UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.7 #118
Expected Predictive Rating +5.8 #87
Pace 64.1 #315
Improvement -1.9 #278

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #128 D B C+ C+ D+
Defense #125 B- C+ F A A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #285 1.09 #262 -3.4 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #112 0.68 #278 +0.4 #155
Three Pointers 41% #177 0.97 #236 -0.7 #209
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #285 -3.7 #284
Freethrows 18.6 #121 73% #177 13.5 #130
Second Chance 36.2% #39 1.07 #152 0.39 #68
Turnovers 15.7% #123
Total Offense +1.4 #128

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #350 1.25 #290 +4.1 #57
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #50 0.77 #196 -2.0 #322
Three Pointers 45% #60 0.89 #42 +0.6 #153
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #96 +2.7 #97
Freethrows 12.5 #15 75% #279 9.3 #343
Second Chance 27.7% #82 1.09 #249 0.30 #138
Turnovers 13.5% #335
Total Defense +1.3 #125

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #279 -2.6% #22
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.9% #270 -2.7% #134
Possession Length 19.0 #336 17.3 #195
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #347 0.18 #213
Improvement -3.3 #342 +1.4 #97

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.0% 21.9% 18.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.6% 97.1%
Conference Champion 37.7% 42.5% 22.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.0% 21.9% 18.0%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 37 - 48 - 6
Quad 416 - 224 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 146 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 45% -8  0 - 1 -5 +2 F A- A+ -7 F B F
 Sat, Nov 15 299 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 90% +8  1 - 1 +2 +7 D A+ D+ -3 B D C
 Tue, Nov 18 262 East Carolina W 85 - 60 86% +12  2 - 1 +16 +14 A+ C- C +3 B+ B+ F
 Fri, Nov 21 254 @Radford W 81 - 73 69% +8  3 - 1 +6 +5 B+ B F +0 D A- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 266 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 86% -1  4 - 1 +4 +4 F D+ A+ +2 B- A- F
 Fri, Nov 28 200 Navy W 87 - 57 78% +21  5 - 1 +25 +20 A+ A+ F +6 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 362 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 97% +12  6 - 1 +7 +7 B- D- A+ +0 C- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 171 Marshall W 70 - 69 74% +1  7 - 1 -3 +3 F B A+ -6 B+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 315 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 80% +3  8 - 1 +1 +3 D C C- -2 C D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 184 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 55% -2  9 - 1 +4 +9 F A+ A- -5 A+ F F
 Sat, Dec 20 275 Howard L 66 - 67 87% -4  9 - 2 -11 -5 F A C- -5 C D- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 302 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 78% -1  10 - 2 1 - 0 +4 +6 C C- D- -3 D+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 238 Drexel W 65 - 53 83% +8  11 - 2 2 - 0 +5 +1 F B A+ +6 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 242 Hampton W 49 - 45 83% +4  12 - 2 3 - 0 -4 -17 F D D +14 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 236 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 64% +1  13 - 2 4 - 0 +8 +8 F B C -0 C B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 274 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 72% -8  14 - 2 5 - 0 +1 +7 C+ A+ C -6 C F D
 Sat, Jan 17 191 Campbell W 79 - 71 76%
 Thu, Jan 22 138 @William & Mary L 75 - 77 44%
 Sat, Jan 24 242 @Hampton W 69 - 65 67%
 Thu, Jan 29 166 @Towson W 66 - 65 52%
 Thu, Feb 5 138 William & Mary W 78 - 74 66%
 Mon, Feb 9 155 @College of Charleston L 72 - 73 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 169 Elon W 78 - 71 73%
 Sat, Feb 14 110 Hofstra W 70 - 68 56%
 Thu, Feb 19 185 Monmouth W 72 - 65 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 191 @Campbell W 76 - 74 56%
 Thu, Feb 26 302 N.C. A&T W 79 - 65 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 155 College of Charleston W 75 - 70 69%
 Tue, Mar 3 169 @Elon W 75 - 74 52%
Totals 22 - 7 13 - 5 +3 +1 D B C+ +1 B- C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.2 9.3 11.3 8.0 3.4 0.8 37.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.8 11.2 8.8 3.3 0.6 30.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.8 6.6 3.4 0.5 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 4.4 2.1 0.2 8.2 4th
5th 0.4 2.4 1.4 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.2 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.6 10.6 15.2 19.0 18.6 14.6 8.6 3.4 0.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.2 0.2
16-2 92.9% 8.0    6.8 1.1 0.0
15-3 77.4% 11.3    7.7 3.4 0.1
14-4 50.0% 9.3    4.5 4.1 0.7 0.0
13-5 22.0% 4.2    1.0 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.7% 37.7 24.0 11.0 2.2 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 48.1% 48.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4
17-1 3.4% 36.8% 36.8% 12.2 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.2
16-2 8.6% 32.0% 32.0% 12.5 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.1 5.8
15-3 14.6% 26.7% 26.7% 12.8 0.0 1.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.7
14-4 18.6% 23.2% 23.2% 13.0 0.0 0.8 2.6 0.8 0.0 14.3
13-5 19.0% 20.6% 20.6% 13.2 0.4 2.2 1.2 0.1 15.1
12-6 15.2% 17.2% 17.2% 13.5 0.2 1.2 1.1 0.1 12.6
11-7 10.6% 12.5% 12.5% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 9.3
10-8 5.6% 6.6% 6.6% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.2
9-9 2.5% 4.9% 4.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
8-10 0.8% 3.2% 3.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-11 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 21.0% 21.0% 0.0% 13.0 79.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.5 1.4 1.4 48.6 44.6 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%