Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.2 #41
Expected Predictive Rating +9.0 #69
Pace 69.9 #155
Improvement +0.2 #169

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #15 B A+ B+ A+ C+
Defense #97 B- A- D D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.30 #54 +4.3 #50
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #226 0.83 #81 -0.3 #192
Three Pointers 41% #181 1.00 #204 -0.3 #193
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #82 +3.7 #82
Freethrows 23.2 #4 74% #158 17.1 #5
Second Chance 39.4% #12 1.22 #23 0.48 #6
Turnovers 14.1% #45
Total Offense +9.6 #15

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #158 1.07 #81 +1.2 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #27 0.62 #27 -0.7 #233
Three Pointers 33% #350 1.12 #314 +2.2 #97
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #97 +2.7 #96
Freethrows 19.5 #291 73% #195 14.2 #79
Second Chance 25.6% #30 0.94 #58 0.24 #26
Turnovers 14.8% #290
Total Defense +2.6 #97

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #118 -1.6% #59
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.2% #84 -3.6% #111
Possession Length 16.5 #104 18.2 #308
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #9 0.14 #67
Improvement +1.2 #108 -1.0 #243

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 2.2% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 6.3% 12.3% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.0% 60.2% 33.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41.1% 59.0% 33.2%
Average Seed 8.5 8.1 8.8
.500 or above 65.7% 81.4% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 39.5% 58.2% 31.1%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 2.5% 8.4%
First Four8.1% 8.6% 7.9%
First Round38.3% 56.2% 30.3%
Second Round19.8% 30.1% 15.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.1% 8.0% 3.7%
Elite Eight1.8% 2.9% 1.3%
Final Four0.5% 1.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Home) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 11
Quad 23 - 39 - 14
Quad 31 - 110 - 15
Quad 47 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 7 Duke L 60 - 75 21% -5  0 - 1 +6 -0 F A+ F +5 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 326 Lafayette W 97 - 60 98% +18  1 - 1 +24 +20 C+ A+ C +5 A- D A+
 Wed, Nov 12 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99% +17  2 - 1 +19 +8 C+ B+ B+ +9 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 346 UMKC W 71 - 55 99% +11  3 - 1 +1 +0 F C+ A+ +2 A+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 348 Rider W 99 - 65 99% +18  4 - 1 +18 +15 A+ F A+ +1 C+ A D
 Mon, Nov 24 82 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 70% +2  4 - 2 +6 +9 A+ A+ F -4 D+ C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 24 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 37% +4  5 - 2 +21 +33 A+ A+ A+ -12 C+ F F
 Wed, Dec 3 17 Virginia L 69 - 88 43% -6  5 - 3 -5 +7 C A+ A+ -14 C A+ F
 Mon, Dec 8 263 Southern W 95 - 69 96% +17  6 - 3 +17 +17 A- A+ C -1 D- A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 12 4 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 13% -6  6 - 4 +16 +7 C- A+ C+ +9 C- A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 295 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 97% +18  7 - 4 +31 +11 B- A+ F +18 A+ A+ D
 Mon, Dec 22 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 98% +11  8 - 4 +10 +17 A+ D- A- -7 D C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 66 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 74% -1  8 - 5 0 - 1 +2 +13 A- A+ B+ -10 C F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 20 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 24% -11  8 - 6 0 - 2 +5 +12 C+ A+ F -7 F C+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 14 @Alabama W 92 - 88 20% +5  9 - 6 1 - 2 +25 +23 A A+ A+ +2 B+ A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 9 Vanderbilt L 80 - 85 31%
 Sat, Jan 17 40 Texas A&M W 85 - 83 59%
 Wed, Jan 21 25 @Kentucky L 76 - 82 28%
 Sat, Jan 24 23 Georgia L 87 - 88 47%
 Wed, Jan 28 27 @Auburn L 79 - 85 30%
 Sat, Jan 31 54 @Oklahoma L 80 - 81 47%
 Tue, Feb 3 69 South Carolina W 79 - 72 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 65 Mississippi W 79 - 72 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 53 @Missouri L 80 - 81 47%
 Tue, Feb 17 44 LSU W 81 - 78 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 23 @Georgia L 84 - 91 27%
 Wed, Feb 25 12 Florida L 77 - 82 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 40 @Texas A&M L 82 - 86 37%
 Wed, Mar 4 26 @Arkansas L 82 - 88 29%
 Sat, Mar 7 54 Oklahoma W 83 - 78 68%
Totals 16 - 14 8 - 10 +12 +10 B A+ B+ +3 B- A- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 3.2 3rd
4th 0.7 2.7 1.0 0.1 4.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 4.2 0.7 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.6 2.7 0.1 7.9 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 5.3 0.6 9.1 8th
9th 1.0 6.3 2.6 0.1 10.0 9th
10th 0.2 4.1 5.3 0.6 10.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.5 6.1 1.8 0.0 9.6 11th
12th 0.4 4.4 3.7 0.3 0.0 8.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.9 4.5 0.9 0.0 7.5 13th
14th 0.0 1.0 3.2 2.0 0.1 6.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.9 0.3 4.7 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 3.0 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.2 7.7 13.0 16.1 17.4 15.2 11.4 6.9 3.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 86.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 48.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 18.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.5% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 4.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 1.6% 100.0% 10.3% 89.7% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 3.7% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 6.9% 99.0% 4.6% 94.3% 7.3 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
10-8 11.4% 93.0% 2.4% 90.7% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.6 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.8 92.9%
9-9 15.2% 76.2% 1.1% 75.2% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.5 4.3 2.6 0.0 3.6 76.0%
8-10 17.4% 33.5% 0.8% 32.7% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 3.8 0.2 11.6 33.0%
7-11 16.1% 6.8% 0.5% 6.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.1 15.0 6.3%
6-12 13.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.9 0.2%
5-13 7.7% 7.7
4-14 4.2% 4.2
3-15 1.6% 1.6
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 42.0% 1.5% 40.5% 8.5 58.0 41.1%