Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.9 174
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 173
Pace 60.1 361
Improvement +6.6 7

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 227 D+ C B- D+ C+
Defense C+ 139 B- C+ D- B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 242 C 59% 151 -0.9 214
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 278 D+ 35% 260 -1.9 274
Three Pointers 47% 62 D- 30% 329 +0.1 174
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 141 D+ -3.0 288
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 268
Second Chance C 29.9% 195 C 1.04 156 C 0.31 177
Turnovers B- 15.7% 113
Freethrows C+ 0.32 150 F 63% 365 D+ 0.20 264
Total Offense C- -1.9 227

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 36% 338 B+ 7.5% 30
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 302 C- 6.3% 263
Three Pointers C 85% 179 C 1.0% 201
Total D 50% 302 B 4.2% 38

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 224 B 53% 62 -2.6 94
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 228 C 38% 170 -0.9 122
Three Pointers 44% 85 C+ 33% 131 +0.9 233
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.1 196 B- -2.5 79
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 104
Second Chance C 30.3% 173 B 0.95 65 C+ 0.29 108
Turnovers D- 13.8% 338
Freethrows B- 0.28 95 B- 70% 78 B- 0.19 79
Total Defense C+ +1.0 139

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 177 B- 13.6% 77
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 267 D- 1.6% 339
Three Pointers F+ 92% 353 D+ 0.5% 249
Total D+ 60% 290 C 5.6% 175

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.6 356 17.5 219
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 285 0.16 127
Improvement +3.3 #42 +3.3 #35

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 198 175 151
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 6 3 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 17% 8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 16% 21% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round15% 17% 8%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 77.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 33 - 64 - 7
Quad 414 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 274 @Central Michigan L 66 - 82 60% -12  0% 0 - 1 F -20 D- -7 F C+ B+ F -14 F C C+
 Sun, Nov 9 350 NC Central W 76 - 54 92% +16  97% 1 - 1 B- +6 C- -1 F A+ A A +8 A B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 34 @Ohio St. L 53 - 75 5% -6  42% 1 - 2 C- -5 F+ -9 D- B B C+ +1 A+ D F
 Sun, Nov 16 255 @Dartmouth W 85 - 77 55% +5  85% 2 - 2 B- +6 B +6 A C F C -1 D- C B
 Fri, Nov 21 178 Charlotte W 65 - 63 62% -2  27% 3 - 2 C- -2 C +0 B- C+ C- C- -2 A+ F D+
 Mon, Nov 24 203 Elon L 53 - 88 68% -17  1% 3 - 3 F -41 F -21 F F C+ F -25 B- F F
 Wed, Nov 26 175 @Mercer L 67 - 75 39% +3  72% 3 - 4 D+ -6 C- -1 F+ B A D -6 B F D+
 Sun, Nov 30 226 @UNC Asheville L 55 - 67 48% -8  0% 3 - 5 D- -13 F -15 F D+ C+ C+ +1 B F B
 Thu, Dec 11 242 @East Carolina W 67 - 54 52% +9  96% 4 - 5 B+ +12 D+ -3 C+ B F A+ +15 A B+ D-
 Sun, Dec 14 89 High Point W 86 - 78 OT 24% +2  69% 5 - 5 B+ +14 B- +5 A- F A+ A +9 A- A+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 238 Coastal Carolina W 67 - 49 73% +4  53% 6 - 5 1 - 0 B +11 D -4 A F F A+ +16 A+ B- D
