Louisiana
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 303
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 305
Pace 60.3 359
Improvement +5.3 18

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 314 D D- C F+ F
Defense C- 251 D C- C+ F+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% 363 D- 51% 333 -8.7 364
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 53 C 38% 173 +4.9 13
Three Pointers 40% 210 C 34% 190 -0.8 209
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.4 362 D+ -2.1 257
1st FG Attempt D 0.93 313
Second Chance D+ 26.4% 296 F+ 0.86 351 D- 0.23 343
Turnovers C 16.9% 181
Freethrows F 0.23 360 D+ 70% 254 F+ 0.16 359
Total Offense D -5.8 314

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F 31% 356 C 11.2% 194
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 14% 331 B 2.6% 33
Three Pointers B- 88% 109 B+ 0.1% 12
Total F+ 45% 351 B+ 3.9% 24

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 32 C- 59% 217 +4.2 317
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 313 B- 36% 104 -2.0 36
Three Pointers 39% 238 D- 38% 343 +1.6 268
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.0 342 D+ +2.7 283
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 299
Second Chance D+ 32.2% 257 C 1.04 202 C- 0.33 243
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 110
Freethrows F+ 0.38 351 C- 73% 248 F+ 0.28 351
Total Defense C- -2.5 251

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 134 C 11.6% 145
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 15% 12 C 4.8% 179
Three Pointers C- 85% 215 C+ 1.2% 108
Total C 55% 164 C+ 6.4% 119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.4 349 17.5 220
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 338 0.16 147
Improvement +6.3 #1 -1.0 #244

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 314 300 282
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 13 12 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 2% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 48 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 313 @Ball St. L 64 - 75 43% -2  10% 0 - 1 F+ -17 D- -6 D- D C F -12 F D- C+
 Fri, Nov 7 281 SE Louisiana W 58 - 52 57% +9  99% 1 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 A- F C- B +4 A- C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 163 Tulane L 62 - 66 31% -3  25% 1 - 2 D+ -7 F+ -9 F+ C A+ C+ +1 B- F+ C+
 Fri, Nov 14 83 @McNeese St. L 62 - 88 6% -18  0% 1 - 3 F+ -16 D -6 F C+ D+ F -12 F A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 18 75 @Stanford L 66 - 93 5% -12  10% 1 - 4 F+ -16 D -5 B- F+ C F -11 F+ B- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 42 @Santa Clara L 43 - 80 3% -20  0% 1 - 5 F -22 F -25 F F F C+ +1 A+ F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 179 @UC Davis L 56 - 77 17% -8  0% 1 - 6 F -19 F -14 F F D D- -7 F C- D
 Fri, Nov 28 332 Jackson St. L 45 - 51 72% -5  5% 1 - 7 F -20 F -33 F C F A+ +12 B+ B B
 Wed, Dec 3 207 @Lamar L 55 - 65 21% +2  53% 1 - 8 D -10 F -12 D C F C+ +1 C- B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 111 UNC Wilmington L 63 - 70 20% -3  10% 1 - 9 D+ -6 D- -6 D+ C- C C -1 C- B- B
