UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#113
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#114
Pace63.0#334
Improvement+0.5#137

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#103
First Shot-0.7#193
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#26
Layup/Dunks+2.0#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#293
Freethrows+1.0#123
Improvement+0.7#114

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#153
First Shot+0.0#162
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#159
Layups/Dunks+6.3#23
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#324
Freethrows+3.0#31
Improvement-0.2#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.4% 25.0% 19.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.3
.500 or above 97.5% 98.7% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 92.7% 87.3%
Conference Champion 32.8% 35.5% 25.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.4% 25.0% 19.1%
Second Round2.9% 3.2% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 46 - 6
Quad 416 - 223 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 124 @Kent St. L 77-86 40%     0 - 1 -3.3 +2.7 -5.7
  Sat, Nov 15 316 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 91%     1 - 1 +1.7 +5.3 -1.9
  Tue, Nov 18 259 East Carolina W 85-60 86%     2 - 1 +16.7 +13.9 +3.9
  Fri, Nov 21 273 @Radford W 81-73 73%     3 - 1 +4.9 +6.0 -1.1
  Wed, Nov 26 250 SE Louisiana W 70-57 85%     4 - 1 +5.1 +4.9 +1.8
  Fri, Nov 28 159 Navy W 73-66 73%    
  Sat, Nov 29 356 Gardner-Webb W 84-65 97%    
  Wed, Dec 3 183 Marshall W 78-70 77%    
  Sat, Dec 6 304 @Louisiana W 71-63 77%    
  Sat, Dec 13 268 @Valparaiso W 71-65 71%    
  Sat, Dec 20 315 Howard W 79-64 91%    
  Mon, Dec 29 313 @N.C. A&T W 76-68 77%    
  Wed, Dec 31 262 Drexel W 73-61 86%    
  Sat, Jan 3 235 Hampton W 73-63 83%    
  Thu, Jan 8 200 @Northeastern W 71-68 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 251 @Stony Brook W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 219 Campbell W 78-68 81%    
  Thu, Jan 22 130 @William & Mary L 77-79 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 235 @Hampton W 70-66 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 128 @Towson L 65-67 43%    
  Thu, Feb 5 130 William & Mary W 80-76 64%    
  Mon, Feb 9 151 @College of Charleston W 71-70 51%    
  Thu, Feb 12 190 Elon W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 162 Hofstra W 73-66 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 201 Monmouth W 74-65 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 219 @Campbell W 75-71 63%    
  Thu, Feb 26 313 N.C. A&T W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 151 College of Charleston W 73-67 72%    
  Tue, Mar 3 190 @Elon W 74-72 57%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.2 7.6 9.2 7.0 3.2 0.8 32.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 4.5 7.1 5.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.0 2.8 0.6 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 4.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 2.0 0.2 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.1 6.9 9.1 11.4 13.9 14.6 13.2 11.0 7.3 3.2 0.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.8% 3.2    3.1 0.0
16-2 95.6% 7.0    6.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 83.7% 9.2    6.9 2.2 0.1
14-4 57.4% 7.6    4.0 2.9 0.6 0.0
13-5 29.1% 4.2    1.3 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.1% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.8% 32.8 22.6 7.8 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 55.9% 55.0% 0.9% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.9%
17-1 3.2% 52.6% 52.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5
16-2 7.3% 41.9% 41.9% 12.2 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.2
15-3 11.0% 37.0% 37.0% 12.6 0.1 1.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.9
14-4 13.2% 31.4% 31.4% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.0 9.1
13-5 14.6% 26.4% 26.4% 13.2 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.2 0.2 10.7
12-6 13.9% 20.4% 20.4% 13.5 0.2 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 11.0
11-7 11.4% 15.4% 15.4% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 9.7
10-8 9.1% 10.2% 10.2% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 8.1
9-9 6.9% 6.8% 6.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.4
8-10 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.9
7-11 2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.5
6-12 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.6
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 6.6 8.7 5.2 1.4 0.2 76.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 9.3 2.5 2.5 8.8 16.3 10.0 6.3 5.0 32.5 16.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 4.5% 10.0 4.5