Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.7 #31
Expected Predictive Rating +12.2 #50
Pace 68.2 #200
Improvement +3.1 #58

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #9 B+ A B A C+
Defense #85 B- A- D+ C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #132 1.35 #17 +5.0 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #210 0.92 #24 +0.8 #129
Three Pointers 41% #187 1.03 #173 +0.2 #170
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #37 +6.0 #37
Freethrows 0.39 #5 74% #118 0.29 #4
Second Chance 38.2% #16 1.21 #18 0.46 #7
Turnovers 14.6% #58
Total Offense +11.4 #9

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #210 1.04 #47 +2.6 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #29 0.65 #37 -1.1 #275
Three Pointers 35% #335 1.11 #306 +1.5 #125
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #87 +2.9 #86
Freethrows 0.33 #269 71% #122 0.23 #245
Second Chance 24.7% #15 0.92 #47 0.23 #15
Turnovers 15.0% #280
Total Defense +3.3 #85

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #141 -1.8% #48
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.9% #35 -3.9% #98
Possession Length 16.8 #125 18.1 #307
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #15 0.12 #30
Improvement +2.3 #65 +0.7 #144

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 11.6% 12.8% 3.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.7% 76.5% 55.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 72.8% 75.7% 54.2%
Average Seed 8.4 8.3 9.0
.500 or above 92.9% 95.0% 79.1%
.500 or above in Conference 68.1% 72.5% 39.3%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four11.7% 11.4% 13.8%
First Round68.9% 71.9% 49.3%
Second Round39.2% 41.3% 25.4%
Sweet Sixteen11.5% 12.2% 6.8%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.4% 2.6%
Final Four1.4% 1.5% 0.6%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: South Carolina (Home) - 86.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 11
Quad 23 - 310 - 13
Quad 31 - 111 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 3 Duke L 60 - 75 20% -5  0 - 1 +9 +2 D- A D +6 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 310 Lafayette W 97 - 60 98% +18  1 - 1 +25 +20 C+ A+ B- +5 B+ D+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 344 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99% +17  2 - 1 +20 +9 C+ B B +10 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 355 UMKC W 71 - 55 99% +11  3 - 1 -1 +0 F C A+ +1 A B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 352 Rider W 99 - 65 99% +18  4 - 1 +18 +12 A F A +3 C+ A D
 Mon, Nov 24 76 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 75% +2  4 - 2 +7 +9 A A+ F -3 C C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 21 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 43% +4  5 - 2 +21 +33 A+ A+ A+ -12 C D+ F+
 Wed, Dec 3 23 Virginia L 69 - 88 55% -16  5 - 3 -6 +6 C- A+ A+ -13 D+ B F+
 Mon, Dec 8 267 Southern W 95 - 69 98% +17  6 - 3 +17 +17 A- A+ C+ -1 D- A+ B
 Fri, Dec 12 7 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 19% -6  6 - 4 +16 +7 C- A B- +9 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 296 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 98% +18  7 - 4 +31 +12 B- A+ D- +17 A+ B D+
 Mon, Dec 22 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 99% +11  8 - 4 +9 +16 A+ D B+ -7 D C- D
 Sat, Jan 3 72 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 82% -1  8 - 5 0 - 1 +2 +14 B+ A+ B- -11 C F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 19 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 28% -11  8 - 6 0 - 2 +7 +12 C+ A+ F -6 D- C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 16 @Alabama W 92 - 88 27% +5  9 - 6 1 - 2 +25 +24 A- A+ A+ +1 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 13 Vanderbilt W 80 - 64 46% +6  10 - 6 2 - 2 +32 +18 A+ A+ D +14 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 27 Texas A&M L 70 - 74 58% -3  10 - 7 2 - 3 +9 +12 C D A+ -4 C+ B F
 Wed, Jan 21 26 @Kentucky L 80 - 85 34% -3  10 - 8 2 - 4 +14 +17 C A+ A+ -4 B A- D
 Sat, Jan 24 34 Georgia W 87 - 67 64% +3  11 - 8 3 - 4 +31 +24 A+ A+ C+ +8 A B- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 28 @Auburn L 82 - 88 36% +3  11 - 9 3 - 5 +12 +24 A+ B- B- -12 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 55 @Oklahoma W 79 - 69 58% -4  12 - 9 4 - 5 +23 +14 A+ B- F +9 A+ C C
 Tue, Feb 3 93 South Carolina W 82 - 70 87%
 Sat, Feb 7 59 Mississippi W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 54 @Missouri W 80 - 78 56%
 Tue, Feb 17 50 LSU W 82 - 76 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 34 @Georgia L 85 - 87 41%
 Wed, Feb 25 6 Florida L 78 - 81 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 27 @Texas A&M L 81 - 85 36%
 Wed, Mar 4 22 @Arkansas L 82 - 87 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 55 Oklahoma W 84 - 76 77%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 +15 +11 B+ A B +3 B- A- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.7 0.2 2.4 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 1.6 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 5.3 0.5 6.8 5th
6th 0.3 5.4 4.1 0.1 9.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.9 8.8 1.3 13.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 9.3 5.9 0.1 16.5 8th
9th 0.3 5.4 9.8 1.2 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 2.2 7.9 3.4 0.1 13.6 10th
11th 0.5 4.5 3.9 0.4 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 1.5 2.2 0.4 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.4 3.1 9.5 18.9 26.2 22.6 13.9 4.6 0.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 34.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.8% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 4.6% 99.7% 9.9% 89.8% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-7 13.9% 99.3% 5.3% 94.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 3.1 4.8 3.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
10-8 22.6% 96.2% 3.2% 93.0% 8.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.8 7.3 5.1 2.1 0.2 0.9 96.1%
9-9 26.2% 84.1% 2.0% 82.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.3 5.3 7.4 4.3 0.0 4.2 83.8%
8-10 18.9% 50.0% 1.6% 48.4% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 5.7 0.2 0.0 9.4 49.2%
7-11 9.5% 12.8% 0.9% 11.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.1 8.3 11.9%
6-12 3.1% 2.2% 0.5% 1.7% 10.9 0.0 0.1 3.1 1.8%
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 73.7% 3.0% 70.7% 8.4 26.3 72.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.7 7.1 28.6 53.6 10.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 3.6 9.1 36.4 40.9 13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 4.7 8.6 31.0 41.4 17.2 1.7