Kent St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#110
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#73
Pace61.8#341
Improvement+2.6#33

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#202
First Shot-4.2#295
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#41
Layup/Dunks-6.0#341
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#124
Freethrows+0.0#183
Improvement+1.5#73

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#63
First Shot+4.4#60
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#181
Layups/Dunks+3.3#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#148
Freethrows-2.7#327
Improvement+1.1#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.7% 30.9% 21.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 99.1% 99.2% 95.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.5% 96.6% 93.1%
Conference Champion 43.6% 43.9% 30.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.7% 30.9% 21.8%
Second Round4.6% 4.6% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.0% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercyhurst (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 36 - 36 - 6
Quad 415 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 262   @ Louisiana W 70-66 73%     1 - 0 +1.2 -3.3 +4.7
  Nov 13, 2024 3   @ Auburn L 56-79 4%     1 - 1 +0.4 -3.3 +1.3
  Nov 21, 2024 308   Niagara W 76-73 90%     2 - 1 -7.6 +3.3 -10.6
  Nov 23, 2024 259   @ Cleveland St. W 68-52 72%     3 - 1 +13.6 +1.5 +13.3
  Nov 28, 2024 147   Towson W 65-54 61%     4 - 1 +11.8 +5.7 +7.9
  Nov 29, 2024 57   UC Irvine L 39-51 28%     4 - 2 -2.4 -21.4 +17.5
  Nov 30, 2024 146   Kennesaw St. W 67-60 61%     5 - 2 +7.8 -4.7 +12.6
  Dec 06, 2024 309   Portland W 76-57 90%     6 - 2 +8.4 +4.8 +5.1
  Dec 15, 2024 361   Mercyhurst W 71-50 98%    
  Dec 22, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 65-83 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 270   Ball St. W 70-57 87%    
  Jan 07, 2025 338   @ Northern Illinois W 71-60 85%    
  Jan 11, 2025 331   @ Buffalo W 73-63 83%    
  Jan 14, 2025 271   Western Michigan W 73-60 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 198   Miami (OH) W 68-60 77%    
  Jan 21, 2025 203   @ Toledo W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 25, 2025 157   @ Ohio W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 28, 2025 267   Bowling Green W 73-60 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 131   Akron W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 04, 2025 299   @ Eastern Michigan W 67-59 76%    
  Feb 11, 2025 196   Central Michigan W 68-60 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 157   Ohio W 72-66 71%    
  Feb 18, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 198   @ Miami (OH) W 65-63 58%    
  Feb 25, 2025 203   Toledo W 74-66 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 131   @ Akron L 68-69 46%    
  Mar 04, 2025 271   @ Western Michigan W 70-63 72%    
  Mar 07, 2025 299   Eastern Michigan W 70-56 89%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.8 9.2 12.1 10.5 5.6 1.8 43.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.8 6.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.6 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.7 0.3 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.6 6.1 9.6 12.9 15.4 16.2 14.4 10.8 5.6 1.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 100.0% 5.6    5.5 0.1
16-2 96.6% 10.5    9.5 1.0 0.0
15-3 83.5% 12.1    8.8 3.1 0.2
14-4 56.9% 9.2    4.6 3.6 0.9 0.1
13-5 24.4% 3.8    0.9 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.6% 43.6 31.2 9.6 2.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 61.5% 60.5% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.7 2.6%
17-1 5.6% 54.8% 54.7% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 2.6 0.2%
16-2 10.8% 45.8% 45.8% 12.4 0.2 2.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.9
15-3 14.4% 39.1% 39.1% 12.7 0.0 2.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.8
14-4 16.2% 34.1% 34.1% 13.0 0.0 1.2 3.1 1.1 0.1 10.7
13-5 15.4% 28.5% 28.5% 13.3 0.5 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.0
12-6 12.9% 22.4% 22.4% 13.7 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 10.0
11-7 9.6% 17.3% 17.3% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 7.9
10-8 6.1% 13.8% 13.8% 14.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.3
9-9 3.6% 10.3% 10.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.2
8-10 1.9% 9.4% 9.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.7
7-11 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.0 0.0 1.0
6-12 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.7% 30.6% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 9.8 11.9 6.1 1.5 0.1 69.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.9 14.0 25.6 4.7 4.7 27.9 14.0 9.3