Michigan
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+27.4#1
Expected Predictive Rating+27.6#3
Pace81.5#7
Improvement+3.5#21

Offense
Total Offense+13.0#3
First Shot+10.7#5
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#51
Layup/Dunks+7.4#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#72
Freethrows+1.7#86
Improvement+3.0#17

Defense
Total Defense+14.4#1
First Shot+13.5#1
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#117
Layups/Dunks+15.8#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#363
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#220
Freethrows+5.5#2
Improvement+0.5#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 36.3% 36.8% 26.1%
#1 Seed 81.7% 82.2% 72.2%
Top 2 Seed 98.1% 98.2% 95.2%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.2 1.2 1.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 76.2% 77.4% 51.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.8% 99.8% 99.5%
Sweet Sixteen89.8% 90.0% 86.4%
Elite Eight74.6% 75.0% 66.8%
Final Four57.0% 57.4% 47.9%
Championship Game41.8% 42.2% 32.0%
National Champion29.7% 30.0% 24.0%

Next Game: USC (Home) - 95.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 28 - 2
Quad 1b8 - 016 - 3
Quad 28 - 024 - 3
Quad 35 - 029 - 3
Quad 42 - 031 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 144 Oakland W 121-78 99%     26.7   1 - 0 +40.9 +31.3 +5.4
  Tue, Nov 11 63 Wake Forest W 85-84 OT 95%     2.1   2 - 0 +9.8 +0.9 +8.8
  Fri, Nov 14 48 @TCU W 67-63 89%     -1.6   3 - 0 +17.8 +3.1 +14.6
  Wed, Nov 19 139 Middle Tennessee W 86-61 99%     12.7   4 - 0 +23.2 +3.5 +17.0
  Mon, Nov 24 52 San Diego St. W 94-54 93%     17.7   5 - 0 +50.3 +20.1 +27.3
  Tue, Nov 25 32 Auburn W 102-72 89%     20.5   6 - 0 +44.2 +32.1 +11.6
  Wed, Nov 26 7 Gonzaga W 101-61 73%     24.9   7 - 0 +61.1 +23.2 +32.7
  Sat, Dec 6 142 Rutgers W 101-60 99%     22.4   8 - 0 1 - 0 +39.0 +24.9 +12.6
  Tue, Dec 9 33 Villanova W 89-61 93%     22.9   9 - 0 +39.1 +12.5 +23.9
  Sat, Dec 13 89 @Maryland W 101-83 95%     3.1   10 - 0 2 - 0 +27.0 +33.3 -6.2
  Sun, Dec 21 240 La Salle W 102-50 99.6%    23.7   11 - 0 +44.8 +20.7 +20.8
  Mon, Dec 29 76 McNeese St. W 112-71 97%     30.3   12 - 0 +45.4 +23.7 +15.0
  Fri, Jan 2 40 USC W 93-75 95%    
  Tue, Jan 6 124 @Penn St. W 93-71 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 45 Wisconsin W 91-72 96%    
  Wed, Jan 14 49 @Washington W 85-71 90%    
  Sun, Jan 18 56 @Oregon W 88-73 92%    
  Tue, Jan 20 29 Indiana W 87-71 93%    
  Fri, Jan 23 31 Ohio St. W 90-74 94%    
  Tue, Jan 27 26 Nebraska W 87-72 93%    
  Fri, Jan 30 17 @Michigan St. W 80-73 75%    
  Thu, Feb 5 124 Penn St. W 96-68 99.6%   
  Sun, Feb 8 31 @Ohio St. W 87-77 83%    
  Wed, Feb 11 57 @Northwestern W 86-71 92%    
  Sat, Feb 14 30 UCLA W 86-70 93%    
  Tue, Feb 17 3 @Purdue W 79-77 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 5 Duke W 82-77 69%    
  Tue, Feb 24 95 Minnesota W 84-59 99%    
  Fri, Feb 27 9 @Illinois W 83-79 65%    
  Thu, Mar 5 19 @Iowa W 78-70 76%    
  Sun, Mar 8 17 Michigan St. W 83-70 88%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 18 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.5 13.1 23.3 24.1 11.8 76.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 5.6 5.7 2.4 0.3 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.6 0.2 4.5 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 5.5 10.9 19.0 25.7 24.4 11.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 11.8    11.8
19-1 98.7% 24.1    22.4 1.7
18-2 90.6% 23.3    18.0 5.2 0.1
17-3 69.1% 13.1    7.4 4.8 0.9 0.1
16-4 32.1% 3.5    1.1 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 7.1% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total 76.2% 76.2 60.7 13.2 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 11.8% 100.0% 68.1% 31.9% 1.1 11.0 0.7 0.0 100.0%
19-1 24.4% 100.0% 62.4% 37.6% 1.1 22.4 2.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 25.7% 100.0% 55.8% 44.2% 1.1 22.2 3.5 0.0 100.0%
17-3 19.0% 100.0% 48.6% 51.4% 1.2 15.0 3.8 0.1 100.0%
16-4 10.9% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.4 7.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.5% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.5 3.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.8% 100.0% 26.0% 74.0% 2.0 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-7 0.7% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 2.5 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.2% 100.0% 25.0% 75.0% 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 54.0% 46.0% 1.2 81.7 16.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.0% 100.0% 1.1 94.2 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.2% 100.0% 1.1 91.9 8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 1.1 94.3 5.7