Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +25.9 1
Expected Predictive Rating +28.9 2
Pace 78.7 10
Improvement -3.6 317

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 5 A A+ B- B+ A
Defense A+ 1 A+ B+ B- A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% 6 A- 68% 16 +11.0 2
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% 355 C+ 39% 134 -4.5 358
Three Pointers 43% 150 B- 36% 93 +2.2 107
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.2 4 A- +6.1 27
1st FG Attempt A 1.19 9
Second Chance A 39.5% 10 A+ 1.36 1 A+ 0.54 1
Turnovers B- 15.1% 68
Freethrows A- 0.37 19 C+ 74% 146 B+ 0.27 24
Total Offense A +12.2 5

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% 361 A+ 41% 1 +11.8 1
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 9 A- 32% 14 -2.0 325
Three Pointers 43% 103 A 28% 5 +2.9 63
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ +2.2 4 A+ +6.1 27
1st FG Attempt 0.77 1 A+ +12.7 1
Second Chance A- 24.5% 20 B 0.94 63 B+ 0.23 21
Turnovers B- 18.4% 93
Freethrows A 0.22 9 C 72% 182 A- 0.16 12
Total Defense A+ +13.7 1

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 13.4 1 18.8 348
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 17 0.07 2
Improvement -0.9 #251 -2.7 #306

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 36% 37% 29%
#1 Seed 85% 86% 79%
Top 2 Seed 100% 100% 99%
Top 4 Seed 100% 100% 100%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 1.1 1.1 1.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 92% 93% 74%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round100% 100% 100%
Sweet Sixteen87% 87% 85%
Elite Eight68% 68% 62%
Final Four48% 49% 42%
Championship Game32% 33% 28%
National Champion21% 21% 17%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 91.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 27 - 2
Quad 1b7 - 014 - 3
Quad 29 - 124 - 3
Quad 34 - 028 - 3
Quad 42 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 148 Oakland W 121 - 78 99% +27  99% 1 - 0 A+ +41 A+ +29 A+ A+ A B+ +8 C A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 63 Wake Forest W 85 - 84 OT 94% +2  56% 2 - 0 B +9 D+ -3 D A C+ A +12 A+ D C
 Fri, Nov 14 50 @TCU W 67 - 63 87% -2  23% 3 - 0 A +18 C +1 C- A+ F A+ +17 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 167 Middle Tennessee W 86 - 61 99% +13  89% 4 - 0 A +22 C- -1 D+ A+ D+ A+ +19 A+ C+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 43 San Diego St. W 94 - 54 89% +18  91% 5 - 0 A+ +52 A+ +21 A A+ A A+ +28 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 28 Auburn W 102 - 72 84% +21  96% 6 - 0 A+ +45 A+ +29 A- A+ A+ A+ +16 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 13 Gonzaga W 101 - 61 75% +25  100% 7 - 0 A+ +59 A+ +22 A+ C+ A- A+ +32 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 121 Rutgers W 101 - 60 98% +22  94% 8 - 0 1 - 0 A+ +41 A+ +21 A+ A+ B A+ +18 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 32 Villanova W 89 - 61 91% +23  96% 9 - 0 A+ +39 A- +10 C+ A+ A A+ +27 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 104 @Maryland W 101 - 83 95% +3  59% 10 - 0 2 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +29 A+ C A- C- -4 D F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 226 La Salle W 102 - 50 99% +24  92% 11 - 0 A+ +46 A+ +18 A+ D- A- A+ +24 