Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.0 #125
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #119
Pace 68.2 #216
Improvement +1.2 #119

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #133 C C C C+ A-
Defense #139 C- C C C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #55 1.08 #279 +1.1 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #328 0.76 #168 -3.2 #326
Three Pointers 44% #127 1.07 #108 +2.8 #93
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #157 +0.7 #164
Freethrows 19.1 #100 70% #275 13.3 #138
Second Chance 33.3% #111 1.01 #223 0.34 #137
Turnovers 17.1% #215
Total Offense +1.2 #133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 1.05 #60 +3.8 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #136 0.89 #334 -1.9 #312
Three Pointers 43% #119 1.10 #296 -3.0 #302
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #215 -1.1 #217
Freethrows 17.0 #173 69% #60 11.8 #226
Second Chance 32.2% #244 1.03 #160 0.33 #206
Turnovers 16.9% #162
Total Defense +0.8 #139

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #26 -0.8% #102
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.0% #190 2.9% #239
Possession Length 17.6 #202 17.2 #179
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #203 0.16 #147
Improvement +1.8 #82 -0.6 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.1% 32.2% 23.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 98.6% 99.3% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 98.0%
Conference Champion 48.6% 54.5% 28.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.1% 32.2% 23.1%
Second Round2.0% 2.3% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Home) - 77.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 2
Quad 35 - 58 - 8
Quad 412 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 146 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 43% +8  1 - 0 +10 +11 A+ C+ B -2 A- F D
 Fri, Nov 7 147 @Furman W 64 - 61 43% +7  2 - 0 +7 -5 C- F F +12 A- B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 130 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 40% -3  2 - 1 -6 -5 C D F -2 F A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 16 216 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 58% -4  2 - 2 -9 +8 A- F A+ -17 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 52 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 14% +3  3 - 2 +14 +19 C+ A+ A+ -5 C+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 47 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 13% -2  3 - 3 +13 +7 D+ A+ D +6 A A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 164 Toledo L 68 - 75 60% -2  3 - 4 -8 -7 F F C+ -1 B- D B-
 Wed, Nov 26 360 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 93% -2  4 - 4 -5 -8 F D F +3 D B- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 320 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 90% +0  4 - 5 -16 -7 C+ F F -9 D B- F
 Sun, Dec 14 115 @UAB W 86 - 85 32% +0  5 - 5 +8 +19 A+ A+ A+ -11 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 171 Marshall W 70 - 63 71% +6  6 - 5 1 - 0 +3 -5 F C F +8 A+ A B-
 Wed, Dec 31 261 Texas St. W 100 - 80 84% +8  7 - 5 2 - 0 +11 +27 A+ A+ A+ -15 F F C
 Sat, Jan 3 190 South Alabama W 59 - 49 74% +5  8 - 5 3 - 0 +5 -3 F F C+ +11 A+ C B
 Wed, Jan 7 133 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 40% -10  8 - 6 3 - 1 -8 -2 D F C -5 F C B+
 Sat, Jan 10 315 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 78% +16  9 - 6 4 - 1 +14 +25 B A+ F -9 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 210 Southern Miss W 77 - 69 77%
 Sat, Jan 17 133 Arkansas St. W 81 - 78 63%
 Wed, Jan 21 244 @Old Dominion W 77 - 73 64%
 Sat, Jan 24 230 @Georgia Southern W 81 - 78 60%
 Thu, Jan 29 213 James Madison W 76 - 68 77%
 Sat, Jan 31 223 Appalachian St. W 71 - 63 78%
 Wed, Feb 4 290 @Georgia St. W 76 - 70 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 67 Akron L 80 - 83 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 261 @Texas St. W 74 - 69 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 210 @Southern Miss W 74 - 72 57%
 Wed, Feb 18 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 72 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 190 @South Alabama W 69 - 68 53%
 Tue, Feb 24 315 Louisiana W 74 - 60 90%
 Fri, Feb 27 354 Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 69 95%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 +2 +1 C C C +1 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.9 14.1 15.5 9.5 2.8 48.6 1st
2nd 0.5 5.3 10.5 6.5 1.7 0.1 24.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 6.0 3.3 0.3 11.7 3rd
4th 0.6 3.8 2.3 0.2 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 3.7 5th
6th 0.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 4.1 8.7 14.6 19.8 20.9 17.2 9.5 2.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8
16-2 99.4% 9.5    8.8 0.6 0.0
15-3 90.0% 15.5    11.9 3.5 0.1
14-4 67.5% 14.1    7.2 5.8 1.0 0.0
13-5 29.8% 5.9    1.3 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.6% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 48.6% 48.6 32.0 12.7 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.8% 50.5% 50.5% 11.9 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4
16-2 9.5% 47.4% 47.4% 12.6 0.1 2.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.0
15-3 17.2% 41.5% 41.5% 12.9 0.0 1.9 4.1 1.1 0.0 10.1
14-4 20.9% 36.7% 36.7% 13.1 0.0 1.3 4.3 2.0 0.1 13.2
13-5 19.8% 26.5% 26.5% 13.3 0.4 2.8 1.8 0.2 14.6
12-6 14.6% 18.7% 18.7% 13.6 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.3 11.9
11-7 8.7% 11.4% 11.4% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 7.7
10-8 4.1% 8.5% 8.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.8
9-9 1.6% 2.8% 2.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 1.5
8-10 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-11 0.2% 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.1% 30.1% 0.0% 13.0 69.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.5 50.0 47.9 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%