IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+24.6	#1
Expected Predictive Rating	+26.7	#5

Pace	78.9	#11
Improvement	-5.3	#351

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#7	A	A+	B	A-	A+
Defense	#1	A+	B	B-	A	A+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	49%	#7	1.38	#10	+11.3	#1
2 Pt. Jumpers	7%	#361	0.84	#69	-4.7	#359
Three Pointers	44%	#126	1.04	#142	+2.1	#113
1st FG Attempt			1.19	#11	+8.7	#10
Freethrows	0.38	#10	73%	#155	0.27	#18
Second Chance	37.4%	#21	1.49	#1	0.56	#1
Turnovers					14.4%	#62
Total Offense					+11.5	#7

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	25%	#362	0.80	#1	+12.4	#1
2 Pt. Jumpers	31%	#8	0.63	#14	-1.8	#315
Three Pointers	44%	#82	0.84	#12	+2.3	#98
1st FG Attempt			0.76	#1	+12.9	#1
Freethrows	0.21	#6	69%	#46	0.14	#6
Second Chance	23.9%	#12	1.07	#228	0.26	#42
Turnovers					18.1%	#75
Total Defense					+13.2	#1

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	4.8%	#3	-4.5%	#3
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	11.6%	#26	-21.7%	#1
Possession Length	13.4	#1	19.1	#355
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.27	#13	0.06	#1
Improvement	-2.0	#292	-3.3	#338

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	22.3%	27.8%	16.0%
#1 Seed	69.0%	75.5%	61.7%
Top 2 Seed	95.9%	98.0%	93.5%
Top 4 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Top 6 Seed	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Average Seed	1.4	1.3	1.5

.500 or above	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
.500 or above in Conference	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Conference Champion	47.3%	62.5%	30.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
Second Round	99.7%	99.7%	99.6%
Sweet Sixteen	83.7%	84.9%	82.4%
Elite Eight	61.4%	63.8%	58.8%
Final Four	42.4%	44.6%	39.9%
Championship Game	27.3%	28.7%	25.6%
National Champion	16.9%	18.3%	15.2%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

1 seed

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	8 - 3	8 - 3
Quad 1b	6 - 0	14 - 4
Quad 2	9 - 1	22 - 4
Quad 3	5 - 0	27 - 5
Quad 4	1 - 0	29 - 5