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 29 87 McNeese St. W 112 - 71 97% +30  99% 12 - 0 A+ +44 A+ +20 A+ A+ A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 47 USC W 96 - 66 94% +16  99% 13 - 0 3 - 0 A+ +38 A- +10 A- B+ A A+ +23 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 108 @Penn St. W 74 - 72 95% +5  80% 14 - 0 4 - 0 B +9 C- -2 D+ D- B A +11 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 33 Wisconsin L 88 - 91 91% +2  56% 14 - 1 4 - 1 B +8 A +13 A- B- A- D+ -5 D+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 46 @Washington W 82 - 72 86% +8  91% 15 - 1 5 - 1 A+ +24 A +12 D+ A+ A A +12 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 80 @Oregon W 81 - 71 92% +6  91% 16 - 1 6 - 1 A +20 A +13 A A+ F+ B+ +7 A+ F+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 29 Indiana W 86 - 72 90% +14  98% 17 - 1 7 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +14 A+ A+ D+ A +11 A A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 23 39 Ohio St. W 74 - 62 91% +2  61% 18 - 1 8 - 1 A+ +23 B +7 B- A+ F A+ +17 A+ C+ A
 Tue, Jan 27 15 Nebraska W 75 - 72 84% -4  5% 19 - 1 9 - 1 A +18 B +7 B+ A+ F A +12 C+ A+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 10 @Michigan St. W 83 - 71 62% +7  92% 20 - 1 10 - 1 A+ +35 A+ +18 B A+ C- A+ +16 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Feb 5 108 Penn St. W 110 - 69 98% +27  97% 21 - 1 11 - 1 A+ +42 A+ +31 A+ A+ A+ A +10 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Feb 8 39 @Ohio St. W 82 - 61 81% +10  98% 22 - 1 12 - 1 A+ +38 A+ +17 A+ B A A+ +22 A+ A B+
 Wed, Feb 11 64 @Northwestern W 87 - 75 91% -5  21% 23 - 1 13 - 1 A+ +23 A- +11 B A+ B- A +12 A+ A- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 35 UCLA W 84 - 69 92%
 Tue, Feb 17 9 @Purdue W 79 - 77 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 3 Duke W 77 - 75 59%
 Tue, Feb 24 71 Minnesota W 83 - 62 98%
 Fri, Feb 27 6 @Illinois W 81 - 80 56%
 Thu, Mar 5 25 @Iowa W 79 - 72 74%
 Sun, Mar 8 10 Michigan St. W 79 - 70 80%
Totals 28 - 3 18 - 2 +26 C +12 C A- A A+ +14 B- C+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A- C+ B- A- 49% 9% 43% A A A A+ A+ B- A- C+ B+ A+ A+ A- A A+ 26% 31% 43% A+ A+ A- B B+ B- A C A-
1.26 68% 39% 36% +6 +2 1.19 40% 1.4 .54 15% .37 74% .27 0.89 41% 32% 28% -11 -2 0.77 25% 0.9 .23 18% .22 72% .27
Nov
3		 Oakland A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 15% 53% B- A+ F+ A+ A+ A D- A+ C B+ A+ F F D+ 31% 28% 41% A+ C A+ F A+ C A+ F A-
1.56 85% 56% 52% +25 0 1.53 26% 2.3 .61 10% .19 92% .17 1.00 42% 47% 40% +1 -1 1.02 13% 1.4 .18 14% .23 87% .20
Nov
11		 Wake Forest D+ C+ A+ F F 50% 6% 44% A D B A+ A C+ A+ F+ A+ A A+ A+ A- A+ 30% 28% 42% A+ A+ C- D- D C B- C C+
0.99 60% 67% 14% -11 +3 0.86 34% 1.3 .45 20% .53 68% .36 0.97 30% 26% 29% -15 -2 0.69 33% 1.3 .44 15% .29 76% .22
Nov
14		 TCU C C F F+ D 55% 14% 32% A C- A+ D A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A C+ A 33% 28% 39% A A+ A A+ A+ C A B+ A
0.96 54% 17% 29% -8 +2 0.91 54% 0.9 .50 32% .42 80% .33 0.90 50% 27% 33% -6 -1 0.87 26% 0.6 .15 16% .26 67% .17
Nov
19		 Middle Tennessee C- A F+ F D- 49% 13% 38% B+ D+ B A+ A+ D+ A C- A- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 17% 31% 53% A+ A+ B- C- C+ B+ A- F B
1.10 70% 29% 14% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.5 .46 17% .40 73% .29 0.78 40% 22% 29% -12 -3 0.73 27% 0.9 .24 19% .19 75% .14