 Sat, Dec 13 218 @Louisiana Tech L 44 - 65 22% -11  6% 1 - 10 F -21 F -21 F+ F F D+ -4 C- F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 245 @Southern Miss L 54 - 62 26% -2  27% 1 - 11 0 - 1 D -9 F -18 F F B A +9 A+ A- F
 Sat, Dec 20 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 76 - 62 61% +12  99% 2 - 11 1 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +2 B F A+ B- +2 B- F+ A
 Sun, Dec 28 306 Norfolk St. W 63 - 54 63% +9  99% 3 - 11 C- -3 D -5 C+ F A B +4 A B D
 Wed, Dec 31 188 South Alabama L 58 - 63 37% -2  13% 3 - 12 1 - 2 D -10 D -5 D- C B+ D -6 C- F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 245 Southern Miss L 67 - 74 47% -2  27% 3 - 13 1 - 3 F+ -14 F+ -8 D- A+ F+ D- -7 F B A+
 Thu, Jan 8 353 Louisiana Monroe W 85 - 79 80% +3  68% 4 - 13 2 - 3 D -11 C- -1 C- B+ F F -10 F C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 146 Troy L 70 - 90 28% -16  0% 4 - 14 2 - 4 F -22 C +0 A F B- F -24 F F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 225 @Texas St. L 54 - 59 23% -5  6% 4 - 15 2 - 5 D+ -6 F -12 F D- B- B+ +6 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 188 @South Alabama W 59 - 56 19% +1  62% 5 - 15 3 - 5 C+ +4 D+ -2 C- F+ A+ A- +7 B- F+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 174 @Appalachian St. L 58 - 72 17% -1  45% 5 - 16 3 - 6 D- -12 D -4 F C A- F -10 F C A+
 Thu, Jan 29 283 Georgia St. W 82 - 72 57% +10  94% 6 - 16 4 - 6 C -0 A- +10 A B- C- F -10 B+ D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 262 Georgia Southern W 69 - 60 52% +6  93% 7 - 16 5 - 6 C +0 D+ -3 B F+ B B +5 B- C A+
 Wed, Feb 4 210 @James Madison W 64 - 61 21% +1  56% 8 - 16 6 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 D+ C D+ C+ +1 D D C+
 Sat, Feb 7 274 Central Michigan W 85 - 80 55% -1  34% 9 - 16 C- -5 A +12 A+ D C- F -16 F F F+
 Thu, Feb 12 238 Coastal Carolina L 65 - 69 46% -5  0% 9 - 17 6 - 7 D -11 F -11 D- D- D C -0 D+ D A+
 Mon, Feb 16 239 @Old Dominion L 72 - 83 25% -2  20% 9 - 18 6 - 8 D- -12 C -0 D- C B F -13 F A F+
 Thu, Feb 19 140 Arkansas St. L 62 - 79 27% -1  42% 9 - 19 6 - 9 F -19 F -14 F F A+ D -6 F D+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 225 Texas St. L 65 - 67 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 146 @Troy L 61 - 73 13%
 Fri, Feb 27 140 @Arkansas St. L 66 - 78 12%
Totals 10 - 21 7 - 11 -8 D -6 F D+ F C- -2 C D+ F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- C C D+ 27% 50% 40% F D D+ F+ D- C F D+ F+ C- C- B- D- D+ 45% 16% 39% D- D D+ C C- C+ F+ C- F+
1.00 51% 38% 34% -2 -2 0.93 26% 0.9 .23 17% .23 70% .16 1.12 59% 36% 38% +3 +1 1.10 32% 1.0 .33 18% .38 73% .17
Nov
3		 Ball St. D- B- B+ F+ D+ 22% 31% 47% F D- F+ B D C F F F F D- A+ F F 58% 13% 30% F F D D- D- C+ F B- F
1.00 64% 44% 29% 0 -3 0.96 26% 1.1 .29 19% .17 56% .10 1.17 61% 0% 58% +8 +2 1.23 29% 1.0 .29 17% .53 68% .36
Nov
7		 SE Louisiana D- D+ A+ B+ A+ 22% 46% 32% F A- F F F C- F F F B B- A+ A+ A+ 41% 8% 51% F A- D B C C+ F A+ F
1.00 56% 63% 38% +13 -4 1.20 16% 0.5 .08 21% .26 58% .15 0.89 53% 0% 21% -15 +2 0.76 31% 0.8 .26 19% .66 58% .38
Nov
11		 Tulane F+ A- C- F D 13% 31% 56% F F+ D+ B C A+ B+ F D+ C+ F A+ A+ B+ 54% 17% 29% F+ B- B- F F+ C+ F C- F
0.97 67% 36% 28% -5 -3 0.87 31% 1.1 .33 13% .38 52% .20 1.03 73% 0% 17% -6 +2 0.93 19% 1.8 .35 16% .50 78% .39
Nov
14		 McNeese St. D F F F F 31% 26% 43% D- F B D C+ D+ A A+ A+ F D- F F F 44% 7% 49% F F B- A+ A+ B+ F C- F
