Kentucky
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#9
Expected Predictive Rating+19.3#12
Pace79.1#15
Improvement-3.0#337

Offense
Total Offense+10.3#7
First Shot+11.6#2
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#256
Layup/Dunks+3.9#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#52
Freethrows+1.2#110
Improvement-2.1#325

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#15
First Shot+5.5#36
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#54
Layups/Dunks+5.8#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#21
Freethrows+1.8#77
Improvement-0.9#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.6% 9.9% 4.7%
#1 Seed 24.9% 33.6% 19.7%
Top 2 Seed 47.7% 59.7% 40.6%
Top 4 Seed 77.3% 86.6% 71.8%
Top 6 Seed 88.0% 94.0% 84.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 96.5% 98.7% 95.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.1% 98.5% 94.7%
Average Seed 3.2 2.6 3.5
.500 or above 98.3% 99.5% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 88.6% 81.0%
Conference Champion 14.1% 17.6% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 1.0%
First Four1.9% 0.8% 2.5%
First Round95.8% 98.4% 94.2%
Second Round86.0% 91.8% 82.7%
Sweet Sixteen57.0% 63.4% 53.2%
Elite Eight32.8% 38.4% 29.5%
Final Four17.5% 21.3% 15.3%
Championship Game9.0% 11.3% 7.7%
National Champion4.4% 5.7% 3.7%

Next Game: Gonzaga (Neutral) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 77 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 9
Quad 24 - 114 - 10
Quad 33 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 136   Wright St. W 103-62 95%     1 - 0 +39.4 +20.8 +16.2
  Nov 09, 2024 260   Bucknell W 100-72 98%     2 - 0 +19.4 +14.4 +1.9
  Nov 12, 2024 2   Duke W 77-72 39%     3 - 0 +25.6 +10.3 +15.0
  Nov 19, 2024 105   Lipscomb W 97-68 93%     4 - 0 +30.1 +23.0 +6.5
  Nov 22, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 108-59 99%     5 - 0 +37.6 +16.3 +14.2
  Nov 26, 2024 115   Western Kentucky W 87-68 94%     6 - 0 +19.3 +7.4 +10.0
  Nov 29, 2024 230   Georgia St. W 105-76 98%     7 - 0 +22.2 +16.5 +2.5
  Dec 03, 2024 28   @ Clemson L 66-70 56%     7 - 1 +12.1 +3.8 +8.2
  Dec 07, 2024 1   Gonzaga L 83-86 37%    
  Dec 11, 2024 246   Colgate W 88-63 99%    
  Dec 14, 2024 43   Louisville W 86-76 81%    
  Dec 21, 2024 29   Ohio St. W 82-77 67%    
  Dec 31, 2024 164   Brown W 87-66 97%    
  Jan 04, 2025 10   Florida W 86-83 61%    
  Jan 07, 2025 38   @ Georgia W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 11, 2025 15   @ Mississippi St. L 80-81 48%    
  Jan 14, 2025 30   Texas A&M W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 5   Alabama W 90-88 58%    
  Jan 25, 2025 67   @ Vanderbilt W 86-80 70%    
  Jan 28, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 01, 2025 33   Arkansas W 85-77 76%    
  Feb 04, 2025 26   @ Mississippi W 81-80 55%    
  Feb 08, 2025 69   South Carolina W 82-70 86%    
  Feb 11, 2025 4   Tennessee W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 34   @ Texas W 78-76 57%    
  Feb 19, 2025 67   Vanderbilt W 89-77 85%    
  Feb 22, 2025 5   @ Alabama L 87-91 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 41   @ Oklahoma W 80-77 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 3   Auburn W 84-83 51%    
  Mar 04, 2025 47   LSU W 86-76 82%    
  Mar 08, 2025 63   @ Missouri W 85-79 69%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 4.5 2.8 1.1 0.2 14.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 5.5 4.5 1.4 0.2 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.4 4.5 1.0 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.7 4.7 1.1 0.1 11.5 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 5.3 1.5 0.1 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.7 2.4 0.2 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.4 0.9 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.7 0.1 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.3 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.4 7.1 10.0 12.9 14.5 14.1 12.7 9.5 5.9 2.9 1.1 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.1
16-2 94.7% 2.8    2.3 0.5 0.0
15-3 75.1% 4.5    2.8 1.5 0.2
14-4 41.0% 3.9    1.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.8% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.1% 14.1 7.9 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 45.1% 54.9% 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 39.1% 60.9% 1.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
16-2 2.9% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.9% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 1.2 4.7 1.2 0.1 100.0%
14-4 9.5% 100.0% 22.0% 78.0% 1.4 5.8 3.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.7% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 1.7 5.5 5.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.1% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 2.2 3.2 6.0 3.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.5% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 2.8 1.5 4.2 5.4 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.9% 100.0% 5.1% 94.9% 3.6 0.4 1.9 4.2 3.8 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 10.0% 99.9% 3.7% 96.2% 4.5 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.0 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 7.1% 98.6% 2.5% 96.1% 6.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.6%
7-11 4.4% 89.2% 1.3% 87.8% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.5 89.0%
6-12 2.6% 60.5% 0.8% 59.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.0 60.1%
5-13 1.3% 18.3% 0.3% 18.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 18.1%
4-14 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0 0.0 0.5 0.4%
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 96.5% 11.4% 85.1% 3.2 24.9 22.8 17.8 11.8 6.7 4.0 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 3.5 96.1%