Preseason Rankings
Texas
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#36
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.2#178
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.3% 3.7% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 8.9% 2.2%
Top 4 Seed 12.0% 24.0% 8.9%
Top 6 Seed 23.4% 40.6% 18.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.0% 72.3% 46.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 50.5% 70.7% 45.3%
Average Seed 6.7 6.0 7.0
.500 or above 76.7% 91.7% 72.8%
.500 or above in Conference 51.8% 65.8% 48.1%
Conference Champion 3.8% 7.0% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.4% 2.5% 7.4%
First Four5.6% 5.3% 5.7%
First Round49.2% 69.9% 43.8%
Second Round33.4% 51.0% 28.9%
Sweet Sixteen14.2% 24.7% 11.4%
Elite Eight5.9% 11.6% 4.4%
Final Four2.6% 5.4% 1.9%
Championship Game1.1% 2.6% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 1.0% 0.2%

Next Game: Duke (Neutral) - 20.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 10
Quad 24 - 29 - 12
Quad 32 - 011 - 13
Quad 47 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 3   Duke L 66-75 21%    
  Nov 08, 2025 308   Lafayette W 81-56 99%    
  Nov 12, 2025 354   Fairleigh Dickinson W 88-59 99.6%   
  Nov 15, 2025 301   UMKC W 78-54 98%    
  Nov 18, 2025 313   Rider W 81-56 99%    
  Nov 24, 2025 68   Arizona St. W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 03, 2025 46   Virginia W 67-63 65%    
  Dec 08, 2025 186   Southern W 80-62 94%    
  Dec 12, 2025 4   @ Connecticut L 63-75 16%    
  Dec 16, 2025 347   Le Moyne W 89-61 99%    
  Dec 22, 2025 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 85-53 99.7%   
  Jan 03, 2026 33   Mississippi St. W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 06, 2026 16   @ Tennessee L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 10, 2026 18   @ Alabama L 79-85 30%    
  Jan 14, 2026 41   Vanderbilt W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 17, 2026 35   Texas A&M W 72-69 59%    
  Jan 21, 2026 7   @ Kentucky L 72-81 23%    
  Jan 24, 2026 51   Georgia W 74-68 68%    
  Jan 28, 2026 22   @ Auburn L 70-76 32%    
  Jan 31, 2026 47   @ Oklahoma L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 03, 2026 70   South Carolina W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 07, 2026 30   Mississippi W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 14, 2026 37   @ Missouri L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 17, 2026 52   LSU W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 21, 2026 51   @ Georgia L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 25, 2026 5   Florida L 73-78 34%    
  Feb 28, 2026 35   @ Texas A&M L 69-72 40%    
  Mar 04, 2026 17   @ Arkansas L 70-77 29%    
  Mar 07, 2026 47   Oklahoma W 76-71 66%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.8 0.7 0.1 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.4 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 3.8 1.1 0.1 7.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.1 1.9 0.2 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.2 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.5 0.4 7.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 3.9 1.4 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.2 0.2 6.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.8 0.5 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.0 0.1 4.7 15th
16th 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.6 16th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.9 4.8 7.1 9.2 10.4 11.5 11.6 10.9 9.6 7.4 5.4 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 86.9% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 59.1% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.7% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 25.5% 74.5% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 2.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.9% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 2.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.7% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 3.4 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.4% 99.6% 9.4% 90.2% 4.5 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 7.4% 98.8% 7.7% 91.1% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.7%
11-7 9.6% 95.3% 3.4% 91.9% 6.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.7 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.2%
10-8 10.9% 87.5% 1.9% 85.6% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 2.2 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.4 87.3%
9-9 11.6% 67.7% 1.4% 66.3% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.7 67.3%
8-10 11.5% 38.1% 0.7% 37.4% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.1 7.1 37.6%
7-11 10.4% 12.5% 0.2% 12.3% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.0 9.1 12.3%
6-12 9.2% 2.1% 0.0% 2.1% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.0 2.1%
5-13 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.3%
4-14 4.8% 4.8
3-15 2.9% 2.9
2-16 1.5% 1.5
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 52.0% 3.1% 48.9% 6.7 1.3 2.3 3.7 4.7 5.3 6.1 7.1 6.4 5.7 5.7 3.5 0.2 48.0 50.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0