Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.4 27
Expected Predictive Rating +13.6 40
Pace 68.1 197
Improvement +3.6 54

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 6 B+ A+ B A C+
Defense B- 75 B B+ D+ D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 128 A- 67% 25 +27.2 31
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 220 B+ 45% 31 +9.0 116
Three Pointers 40% 208 C 34% 182 +20.3 200
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 166 B+ +4.9 44
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.12 43
Second Chance A- 39.1% 12 A 1.23 11 A+ 0.48 4
Turnovers B 15.0% 69
Freethrows A 0.40 3 B 76% 54 A 0.30 3
Total Offense A +11.9 6

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 185 B 52% 51 +20.3 262
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 26 B+ 33% 23 +9.0 90
Three Pointers 34% 347 D+ 36% 252 +18.2 293
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 56 B- -2.8 70
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 57
Second Chance A- 24.2% 15 B- 0.96 78 B+ 0.23 24
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 282
Freethrows D+ 0.34 291 C+ 71% 128 D+ 0.24 267
Total Defense B- +3.5 75

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.0 131 18.0 296
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 20 0.12 30
Improvement +2.1 #78 +1.5 #101

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 2% 2% 0%
Top 6 Seed 17% 20% 7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89% 92% 76%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88% 91% 76%
Average Seed 7.9 7.8 8.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 98%
.500 or above in Conference 91% 96% 71%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four7% 6% 11%
First Round86% 90% 71%
Second Round50% 53% 40%
Sweet Sixteen15% 16% 10%
Elite Eight5% 6% 3%
Final Four2% 2% 1%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: LSU (Home) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 9
Quad 23 - 310 - 12
Quad 32 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 3 Duke L 60 - 75 22% -5  22% 0 - 1 B +9 C +0 D- A F+ B+ +8 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 323 Lafayette W 97 - 60 99% +18  99% 1 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +18 C+ A+ B- B+ +6 B+ D- A
 Wed, Nov 12 331 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93 - 58 99% +17  87% 2 - 1 A +21 B +7 B B B+ A +12 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 360 UMKC W 71 - 55 100% +11  97% 3 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 F C A+ C+ +2 A B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 354 Rider W 99 - 65 99% +18  99% 4 - 1 A- +17 B+ +9 A F A+ B +6 B- A- D+
 Mon, Nov 24 67 Arizona St. L 86 - 87 76% +2  77% 4 - 2 B- +7 B+ +8 A A+ F C -0 C- B C-
 Wed, Nov 26 29 North Carolina St. W 102 - 97 51% +4  81% 5 - 2 A +20 A+ +29 A+ A+ A+ F+ -9 C D F+
 Wed, Dec 3 23 Virginia L 69 - 88 57% -16  8% 5 - 3 D+ -5 B +6 C- A+ A+ F -13 D B- F
 Mon, Dec 8 265 Southern W 95 - 69 98% +17  94% 6 - 3 A- +17 A +14 A- A+ C+ B- +3 D A+ B+
 Fri, Dec 12 9 @Connecticut L 63 - 71 22% -6  5% 6 - 4 A- +15 C+ +3 D+ A B- A +12 D+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 299 Le Moyne W 95 - 53 98% +18  99% 7 - 4 A+ +31 A- +10 B A+ D- A+ +19 A+ B D
