Kentucky
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#15
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#51
Pace70.0#154
Improvement-0.1#190

Offense
Total Offense+8.9#15
First Shot+5.8#33
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#35
Layup/Dunks+1.2#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.3#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#268
Freethrows-0.6#217
Improvement-0.8#253

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#37
First Shot+5.4#38
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#128
Layups/Dunks+2.7#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#25
Freethrows+1.9#78
Improvement+0.7#113
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.4% 0.0%
#1 Seed 6.9% 6.9% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 16.0% 16.0% 4.8%
Top 4 Seed 38.6% 38.7% 15.4%
Top 6 Seed 59.5% 59.7% 33.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.1% 86.3% 65.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.0% 84.2% 62.3%
Average Seed 5.2 5.2 6.9
.500 or above 97.7% 97.8% 86.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 85.9% 70.0%
Conference Champion 14.5% 14.6% 5.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 1.7%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 7.6%
First Round84.8% 85.0% 63.0%
Second Round64.6% 64.8% 34.7%
Sweet Sixteen36.1% 36.3% 15.1%
Elite Eight18.8% 18.9% 7.8%
Final Four9.3% 9.3% 3.4%
Championship Game4.3% 4.3% 1.1%
National Champion2.0% 2.0% 0.3%

Next Game: Southern (Home) - 99.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 9
Quad 25 - 112 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 48 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 8   Duke L 71-79 41%     0 - 1 +9.4 +3.3 +6.4
  Nov 12, 2021 307   Robert Morris W 100-60 98%     1 - 1 +28.6 +17.5 +10.2
  Nov 16, 2021 293   Mount St. Mary's W 80-55 98%     2 - 1 +14.5 +8.8 +7.1
  Nov 19, 2021 89   Ohio W 77-59 87%     3 - 1 +20.9 +11.4 +11.1
  Nov 22, 2021 300   Albany W 86-61 98%     4 - 1 +14.2 +6.5 +6.5
  Nov 26, 2021 308   North Florida W 86-52 98%     5 - 1 +22.4 -3.1 +21.8
  Nov 29, 2021 325   Central Michigan W 85-57 99%     6 - 1 +14.9 +5.3 +10.3
  Dec 07, 2021 297   Southern W 87-61 99%    
  Dec 11, 2021 84   @ Notre Dame W 76-70 71%    
  Dec 18, 2021 22   Ohio St. W 73-72 56%    
  Dec 22, 2021 37   Louisville W 74-67 74%    
  Dec 29, 2021 158   Missouri W 79-61 95%    
  Dec 31, 2021 263   High Point W 80-56 99%    
  Jan 04, 2022 11   @ LSU L 72-76 34%    
  Jan 08, 2022 150   Georgia W 82-65 94%    
  Jan 11, 2022 86   @ Vanderbilt W 74-68 72%    
  Jan 15, 2022 13   Tennessee W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 19, 2022 76   @ Texas A&M W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 22, 2022 16   @ Auburn L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 25, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 75-66 78%    
  Jan 29, 2022 6   @ Kansas L 74-80 30%    
  Feb 02, 2022 86   Vanderbilt W 77-65 86%    
  Feb 05, 2022 10   @ Alabama L 76-81 34%    
  Feb 08, 2022 118   @ South Carolina W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 12, 2022 30   Florida W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 15, 2022 13   @ Tennessee L 70-74 38%    
  Feb 19, 2022 10   Alabama W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 23, 2022 11   LSU W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 26, 2022 25   @ Arkansas L 77-78 46%    
  Mar 01, 2022 61   Mississippi W 72-62 82%    
  Mar 05, 2022 30   @ Florida W 72-71 50%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.0 4.9 3.1 1.1 0.2 14.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.2 5.0 1.4 0.1 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.6 5.2 1.1 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.6 6.0 1.3 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.8 1.8 0.1 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 2.6 0.2 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 3.0 0.3 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 4.1 6.9 9.8 12.5 14.5 15.0 13.1 10.1 6.3 3.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 96.2% 3.1    2.6 0.5 0.0
15-3 76.8% 4.9    2.9 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 39.3% 4.0    1.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 9.2% 1.2    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.5% 14.5 8.2 4.4 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 43.2% 56.8% 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.2% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.3% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 2.0 2.1 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.1% 100.0% 24.0% 76.0% 2.8 1.4 2.8 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.1% 100.0% 19.6% 80.3% 3.8 0.5 1.8 3.5 3.6 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.0% 99.8% 12.8% 87.0% 4.9 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.4 3.8 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 14.5% 98.3% 9.5% 88.8% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.8 3.4 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 98.1%
10-8 12.5% 91.9% 6.0% 85.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 91.4%
9-9 9.8% 75.2% 3.3% 71.8% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.4 74.3%
8-10 6.9% 45.6% 2.8% 42.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.7 44.0%
7-11 4.1% 18.7% 1.4% 17.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 17.5%
6-12 1.9% 4.9% 0.8% 4.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 4.1%
5-13 0.9% 2.1% 0.7% 1.4% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4%
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 86.1% 13.2% 72.9% 5.2 6.9 9.1 11.1 11.5 10.9 10.0 8.2 6.4 4.4 3.2 2.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.9 84.0%