Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +15.0 30
Results Rating +13.7 42
Consistency 0.15 153
Pace 67.1 223
Improvement +1.8 118

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 6 B+ A+ B A+ C+
Defense C+ 109 B- A- D C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 107 A- 67% 17 +5.5 24
2 Pt. Jumpers 35% 219 B+ 45% 35 +1.0 122
Three Pointers 39% 221 C+ 35% 134 -0.5 201
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 153 B+ +5.6 29
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.14 36
Second Chance A- 38.1% 14 A 1.24 9 A+ 0.47 5
Turnovers from Steals B 8.0% 46
Other Turnovers B- 6.7% 104
Turnovers B 14.7% 58
Freethrows A+ 0.40 3 B 76% 62 A+ 0.31 2
Total Offense A +12.7 6

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 47% 218 B- 9.0% 75
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 326 B 2.8% 34
Three Pointers F+ 73% 351 B 0.3% 50
Total D 48% 318 B 4.4% 49

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 166 B 52% 49 -1.9 112
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 29 B 34% 57 +1.5 304
Three Pointers 34% 350 D+ 36% 286 -2.4 78
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 59 B- -2.0 102
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 86
Second Chance A- 24.0% 13 B 0.95 61 A- 0.23 17
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.9% 224
Other Turnovers D- 6.0% 339
Turnovers D 14.8% 299
Freethrows D+ 0.33 255 C 72% 159 C- 0.24 247
Total Defense C+ +2.3 109

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 76 C 10.8% 180
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 61 C- 4.1% 224
Three Pointers A+ 69% 3 D+ 0.4% 297
Total A- 45% 19 C 5.4% 185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 140 18.1 306
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 25 0.12 34
Consistency 0.10 39 0.13 243
Improvement +2.4 80 -0.6 224

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status On The Bubble
Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 39 30 23
Results Rating Rank 49 39 27
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 10 8 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None 9 6
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Round Sweet 16

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 6 Seed 11% 24% 6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80% 94% 75%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80% 93% 74%
Average Seed 8.5 7.6 9.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 91% 100% 87%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four13% 4% 17%
First Round75% 92% 68%
Second Round42% 56% 37%
Sweet Sixteen12% 16% 10%
Elite Eight4% 6% 3%
Final Four1% 2% 1%
Championship Game0% 1% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Florida (Home) - 29.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b4 - 16 - 10
Quad 23 - 29 - 12
Quad 32 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 2 Duke L 60 - 75 16% -5  22% 0 - 1 B +11 C +1 D- A F A +9 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 326 Lafayette W 97 - 60 99% +18  99% 1 - 1 A+ +23 A+ +17 C+ A+ B- B+ +6 B+ D- A
 Wed, Nov 12 332 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99% +17  87% 2 - 1 A +21 B +6 B- B B+ A+ +13 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 360 UMKC W 71 - 55 100% +11  97% 3 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 F C A+ C+ +1 A B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 356 Rider W 99 - 65 99% +18  99% 4 - 1 A- +16 B+ +9 A- F A+ B+ +5 B- A- D+
 Mon, Nov 24 66 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 73% +2  77% 4 - 2 B- +8 B+ +8 A A+ F C -1 C- B C-