 Mon, Dec 22 350 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94 - 71 99% +11  100% 8 - 4 B- +7 A +13 A+ D+ B+ D -6 D D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 75 Mississippi St. L 98 - 101 OT 84% -1  24% 8 - 5 0 - 1 C+ +2 A +11 B+ A+ B- D- -9 C+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 19 @Tennessee L 71 - 85 30% -11  4% 8 - 6 0 - 2 B- +7 A- +10 C+ A+ F C- -3 D- C B-
 Sat, Jan 10 18 @Alabama W 92 - 88 29% +5  86% 9 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +21 A- A+ A B- +4 B A D
 Wed, Jan 14 12 Vanderbilt W 80 - 64 47% +6  88% 10 - 6 2 - 2 A+ +32 A+ +16 A+ A D- A+ +17 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 34 Texas A&M L 70 - 74 65% -3  28% 10 - 7 2 - 3 B- +7 B+ +8 C D A+ C -1 C+ B- F
 Wed, Jan 21 24 @Kentucky L 80 - 85 35% -3  18% 10 - 8 2 - 4 B+ +14 A+ +15 C A+ A+ C -0 B A D-
 Sat, Jan 24 39 Georgia W 87 - 67 68% +3  46% 11 - 8 3 - 4 A+ +31 A+ +20 A+ A+ B- A +11 A B A
 Wed, Jan 28 30 @Auburn L 82 - 88 40% +3  66% 11 - 9 3 - 5 B+ +12 A+ +20 A+ B- B- D- -9 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 51 @Oklahoma W 79 - 69 56% -4  16% 12 - 9 4 - 5 A+ +24 A- +10 A+ B- F A+ +14 A+ C+ C
 Tue, Feb 3 94 South Carolina W 84 - 75 88% +1  53% 13 - 9 5 - 5 B+ +11 A +12 C- A+ C C -1 B- B C
 Sat, Feb 7 72 Mississippi W 79 - 68 84% +6  76% 14 - 9 6 - 5 A- +16 A +14 B- A+ B B- +3 B+ B+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 53 @Missouri W 85 - 68 58% +3  59% 15 - 9 7 - 5 A+ +30 A+ +22 A A+ A+ A +10 A+ D+ F+
 Tue, Feb 17 56 LSU W 84 - 75 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 39 @Georgia L 86 - 87 46%
 Wed, Feb 25 4 Florida L 78 - 83 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 34 @Texas A&M L 82 - 84 43%
 Wed, Mar 4 17 @Arkansas L 82 - 88 29%
 Sat, Mar 7 51 Oklahoma W 85 - 78 75%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +15 F +12 A+ B+ C+ B +4 C B A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A- B+ C B+ 40% 34% 40% C+ B+ A- A A+ B A B A B- B B+ D+ B- 39% 27% 34% B B A- B- B+ D+ D+ C+ D+
1.26 67% 45% 34% +5 0 1.12 39% 1.2 .48 15% .40 76% .30 1.04 52% 33% 36% -3 -1 0.95 24% 1.0 .23 15% .34 71% .28
Nov
4		 Duke C F F B F+ 40% 29% 31% C+ D- A+ C+ A F+ A+ B A+ B+ B A+ F A 46% 13% 41% B- A A A+ A+ C- F C- F
0.90 33% 23% 36% -13 -1 0.73 41% 0.8 .32 24% .45 74% .34 1.13 57% 0% 42% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.7 .24 15% .53 73% .39
Nov
8		 Lafayette A+ B B+ C- C+ 38% 21% 40% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ B+ A C B B 38% 26% 36% A- B+ C- F D- A D+ B C-
1.41 65% 45% 33% +4 0 1.10 52% 1.7 .87 13% .48 76% .37 0.87 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 22% .32 65% .20
Nov
12		 Fairleigh Dickinson B A+ A+ F B- 50% 10% 40% A B A D+ B B+ A+ F B+ A A+ C- B- A- 41% 17% 41% D B+ A+ A+ A+ F A- A A
1.27 81% 60% 24% +7 +2 1.21 39% 0.9 .34 12% .53 56% .30 0.79 38% 40% 29% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.3 .06 12% .20 62% .12
Nov
15		 UMKC D+ C F F F 47% 12% 41% B F A- D- C A+ A+ F A+ C+ B D+ A+ B+ 29% 48% 23% A+ A B B- B- F A+ F A
1.13 61% 17% 15% -13 +2 0.80 44% 0.8 .37 8% .48 61% .29 0.87 50% 41% 8% -10 -4 0.73 24% 0.8 .20 10% .14 75% .11
Nov
18		 Rider B+ A+ A+ C+ A 39% 9% 53% C A F C- F A+ A+ D+ A+ B A+ B- D+ C 25% 43% 32% A+ B- A+ C+ A- D+ C- F F