 Sat, Dec 20 283 Georgia St. L 63 - 70 81% -4  16% 6 - 6 1 - 1 F+ -17 F -13 D F B+ D+ -5 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 239 @Old Dominion W 81 - 73 51% +13  95% 7 - 6 2 - 1 B- +7 A- +10 C+ A+ D C- -3 F+ A- F+
 Sat, Jan 3 173 @Marshall L 81 - 88 38% -8  3% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -5 C+ +3 C+ B B- F+ -8 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 283 @Georgia St. W 52 - 50 62% -2  10% 8 - 7 3 - 2 C- -2 F -16 F C- D- A+ +15 A+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 238 @Coastal Carolina L 62 - 67 51% +5  78% 8 - 8 3 - 3 D+ -6 C+ +2 F+ B+ A+ F+ -9 F C F+
 Thu, Jan 15 210 James Madison W 80 - 65 68% +11  99% 9 - 8 4 - 3 B +9 A+ +16 A+ A+ B D+ -4 A C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 239 Old Dominion L 73 - 75 73% -10  0% 9 - 9 4 - 4 D -9 C -0 C- B+ A- F+ -9 F C+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 303 Louisiana W 72 - 58 83% +1  44% 10 - 9 5 - 4 C+ +3 B +6 A+ C- F+ C -0 A D- F
 Fri, Jan 23 353 Louisiana Monroe W 59 - 43 93% +8  80% 11 - 9 6 - 4 C -1 F -25 F F C A+ +24 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 29 245 @Southern Miss W 70 - 63 52% +2  68% 12 - 9 7 - 4 B- +6 C- -0 D F A- B+ +6 B B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 146 @Troy W 66 - 44 32% +9  90% 13 - 9 8 - 4 A+ +26 B- +5 B+ F F+ A+ +25 A+ A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 4 188 South Alabama W 65 - 57 65% +3  79% 14 - 9 9 - 4 C+ +3 C +0 D- C+ A+ B +4 B- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 244 Eastern Michigan W 65 - 60 73% +3  78% 15 - 9 C- -2 D- -6 D+ F A+ B +4 A+ F F
 Wed, Feb 11 262 @Georgia Southern W 81 - 65 57% +8  98% 16 - 9 10 - 4 B+ +13 B+ +7 C C B+ A- +7 C A+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 210 @James Madison L 58 - 69 46% -6  5% 16 - 10 10 - 5 D -11 F -10 F A F+ C- -2 B- B- F
 Thu, Feb 19 173 Marshall L 93 - 94 61% +6  86% 16 - 11 10 - 6 D+ -5 A+ +18 B+ A+ A+ F -23 F C F
 Sat, Feb 21 262 Georgia Southern W 76 - 68 77%
 Fri, Feb 27 225 @Texas St. L 65 - 66 49%
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 -1 C- -2 A+ D+ C+ C+ +1 D- F D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D+ D- D+ 36% 29% 47% C+ D+ C C C B- C+ F D+ C+ B C C+ B- 37% 19% 44% C- B- C B C+ D- B- B- B-
1.06 59% 35% 30% -3 0 0.97 30% 1.0 .31 16% .32 63% .20 1.07 53% 38% 33% -2 0 0.97 30% 0.9 .29 14% .28 70% .22
Nov
3		 Central Michigan D- F F F+ F 33% 17% 50% C- F C C+ C+ B+ A+ F C F D F F F 49% 16% 35% F F F A+ C C+ D- F F
1.02 38% 25% 29% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 14% .52 48% .25 1.26 63% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.27 45% 0.7 .31 18% .32 82% .26
Nov
9		 NC Central C- C- F F F 33% 15% 52% C- F D+ A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ A A+ A+ B+ A+ 44% 13% 44% F A A+ D+ B+ C- F+ F F
1.18 60% 29% 25% -8 0 0.87 33% 1.6 .55 12% .52 72% .37 0.84 38% 17% 29% -15 +1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 17% .38 90% .34
Nov
11		 Ohio St. F+ F F D+ D- 24% 29% 47% C- D- F+ A+ B B F F F C+ D A- A+ A+ 21% 23% 55% B A+ B- F D F F B- F
0.86 42% 29% 30% -9 -2 0.80 21% 1.7 .35 15% .15 63% .10 1.22 70% 36% 27% -4 -2 0.91 33% 1.3 .44 7% .56 75% .42
Nov
16		 Dartmouth B B+ A+ D+ A- 55% 14% 31% B+ A B+ F+ C F A C+ A- C B A+ F D- 29% 7% 64% D- D- C- B C B F C F