 Wed, Nov 26 28 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 50% +4  81% 5 - 2 A +20 A+ +30 A+ A+ A+ F -10 C- D F+
 Wed, Dec 3 20 Virginia L 69 - 88 49% -16  8% 5 - 3 C- -4 B +6 C A+ A+ F -11 D B- F
 Mon, Dec 8 260 Southern W 95 - 69 98% +17  94% 6 - 3 A- +17 A +14 A- A+ C+ B- +3 D A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 9 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 22% -6  5% 6 - 4 A- +15 C+ +2 D+ A B- A+ +12 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 300 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 98% +18  99% 7 - 4 A+ +31 A- +10 B- A+ F+ A+ +19 A+ B- D
 Mon, Dec 22 350 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 99% +11  100% 8 - 4 B- +6 A +12 A+ D B+ D -6 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 77 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 83% -1  24% 8 - 5 0 - 1 C +2 A- +10 B A+ B- F+ -8 C+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 17 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 27% -11  4% 8 - 6 0 - 2 B- +7 A- +10 C+ A+ F D+ -3 F+ C+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 19 @Alabama W 92 - 88 27% +5  86% 9 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +21 A- A+ A B +5 B A D
 Wed, Jan 14 15 Vanderbilt W 80 - 64 47% +6  88% 10 - 6 2 - 2 A+ +32 A+ +16 A+ A D- A+ +17 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 34 Texas A&M L 70 - 74 63% -3  28% 10 - 7 2 - 3 B- +8 B+ +8 C D A+ C -1 C+ B F
 Wed, Jan 21 23 @Kentucky L 80 - 85 36% -3  18% 10 - 8 2 - 4 B+ +14 A+ +15 C A+ A+ C -1 B A D-
 Sat, Jan 24 32 Georgia W 87 - 67 62% +3  46% 11 - 8 3 - 4 A+ +32 A+ +20 A+ A+ B- A+ +13 A+ B A
 Wed, Jan 28 37 @Auburn L 82 - 88 42% +3  66% 11 - 9 3 - 5 B +11 A+ +19 A+ B- B- F+ -9 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 51 @Oklahoma W 79 - 69 53% -4  16% 12 - 9 4 - 5 A+ +24 A- +10 A+ C+ F A+ +14 A+ C+ C
 Tue, Feb 3 91 South Carolina W 84 - 75 87% +1  53% 13 - 9 5 - 5 B+ +12 A +13 C A+ C C -0 B- B+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 76 Mississippi W 79 - 68 83% +6  76% 14 - 9 6 - 5 A- +16 A +14 C+ A+ B B- +3 A- B+ F+
 Sat, Feb 14 46 @Missouri W 85 - 68 52% +3  59% 15 - 9 7 - 5 A+ +31 A+ +22 A A+ A+ A+ +11 A+ D+ F+
 Tue, Feb 17 53 LSU W 88 - 85 77% +6  73% 16 - 9 8 - 5 B +10 A+ +16 A+ A+ A D -6 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 32 @Georgia L 80 - 91 39% -9  1% 16 - 10 8 - 6 B- +7 A+ +21 A+ F A F -16 F C- F
 Wed, Feb 25 4 Florida L 78 - 84 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 34 @Texas A&M L 82 - 85 41%
 Wed, Mar 4 16 @Arkansas L 83 - 89 27%
 Sat, Mar 7 51 Oklahoma W 85 - 78 74%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +15 A +13 A+ B+ C+ C+ +2 C+ B A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A- B+ C+ B+ 41% 35% 39% C+ B+ A- A A+ B A+ B A+ C+ B B D+ B- 39% 27% 34% B B- A- B A- D D+ C C-
1.27 67% 45% 35% +6 0 1.14 38% 1.2 .47 15% .40 76% .31 1.05 52% 34% 36% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .23 15% .33 72% .29
Nov
4		 Duke C F F B D- 40% 29% 31% C+ D- A+ C A F A+ B+ A+ A B A+ F A 46% 13% 41% B- A A A+ A+ C- F C F
0.90 33% 23% 36% -13 -1 0.73 41% 0.8 .32 24% .45 74% .34 1.13 57% 0% 42% 0 +2 1.04 32% 0.7 .24 15% .53 73% .39
Nov
8		 Lafayette A+ B A- C- C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ B+ A C+ B B+ 38% 26% 36% A- B+ D+ F D- A D+ B C-
1.41 65% 45% 33% +4 0 1.10 52% 1.7 .87 13% .48 76% .37 0.87 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 22% .32 65% .20
Nov
12		 Fairleigh Dickinson B A+ A+ F C+ 50% 10% 40% A B- A D B B+ A+ F B+ A+ A+ C- B- A- 41% 17% 41% D B+ A+ A+ A+ F A- A A
1.27 81% 60% 24% +7 +2 1.21 39% 0.9 .34 12% .53 56% .30 0.79 38% 40% 29% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.3 .06 12% .20 62% .12
Nov