Nov
24		 San Diego St. A+ A A+ C- A 38% 7% 55% A A A+ A+ A+ A B+ D- B- A+ A+ A- C A+ 18% 45% 36% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A B F+ C+
1.24 67% 50% 32% +3 +2 1.11 41% 1.5 .59 17% .35 68% .24 0.71 30% 28% 35% -9 -5 0.75 26% 0.3 .07 23% .27 81% .22
Nov
25		 Auburn A+ C+ A+ B B+ 38% 5% 57% A A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A A A+ A+ A+ F A+ 33% 23% 44% A A+ A+ A A+ D F A+ C+
1.44 57% 67% 38% +4 +2 1.14 44% 1.5 .67 13% .35 82% .29 1.01 35% 8% 43% -8 -1 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 11% .52 55% .29
Nov
26		 Gonzaga A+ A+ F A+ A+ 46% 7% 47% A+ A+ D- A+ C+ A- A D- B+ A+ A+ D A+ A+ 34% 37% 29% A A+ A+ A+ A+ C A A+ A+
1.25 77% 25% 48% +18 +2 1.42 16% 1.4 .23 17% .38 64% .24 0.76 32% 46% 16% -14 -2 0.69 24% 0.9 .22 14% .22 53% .12
Dec
6		 Rutgers A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 3% 48% A+ A+ A A+ A+ B C- F D+ A+ B A- A+ A+ 22% 43% 35% A+ A+ B- F+ D+ A+ A+ A- A+
1.39 75% 50% 46% +18 +3 1.43 42% 1.3 .54 15% .24 67% .16 0.83 50% 30% 21% -12 -4 0.70 33% 1.3 .42 22% .16 67% .11
Dec
9		 Villanova A- A A+ F C+ 35% 15% 51% B+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A A+ F A- A+ A+ D A+ A+ 14% 25% 61% A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A A A A
1.14 68% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 36% 1.5 .52 15% .38 56% .21 0.78 38% 43% 26% -9 -2 0.79 14% 1.2 .16 19% .22 64% .14
Dec
13		 Maryland A+ B A+ A+ A+ 57% 8% 36% A+ A+ D+ B+ C A- A A+ A+ C- B+ C F F+ 27% 29% 44% A+ D C F F C- A+ B- A+
1.45 63% 50% 63% +20 +3 1.47 25% 1.2 .29 13% .36 86% .31 1.19 50% 40% 43% +5 -2 1.08 35% 1.6 .58 17% .22 69% .16
Dec
21		 La Salle A+ A+ F A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% B A+ B- F D- A- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 19% 46% 35% A+ A+ B- C+ B- A+ A- F C-
1.37 80% 17% 52% +20 +1 1.43 33% 0.7 .24 13% .46 67% .31 0.67 40% 28% 11% -20 -5 0.52 31% 0.9 .29 25% .27 93% .25
Dec
29		 McNeese St. A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ 48% 10% 42% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ D- C- B+ C
1.34 79% 60% 29% +9 +2 1.24 48% 1.7 .83 18% .66 69% .45 0.85 39% 32% 24% -14 -2 0.71 29% 0.7 .21 11% .32 71% .23
Jan
2		 USC A- A+ F F B+ 43% 12% 45% A- A- B- A B+ A A+ D+ A+ A+ D A A+ A+ 18% 41% 41% A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ F A D+
1.15 80% 29% 23% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .34 13% .54 72% .39 0.79 67% 30% 25% -7 -4 0.80 28% 0.7 .20 25% .53 64% .34
Jan
6		 Penn St. C- C+ A+ F D- 46% 8% 46% A D+ F B+ D- B A+ C A A A+ B A+ A+ 26% 26% 47% A+ A+ D F F C- D- D F+
1.04 61% 50% 26% -3 +2 1.00 20% 1.4 .29 17% .32 74% .24 1.01 43% 36% 16% -17 -2 0.64 33% 1.5 .49 14% .37 78% .29
Jan
10		 Wisconsin A C+ A+ B- B+ 51% 11% 38% A+ A- B C B- A- A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F F D 31% 13% 56% B D+ B+ F F B- D C- D
1.22 56% 67% 35% +3 +2 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 12% .38 92% .35 1.26 56% 57% 41% +8 0 1.19 26% 1.9 .48 14% .37 78% .29
Jan
14		 Washington A A+ F F D 37% 28% 35% B- D+ A+ A+ A+ A C A B- A F B+ A+ A+ 9% 38% 54% A+ A+ C- F F B- A+ D- A
1.15 80% 27% 11% -7 -1 0.85 40% 1.5 .60 11% .27 76% .21 1.01 100% 33% 23% -6 -4 0.80 38% 1.4 .52 17% .19 82% .15
Jan
