Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.1 #17
Expected Predictive Rating +19.3 #15
Pace 64.8 #295
Improvement +2.5 #60

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #18 A- A+ B+ C B-
Defense #23 A+ B+ C- B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #234 1.25 #89 +0.6 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #311 0.93 #21 -1.2 #237
Three Pointers 49% #34 1.12 #45 +6.9 #19
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #39 +6.2 #40
Freethrows 17.9 #154 72% #213 12.9 #167
Second Chance 36.1% #40 1.25 #12 0.45 #17
Turnovers 14.3% #52
Total Offense +9.5 #18

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #260 0.94 #7 +5.6 #27
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #22 0.68 #81 -1.7 #299
Three Pointers 37% #299 0.90 #58 +4.3 #38
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #10 +8.1 #10
Freethrows 15.6 #98 72% #142 11.2 #275
Second Chance 30.4% #168 0.85 #15 0.26 #47
Turnovers 16.0% #212
Total Defense +7.6 #23

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #92 -2.3% #30
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.6% #37 -13.9% #9
Possession Length 15.9 #59 19.7 #365
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #106 0.15 #98
Improvement -1.8 #287 +4.3 #10

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 2.8% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 5.9% 9.5% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 40.7% 53.8% 28.6%
Top 6 Seed 79.3% 88.9% 70.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.3% 99.7% 99.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.6% 98.8%
Average Seed 5.1 4.5 5.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.5%
Conference Champion 21.2% 30.8% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round99.2% 99.7% 98.8%
Second Round80.0% 85.1% 75.4%
Sweet Sixteen40.0% 45.5% 35.0%
Elite Eight16.2% 19.0% 13.6%
Final Four6.6% 8.0% 5.4%
Championship Game2.6% 3.3% 1.9%
National Champion0.9% 1.2% 0.6%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 47.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 4
Quad 28 - 215 - 6
Quad 35 - 020 - 7
Quad 47 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 348 Rider W 87 - 53 99% +17  1 - 0 +18 +17 C A+ A+ +4 B B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 338 NC Central W 81 - 62 99% +19  2 - 0 +5 +11 C A+ D -3 A- B F
 Tue, Nov 11 242 Hampton W 91 - 53 98% +24  3 - 0 +30 +20 A A+ F +12 A+ C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 171 Marshall W 104 - 78 96% +20  4 - 0 +22 +21 A+ A+ A+ -1 A+ F B-
 Fri, Nov 21 63 Northwestern W 83 - 78 79% -1  5 - 0 +14 +12 D+ A+ B +2 B- A- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 58 Butler L 73 - 80 77% -5  5 - 1 +2 +5 D+ A+ A -3 D- A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 202 Queens W 94 - 69 97% +12  6 - 1 +20 +22 A+ F B- +0 A+ F B-
 Wed, Dec 3 41 @Texas W 88 - 69 57% +6  7 - 1 +34 +26 A+ B+ A +10 A+ A- F
 Sat, Dec 6 70 Dayton W 86 - 73 81% +2  8 - 1 +21 +15 A+ A+ F +5 B+ A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 60 99% +12  9 - 1 +11 +11 A+ F A+ +1 C- C+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 112 Maryland W 80 - 72 93% -0  10 - 1 +9 +12 B+ D- A+ -3 F B- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 239 American W 95 - 51 98% +18  11 - 1 +37 +29 A+ A+ A- +12 A+ C C
 Wed, Dec 31 64 @Virginia Tech L 85 - 95 3OT 70% -8  11 - 2 0 - 1 +2 -5 D+ F C +10 A+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 24 @North Carolina St. W 76 - 61 44% +12  12 - 2 1 - 1 +34 +18 A+ A+ C +17 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 7 81 California W 84 - 60 89% +5  13 - 2 2 - 1 +28 +15 A A C +13 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 77 Stanford W 70 - 55 88% +6  14 - 2 3 - 1 +19 +7 B B- A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 19 @Louisville W 79 - 70 41% +2  15 - 2 4 - 1 +28 +18 A A+ F +11 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 30 @SMU L 76 - 77 48%
 Sat, Jan 24 29 North Carolina W 76 - 71 69%
 Tue, Jan 27 71 @Notre Dame W 71 - 65 72%
 Sat, Jan 31 151 @Boston College W 75 - 61 90%
 Tue, Feb 3 88 Pittsburgh W 78 - 64 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 61 Syracuse W 78 - 67 85%
 Tue, Feb 10 117 @Florida St. W 85 - 74 85%
 Sat, Feb 14 36 Ohio St. W 76 - 73 62%
 Wed, Feb 18 111 @Georgia Tech W 78 - 68 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 35 Miami (FL) W 78 - 72 72%
 Tue, Feb 24 24 North Carolina St. W 77 - 73 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 7 @Duke L 70 - 77 27%
 Tue, Mar 3 57 Wake Forest W 80 - 69 84%
 Sat, Mar 7 64 Virginia Tech W 79 - 68 85%
Totals 25 - 6 14 - 4 +17 +9 A- A+ B+ +8 A+ B+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.1 8.3 7.3 2.2 21.2 1st
2nd 0.3 3.9 11.8 9.5 1.8 0.0 27.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 9.2 7.6 1.4 0.1 20.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.5 5.7 1.2 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 4.6 1.2 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.3 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.0 7.1 13.9 20.4 23.8 19.2 9.2 2.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 99.8% 2.2    2.0 0.2 0.0
16-2 79.3% 7.3    4.4 2.7 0.2
15-3 43.2% 8.3    3.0 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 13.1% 3.1    0.5 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 1.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 9.9 7.6 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.2% 100.0% 28.9% 71.1% 2.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 9.2% 100.0% 27.2% 72.8% 3.1 0.8 1.9 3.2 2.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
15-3 19.2% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 3.9 0.3 1.3 5.2 7.3 4.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 23.8% 99.9% 17.3% 82.6% 4.7 0.1 0.3 3.2 7.1 7.6 4.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 20.4% 99.7% 13.0% 86.7% 5.5 0.0 0.8 3.5 6.1 5.9 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.7%
12-6 13.9% 99.3% 8.7% 90.6% 6.4 0.1 0.8 2.6 4.0 3.7 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 7.1% 98.3% 6.7% 91.6% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.1 98.2%
10-8 3.0% 94.6% 7.0% 87.6% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 94.2%
9-9 1.0% 89.4% 1.4% 88.0% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 89.3%
8-10 0.3% 75.9% 75.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 75.9%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.3% 16.0% 83.3% 5.1 0.7 99.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.4 62.7 33.3 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 2.2 24.0 40.0 30.7 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 2.3 20.3 39.1 29.7 10.9