Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.0#131
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#119
Pace70.2#170
Improvement-2.3#339

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#152
First Shot+0.9#149
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#213
Layup/Dunks+1.3#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#302
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#239
Freethrows+3.2#33
Improvement-1.5#316

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#113
First Shot+2.1#103
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#208
Layups/Dunks+4.9#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#149
Freethrows-1.7#282
Improvement-0.8#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 27.1% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 93.9% 95.1% 84.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 95.7% 91.7%
Conference Champion 37.7% 38.7% 29.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round26.1% 27.1% 18.6%
Second Round2.4% 2.6% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Home) - 89.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 8
Quad 412 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 124 @Kent St. W 103-97 OT 36%     1 - 0 +11.7 +11.9 -1.3
  Fri, Nov 7 160 @Furman W 64-61 48%     2 - 0 +5.5 -6.6 +12.1
  Fri, Nov 14 114 @Loyola Marymount L 63-74 34%     2 - 1 -4.8 -3.6 -1.3
  Sun, Nov 16 220 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-94 60%     2 - 2 -9.7 +8.2 -17.5
  Tue, Nov 18 57 @San Diego St. W 108-107 2OT 16%     3 - 2 +13.5 +16.8 -3.5
  Thu, Nov 20 31 @USC L 106-107 3OT 10%     3 - 3 +15.4 +7.5 +8.2
  Mon, Nov 24 173 Toledo L 68-75 62%     3 - 4 -8.2 -7.6 -0.7
  Wed, Nov 26 359 St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 92%     4 - 4 -3.9 -7.1 +2.7
  Mon, Dec 1 311 West Georgia W 79-66 89%    
  Sun, Dec 14 107 @UAB L 74-79 31%    
  Sat, Dec 20 183 Marshall W 80-73 73%    
  Wed, Dec 31 203 Texas St. W 73-65 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 180 South Alabama W 71-65 72%    
  Wed, Jan 7 172 @Arkansas St. W 79-78 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 304 @Louisiana W 73-66 73%    
  Wed, Jan 14 237 Southern Miss W 78-69 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 172 Arkansas St. W 81-75 71%    
  Wed, Jan 21 216 @Old Dominion W 74-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 246 @Georgia Southern W 79-75 63%    
  Thu, Jan 29 147 James Madison W 77-72 67%    
  Sat, Jan 31 279 Appalachian St. W 73-62 85%    
  Wed, Feb 4 337 @Georgia St. W 77-67 81%    
  Wed, Feb 11 203 @Texas St. W 70-68 56%    
  Sat, Feb 14 237 @Southern Miss W 75-72 62%    
  Wed, Feb 18 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 83-70 88%    
  Sat, Feb 21 180 @South Alabama W 69-68 52%    
  Tue, Feb 24 304 Louisiana W 76-63 87%    
  Fri, Feb 27 361 Louisiana Monroe W 86-67 96%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.5 8.3 10.8 8.9 4.6 1.2 37.7 1st
2nd 0.3 3.5 7.5 6.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 5.9 4.1 0.8 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.4 0.6 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.2 0.1 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.6 7.3 10.5 13.9 15.7 15.3 12.9 9.2 4.7 1.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.2% 4.6    4.5 0.1
16-2 96.3% 8.9    8.1 0.8 0.0
15-3 83.5% 10.8    7.7 2.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 54.3% 8.3    3.8 3.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 22.2% 3.5    0.6 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.7% 37.7 26.0 8.6 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 64.5% 64.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4
17-1 4.7% 52.3% 52.3% 12.1 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 2.2
16-2 9.2% 47.3% 47.3% 12.7 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.5 4.9
15-3 12.9% 42.4% 42.4% 13.0 0.0 1.1 3.1 1.1 0.1 7.5
14-4 15.3% 33.9% 33.9% 13.3 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.8 0.2 10.1
13-5 15.7% 25.3% 25.3% 13.5 0.3 1.7 1.7 0.3 11.7
12-6 13.9% 16.7% 16.7% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 11.6
11-7 10.5% 9.6% 9.6% 14.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.5
10-8 7.3% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.9
9-9 4.6% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
8-10 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.6
7-11 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 1.3
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.5 11.1 7.0 1.5 0.1 73.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.7 3.0 4.0 6.0 15.0 55.0 17.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%