1.18 68% 57% 31% +7 +2 1.20 35% 0.8 .29 18% .36 71% .25 1.07 50% 0% 44% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.0 .26 22% .53 73% .39
Nov
21		 Charlotte C C- B B B- 35% 18% 48% C+ B- C B- C+ C- A+ D- A+ C- B A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% F+ A+ F D+ F D+ A+ A A+
1.15 57% 43% 37% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.2 .37 16% .48 65% .32 1.11 55% 25% 26% -8 +2 0.91 42% 1.0 .42 18% .24 64% .15
Nov
24		 Elon F C- F F F 30% 9% 61% B F F D- F C+ A+ F C F D F A+ C+ 37% 16% 47% B+ B- F F F F C F D
0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21 1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25
Nov
26		 Mercer C- A+ D F F+ 38% 28% 34% D F+ C+ B B A C- F F D A+ C F C+ 17% 30% 53% A+ B F D- F D+ D+ F F+
1.08 79% 36% 12% -4 -1 0.92 35% 1.1 .38 13% .24 54% .13 1.21 25% 36% 40% -2 -3 0.94 41% 1.1 .46 14% .36 84% .30
Nov
30		 UNC Asheville F A+ D F D- 21% 30% 49% F F F A D+ C+ D+ F F C+ F+ F A+ A- 29% 29% 41% D- B F+ F F B F F F
0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13 1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43
Dec
11		 East Carolina D+ A- C- F C 46% 17% 38% B+ C+ A- D+ B F D+ F D A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ 43% 22% 35% D A C+ A- B+ D- A+ A+ A+
1.03 68% 38% 28% +1 +1 1.06 39% 1.1 .42 25% .24 67% .16 0.83 41% 45% 17% -15 0 0.73 31% 0.8 .26 14% .21 50% .11
Dec
14		 High Point B- F A+ A+ A- 36% 13% 51% C+ A- F D+ F A+ A C+ A A B A A+ 37% 0% 63% F+ A- C- A+ A+ D- D A+ B+
1.14 42% 57% 48% +8 +1 1.19 21% 1.0 .21 16% .41 73% .30 1.03 55% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 0.5 .16 11% .40 56% .22
Dec
18		 Coastal Carolina D C B- A+ A 40% 27% 33% B A D- F F F A+ F B+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% D A+ C- A- B- D F+ A+ B-
1.03 56% 42% 47% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.7 .16 18% .42 64% .26 0.75 41% 42% 18% -15 -1 0.71 27% 0.8 .20 14% .32 50% .16
Dec
20		 Georgia St. F B- F C- D- 42% 16% 42% C+ D F F F B+ A+ F B D+ F B D- F 30% 28% 41% C- F C+ A+ A+ A- F B D-
0.93 62% 0% 33% -5 +1 0.94 19% 0.4 .08 13% .41 58% .24 1.04 79% 31% 37% +6 -2 1.11 26% 0.5 .13 21% .37 75% .28
Dec
31		 Old Dominion A- A D- F C+ 46% 22% 33% C+ C+ A A+ A+ D A+ F B+ C- F A+ F F+ 33% 21% 46% D+ F+ C A+ A- F+ F A+ C-
1.22 71% 30% 27% +1 0 1.04 42% 1.5 .65 17% .51 61% .31 1.10 71% 18% 42% +5 0 1.12 25% 0.7 .18 12% .38 59% .22
Jan
3		 Marshall C+ A- A D- B- 33% 27% 41% D+ C+ C A B B- A+ F B F+ C+ F+ F F 34% 26% 40% C F A+ A+ A+ F F C+ F
1.15 69% 46% 30% +3 -1 1.06 33% 1.2 .38 16% .52 55% .29 1.25 59% 46% 55% +15 -1 1.30 21% 0.8 .18 11% .40 72% .29
Jan
8		 Georgia St. F D- F F F 40% 13% 47% B- F B+ F C- D- F F F A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 30% 44% 26% A A+ A F C- F B+ A+ A+
0.84 50% 0% 24% -15 +1 0.73 40% 0.8 .31 19% .20 60% .12 0.81 33% 32% 15% -17 -4 0.60 20% 1.5 .30 11% .24 62% .15
Jan
10		 Coastal Carolina C+ D+ F F+ F 29% 29% 43% C F+ B B+ B+ A+ C+ B+ B F+ F A- F F 35% 28% 37% D+ F C+ D+ C F+ B A+ A
1.08 50% 29% 29% -8 -2 0.82 32% 1.2 .38 7% .32 76% .24 1.16 69% 31% 47% +9 -1 1.17 24% 1.0 .24 12% .22 55% .12
Jan
15		 James Madison A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% A- A+ A- A+ A+ B F F F D+ A+ A+ F A+ 35% 13% 52% C- A F+ B+ C- F C- C+ C