1.32 82% 60% 37% +13 +2 1.32 18% 1.0 .18 8% .49 65% .32 0.87 36% 33% 33% -8 -4 0.79 21% 0.9 .19 16% .29 89% .25
Nov
24		 Arizona St. B+ A+ F F A- 57% 11% 33% A+ A A A+ A+ F A+ C A+ C C- A+ F D+ 39% 24% 37% B- C- A+ F B C- F D+ F
1.15 81% 0% 27% +5 +3 1.17 41% 1.5 .63 25% .48 74% .36 1.16 61% 9% 53% +5 0 1.11 21% 1.7 .34 15% .56 78% .44
Nov
26		 North Carolina St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 26% 11% 64% C A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ F+ A+ F C- 44% 25% 31% B+ C A- F D F+ F B+ F+
1.42 67% 60% 47% +17 0 1.36 23% 2.0 .46 10% .51 85% .43 1.35 71% 21% 47% +7 0 1.16 24% 1.8 .42 8% .42 71% .30
Dec
3		 Virginia B C+ F F D+ 44% 22% 34% A- C- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ F D+ A+ F D- 40% 15% 46% C D A+ F B- F F B- F
1.06 55% 27% 24% -9 0 0.84 33% 1.2 .40 11% .43 68% .29 1.35 63% 29% 45% +9 +1 1.21 24% 1.7 .41 11% .50 69% .34
Dec
8		 Southern A B+ B A+ A- 42% 16% 42% B A- B A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ B- C B F D- 46% 32% 22% C- D C A+ A+ B+ F B+ F+
1.33 67% 43% 44% +11 +1 1.26 38% 1.6 .58 18% .55 91% .50 0.96 57% 31% 45% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.3 .08 20% .43 64% .28
Dec
12		 Connecticut C+ F C D- D+ 44% 31% 24% D+ D+ A+ B A B- A+ D+ A+ A F C- D D 43% 28% 28% A D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+
0.95 40% 36% 27% -11 -1 0.78 37% 1.0 .37 18% .52 68% .35 1.07 75% 46% 38% +12 -1 1.24 28% 1.0 .28 23% .25 54% .14
Dec
16		 Le Moyne A- C+ A+ D- B- 41% 6% 54% A- B A+ B A+ D- B+ C B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 29% 38% 33% A+ A+ B- B B D D D+ D-
1.29 59% 100% 31% +2 +2 1.09 49% 1.2 .57 18% .38 74% .28 0.72 40% 30% 12% -19 -3 0.58 22% 0.9 .20 18% .38 74% .28
Dec
22		 Maryland Eastern Shore A A A+ B A+ 43% 17% 40% C+ A+ A F D+ B+ A+ C A+ D C+ C- D D 50% 21% 29% F+ D A F D+ D- F C+ F
1.33 70% 63% 37% +11 +1 1.26 41% 0.8 .31 13% .68 74% .50 1.01 54% 40% 36% -1 +1 1.02 22% 1.3 .28 20% .37 71% .27
Jan
3		 Mississippi St. A A+ B+ F A- 28% 32% 40% C- B+ B A+ A+ B- A+ C- A+ D- C- A- C- C+ 32% 20% 48% C C+ F D F D+ F D- F
1.19 81% 44% 22% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.4 .43 12% .55 73% .40 1.23 63% 33% 34% +1 0 1.03 41% 1.1 .46 13% .43 74% .32
Jan
6		 Tennessee A- F A+ B- C 34% 14% 52% B C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ F D- 50% 18% 32% D D- D+ B- C B- F C- F
1.06 33% 50% 35% -6 +1 0.91 41% 1.4 .57 24% .39 80% .31 1.27 73% 25% 43% +9 +1 1.23 48% 1.0 .48 19% .54 72% .39
Jan
10		 Alabama A+ D+ F+ A+ A 31% 27% 42% C- A- A+ A A+ A A+ C+ A+ B- A+ A+ F B- 41% 17% 43% B- B B A+ A D F A- D
1.29 50% 29% 45% +2 -1 1.04 42% 1.1 .47 10% .50 69% .34 1.23 45% 33% 48% +3 +1 1.09 30% 0.9 .28 10% .42 70% .29
Jan
14		 Vanderbilt A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 24% 38% C+ A+ A+ C- A D- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A F A 27% 33% 40% A+ A+ A A+ A+ B A- B+ A
1.21 63% 60% 44% +13 0 1.26 44% 0.9 .40 23% .43 86% .37 0.97 43% 29% 43% -1 -2 0.94 24% 0.4 .10 15% .27 73% .20
Jan
17		 Texas A&M B+ B+ C D- C+ 30% 28% 43% D C C+ F D A+ A+ B+ A+ C B F D- B- 55% 6% 38% D- C+ A+ F B- F C- A+ B
1.13 64% 38% 30% -1 -2 0.98 31% 0.6 .20 13% .48 77% .37 1.19 54% 67% 39% +2 +3 1.13 19% 1.5 .28 10% .34 63% .21
Jan