15		 UMKC D+ C F F F 47% 12% 41% B F A- F C A+ A+ F A+ C+ B D+ A+ B+ 29% 48% 23% A+ A B- B- B- F A+ F A
1.13 61% 17% 15% -13 +2 0.80 44% 0.8 .37 8% .48 61% .29 0.87 50% 41% 8% -10 -4 0.73 24% 0.8 .20 10% .14 75% .11
Nov
18		 Rider B+ A+ A+ C+ A 39% 9% 53% C A- F C F A+ A+ D A+ B+ A+ B- C- C+ 25% 43% 32% A+ B- A+ C A- D+ D+ F F
1.32 82% 60% 37% +13 +2 1.32 18% 1.0 .18 8% .49 65% .32 0.87 36% 33% 33% -8 -4 0.79 21% 0.9 .19 16% .29 89% .25
Nov
24		 Arizona St. B+ A+ F F A- 57% 11% 33% A+ A A A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C C- A+ F D+ 39% 24% 37% B- C- A+ F B C- F D+ F
1.15 81% 0% 27% +5 +3 1.17 41% 1.5 .63 25% .48 74% .36 1.16 61% 9% 53% +5 0 1.11 21% 1.7 .34 15% .56 78% .44
Nov
26		 North Carolina St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 26% 11% 64% C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F F+ A+ F D+ 44% 25% 31% B+ C- A- F D F+ F B+ F+
1.42 67% 60% 47% +17 0 1.36 23% 2.0 .46 10% .51 85% .43 1.35 71% 21% 47% +7 0 1.16 24% 1.8 .42 8% .42 71% .30
Dec
3		 Virginia B C+ F F D+ 44% 22% 34% B+ C B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F D+ A+ F D 40% 15% 46% C+ D A+ F B- F F B F
1.06 55% 27% 24% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 11% .43 68% .29 1.35 63% 29% 45% +9 +1 1.21 24% 1.7 .41 11% .50 69% .34
Dec
8		 Southern A B+ B A+ A- 42% 16% 42% B A- B A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- C B F D 46% 32% 22% C- D C- A+ A+ B F B+ F+
1.33 67% 43% 44% +11 +1 1.26 38% 1.6 .58 18% .55 91% .50 0.96 57% 31% 45% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.3 .08 20% .43 64% .28
Dec
12		 Connecticut C+ F C- D- D+ 44% 31% 24% D+ D+ A+ B- A B- A+ D A+ A+ F D+ D- D- 43% 28% 28% A D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+
0.95 40% 36% 27% -11 -1 0.78 37% 1.0 .37 18% .52 68% .35 1.07 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 28% 1.0 .28 23% .25 54% .14
Dec
16		 Le Moyne A- C+ A+ D- C+ 41% 6% 54% A- B- A+ B- A+ F+ A- C B+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 29% 38% 33% A+ A+ B- B B- D D D D-
1.29 59% 100% 31% +1 +2 1.09 49% 1.2 .57 18% .38 74% .28 0.72 40% 30% 12% -19 -3 0.58 22% 0.9 .20 18% .38 74% .28
Dec
22		 Maryland Eastern Shore A A A+ B A+ 43% 17% 40% C+ A+ A- F D B+ A+ C A+ D C+ C- D D 50% 21% 29% F+ D- A- F D+ D- F C+ F
1.33 70% 63% 37% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.8 .31 13% .68 74% .50 1.01 54% 40% 36% -1 +1 1.02 22% 1.3 .28 20% .37 71% .27
Jan
3		 Mississippi St. A- A+ B+ F B+ 28% 32% 40% C- B B A+ A+ B- A+ C- A+ F+ C- B+ C- B- 32% 20% 48% C C+ F D+ F D+ F F+ F
1.19 81% 44% 22% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.4 .43 12% .55 73% .40 1.23 63% 33% 34% +1 0 1.03 41% 1.1 .46 13% .43 74% .32
Jan
6		 Tennessee A- F A+ B- C 34% 14% 52% B C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ F F+ 50% 18% 32% D+ F+ D+ B- C+ B- F D+ F
1.06 33% 50% 35% -6 +1 0.91 41% 1.4 .57 24% .39 80% .31 1.27 73% 25% 43% +9 +1 1.23 48% 1.0 .48 19% .54 72% .39
Jan
10		 Alabama A+ D+ F+ A+ A 31% 27% 42% C- A- A+ A- A+ A A+ C+ A+ B A+ A+ F B 41% 17% 43% B- B B A+ A D F+ A- D+
1.29 50% 29% 45% +2 -1 1.04 42% 1.1 .47 10% .50 69% .34 1.23 45% 33% 48% +3 +1 1.09 30% 0.9 .28 10% .42 70% .29
Jan
14		 Vanderbilt A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 24% 38% C+ A+ A+ C- A D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A F A 27% 33% 40% A+ A+ A A+ A+ B- A- B+ A
1.21 63% 60% 44% +12 0 1.26 44% 0.9 .40 23% .43 86% .37 0.97 43% 29% 43% -2 -2 0.94 24% 0.4 .10 15% .27 73% .20
Jan
17		 Texas A&M B+ B+ C D C+ 30% 28% 43% D C B- F D A+ A+ B A+ C B F D- B- 55% 6% 38% D- C+ A+ F B F C- A+ B-
1.13 64% 38% 30% -1 -2 0.98 31% 0.6 .20 13% .48 77% .37 1.19 54% 67% 39% +2 +3 1.13 19% 1.5 .28 10% .34 63% .21
