Washington
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#48
Expected Predictive Rating+12.6#46
Pace68.8#212
Improvement+0.5#130

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#56
First Shot+2.7#96
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#30
Layup/Dunks-2.5#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#9
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#302
Freethrows+3.7#24
Improvement+0.7#109

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#51
First Shot+2.8#88
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#67
Layups/Dunks+1.6#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#283
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#191
Freethrows+2.7#47
Improvement-0.2#203
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.5% 3.6% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 9.6% 12.4% 5.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.5% 47.4% 30.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.2% 47.1% 29.8%
Average Seed 8.1 7.9 8.5
.500 or above 75.7% 83.5% 63.8%
.500 or above in Conference 39.6% 44.0% 32.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.5% 4.7%
First Four6.1% 6.5% 5.5%
First Round37.4% 44.1% 27.1%
Second Round19.3% 23.4% 12.9%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 7.2% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.5% 1.0%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Neutral) - 60.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 11
Quad 25 - 38 - 13
Quad 35 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94-50 99%     1 - 0 +25.4 +8.1 +15.4
  Thu, Nov 6 300 Denver W 84-70 97%     2 - 0 +3.3 +1.8 +1.4
  Sun, Nov 9 28 @Baylor L 69-78 27%     2 - 1 +7.9 +0.2 +7.9
  Fri, Nov 14 157 @Washington St. W 81-69 77%     3 - 1 +14.7 +16.0 +0.1
  Tue, Nov 18 197 Southern W 99-93 2OT 92%     4 - 1 +0.6 +1.1 -1.9
  Thu, Nov 27 122 Nevada W 83-66 77%     5 - 1 +19.8 +10.1 +9.4
  Fri, Nov 28 72 Colorado W 78-75 60%    
  Wed, Dec 3 32 UCLA W 70-69 50%    
  Sat, Dec 6 31 @USC L 75-81 29%    
  Sat, Dec 13 331 Southern Utah W 88-65 98%    
  Fri, Dec 19 116 @Seattle W 74-70 65%    
  Mon, Dec 22 247 San Diego W 87-69 95%    
  Mon, Dec 29 125 Utah W 81-70 84%    
  Sun, Jan 4 22 @Indiana L 70-78 24%    
  Wed, Jan 7 3 @Purdue L 66-81 9%    
  Sun, Jan 11 20 Ohio St. L 75-77 44%    
  Wed, Jan 14 1 Michigan L 71-83 13%    
  Sat, Jan 17 12 Michigan St. L 68-73 34%    
  Wed, Jan 21 43 @Nebraska L 75-79 34%    
  Sun, Jan 25 80 Oregon W 77-71 71%    
  Thu, Jan 29 13 @Illinois L 73-83 18%    
  Sat, Jan 31 56 @Northwestern L 72-74 43%    
  Wed, Feb 4 21 Iowa L 70-72 44%    
  Sat, Feb 7 32 @UCLA L 67-73 30%    
  Wed, Feb 11 100 Penn St. W 79-70 78%    
  Sat, Feb 14 103 Minnesota W 72-63 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 93 @Maryland W 75-73 57%    
  Tue, Feb 24 120 @Rutgers W 73-68 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 27 Wisconsin L 76-77 49%    
  Wed, Mar 4 31 USC W 78-77 51%    
  Sat, Mar 7 80 @Oregon W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.3 1.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.7 1.0 0.1 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.7 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.4 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.2 2.3 4.2 1.5 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.6 0.2 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.9 0.8 0.0 10.2 11th
12th 0.5 3.2 4.9 1.3 0.0 9.9 12th
13th 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.1 0.1 8.7 13th
14th 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.5 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.3 6.5 9.3 11.2 13.7 12.6 12.0 10.0 7.0 4.8 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 83.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 39.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 16.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.6% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 3.1% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 5.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.8% 99.4% 1.6% 97.8% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
12-8 7.0% 96.0% 0.4% 95.6% 7.5 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.3 96.0%
11-9 10.0% 87.6% 0.3% 87.3% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 2.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 1.2 87.6%
10-10 12.0% 67.9% 0.3% 67.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.2 2.6 1.4 0.0 3.9 67.8%
9-11 12.6% 36.5% 0.1% 36.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.2 0.1 8.0 36.5%
8-12 13.7% 11.7% 11.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.2 12.1 11.7%
7-13 11.2% 1.5% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.1 1.5%
6-14 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 9.3 0.0%
5-15 6.5% 6.5
4-16 4.3% 4.3
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.8% 0.8
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 40.5% 0.5% 40.1% 8.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.3 5.4 6.8 6.6 6.7 5.2 0.3 59.5 40.2%