Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#41
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#75
Pace70.0#169
Improvement+0.5#145

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#31
First Shot+3.9#80
After Offensive Rebound+4.3#9
Layup/Dunks+3.0#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#296
Freethrows+5.0#5
Improvement+0.0#170

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#69
First Shot+1.2#131
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#22
Layups/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#50
Freethrows-2.9#338
Improvement+0.5#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 2.0% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 8.2% 9.5% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.2% 47.2% 28.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.2% 46.2% 28.2%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 8.7
.500 or above 69.7% 75.0% 50.8%
.500 or above in Conference 46.3% 51.6% 27.4%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.2% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 2.4% 11.3%
First Four7.3% 7.5% 6.3%
First Round40.0% 43.9% 26.1%
Second Round21.8% 24.2% 13.2%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 6.7% 3.2%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.2% 0.9%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 78.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 11
Quad 23 - 38 - 14
Quad 32 - 010 - 15
Quad 47 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 4 Duke L 60-75 18%     0 - 1 +6.9 +1.3 +4.8
  Sat, Nov 8 321 Lafayette W 97-60 98%     1 - 1 +24.5 +19.6 +5.5
  Wed, Nov 12 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93-58 99%     2 - 1 +17.5 +6.3 +9.7
  Sat, Nov 15 343 UMKC W 71-55 99%     3 - 1 +1.3 +2.1 +1.0
  Tue, Nov 18 344 Rider W 99-65 99%     4 - 1 +19.2 +16.0 +1.0
  Mon, Nov 24 71 Arizona St. L 86-87 67%     4 - 2 +6.8 +9.6 -2.7
  Wed, Nov 26 28 North Carolina St. W 102-97 40%     5 - 2 +19.8 +32.1 -12.4
  Wed, Dec 3 26 Virginia L 69-88 50%     5 - 3 -6.9 +4.2 -12.5
  Mon, Dec 8 222 Southern W 95-69 95%     6 - 3 +19.2 +17.8 +0.8
  Fri, Dec 12 7 @Connecticut L 63-71 13%     6 - 4 +16.4 +6.9 +9.1
  Tue, Dec 16 312 Le Moyne W 95-53 98%     7 - 4 +30.2 +7.8 +20.1
  Mon, Dec 22 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94-71 99%     8 - 4 +8.0 +14.5 -6.6
  Sat, Jan 3 80 Mississippi St. W 81-73 78%    
  Tue, Jan 6 14 @Tennessee L 70-78 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 15 @Alabama L 84-92 22%    
  Wed, Jan 14 9 Vanderbilt L 78-83 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 43 Texas A&M W 84-81 62%    
  Wed, Jan 21 20 @Kentucky L 74-81 25%    
  Sat, Jan 24 22 Georgia L 85-86 47%    
  Wed, Jan 28 34 @Auburn L 77-81 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 45 @Oklahoma L 78-80 42%    
  Tue, Feb 3 90 South Carolina W 78-69 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 63 Mississippi W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 60 @Missouri W 80-79 51%    
  Tue, Feb 17 39 LSU W 80-77 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 22 @Georgia L 82-89 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 12 Florida L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Feb 28 43 @Texas A&M L 81-84 41%    
  Wed, Mar 4 23 @Arkansas L 79-85 29%    
  Sat, Mar 7 45 Oklahoma W 81-77 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 1.8 0.3 5.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.3 1.6 0.1 7.2 6th
7th 0.4 3.7 3.7 0.3 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 5.3 1.2 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 5.1 3.4 0.1 9.4 9th
10th 0.2 3.3 5.1 0.8 0.0 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.6 2.2 0.1 9.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.9 3.3 0.3 0.0 8.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.5 0.9 0.0 7.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 1.2 0.1 5.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.0 7.0 10.7 14.0 15.4 14.6 12.1 8.9 5.5 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 89.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 70.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 47.5% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.0% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.6% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.4% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.0% 99.9% 8.7% 91.2% 5.8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 5.5% 99.0% 6.8% 92.2% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-7 8.9% 95.8% 2.9% 92.9% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 2.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.4 95.7%
10-8 12.1% 87.2% 2.1% 85.1% 8.6 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.0 3.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 1.5 86.9%
9-9 14.6% 63.6% 1.3% 62.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 3.0 0.1 5.3 63.1%
8-10 15.4% 23.9% 0.6% 23.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.7 23.5%
7-11 14.0% 3.7% 0.4% 3.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.5 3.3%
6-12 10.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.2%
5-13 7.0% 7.0
4-14 4.0% 4.0
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 43.2% 1.8% 41.5% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.6 4.0 6.8 8.0 6.9 6.6 6.3 0.5 0.0 56.8 42.2%