Alabama
Southeastern
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.0#10
Expected Predictive Rating+18.3#10
Pace80.5#9
Improvement+0.1#172

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#10
First Shot+4.7#52
After Offensive Rebound+4.6#3
Layup/Dunks+0.5#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#27
Freethrows-0.7#222
Improvement+0.0#184

Defense
Total Defense+7.6#17
First Shot+7.3#19
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#155
Layups/Dunks+6.5#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#102
Freethrows+1.1#131
Improvement+0.1#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.5% 9.8% 4.6%
#1 Seed 27.0% 33.3% 19.2%
Top 2 Seed 51.3% 60.0% 40.6%
Top 4 Seed 78.8% 85.6% 70.3%
Top 6 Seed 91.2% 95.2% 86.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.6% 99.5% 97.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.3% 99.3% 97.0%
Average Seed 3.0 2.6 3.6
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.1% 96.5% 93.4%
Conference Champion 29.3% 32.7% 24.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.4% 1.4%
First Round98.2% 99.3% 96.9%
Second Round85.4% 89.0% 80.8%
Sweet Sixteen56.8% 61.6% 50.8%
Elite Eight32.2% 36.2% 27.4%
Final Four17.0% 19.7% 13.6%
Championship Game8.7% 10.3% 6.8%
National Champion4.3% 5.2% 3.2%

Next Game: Houston (Home) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 56 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 210 - 7
Quad 26 - 116 - 8
Quad 37 - 123 - 9
Quad 42 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 85   Louisiana Tech W 93-64 90%     1 - 0 +32.1 +16.8 +14.4
  Nov 12, 2021 68   South Dakota St. W 104-88 88%     2 - 0 +20.2 +14.4 +3.6
  Nov 16, 2021 122   South Alabama W 73-68 93%     3 - 0 +5.0 -9.0 +13.3
  Nov 19, 2021 114   Oakland W 86-59 93%     4 - 0 +27.6 +12.9 +14.2
  Nov 25, 2021 97   Iona L 68-72 86%     4 - 1 +1.2 -5.0 +6.5
  Nov 26, 2021 72   Drake W 80-71 83%     5 - 1 +16.0 +5.6 +9.9
  Nov 28, 2021 100   Miami (FL) W 96-64 87%     6 - 1 +36.8 +22.1 +14.3
  Dec 04, 2021 2   Gonzaga W 91-82 38%     7 - 1 +29.1 +13.5 +14.5
  Dec 11, 2021 4   Houston W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 14, 2021 34   @ Memphis W 81-79 58%    
  Dec 18, 2021 164   Jacksonville St. W 84-64 97%    
  Dec 20, 2021 32   Colorado St. W 84-79 68%    
  Dec 29, 2021 13   Tennessee W 78-74 65%    
  Jan 05, 2022 30   @ Florida W 77-75 57%    
  Jan 08, 2022 158   @ Missouri W 81-68 89%    
  Jan 11, 2022 16   Auburn W 83-78 68%    
  Jan 15, 2022 48   @ Mississippi St. W 77-73 66%    
  Jan 19, 2022 11   LSU W 80-77 62%    
  Jan 22, 2022 158   Missouri W 84-65 96%    
  Jan 25, 2022 150   @ Georgia W 85-72 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 3   Baylor W 79-78 54%    
  Feb 01, 2022 16   @ Auburn L 80-81 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 15   Kentucky W 81-76 66%    
  Feb 09, 2022 61   @ Mississippi W 74-68 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 25   Arkansas W 86-79 72%    
  Feb 16, 2022 48   Mississippi St. W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 19, 2022 15   @ Kentucky L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 22, 2022 86   @ Vanderbilt W 80-72 76%    
  Feb 26, 2022 118   South Carolina W 88-72 93%    
  Mar 02, 2022 76   Texas A&M W 78-65 88%    
  Mar 05, 2022 11   @ LSU L 77-80 41%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 6.3 9.5 7.4 3.5 0.8 29.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.9 7.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 5.6 5.9 1.6 0.1 14.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.7 5.4 1.6 0.1 11.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.6 1.6 0.1 8.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.4 2.0 0.2 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.9 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.9 8.1 11.6 14.5 16.3 15.2 12.3 7.7 3.5 0.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 99.7% 3.5    3.5 0.1
16-2 95.3% 7.4    6.3 1.0 0.0
15-3 77.0% 9.5    5.8 3.2 0.4 0.0
14-4 41.1% 6.3    2.0 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.6% 1.7    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.3% 29.3 18.6 7.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 100.0% 47.6% 52.4% 1.1 0.8 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.5% 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 1.1 3.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.7% 100.0% 38.8% 61.2% 1.2 5.9 1.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.3% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 1.5 7.2 4.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.2% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.8 5.9 6.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.3% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 2.4 3.0 6.5 4.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.5% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 3.2 1.0 3.5 4.6 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.6% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 4.1 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.5 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 8.1% 99.8% 7.2% 92.6% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 4.9% 98.2% 4.1% 94.1% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.1%
8-10 2.8% 89.8% 3.8% 86.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 89.4%
7-11 1.3% 68.1% 2.8% 65.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 67.2%
6-12 0.5% 43.0% 1.5% 41.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 42.1%
5-13 0.2% 11.8% 1.0% 10.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.9%
4-14 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1 2.4%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.6% 20.6% 78.0% 3.0 27.0 24.3 15.8 11.6 7.7 4.8 2.8 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 98.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.5 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.0 4.0