Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.0#39
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#59
Pace65.3#292
Improvement+0.2#159

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#31
First Shot+0.6#155
After Offensive Rebound+7.4#2
Layup/Dunks+1.3#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#107
Freethrows+0.1#162
Improvement-0.4#224

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#70
First Shot+5.1#44
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#270
Layups/Dunks+2.5#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#74
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement+0.6#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 5.1% 5.3% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 15.6% 16.0% 5.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.5% 59.5% 36.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.0% 58.0% 35.0%
Average Seed 7.9 7.9 8.7
.500 or above 92.3% 92.9% 79.1%
.500 or above in Conference 71.0% 71.7% 55.7%
Conference Champion 3.4% 3.4% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.2% 2.7%
First Four7.7% 7.7% 8.6%
First Round54.5% 55.6% 30.7%
Second Round30.4% 31.1% 14.9%
Sweet Sixteen9.8% 10.0% 5.0%
Elite Eight3.6% 3.7% 1.4%
Final Four1.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 26 - 310 - 11
Quad 34 - 115 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 343 Rider W 87-53 98%     1 - 0 +19.6 +16.7 +6.1
  Fri, Nov 7 350 NC Central W 81-62 99%     2 - 0 +3.8 +10.4 -4.3
  Tue, Nov 11 235 Hampton W 91-53 95%     3 - 0 +30.8 +18.4 +14.0
  Sat, Nov 15 183 Marshall W 104-78 93%     4 - 0 +21.3 +21.4 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 21 56 Northwestern W 83-78 59%     5 - 0 +14.6 +12.4 +2.1
  Sun, Nov 23 47 Butler L 73-80 55%     5 - 1 +3.6 +5.7 -2.2
  Fri, Nov 28 210 Queens W 86-68 96%    
  Wed, Dec 3 36 @Texas L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Dec 6 78 Dayton W 73-68 66%    
  Tue, Dec 9 339 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78-52 99%    
  Sat, Dec 20 93 Maryland W 78-69 81%    
  Mon, Dec 22 283 American W 86-64 97%    
  Wed, Dec 31 63 @Virginia Tech W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Jan 3 29 @North Carolina St. L 78-82 35%    
  Wed, Jan 7 67 California W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 95 Stanford W 80-71 80%    
  Tue, Jan 13 9 @Louisville L 72-82 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 42 @SMU L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 26 North Carolina W 77-76 53%    
  Tue, Jan 27 66 @Notre Dame W 70-69 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 127 @Boston College W 73-66 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 99 Pittsburgh W 75-65 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 64 Syracuse W 77-70 72%    
  Tue, Feb 10 55 @Florida St. L 78-79 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 20 Ohio St. L 74-77 39%    
  Wed, Feb 18 104 @Georgia Tech W 73-68 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 44 Miami (FL) W 77-74 61%    
  Tue, Feb 24 29 North Carolina St. W 81-79 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 2 @Duke L 67-81 11%    
  Tue, Mar 3 37 Wake Forest W 76-73 59%    
  Sat, Mar 7 63 Virginia Tech W 77-71 71%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.2 1.6 0.2 9.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 5.0 2.0 0.2 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.3 3.7 4.0 0.7 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 4.9 1.3 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.4 3.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 2.1 4.1 0.7 6.9 9th
10th 0.6 3.5 1.9 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 3.1 0.5 5.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.2 0.0 4.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.5 2.2 0.2 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 1.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 17th
18th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 18th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 5.2 7.9 10.6 12.5 14.1 13.3 12.3 8.9 5.5 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 92.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-2 76.7% 0.8    0.6 0.3 0.0
15-3 42.8% 1.3    0.5 0.6 0.2
14-4 12.4% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.1% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 3.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.9% 99.4% 14.8% 84.7% 4.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-4 5.5% 99.8% 9.8% 89.9% 5.6 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-5 8.9% 98.2% 8.2% 90.0% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.0 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.1%
12-6 12.3% 94.2% 5.7% 88.5% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.5 2.9 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 93.8%
11-7 13.3% 83.8% 2.9% 81.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 3.0 2.3 1.0 2.2 83.4%
10-8 14.1% 65.0% 1.4% 63.6% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 3.2 2.0 0.0 4.9 64.5%
9-9 12.5% 42.3% 0.9% 41.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.9 0.1 7.2 41.8%
8-10 10.6% 20.1% 0.3% 19.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 0.1 8.5 19.8%
7-11 7.9% 5.7% 0.1% 5.6% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 7.4 5.6%
6-12 5.2% 1.3% 1.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 1.3%
5-13 2.9% 2.9
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 58.5% 3.5% 55.0% 7.9 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.3 6.1 7.8 9.0 9.4 9.6 6.8 0.3 41.5 57.0%