Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#71
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#53
Pace70.8#145
Improvement-0.4#206

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#61
First Shot+5.0#60
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#129
Layup/Dunks+1.2#137
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#123
Freethrows+2.8#36
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#107
First Shot+1.3#126
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#128
Layups/Dunks+3.6#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#279
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement-0.5#220
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.6% 20.2% 8.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.6% 20.1% 8.1%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 9.8
.500 or above 48.9% 59.4% 31.8%
.500 or above in Conference 18.0% 24.3% 7.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 7.1% 21.1%
First Four5.4% 6.6% 3.4%
First Round12.6% 16.5% 6.2%
Second Round4.8% 6.3% 2.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.1% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 61.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 12
Quad 25 - 38 - 15
Quad 34 - 112 - 16
Quad 44 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 319 Southern Utah W 81-64 96%     1 - 0 +4.6 +0.6 +3.4
  Sun, Nov 9 251 Utah Tech W 81-66 92%     2 - 0 +6.8 +3.0 +3.6
  Fri, Nov 14 6 Gonzaga L 65-77 16%     2 - 1 +6.5 -0.1 +6.6
  Mon, Nov 17 330 Georgia St. W 75-62 96%     3 - 1 -0.1 -3.5 +3.2
  Thu, Nov 20 109 @Hawaii W 83-76 54%     4 - 1 +13.8 +12.2 +1.1
  Mon, Nov 24 41 Texas W 87-86 33%     5 - 1 +13.2 +12.5 +0.7
  Tue, Nov 25 149 Washington St. W 100-94 75%     6 - 1 +6.8 +25.4 -18.7
  Wed, Nov 26 38 USC L 75-88 32%     6 - 2 -0.5 +11.8 -13.0
  Sat, Dec 6 45 Oklahoma W 86-70 36%     7 - 2 +27.3 +12.6 +14.1
  Tue, Dec 9 289 Northern Arizona W 73-48 94%     8 - 2 +15.3 +2.0 +15.1
  Sat, Dec 13 86 Santa Clara W 82-79 55%     9 - 2 +9.6 +8.3 +1.1
  Wed, Dec 17 30 @UCLA L 77-90 18%     9 - 3 +4.4 +10.3 -5.8
  Sun, Dec 21 154 Oregon St. L 75-78 84%     9 - 4 -5.6 +4.5 -10.3
  Sat, Jan 3 73 Colorado W 81-78 62%    
  Wed, Jan 7 11 @BYU L 71-86 8%    
  Sat, Jan 10 58 Kansas St. W 84-82 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 2 @Arizona L 70-89 4%    
  Sun, Jan 18 8 @Houston L 64-79 7%    
  Wed, Jan 21 62 West Virginia W 72-70 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 67 Cincinnati W 75-72 59%    
  Tue, Jan 27 49 @Central Florida L 78-84 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 2 Arizona L 73-86 13%    
  Wed, Feb 4 111 @Utah W 80-79 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 73 @Colorado L 78-81 40%    
  Tue, Feb 10 55 Oklahoma St. W 85-83 56%    
  Tue, Feb 17 24 Texas Tech L 76-80 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 27 @Baylor L 77-87 18%    
  Tue, Feb 24 53 @TCU L 71-76 32%    
  Sat, Feb 28 111 Utah W 83-76 74%    
  Tue, Mar 3 17 Kansas L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Mar 7 3 @Iowa St. L 69-86 6%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.9 1.7 0.2 5.8 7th
8th 0.5 3.5 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 5.0 1.4 0.1 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.4 5.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 10.6 10th
11th 0.4 4.9 5.1 0.7 0.0 11.1 11th
12th 0.1 2.5 6.7 1.7 0.0 11.0 12th
13th 0.1 1.4 5.9 3.6 0.2 11.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.8 4.5 4.6 0.7 0.0 10.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.6 3.1 4.1 1.0 0.0 9.0 15th
16th 0.1 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.0 0.0 6.3 16th
Total 0.1 0.9 2.7 6.3 11.0 14.4 17.4 15.9 13.4 8.9 5.2 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 25.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 29.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.3% 99.0% 1.0% 98.0% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
12-6 1.0% 97.9% 1.4% 96.5% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
11-7 2.5% 93.4% 0.5% 92.9% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 93.4%
10-8 5.2% 80.5% 0.4% 80.1% 9.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.0 80.4%
9-9 8.9% 52.7% 0.2% 52.5% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.1 0.0 4.2 52.6%
8-10 13.4% 19.8% 0.0% 19.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 0.2 10.7 19.8%
7-11 15.9% 2.4% 0.0% 2.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 15.5 2.4%
6-12 17.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 17.4 0.2%
5-13 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 14.4 0.0%
4-14 11.0% 11.0
3-15 6.3% 6.3
2-16 2.7% 2.7
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 15.6% 0.1% 15.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.1 3.7 4.8 0.3 0.0 84.4 15.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%