%
5-13 5.8% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 5.8
4-14 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 53.6% 2.9% 50.7% 7.6 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.2 4.9 6.1 8.0 8.7 7.5 6.5 5.6 0.4 0.0 46.4 52.2%