Texas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.6#34
Expected Predictive Rating+14.9#32
Pace68.0#210
Improvement-0.8#234

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#55
First Shot+7.1#27
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#284
Layup/Dunks+2.6#94
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#67
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#139
Freethrows+1.1#116
Improvement-0.9#247

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#16
First Shot+6.4#21
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#118
Layups/Dunks+5.8#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#276
Freethrows+2.7#38
Improvement+0.0#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.2% 1.7% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 3.6% 5.3% 1.9%
Top 4 Seed 14.7% 19.9% 9.4%
Top 6 Seed 31.3% 39.3% 23.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.0% 75.9% 59.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.3% 75.2% 59.3%
Average Seed 6.8 6.4 7.2
.500 or above 92.8% 97.0% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 47.4% 52.8% 41.9%
Conference Champion 2.7% 3.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.7% 5.2% 8.3%
First Four5.9% 5.4% 6.4%
First Round65.2% 73.2% 56.9%
Second Round41.5% 48.9% 33.9%
Sweet Sixteen17.9% 22.4% 13.4%
Elite Eight7.6% 9.6% 5.5%
Final Four3.0% 4.1% 1.9%
Championship Game1.1% 1.6% 0.7%
National Champion0.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 50.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 37 - 10
Quad 25 - 211 - 12
Quad 31 - 013 - 12
Quad 48 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 29   Ohio St. L 72-80 49%     0 - 1 +5.0 +4.3 +0.8
  Nov 08, 2024 351   Houston Christian W 90-59 99%     1 - 1 +15.4 +11.1 +5.5
  Nov 12, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 105-58 99%     2 - 1 +29.7 +15.5 +9.7
  Nov 16, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 89-43 99.7%    3 - 1 +21.8 +14.9 +11.1
  Nov 21, 2024 96   Syracuse W 70-66 75%     4 - 1 +9.6 +0.8 +9.0
  Nov 22, 2024 101   Saint Joseph's W 67-58 77%     5 - 1 +13.9 -0.5 +14.7
  Nov 29, 2024 348   Delaware St. W 90-68 99%     6 - 1 +6.7 +5.2 +0.1
  Dec 04, 2024 72   @ North Carolina St. W 63-59 57%     7 - 1 +14.8 +7.4 +8.2
  Dec 08, 2024 11   Connecticut W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 12, 2024 218   New Mexico St. W 78-59 96%    
  Dec 15, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94-61 99.9%   
  Dec 19, 2024 344   New Orleans W 88-60 99.6%   
  Dec 29, 2024 297   Northwestern St. W 80-57 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 30   @ Texas A&M L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 07, 2025 3   Auburn L 73-78 33%    
  Jan 11, 2025 4   Tennessee L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 15, 2025 41   @ Oklahoma L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 18, 2025 10   @ Florida L 72-80 24%    
  Jan 21, 2025 63   Missouri W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 25, 2025 30   Texas A&M W 70-67 59%    
  Jan 29, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 01, 2025 47   @ LSU L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 05, 2025 33   Arkansas W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 67   @ Vanderbilt W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 11, 2025 5   Alabama L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 9   Kentucky L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 22, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 26, 2025 33   @ Arkansas L 71-74 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 38   Georgia W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 15   @ Mississippi St. L 70-76 31%    
  Mar 08, 2025 41   Oklahoma W 73-69 65%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 3.5 0.7 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.3 1.6 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.6 3.8 2.9 0.3 7.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 4.6 0.9 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.9 2.3 0.1 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.3 4.3 0.5 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.7 4.6 1.5 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.7 2.8 0.2 7.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.4 0.6 0.0 6.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.9 1.1 0.1 5.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.3 16th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.4 12.4 13.9 13.0 11.4 9.2 6.3 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 88.5% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 76.5% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 42.3% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 11.8% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.1% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 2.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.1% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 2.6 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.9% 100.0% 10.5% 89.5% 3.3 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 6.3% 99.9% 6.7% 93.2% 4.2 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 9.2% 99.9% 3.4% 96.5% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 2.6 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 11.4% 99.4% 1.7% 97.8% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.1 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 13.0% 97.1% 1.4% 95.8% 7.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.2 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.4 97.1%
8-10 13.9% 84.8% 0.5% 84.3% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.1 2.9 1.4 0.0 2.1 84.7%
7-11 12.4% 55.0% 0.3% 54.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 2.6 0.3 5.6 54.8%
6-12 10.4% 20.8% 0.2% 20.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.3 8.2 20.6%
5-13 7.4% 3.5% 0.0% 3.4% 11.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.1 3.4%
4-14 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 4.6
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 68.0% 2.2% 65.8% 6.8 1.2 2.5 4.9 6.3 7.7 8.8 8.9 8.1 7.0 6.4 5.6 0.7 32.0 67.3%