Texas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.3 #43
Expected Predictive Rating +7.8 #80
Pace 70.1 #165
Improvement +0.5 #152

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #33 B- A+ A+ B+ B-
Defense #72 B D A D- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #88 1.31 #47 +5.4 #35
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #226 0.85 #85 +0.0 #180
Three Pointers 40% #215 0.94 #260 -2.2 #255
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #95 +3.2 #95
Freethrows 23.8 #4 73% #168 17.3 #6
Second Chance 38.4% #23 1.19 #43 0.46 #18
Turnovers 14.1% #42
Total Offense +8.3 #33

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #173 1.07 #78 +1.4 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #16 0.66 #73 -2.0 #311
Three Pointers 32% #360 1.07 #250 +4.0 #46
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #90 +3.4 #89
Freethrows 19.2 #277 74% #248 14.2 #289
Second Chance 23.6% #13 0.93 #70 0.22 #20
Turnovers 14.3% #311
Total Defense +4.0 #72

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #109 -2.2% #36
Shot Type Make % Effect 5.1% #107 -4.5% #109
Possession Length 16.3 #97 18.3 #327
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.29 #11 0.11 #30
Improvement +0.2 #168 +0.3 #159

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 7.3% 8.5% 3.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.8% 46.0% 28.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.9% 45.0% 28.1%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 8.7
.500 or above 67.5% 73.2% 49.6%
.500 or above in Conference 44.3% 50.2% 26.1%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 3.2% 11.2%
First Four7.3% 7.3% 7.3%
First Round38.4% 42.6% 25.2%
Second Round21.2% 23.6% 13.5%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 6.6% 3.6%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.2% 1.2%
Final Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 11
Quad 23 - 38 - 14
Quad 32 - 010 - 15
Quad 47 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 7 Duke L 60-75 20%     -5.1   0 - 1 +6.0 +0.4 +4.8
  Sat, Nov 8 321 Lafayette W 97-60 98%     18.4   1 - 1 +24.3 +19.4 +5.5
  Wed, Nov 12 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 93-58 99%     16.7   2 - 1 +17.7 +7.0 +9.2
  Sat, Nov 15 344 UMKC W 71-55 99%     11.0   3 - 1 +1.0 +1.7 +1.0
  Tue, Nov 18 348 Rider W 99-65 99%     17.9   4 - 1 +18.4 +15.2 +1.1
  Mon, Nov 24 70 Arizona St. L 86-87 66%     2.2   4 - 2 +7.0 +10.0 -2.9
  Wed, Nov 26 25 North Carolina St. W 102-97 38%     4.1   5 - 2 +20.3 +33.2 -13.0
  Wed, Dec 3 32 Virginia L 69-88 55%     -5.9   5 - 3 -7.9 +4.7 -14.0
  Mon, Dec 8 240 Southern W 95-69 96%     16.8   6 - 3 +18.3 +17.2 +0.6
  Fri, Dec 12 5 @Connecticut L 63-71 12%     -6.4   6 - 4 +17.2 +7.2 +9.5
  Tue, Dec 16 309 Le Moyne W 95-53 98%     18.4   7 - 4 +30.3 +8.7 +19.3
  Mon, Dec 22 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 94-71 99%     11.1   8 - 4 +7.8 +14.5 -6.8
  Sat, Jan 3 73 Mississippi St. W 81-74 76%    
  Tue, Jan 6 15 @Tennessee L 70-79 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 14 @Alabama L 83-92 20%    
  Wed, Jan 14 9 Vanderbilt L 78-83 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 44 Texas A&M W 85-82 61%    
  Wed, Jan 21 20 @Kentucky L 75-82 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 21 Georgia L 85-86 47%    
  Wed, Jan 28 30 @Auburn L 77-82 32%    
  Sat, Jan 31 46 @Oklahoma L 78-80 42%    
  Tue, Feb 3 84 South Carolina W 78-70 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 59 Mississippi W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 63 @Missouri W 80-79 52%    
  Tue, Feb 17 39 LSU W 80-78 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 21 @Georgia L 82-89 27%    
  Wed, Feb 25 13 Florida L 77-80 39%    
  Sat, Feb 28 44 @Texas A&M L 82-85 40%    
  Wed, Mar 4 24 @Arkansas L 79-85 28%    
  Sat, Mar 7 46 Oklahoma W 81-77 64%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.8 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.0 0.2 5.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 3.0 0.5 6.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.3 1.5 0.1 7.0 6th
7th 0.4 4.0 3.6 0.3 8.2 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 5.2 1.2 0.0 8.5 8th
9th 0.7 5.0 2.9 0.2 8.8 9th
10th 0.2 3.5 5.3 0.7 0.0 9.7 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 5.0 2.3 0.1 9.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.1 3.6 0.4 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.6 0.9 0.0 7.6 13th
14th 0.2 1.6 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.2 14th
15th 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.2 0.1 4.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.2 2.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 4.4 8.0 11.1 13.9 15.4 14.2 12.0 8.1 5.4 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 78.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 46.2% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.5% 100.0% 15.4% 84.6% 4.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 100.0%
14-4 1.3% 100.0% 12.3% 87.7% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.8% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 6.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-6 5.4% 99.3% 5.0% 94.2% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.2%
11-7 8.1% 97.1% 2.7% 94.4% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.2 97.1%
10-8 12.0% 89.1% 1.7% 87.4% 8.7 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.7 3.1 2.4 0.6 1.3 88.9%
9-9 14.2% 61.8% 1.1% 60.7% 9.8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.9 2.8 0.1 5.4 61.4%
8-10 15.4% 24.2% 0.8% 23.4% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.5 0.2 11.7 23.6%
7-11 13.9% 4.5% 0.2% 4.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 13.3 4.3%
6-12 11.1% 0.5% 0.5% 11.2 0.1 0.0 11.0 0.5%
5-13 8.0% 8.0
4-14 4.4% 4.4
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 41.8% 1.5% 40.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.8 6.6 8.1 6.7 6.4 6.3 0.3 58.2 40.9%