Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.8 #72
Expected Predictive Rating +11.5 #53
Pace 70.8 #145
Improvement -0.4 #202

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #65 B B B- B+ C+
Defense #105 C+ C C B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #162 1.26 #76 +2.3 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #218 0.69 #249 -1.3 #240
Three Pointers 42% #157 1.14 #47 +3.4 #81
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #74 +4.4 #74
Freethrows 19.6 #78 75% #116 14.7 #67
Second Chance 30.0% #209 1.20 #37 0.36 #98
Turnovers 14.2% #48
Total Offense +5.5 #65

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #265 1.15 #159 +2.0 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #267 0.64 #47 +2.2 #51
Three Pointers 47% #38 0.99 #173 -2.6 #286
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #133 +1.5 #129
Freethrows 16.7 #162 77% #328 12.8 #211
Second Chance 30.8% #185 1.03 #173 0.32 #184
Turnovers 19.6% #50
Total Defense +2.3 #105

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #153 0.4% #200
Shot Type Make Effect 8% #69 -3.2% #128
Possession Length 14.9 #22 17.7 #258
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #32 0.17 #158
Improvement -0.1 #201 -0.2 #200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 18.1% 7.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 14.3% 18.0% 7.4%
Average Seed 9.6 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 48.5% 58.6% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 17.7% 23.5% 6.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 7.6% 22.1%
First Four5.1% 6.1% 3.2%
First Round11.3% 14.5% 5.3%
Second Round4.1% 5.3% 2.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.8% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 65.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 12
Quad 25 - 38 - 15
Quad 34 - 112 - 16
Quad 44 - 116 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 328 Southern Utah W 81-64 96%     10.7   1 - 0 +3.6 +0.2 +2.8
  Sun, Nov 9 245 Utah Tech W 81-66 92%     10.6   2 - 0 +7.3 +3.5 +3.5
  Fri, Nov 14 6 Gonzaga L 65-77 17%     -6.6   2 - 1 +6.2 -0.8 +7.0
  Mon, Nov 17 315 Georgia St. W 75-62 96%     -0.6   3 - 1 +0.6 -3.3 +3.7
  Thu, Nov 20 110 @Hawaii W 83-76 54%     -2.3   4 - 1 +13.9 +12.2 +1.1
  Mon, Nov 24 43 Texas W 87-86 33%     -2.2   5 - 1 +13.3 +12.4 +0.8
  Tue, Nov 25 150 Washington St. W 100-94 76%     -1.7   6 - 1 +6.6 +26.3 -19.8
  Wed, Nov 26 40 USC L 75-88 32%     -3.5   6 - 2 -0.2 +11.8 -12.8
  Sat, Dec 6 46 Oklahoma W 86-70 37%     15.9   7 - 2 +27.2 +12.3 +14.3
  Tue, Dec 9 285 Northern Arizona W 73-48 94%     11.6   8 - 2 +15.3 +2.1 +15.2
  Sat, Dec 13 66 Santa Clara W 82-79 48%     -5.7   9 - 2 +11.4 +7.9 +3.4
  Wed, Dec 17 29 @UCLA L 77-90 18%     -9.1   9 - 3 +4.5 +10.4 -5.8
  Sun, Dec 21 163 Oregon St. L 75-78 86%     0.9   9 - 4 -6.6 +3.7 -10.4
  Sat, Jan 3 87 Colorado W 82-78 65%    
  Wed, Jan 7 10 @BYU L 71-86 8%    
  Sat, Jan 10 68 Kansas St. W 85-82 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 2 @Arizona L 70-89 4%    
  Sun, Jan 18 11 @Houston L 64-79 9%    
  Wed, Jan 21 64 West Virginia W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 58 Cincinnati W 75-73 56%    
  Tue, Jan 27 52 @Central Florida L 78-84 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 2 Arizona L 73-86 12%    
  Wed, Feb 4 113 @Utah W 80-79 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 87 @Colorado L 79-81 43%    
  Tue, Feb 10 55 Oklahoma St. W 85-84 54%    
  Tue, Feb 17 23 Texas Tech L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 27 @Baylor L 77-87 17%    
  Tue, Feb 24 48 @TCU L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 113 Utah W 83-76 74%    
  Tue, Mar 3 16 Kansas L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Mar 7 4 @Iowa St. L 69-87 5%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.6 0.3 5.5 7th
8th 0.3 3.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.6 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 5.4 1.4 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 6.1 3.1 0.3 10.7 10th
11th 0.5 4.6 4.8 0.7 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.1 2.8 6.9 1.7 0.0 11.4 12th
13th 0.0 1.5 6.2 3.8 0.3 11.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.9 4.3 4.4 0.5 0.0 10.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 3.4 4.2 1.0 0.0 9.1 15th
16th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.7 1.0 0.0 6.5 16th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.5 7.0 11.1 14.8 17.2 15.5 13.4 9.0 4.8 2.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0%
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 97.4% 5.1% 92.3% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.3%
12-6 0.8% 98.8% 98.8% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.8%
11-7 2.7% 85.8% 0.7% 85.0% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 85.7%
10-8 4.8% 77.8% 0.2% 77.6% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.5 1.1 77.8%
9-9 9.0% 50.3% 0.2% 50.1% 10.2 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 1.9 0.1 4.5 50.2%
8-10 13.4% 16.4% 0.1% 16.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 0.2 11.2 16.4%
7-11 15.5% 2.2% 2.2% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 15.1 2.2%
6-12 17.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 17.2 0.2%
5-13 14.8% 14.8
4-14 11.1% 11.1
3-15 7.0% 7.0
2-16 2.5% 2.5
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 14.4% 0.1% 14.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.8 4.5 0.2 85.6 14.3%