Alabama
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.5#5
Expected Predictive Rating+19.6#9
Pace80.5#7
Improvement+1.2#110

Offense
Total Offense+12.5#3
First Shot+9.2#9
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#39
Layup/Dunks+5.8#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#80
Freethrows+3.1#49
Improvement+0.6#130

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#33
First Shot+2.7#95
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#19
Layups/Dunks+3.5#73
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#37
Freethrows-0.8#244
Improvement+0.5#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.3% 9.1% 4.8%
#1 Seed 30.3% 32.7% 19.1%
Top 2 Seed 57.5% 60.7% 42.4%
Top 4 Seed 85.0% 87.3% 74.4%
Top 6 Seed 92.9% 94.4% 85.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 99.0% 95.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.2% 98.8% 95.4%
Average Seed 2.7 2.6 3.4
.500 or above 99.1% 99.5% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 88.6% 81.0%
Conference Champion 16.5% 17.6% 11.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
First Four0.9% 0.7% 2.2%
First Round98.0% 98.7% 95.0%
Second Round90.6% 92.0% 84.0%
Sweet Sixteen62.3% 64.1% 53.9%
Elite Eight37.1% 38.7% 29.7%
Final Four20.4% 21.4% 15.4%
Championship Game10.8% 11.5% 7.4%
National Champion5.4% 5.8% 3.4%

Next Game: Creighton (Home) - 82.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 77 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 212 - 9
Quad 25 - 117 - 10
Quad 34 - 021 - 10
Quad 42 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 193   UNC Asheville W 110-54 97%     1 - 0 +51.6 +27.4 +21.0
  Nov 08, 2024 130   Arkansas St. W 88-79 96%     2 - 0 +7.6 +0.6 +5.4
  Nov 11, 2024 95   McNeese St. W 72-64 92%     3 - 0 +10.6 +3.1 +7.9
  Nov 15, 2024 21   @ Purdue L 78-87 54%     3 - 1 +8.5 +14.2 -6.1
  Nov 20, 2024 14   Illinois W 100-87 62%     4 - 1 +28.3 +20.5 +5.9
  Nov 26, 2024 6   Houston W 85-80 OT 50%     5 - 1 +23.4 +15.8 +7.2
  Nov 27, 2024 58   Rutgers W 95-90 80%     6 - 1 +14.5 +16.4 -2.4
  Nov 30, 2024 22   Oregon L 81-83 66%     6 - 2 +12.3 +11.0 +1.4
  Dec 04, 2024 17   @ North Carolina W 94-79 53%     7 - 2 +32.8 +12.7 +17.7
  Dec 14, 2024 40   Creighton W 88-78 82%    
  Dec 18, 2024 289   @ North Dakota W 93-71 98%    
  Dec 22, 2024 110   Kent St. W 83-65 96%    
  Dec 29, 2024 120   South Dakota St. W 93-74 96%    
  Jan 04, 2025 41   Oklahoma W 86-76 83%    
  Jan 08, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 82-75 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 30   @ Texas A&M W 80-78 59%    
  Jan 14, 2025 26   Mississippi W 87-79 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 9   @ Kentucky L 88-90 42%    
  Jan 21, 2025 67   Vanderbilt W 92-79 88%    
  Jan 25, 2025 47   LSU W 89-78 84%    
  Jan 29, 2025 15   @ Mississippi St. W 84-83 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 38   Georgia W 87-77 81%    
  Feb 08, 2025 33   @ Arkansas W 85-82 59%    
  Feb 11, 2025 34   @ Texas W 81-78 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   Auburn W 87-86 54%    
  Feb 19, 2025 63   @ Missouri W 88-82 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 9   Kentucky W 91-87 63%    
  Feb 25, 2025 15   Mississippi St. W 86-80 71%    
  Mar 01, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 76-81 34%    
  Mar 05, 2025 10   Florida W 89-85 64%    
  Mar 08, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 84-89 33%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 5.2 3.3 1.4 0.2 16.5 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 5.9 5.2 1.7 0.2 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 5.7 4.7 1.1 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.1 1.2 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 5.4 1.5 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.3 2.4 0.2 8.1 6th
7th 0.3 2.9 3.2 0.4 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.1 0.9 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 1.5 0.1 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.3 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 6.0 9.0 12.2 14.7 14.8 13.6 10.9 7.0 3.5 1.4 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.3 0.0
16-2 94.1% 3.3    2.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 74.9% 5.2    3.3 1.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.6% 4.5    1.7 2.0 0.8 0.1
13-5 12.5% 1.7    0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 9.6 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 1.0 0.2 100.0%
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 1.1 1.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 3.5% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.1 3.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.0% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 1.2 5.4 1.5 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.9% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 1.4 7.1 3.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.6% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.6 6.4 5.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.8% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 2.0 4.3 6.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.7% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 2.5 1.9 5.7 5.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.2% 100.0% 6.1% 93.9% 3.2 0.6 2.6 4.7 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 9.0% 100.0% 4.0% 96.0% 3.9 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 6.0% 99.4% 2.7% 96.7% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
7-11 3.6% 96.0% 1.7% 94.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.0%
6-12 1.8% 77.5% 1.2% 76.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 77.3%
5-13 0.8% 31.1% 31.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6 31.1%
4-14 0.3% 4.3% 4.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.3%
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 98.4% 13.6% 84.8% 2.7 30.3 27.2 17.8 9.7 5.1 2.8 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.6 98.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0