0.93 46% 18% 22% -16 -1 0.67 41% 1.0 .41 25% .46 87% .40 1.32 67% 67% 50% +18 +2 1.41 32% 0.4 .12 16% .70 77% .54
Nov
18		 Stanford D C+ A F B- 48% 34% 18% C- B- F+ D F+ C D F F F F B C- F 29% 13% 58% A- F+ C B- B- D+ F F F
0.93 58% 47% 22% 0 -1 1.00 18% 1.0 .18 20% .30 59% .17 1.30 86% 33% 36% +9 0 1.21 34% 0.9 .31 14% .57 80% .46
Nov
21		 Santa Clara F F F F F 55% 26% 18% C- F D+ F F F A+ A A+ C+ D+ D- A+ A+ 50% 4% 46% F A+ F C F D- F A+ D+
0.65 33% 20% 14% -24 0 0.55 27% 0.6 .15 27% .52 80% .41 1.20 65% 50% 17% -8 +3 0.92 50% 1.1 .55 12% .33 63% .21
Nov
24		 UC Davis F B+ F D- F+ 12% 36% 52% F F C- F F D F C F D- F F+ F F 35% 23% 43% C+ F B+ F C- D F A- F
0.86 67% 28% 31% -5 -4 0.84 29% 0.6 .17 21% .21 73% .16 1.18 71% 44% 41% +11 0 1.23 22% 1.3 .30 15% .58 69% .40
Nov
28		 Jackson St. F F+ F F F 35% 14% 51% C F C+ C- C F C+ F F A+ B+ F+ A+ A- 38% 22% 40% D- B+ B B+ B B A+ D A+
0.73 53% 17% 14% -20 +1 0.63 37% 1.0 .37 26% .35 50% .17 0.82 47% 45% 20% -11 0 0.80 23% 0.9 .20 21% .10 80% .08
Dec
3		 Lamar F C F C+ D 27% 23% 50% D D D- A C F F A- F C+ A- F F+ B- 67% 22% 11% F C- C- A B+ D- F A+ F
0.90 58% 20% 36% -2 -1 0.95 24% 1.3 .31 28% .18 75% .14 1.06 43% 60% 40% -4 +2 0.98 35% 0.8 .26 13% .45 63% .28
Dec
6		 UNC Wilmington D- F+ C C D+ 27% 25% 48% C D+ D B C- C C- B- C- C B+ A+ F+ C+ 47% 12% 42% F C- C B B- B F C- F
0.99 50% 38% 32% -3 -1 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 14% .24 77% .18 1.10 50% 20% 39% -3 +2 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 17% .45 71% .32
Dec
13		 Louisiana Tech F F C- C D- 26% 26% 49% F+ F+ C+ F F F D+ F F D+ D+ A+ A- C 52% 12% 36% F C- F F F A+ F F F
0.73 27% 36% 33% -9 -2 0.81 34% 0.3 .11 27% .29 54% .16 1.08 59% 20% 27% -6 +2 0.95 43% 1.0 .43 25% .42 84% .35
Dec
18		 Southern Miss F F C+ F F 20% 49% 31% F F F F F B F A F A A+ B+ D+ A+ 26% 31% 43% B A+ A+ F A- F F A F
0.80 36% 41% 24% -8 -5 0.76 13% 0.4 .05 15% .22 77% .17 0.91 9% 31% 33% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 12% .65 67% .43
Dec
20		 Louisiana Monroe C+ B C- A+ A- 30% 30% 40% F B F F F A+ B+ F C B- A+ A F B- 36% 28% 36% B B- C+ F F+ A F F+ F
1.19 67% 40% 50% +13 -2 1.24 21% 0.7 .14 9% .31 56% .17 0.97 36% 27% 43% -6 -1 0.87 23% 1.4 .33 22% .67 79% .52
Dec
28		 Norfolk St. D D- A- A+ B 24% 24% 52% F C+ D- F F A F B- D- B A+ A+ D- A+ 41% 18% 41% F+ A C+ A- B D C+ D+ C
1.07 55% 45% 42% +7 -1 1.13 26% 0.4 .10 12% .29 73% .21 0.92 33% 13% 39% -12 0 0.80 30% 0.8 .24 17% .33 69% .23
Dec
31		 South Alabama D F B+ C- D+ 9% 20% 70% F D- C C- C B+ F D+ F+ D C- B C+ C- 41% 16% 43% C C- F A- F+ A+ F F F
1.04 25% 44% 32% -4 -2 0.91 32% 1.1 .35 14% .15 71% .10 1.13 60% 33% 31% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.0 .37 20% .45 85% .38
Jan
3		 Southern Miss F+ C+ C- C C- 21% 44% 35% F D- C+ A+ A+ F+ D- A- C- D- F B- A F 49% 22% 29% F F D- A+ B A+ F F F
0.99 60% 38% 35% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.8 .52 21% .30 75% .22 1.09 80% 33% 25% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 25% .59 83% .49
Jan
8		 Louisiana Monroe C- C- A+ C- C 28% 22% 50% F+ C- A+ D B+ F C+ F D F D+ A F F 58% 15% 27% F F A F C C- D- C- D-
1.19 60% 67% 33% +6 -1 1.13 49% 1.1 .51 21% .27 53% .14 1.11 57% 29% 54% +6 +2 1.19 15% 1.5 .23 17% .37 73% .27
