Preseason Rankings
Michigan
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#6
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.1#56
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.2#14
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.0% 5.0% 0.4%
#1 Seed 19.1% 19.3% 3.4%
Top 2 Seed 37.6% 37.9% 10.4%
Top 4 Seed 63.6% 64.0% 26.4%
Top 6 Seed 78.7% 79.1% 45.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.0% 92.2% 70.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.6% 90.9% 69.6%
Average Seed 3.7 3.7 5.6
.500 or above 94.4% 94.6% 73.2%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 90.7% 72.1%
Conference Champion 18.9% 19.1% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Four2.5% 2.4% 6.3%
First Round90.9% 91.1% 69.5%
Second Round80.4% 80.7% 51.2%
Sweet Sixteen52.7% 53.0% 26.3%
Elite Eight29.9% 30.1% 12.1%
Final Four16.0% 16.1% 5.6%
Championship Game8.0% 8.0% 2.2%
National Champion4.2% 4.2% 1.9%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 65 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 210 - 8
Quad 27 - 116 - 9
Quad 35 - 021 - 9
Quad 42 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 197   Oakland W 83-58 99%    
  Nov 11, 2025 67   Wake Forest W 79-68 84%    
  Nov 14, 2025 55   @ TCU W 75-68 73%    
  Nov 19, 2025 147   Middle Tennessee W 85-63 98%    
  Nov 24, 2025 38   San Diego St. W 73-67 72%    
  Nov 25, 2025 22   Auburn W 77-74 62%    
  Dec 06, 2025 81   Rutgers W 83-67 91%    
  Dec 09, 2025 39   Villanova W 74-64 80%    
  Dec 13, 2025 40   @ Maryland W 77-73 62%    
  Dec 21, 2025 196   La Salle W 88-63 98%    
  Dec 29, 2025 96   McNeese St. W 79-62 93%    
  Jan 02, 2026 29   USC W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 06, 2026 90   @ Penn St. W 82-71 82%    
  Jan 10, 2026 26   Wisconsin W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 14, 2026 48   @ Washington W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 18, 2026 28   @ Oregon W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 20, 2026 34   Indiana W 79-70 77%    
  Jan 23, 2026 27   Ohio St. W 79-72 73%    
  Jan 27, 2026 60   Nebraska W 81-68 86%    
  Jan 30, 2026 21   @ Michigan St. W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 05, 2026 90   Penn St. W 85-68 91%    
  Feb 08, 2026 27   @ Ohio St. W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 11, 2026 71   @ Northwestern W 75-67 76%    
  Feb 14, 2026 14   UCLA W 73-68 66%    
  Feb 17, 2026 2   @ Purdue L 70-77 28%    
  Feb 21, 2026 3   Duke L 72-75 42%    
  Feb 24, 2026 87   Minnesota W 77-61 91%    
  Feb 27, 2026 15   @ Illinois L 80-81 47%    
  Mar 05, 2026 32   @ Iowa W 81-78 59%    
  Mar 08, 2026 21   Michigan St. W 76-70 70%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.1 5.2 5.1 3.4 1.1 18.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.7 5.8 3.8 1.2 0.1 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.5 5.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.2 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.3 0.5 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.9 0.1 3.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.9 5.7 7.6 9.3 11.1 12.2 12.7 11.5 9.5 6.4 3.5 1.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 96.9% 3.4    3.0 0.4 0.0
18-2 80.6% 5.1    3.6 1.4 0.1
17-3 54.9% 5.2    2.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
16-4 26.9% 3.1    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 7.5% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.9% 18.9 11.6 5.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 100.0% 58.6% 41.4% 1.1 1.0 0.1 100.0%
19-1 3.5% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 1.2 2.8 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.4% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.3 4.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 9.5% 100.0% 28.0% 72.0% 1.6 4.8 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 11.5% 100.0% 23.4% 76.6% 2.0 3.6 4.9 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 12.7% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 2.7 1.8 4.2 4.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.2% 100.0% 10.7% 89.2% 3.5 0.6 2.1 3.9 3.0 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.1% 99.8% 6.9% 92.9% 4.4 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.9 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 9.3% 99.4% 4.1% 95.3% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.4%
11-9 7.6% 95.1% 2.6% 92.5% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.0%
10-10 5.7% 84.5% 1.0% 83.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.9 84.3%
9-11 3.9% 53.5% 1.0% 52.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.8 53.0%
8-12 2.5% 26.8% 0.4% 26.4% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.9 26.5%
7-13 1.6% 8.4% 0.2% 8.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 8.1%
6-14 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 10.0 0.0 0.9 0.4%
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 92.0% 14.5% 77.5% 3.7 19.1 18.5 14.8 11.2 8.7 6.4 4.0 3.1 2.2 2.2 1.6 0.1 8.0 90.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 92.2 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.5 7.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 93.5 6.5