Virginia Commonwealth
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.1#53
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#80
Pace74.0#82
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#89
First Shot+3.1#85
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#157
Layup/Dunks+1.5#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#108
Freethrows+2.1#71
Improvement-1.4#306

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#23
First Shot+5.2#42
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#95
Layups/Dunks+1.7#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#121
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#27
Freethrows-3.0#329
Improvement+1.0#85
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 1.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.0% 3.0% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.0% 36.0% 24.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11.4% 15.3% 6.6%
Average Seed 10.0 9.7 10.5
.500 or above 98.6% 99.5% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 95.6% 92.5%
Conference Champion 28.3% 31.5% 24.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.5% 5.5% 3.3%
First Round28.9% 33.6% 22.9%
Second Round11.6% 14.6% 7.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 4.2% 2.1%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Tech (Neutral) - 56.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 25 - 36 - 8
Quad 37 - 213 - 10
Quad 410 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 292 Wagner W 103-74 96%     1 - 0 +18.7 +17.9 -1.6
  Fri, Nov 7 35 Utah St. L 77-80 40%     1 - 1 +9.8 +2.6 +7.4
  Wed, Nov 12 295 St. Peter's W 78-61 96%     2 - 1 +6.6 +3.5 +3.6
  Mon, Nov 17 29 @North Carolina St. L 79-85 27%     2 - 2 +10.5 +6.7 +4.0
  Sat, Nov 22 364 Coppin St. W 101-58 99%     3 - 2 +23.0 +15.2 +5.3
  Wed, Nov 26 81 South Florida W 78-66 62%     4 - 2 +19.1 +4.7 +13.9
  Thu, Nov 27 19 Vanderbilt L 74-89 29%     4 - 3 +1.0 +1.6 +0.4
  Fri, Nov 28 63 Virginia Tech W 77-75 57%    
  Fri, Dec 5 221 Samford W 84-67 94%    
  Wed, Dec 10 101 New Mexico W 82-74 79%    
  Mon, Dec 15 333 Niagara W 81-58 98%    
  Thu, Dec 18 283 American W 86-66 96%    
  Mon, Dec 22 343 Rider W 85-60 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 119 St. Bonaventure W 76-66 82%    
  Sat, Jan 3 126 @Duquesne W 83-78 66%    
  Wed, Jan 7 50 Saint Louis W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 74 @George Mason L 70-71 49%    
  Wed, Jan 14 106 @Rhode Island W 76-73 60%    
  Mon, Jan 19 175 Saint Joseph's W 83-69 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 135 @Davidson W 74-69 69%    
  Tue, Jan 27 115 Richmond W 79-69 81%    
  Fri, Jan 30 265 Loyola Chicago W 81-62 95%    
  Tue, Feb 3 212 @Fordham W 74-64 82%    
  Fri, Feb 6 78 Dayton W 74-68 69%    
  Wed, Feb 11 214 @La Salle W 79-68 83%    
  Sat, Feb 14 115 @Richmond W 76-72 64%    
  Tue, Feb 17 62 George Washington W 83-79 65%    
  Fri, Feb 20 50 @Saint Louis L 76-79 39%    
  Sat, Feb 28 212 Fordham W 77-61 92%    
  Tue, Mar 3 74 George Mason W 73-68 68%    
  Fri, Mar 6 78 @Dayton L 71-72 49%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 5.9 8.8 7.4 3.5 0.8 28.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.7 7.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.7 5.9 1.8 0.1 14.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.1 1.3 0.1 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 1.8 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.7 0.2 4.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 3.1 5.5 8.7 11.6 14.2 15.8 14.8 11.7 7.8 3.5 0.8 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.8% 3.5    3.4 0.1
16-2 95.7% 7.4    6.4 1.0 0.0
15-3 75.1% 8.8    5.3 3.0 0.5 0.0
14-4 39.5% 5.9    2.2 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.3% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.3% 28.3 18.4 7.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 97.2% 57.8% 39.4% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.3%
17-1 3.5% 86.8% 45.8% 41.0% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 75.6%
16-2 7.8% 72.0% 42.5% 29.5% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.1 2.2 51.3%
15-3 11.7% 53.3% 34.1% 19.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.9 0.1 5.5 29.2%
14-4 14.8% 38.6% 28.6% 10.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.6 0.4 9.1 14.0%
13-5 15.8% 27.2% 22.6% 4.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.2 0.5 11.5 6.0%
12-6 14.2% 19.1% 17.2% 1.9% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 11.5 2.3%
11-7 11.6% 12.8% 12.3% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 10.1 0.6%
10-8 8.7% 7.1% 6.9% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.1 0.1%
9-9 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.2
8-10 3.1% 4.3% 4.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
7-11 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.0% 22.1% 8.9% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 3.2 5.8 14.2 2.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.0 11.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.4 3.1 18.8 35.4 26.0 12.5 3.1 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 5.6 7.1 10.7 32.1 17.9 28.6 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 6.7 12.5 25.0 16.7 4.2 29.2 4.2 8.3