21		 Kentucky A+ A+ B F C 41% 31% 28% C C A A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C C F B C+ 27% 40% 33% A+ B D+ A+ A D- F F F
1.16 73% 41% 7% -4 -1 0.91 36% 1.2 .44 12% .33 90% .29 1.23 62% 47% 31% +3 -3 1.02 38% 0.8 .32 12% .57 86% .49
Jan
24		 Georgia A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 33% 35% 31% F A+ A+ A+ A+ B- D+ A- C A C- A+ B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B- A B B- B A F A F
1.32 82% 56% 31% +13 -2 1.24 44% 1.4 .60 18% .22 75% .17 1.02 63% 13% 29% -5 +1 0.93 34% 1.0 .34 20% .47 68% .32
Jan
28		 Auburn A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 16% 53% C+ A+ C+ B B- B- A+ B+ A+ D- B F F F 39% 12% 49% C- F A+ B- A+ F F C+ F
1.29 57% 71% 46% +14 0 1.31 29% 1.1 .33 17% .44 78% .34 1.38 56% 60% 50% +14 +1 1.32 24% 1.0 .24 5% .64 74% .48
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Oklahoma A- A+ A+ B- A+ 37% 22% 41% B- A+ F+ A+ B- F C C C A+ A+ F+ A A+ 25% 27% 48% A+ A+ A F C+ C B A+ A-
1.18 82% 60% 37% +16 0 1.33 22% 1.6 .35 21% .28 73% .21 1.03 38% 50% 28% -6 -2 0.87 27% 1.6 .43 13% .28 63% .17
Feb
3		 South Carolina A C+ F C C 32% 30% 38% D C- A+ A A+ C A+ A+ A+ C F A+ A+ B- 51% 29% 20% C+ B- A D- B C F C+ F+
1.23 60% 29% 33% -3 -2 0.94 47% 1.2 .56 16% .63 81% .51 1.10 80% 21% 10% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.2 .24 15% .41 79% .33
Feb
7		 Mississippi A C A+ F B 34% 39% 27% F+ B- B A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B- B+ F A+ B+ 17% 38% 44% A- B+ A- B B+ D- C+ C- C
1.24 53% 53% 25% +1 -3 0.98 33% 2.2 .74 16% .43 87% .37 1.07 56% 50% 26% -1 -4 0.92 25% 1.0 .25 9% .30 76% .23
Feb
14		 Missouri A+ A+ F+ B A 35% 33% 31% D+ A A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ C+ A+ 55% 23% 23% C A+ A+ F D+ F+ F C- F
1.32 83% 29% 38% +8 -2 1.14 44% 1.0 .44 11% .40 91% .37 1.05 45% 22% 33% -11 +1 0.83 27% 1.8 .47 14% .68 68% .47



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.4 0.8 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 0.7 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 3.1 4.0 0.0 7.2 4th
5th 1.2 9.6 1.8 12.5 5th
6th 0.2 7.6 9.0 0.2 16.9 6th
7th 0.0 3.2 15.1 2.4 20.7 7th
8th 0.9 10.0 8.0 0.1 19.0 8th
9th 0.0 2.7 7.8 0.8 11.3 9th
10th 0.3 3.1 1.7 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.7 1.3 0.1 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 1.2 8.0 23.0 32.5 24.4 9.2 1.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 1.6% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.2% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
11-7 24.4% 99.3% 4.1% 95.2% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.1 9.4 5.9 1.6 0.2 0.2 99.3%
10-8 32.5% 95.3% 2.0% 93.3% 8.1 0.1 0.4 2.0 6.5 10.5 7.7 3.3 0.5 0.0 1.5 95.2%
9-9 23.0% 81.4% 1.7% 79.7% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.5 6.3 4.4 0.0 4.3 81.1%
8-10 8.0% 44.1% 1.2% 42.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.3 0.1 4.5 43.4%
7-11 1.2% 15.3% 15.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 15.3%
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.6% 3.0% 85.6% 7.9 11.5 88.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 4.5 4.5 9.1 27.3 50.0 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 4.9 8.1 25.8 38.7 25.8 1.6
Lose Out 0.5%