Michigan
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.8#21
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#61
Pace66.3#253
Improvement-2.1#308

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#31
First Shot+3.4#79
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#51
Layup/Dunks+2.4#95
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#210
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement-1.8#311

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#15
First Shot+8.1#16
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#206
Layups/Dunks+2.8#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#73
Freethrows+5.2#3
Improvement-0.3#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
#1 Seed 3.3% 4.0% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.5% 10.3% 3.5%
Top 4 Seed 25.5% 29.4% 14.5%
Top 6 Seed 45.0% 50.1% 30.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.2% 78.7% 61.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.0% 76.6% 59.5%
Average Seed 6.0 5.7 6.8
.500 or above 88.6% 92.2% 78.3%
.500 or above in Conference 76.1% 82.1% 59.2%
Conference Champion 7.9% 9.6% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 2.5%
First Four5.1% 4.7% 6.4%
First Round72.2% 76.9% 59.1%
Second Round51.1% 55.3% 39.4%
Sweet Sixteen25.8% 28.6% 18.2%
Elite Eight12.1% 13.7% 7.7%
Final Four5.6% 6.3% 3.7%
Championship Game2.4% 2.7% 1.6%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.6%

Next Game: Nebraska (Away) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 10
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 35 - 017 - 13
Quad 44 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 69   Buffalo W 88-76 82%     1 - 0 +16.1 +11.2 +4.4
  Nov 13, 2021 249   Prairie View W 77-49 95%     2 - 0 +23.5 -2.5 +24.7
  Nov 16, 2021 26   Seton Hall L 65-67 63%     2 - 1 +8.4 -0.5 +8.8
  Nov 19, 2021 168   UNLV W 74-61 89%     3 - 1 +13.1 +6.2 +7.8
  Nov 21, 2021 5   Arizona L 62-80 32%     3 - 2 +0.6 -1.9 +2.6
  Nov 24, 2021 191   Tarleton St. W 65-54 94%     4 - 2 +6.9 +0.2 +7.9
  Dec 01, 2021 24   @ North Carolina L 51-72 40%     4 - 3 -4.6 -12.7 +6.4
  Dec 04, 2021 52   San Diego St. W 72-58 77%     5 - 3 +19.9 +7.2 +13.0
  Dec 07, 2021 109   @ Nebraska W 74-67 74%    
  Dec 11, 2021 71   Minnesota W 72-62 82%    
  Dec 18, 2021 133   Southern Utah W 78-64 91%    
  Dec 21, 2021 271   Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-60 98%    
  Dec 30, 2021 63   @ Central Florida W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 04, 2022 102   @ Rutgers W 67-61 71%    
  Jan 08, 2022 18   Michigan St. W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 11, 2022 1   Purdue L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 14, 2022 17   @ Illinois L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 18, 2022 60   Maryland W 71-62 79%    
  Jan 23, 2022 31   @ Indiana L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 26, 2022 39   Northwestern W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 18   @ Michigan St. L 66-69 38%    
  Feb 01, 2022 109   Nebraska W 77-64 87%    
  Feb 05, 2022 1   @ Purdue L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 08, 2022 92   @ Penn St. W 65-60 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 22   Ohio St. W 70-67 60%    
  Feb 17, 2022 20   @ Iowa L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 20, 2022 28   @ Wisconsin L 63-65 43%    
  Feb 23, 2022 102   Rutgers W 70-58 86%    
  Feb 27, 2022 17   Illinois W 72-70 58%    
  Mar 03, 2022 20   Iowa W 78-75 60%    
  Mar 06, 2022 22   @ Ohio St. L 67-70 40%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 7.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 3.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.7 1.4 0.1 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.2 1.8 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 4.9 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.2 0.6 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.0 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 4.3 6.5 9.1 12.2 13.1 13.4 12.3 10.1 6.9 4.4 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 96.8% 1.0    0.8 0.1 0.0
17-3 80.9% 1.9    1.4 0.4 0.0
16-4 54.1% 2.4    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 24.5% 1.7    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.5% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 4.3 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 80.0% 20.0% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.0% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.3% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.8 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.4% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 2.4 0.8 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 6.9% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.2 0.5 1.4 2.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.1% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 4.2 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.3 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.3% 99.7% 10.2% 89.5% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.3 3.0 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-8 13.4% 98.5% 6.1% 92.4% 6.5 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 3.2 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 98.4%
11-9 13.1% 90.0% 3.8% 86.1% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 89.6%
10-10 12.2% 68.0% 2.8% 65.2% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 67.1%
9-11 9.1% 32.0% 1.7% 30.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.2 30.8%
8-12 6.5% 9.1% 1.4% 7.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.9 7.8%
7-13 4.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.8%
6-14 2.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.1%
5-15 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.0 1.2
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 74.2% 8.0% 66.3% 6.0 3.3 5.3 7.5 9.5 10.0 9.5 8.2 6.0 4.4 3.9 3.9 2.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 25.8 72.0%