Jan
21		 Kentucky A+ A+ B F C 41% 31% 28% C C A A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C C F B C+ 27% 40% 33% A+ B C- A+ A D- F F F
1.16 73% 41% 7% -4 -1 0.91 36% 1.2 .44 12% .33 90% .29 1.23 62% 47% 31% +3 -3 1.02 38% 0.8 .32 12% .57 86% .49
Jan
24		 Georgia A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 33% 35% 31% F A+ A+ A+ A+ B- D+ A C A+ C- A+ B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B- A+ B B- B A F A F
1.32 82% 56% 31% +13 -2 1.24 44% 1.4 .60 18% .22 75% .17 1.02 63% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 20% .47 68% .32
Jan
28		 Auburn A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% B- A+ C B+ B- B- A+ B+ A+ F+ B- F F F 39% 12% 49% C- F A+ B- A+ F F C+ F
1.29 57% 71% 46% +14 0 1.31 29% 1.1 .33 17% .44 78% .34 1.38 56% 60% 50% +14 +1 1.32 24% 1.0 .24 5% .64 74% .48
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Oklahoma A- A+ A+ B A+ 37% 22% 41% B- A+ F A+ C+ F C C C A+ A+ F+ A A+ 25% 27% 48% A+ A+ A F C+ C B A+ A
1.18 82% 60% 37% +16 0 1.33 22% 1.6 .35 21% .28 73% .21 1.03 38% 50% 28% -6 -2 0.87 27% 1.6 .43 13% .28 63% .17
Feb
3		 South Carolina A C+ F+ C+ C 32% 30% 38% D C A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+ C F A+ A+ B- 51% 29% 20% C+ B- A D B+ C F C+ F
1.23 60% 29% 33% -3 -2 0.94 47% 1.2 .56 16% .63 81% .51 1.10 80% 21% 10% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.2 .24 15% .41 79% .33
Feb
7		 Mississippi A C- A+ F B 34% 39% 27% F+ C+ B A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B- B+ F A+ B+ 17% 38% 44% A- A- B+ B B+ F+ C+ C- C
1.24 53% 53% 25% 0 -3 0.98 33% 2.2 .74 16% .43 87% .37 1.07 56% 50% 26% -1 -4 0.92 25% 1.0 .25 9% .30 76% .23
Feb
14		 Missouri A+ A+ F+ B A+ 35% 33% 31% D+ A A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ 55% 23% 23% C A+ A+ F D+ F+ F C F
1.32 83% 29% 38% +8 -2 1.14 44% 1.0 .44 11% .40 91% .37 1.05 45% 22% 33% -11 +1 0.83 27% 1.8 .47 14% .68 68% .47
Feb
17		 LSU A+ B- D+ A+ A+ 44% 27% 29% C A+ C A+ A+ A A+ C A+ D A- F F D 53% 29% 17% B- D+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F B-
1.28 60% 33% 54% +8 0 1.18 29% 1.9 .54 12% .56 68% .38 1.24 52% 59% 50% +7 0 1.16 21% 0.6 .12 7% .30 84% .25
Feb
21		 Georgia A+ A+ C A+ A+ 58% 18% 24% A- A+ D F F A A+ A A+ F C+ F F F 49% 12% 39% D+ F B+ F C- F A F B
1.29 69% 38% 55% +14 +2 1.33 27% 0.5 .14 15% .45 75% .34 1.47 60% 67% 55% +17 +2 1.39 33% 1.3 .42 8% .25 86% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.7 2.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.0 4.7 0.5 5.2 4th
5th 1.6 9.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 9.7 2.9 12.7 6th
7th 1.5 15.7 0.2 17.4 7th
8th 0.0 9.4 8.0 17.4 8th
9th 1.6 17.3 1.0 20.0 9th
10th 6.6 5.8 12.3 10th
11th 1.0 1.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 9.2 34.1 36.1 17.5 3.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.2% 99.7% 8.8% 90.9% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 17.5% 98.3% 4.2% 94.1% 6.9 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.2 6.7 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.3 98.2%
10-8 36.1% 91.5% 2.1% 89.5% 8.3 0.0 0.4 2.3 6.3 9.3 7.9 5.6 1.3 3.1 91.4%
9-9 34.1% 70.6% 1.6% 69.0% 9.9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 3.7 6.8 9.7 0.4 10.0 70.1%
8-10 9.2% 29.8% 1.4% 28.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.3 6.5 28.8%
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 80.2% 2.4% 77.8% 8.5 19.8 79.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.6 10.7 25.0 53.6 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 5.2 2.7 13.5 45.9 37.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 5.7 4.3 35.5 44.1 16.1
Lose Out 4.1% 6.3% 11.3 4.1 2.2