17		 Oregon A D+ A+ A+ A- 51% 2% 47% A+ A A+ B A+ F+ A+ C- A+ B+ A B+ A+ A+ 39% 29% 31% A A+ D+ F F+ C B+ B- B+
1.20 50% 100% 45% +5 +3 1.19 44% 1.0 .44 21% .56 73% .41 1.05 45% 33% 25% -11 -1 0.78 38% 1.3 .51 16% .28 69% .19
Jan
20		 Indiana A+ B- F A+ A+ 48% 2% 50% A+ A+ A A A+ D+ A+ F A+ A C A+ C A 25% 13% 62% A A A+ A+ A+ C+ B D- C+
1.23 57% 0% 41% +4 +3 1.16 38% 1.3 .50 19% .58 67% .39 1.03 62% 29% 34% 0 0 1.02 15% 0.8 .12 14% .30 83% .25
Jan
23		 Ohio St. B A+ A F C- 47% 5% 49% A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 24% 34% 42% A+ A+ B- C C+ A A+ A+ A+
1.14 70% 50% 19% -5 +3 0.98 44% 1.9 .85 22% .49 60% .29 0.95 50% 47% 24% -5 -3 0.86 33% 1.1 .36 20% .17 67% .12
Jan
27		 Nebraska B A+ F F B- 38% 9% 53% A+ B+ A A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A D- B- D C 32% 16% 52% B C+ A- A+ A+ B A+ C+ A+
1.05 76% 25% 25% -1 +1 1.02 36% 1.6 .56 27% .44 83% .36 1.01 72% 33% 38% +7 0 1.16 21% 0.7 .15 15% .07 75% .05
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
30		 Michigan St. A+ A- D+ C+ B+ 32% 32% 36% D B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- C- A+ A+ 35% 31% 35% B+ A+ B A+ A+ B- F F F
1.14 63% 31% 33% -1 -2 0.96 34% 1.3 .44 18% .44 88% .39 0.98 65% 40% 18% -6 -2 0.88 38% 0.4 .15 19% .46 85% .39
Feb
5		 Penn St. A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 46% 11% 43% A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A D B- A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% A A+ A A+ A+ F F+ F+ F
1.54 73% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.39 48% 2.0 .96 13% .27 88% .24 0.97 65% 38% 11% -9 -1 0.81 21% 0.7 .14 7% .39 81% .32
Feb
8		 Ohio St. A+ C+ D- A+ A 44% 22% 35% A- A+ A+ F+ B A F A+ F A+ A+ B- B- A+ 25% 35% 40% A+ A+ A+ B- A B+ A- F B-
1.24 58% 33% 47% +6 0 1.15 44% 0.8 .36 12% .12 86% .10 0.92 42% 41% 32% -4 -3 0.88 25% 1.0 .25 18% .30 88% .26
Feb
11		 Northwestern A- C+ F D+ C+ 53% 8% 39% A+ B A+ A- A+ B- A+ C A+ A A+ F A A 30% 33% 37% A+ A+ C+ A+ A- D+ A+ F A-
1.16 59% 25% 30% -3 +3 1.02 49% 1.1 .54 16% .43 70% .30 1.00 39% 50% 27% -5 -2 0.87 29% 1.0 .29 11% .21 93% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.9 29.5 37.3 19.0 91.8 1st
2nd 0.7 4.5 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 1.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 2.5 11.4 29.5 37.3 19.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 19.0    19.0
18-2 100.0% 37.3    37.3
17-3 100.0% 29.5    17.7 10.1 1.6 0.1
16-4 51.5% 5.9    0.9 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1
15-5 5.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 91.8% 91.8 74.9 12.5 3.5 0.8 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 19.0% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 1.1 17.8 1.2 100.0%
18-2 37.3% 100.0% 48.7% 51.3% 1.1 32.9 4.5 0.0 100.0%
17-3 29.5% 100.0% 44.4% 55.6% 1.2 24.4 5.0 0.1 100.0%
16-4 11.4% 100.0% 38.6% 61.4% 1.3 8.5 2.9 0.1 100.0%
15-5 2.5% 100.0% 34.1% 65.9% 1.3 1.7 0.8 0.1 100.0%
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 27.7% 72.3% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 46.7% 53.3% 1.1 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.6% 100.0% 1.0 96.1 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0% 100.0% 1.1 94.7 5.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 100.0% 1.1 91.6 8.4