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Mon, Nov 3	132 Oakland	W	121 - 78	98%	+27	1 - 0		+42	+31	A+	A+	A	+6	C	A+	C+
Tue, Nov 11	69 Wake Forest	W	85 - 84 OT	93%	+2	2 - 0		+9	+1	D+	A	C+	+9	A+	D+	C
Fri, Nov 14	46 @TCU	W	67 - 63	83%	-2	3 - 0		+19	+3	C-	A+	F	+15	A+	A+	C+
Wed, Nov 19	152 Middle Tennessee	W	86 - 61	99%	+13	4 - 0		+22	+4	C-	A+	D+	+16	A+	C+	B+
Mon, Nov 24	41 San Diego St.	W	94 - 54	88%	+18	5 - 0		+52	+22	A-	A+	A-	+27	A+	A+	A+
Tue, Nov 25	25 Auburn	W	102 - 72	80%	+21	6 - 0		+46	+32	B	A+	A+	+13	A+	A+	D
Wed, Nov 26	11 Gonzaga	W	101 - 61	69%	+25	7 - 0		+60	+24	A+	B	A-	+30	A+	A+	C
Sat, Dec 6	118 Rutgers	W	101 - 60	98%	+22	8 - 0	1 - 0	+41	+24	A+	A+	B	+15	A+	C-	A+
Tue, Dec 9	36 Villanova	W	89 - 61	89%	+23	9 - 0		+39	+12	C+	A+	A	+24	A+	A+	A-
Sat, Dec 13	106 @Maryland	W	101 - 83	94%	+3	10 - 0	2 - 0	+25	+33	A+	C+	A-	-7	D	F	C
Sun, Dec 21	208 La Salle	W	102 - 50	99%	+24	11 - 0		+46	+20	A+	D-	B+	+23	A+	B	A+
Mon, Dec 29	81 McNeese St.	W	112 - 71	96%	+30	12 - 0		+45	+22	A+	A+	A+	+16	A+	A+	D+
Fri, Jan 2	44 USC	W	96 - 66	92%	+16	13 - 0	3 - 0	+39	+13	B+	B+	A	+21	A+	A	A+
Tue, Jan 6	116 @Penn St.	W	74 - 72	95%	+5	14 - 0	4 - 0	+8	-0	D+	D	B-	+8	A+	F	C-
Sat, Jan 10	39 Wisconsin	L	88 - 91	91%	+2	14 - 1	4 - 1	+7	+16	A	B-	B+	-9	D+	F	B-
Wed, Jan 14	45 @Washington	W	82 - 72	83%	+8	15 - 1	5 - 1	+25	+14	C-	A+	A	+10	A+	F	B
Sat, Jan 17	79 @Oregon	W	81 - 71	90%	+6	16 - 1	6 - 1	+20	+16	A+	A+	F	+4	A+	F+	C
Tue, Jan 20	31 Indiana	W	86 - 72	89%	+14	17 - 1	7 - 1	+26	+17	A+	A+	C-	+9	A	A+	C
Fri, Jan 23	35 Ohio St.	W	74 - 62	89%	+2	18 - 1	8 - 1	+23	+10	B-	A+	F	+14	A+	C	A-
Tue, Jan 27	13 Nebraska	W	75 - 72	79%	-4	19 - 1	9 - 1	+19	+9	B+	A+	F	+10	C+	A+	B+
Fri, Jan 30	8 @Michigan St.	W	74 - 73	53%
Thu, Feb 5	116 Penn St.	W	94 - 69	99%
Sun, Feb 8	35 @Ohio St.	W	84 - 76	77%
Wed, Feb 11	59 @Northwestern	W	84 - 72	87%
Sat, Feb 14	34 UCLA	W	82 - 68	90%
Tue, Feb 17	9 @Purdue	W	79 - 78	54%
Sat, Feb 21	3 Duke	W	78 - 77	55%
Tue, Feb 24	73 Minnesota	W	82 - 62	97%
Fri, Feb 27	7 @Illinois	W	81 - 80	54%
Thu, Mar 5	23 @Iowa	W	77 - 71	70%
Sun, Mar 8	8 Michigan St.	W	77 - 70	75%
Totals						27 - 4	17 - 3	+25	+11	A	A+	B	+13	A+	B	B-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big Ten Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st																0.1	4.8	18.1	17.8	6.5		47.3	1st
2nd															0.1	2.3	11.8	8.7	1.4			24.3	2nd
3rd															0.6	6.5	7.3	0.7				15.1	3rd
4th														0.1	2.8	4.7	1.1					8.6	4th
5th													0.0	0.8	1.9	0.9						3.5	5th
6th													0.1	0.5	0.3							1.0	6th
7th												0.0	0.0	0.0								0.1	7th
8th																							8th
9th												0.0										0.0	9th
10th																							10th
11th																							11th
12th																							12th
13th																							13th
14th																							14th
15th																							15th
16th																							16th
17th																							17th
18th																							18th

Total												0.0	0.2	1.5	5.7	14.3	25.0	27.6	19.2	6.5			Total

Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	6.5	6.3	0.2
18-2	92.7%	17.8	12.9	4.6	0.3
17-3	65.7%	18.1	6.6	8.5	2.7	0.3
16-4	19.1%	4.8	0.5	1.9	1.8	0.5	0.0
15-5	0.7%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
14-6	0.0%
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10

Total	47.3%	47.3	26.4	15.2	4.9	0.8	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	6.5%	100.0%	45.4%	54.6%	1.1	6.1	0.4																100.0%
18-2	19.2%	100.0%	46.5%	53.5%	1.1	16.5	2.7	0.0															100.0%
17-3	27.6%	100.0%	41.8%	58.2%	1.2	20.9	6.4	0.2															100.0%
16-4	25.0%	100.0%	35.9%	64.1%	1.4	16.2	8.3	0.5	0.0														100.0%
15-5	14.3%	100.0%	27.7%	72.3%	1.6	7.2	5.7	1.4	0.1														100.0%
14-6	5.7%	100.0%	30.1%	69.9%	1.9	1.9	2.7	0.9	0.2	0.0													100.0%
13-7	1.5%	100.0%	21.0%	79.0%	2.3	0.3	0.6	0.4	0.2														100.0%
12-8	0.2%	100.0%	18.9%	81.1%	3.1		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0													100.0%
11-9	0.0%							0.0	0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	100.0%	38.4%	61.6%	1.4																		100.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2
Win Out	1.9%	100.0%	1.0	95.6	4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.7%	100.0%	1.1	91.0	9.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.9%	100.0%	1.0	96.2	3.8