Jan
10		 Troy C A+ B- A+ A+ 26% 23% 51% D A F F F B- D A- C- F B A+ F F 43% 15% 43% B- F F F F A- A A+ A+
1.10 75% 45% 42% +12 -1 1.23 20% 0.3 .07 16% .24 77% .19 1.41 50% 14% 55% +6 +1 1.17 58% 1.7 .97 20% .22 45% .10
Jan
14		 Texas St. F F F A F 37% 23% 40% D- F F A+ D- B- B D C+ B+ D+ F F F 60% 23% 16% F F B+ A+ A+ B A- A+ A+
0.89 44% 10% 41% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.2 .19 16% .37 68% .26 0.97 62% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.19 27% 0.3 .08 21% .21 60% .13
Jan
17		 South Alabama D+ D+ F C C- 14% 8% 78% D+ C- F A+ F+ A+ F F F A- B A+ F+ B- 48% 23% 30% C+ B- F C- F+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.03 57% 25% 33% -2 0 0.98 16% 1.6 .25 12% .08 50% .04 0.98 52% 20% 38% -5 0 0.93 31% 1.2 .38 14% .20 30% .06
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
22		 Appalachian St. D C+ D F F+ 24% 30% 46% F F F+ A+ C A- F A+ D- F C- F F F 25% 13% 63% C+ F F A+ C A+ C- B- C
0.98 58% 33% 22% -10 -2 0.78 22% 1.4 .30 10% .17 89% .15 1.22 60% 80% 48% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .31 22% .32 60% .19
Jan
29		 Georgia St. A- C+ A- A+ A+ 23% 45% 32% F A A- D+ B- C- A+ A+ A+ F A C+ A+ A- 33% 28% 40% C- B+ F B+ D+ F F F F
1.27 60% 45% 57% +15 -4 1.23 41% 0.9 .38 17% .39 81% .32 1.11 43% 33% 24% -12 -1 0.74 34% 0.9 .32 9% .60 94% .56
Jan
31		 Georgia Southern D+ D+ B+ A+ A- 39% 28% 33% F B F B F+ B F D F B A- A+ D+ B- 38% 21% 42% A- B- D+ B- C A+ B- F D
1.11 56% 46% 47% +8 -1 1.15 23% 1.2 .27 16% .27 71% .19 0.97 44% 30% 35% -6 0 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 23% .31 87% .27
Feb
4		 James Madison C+ C- F A C 23% 31% 46% F D+ A- F+ C D+ F A+ F C+ D- A+ C- D+ 50% 8% 43% F D F B- D C+ F A+ B
1.13 55% 20% 41% -2 -2 0.94 38% 0.9 .32 14% .18 89% .16 1.08 65% 0% 35% +1 +3 1.10 35% 1.0 .35 18% .41 42% .17
Feb
7		 Central Michigan A D A A+ A+ 28% 41% 30% F A+ A F D C- C+ A+ A- F B- F F F 34% 25% 41% C F B+ F F F+ F D+ F
1.33 54% 47% 64% +17 -3 1.28 45% 0.8 .34 17% .36 84% .30 1.25 53% 73% 44% +13 -1 1.27 24% 1.8 .43 14% .38 71% .27
Feb
12		 Coastal Carolina F B D- D- D+ 21% 44% 35% F D- D D- D- D A+ A A+ C A A- F D+ 37% 30% 33% C- D+ D D+ D A+ F F F
0.93 60% 33% 29% -4 -4 0.85 24% 0.9 .21 14% .42 80% .33 0.99 44% 31% 50% 0 -1 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 27% .45 87% .39
Feb
16		 Old Dominion C C D+ A- C 20% 55% 25% F D- B F+ C B A D+ B+ F F D+ F F 51% 28% 21% D- F A+ B- A F+ F F F
1.08 60% 32% 38% -1 -6 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 12% .43 72% .31 1.25 75% 38% 40% +11 0 1.23 16% 1.0 .16 12% .44 81% .36
Feb
19		 Arkansas St. F F A- F+ F 27% 37% 36% F F C F F A+ F C+ F D F F A+ F 50% 17% 33% D F F B D+ A+ F B- F
0.90 31% 45% 29% -7 -3 0.81 27% 0.4 .12 4% .17 73% .12 1.15 71% 86% 21% +8 +1 1.21 45% 0.9 .41 26% .55 71% .39



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.3 7th
8th 0.8 0.4 1.2 8th
9th 4.7 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 3.6 4.2 7.8 10th
11th 19.3 1.0 20.4 11th
12th 10.3 18.5 0.1 28.8 12th
13th 33.4 3.3 36.7 13th
14th 14th
Total 43.7 44.7 10.8 0.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
7-11 44.7% 44.7
6-12 43.7% 43.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 43.7%