1.36 58% 50% 45% +10 +2 1.26 38% 1.3 .50 10% .15 63% .09 1.11 24% 17% 40% -10 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .33 10% .30 69% .21
Jan
17		 Old Dominion C B- F F D 53% 10% 37% A C- D+ A+ B+ A- A F C F+ D F F F 24% 27% 49% B- F A F C+ C- F A+ D-
1.12 65% 20% 22% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.5 .41 11% .43 60% .26 1.16 64% 50% 45% +13 -2 1.24 18% 1.4 .25 15% .42 61% .26
Jan
22		 Louisiana B C+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 13% 63% D A+ B+ F C- F+ D- F F C D+ B A+ A 24% 30% 46% C- A B+ F D- F B+ F C+
1.22 60% 80% 48% +19 0 1.40 38% 0.8 .31 22% .32 60% .19 0.98 58% 33% 22% -10 -2 0.78 22% 1.4 .30 10% .17 89% .15
Jan
23		 Louisiana Monroe F C+ A+ F F 39% 5% 56% B F D+ F F C F A F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 9% 43% F A+ B A+ A+ C C+ C+ C+
0.85 64% 67% 19% -9 +2 0.88 34% 0.1 .04 16% .15 78% .12 0.62 20% 20% 22% -28 +2 0.51 20% 0.5 .10 17% .30 71% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Southern Miss C- F F A+ D- 48% 15% 37% B D D F F A- A+ A A+ B+ B C+ A+ B 39% 35% 27% C+ B D- A+ B+ C- F A- F+
1.05 41% 29% 47% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.5 .11 14% .50 76% .38 0.95 53% 35% 23% -7 -2 0.84 36% 0.7 .24 18% .48 69% .33
Jan
31		 Troy B- A+ C B- A- 15% 15% 70% D+ B+ C- F F F+ F A+ D- A+ C B A+ A+ 37% 12% 51% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+
1.12 86% 43% 36% +7 -1 1.15 30% 0.7 .20 20% .17 88% .15 0.75 56% 33% 16% -15 +1 0.73 22% 0.5 .11 15% .08 100% .08
Feb
4		 South Alabama C C+ A+ F D- 18% 4% 78% C+ D- D+ A- C+ A+ A+ F A B C+ A+ F C 33% 29% 38% A+ B- A- A+ A+ F A- D B
1.11 63% 100% 26% -6 +1 0.91 29% 1.3 .37 10% .34 67% .23 0.98 56% 21% 39% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.5 .08 9% .24 69% .17
Feb
7		 Eastern Michigan D- C A+ F D- 56% 10% 33% A D+ C+ F F A+ A+ F B B A+ D+ A+ A+ 30% 37% 33% A A+ B+ F F F A+ A- A+
1.01 56% 60% 19% -7 +3 0.94 32% 0.4 .12 11% .49 54% .26 0.93 44% 40% 17% -12 -3 0.72 23% 1.9 .44 9% .10 67% .07
Feb
11		 Georgia Southern B+ B D- D- C- 49% 7% 44% B+ C C+ C- C B+ A+ D A+ A- B- A+ D C+ 42% 9% 49% D+ C D- A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+
1.22 64% 33% 30% 0 +3 1.07 37% 1.0 .37 15% .50 71% .36 0.98 50% 0% 36% -5 +2 0.95 32% 0.5 .15 18% .17 67% .11
Feb
14		 James Madison F C C- F F 21% 26% 53% F F B A+ A F+ A+ F B- C- A B D- B- 38% 20% 42% B- B- C- A- B- F C- B+ C+
0.95 56% 36% 13% -18 -2 0.63 35% 1.3 .45 16% .47 58% .27 1.13 47% 30% 38% -3 0 0.96 30% 0.9 .27 8% .30 65% .20
Feb
19		 Marshall A+ C A+ B+ B 35% 5% 60% A B+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F D+ F F F 32% 25% 43% C- F B+ F C F F C+ F+
1.40 60% 50% 38% +5 +2 1.16 39% 1.6 .64 11% .67 70% .47 1.41 65% 62% 48% +17 -1 1.34 27% 1.3 .35 8% .34 71% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 15.7 16.0 1st
2nd 5.7 17.8 23.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 20.1 4.7 24.8 3rd
4th 1.0 18.7 19.7 4th
5th 5.0 4.7 9.7 5th
6th 5.9 5.9 6th
7th 0.5 0.5 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 12.4 49.4 38.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 41.2% 15.7    0.4 3.3 7.3 4.8
11-7 0.5% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 16.0% 16.0 0.4 3.3 7.3 4.8 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 38.2% 25.2% 25.2% 14.2 0.0 1.2 5.6 2.8 0.1 28.6
11-7 49.4% 9.0% 9.0% 14.5 0.2 1.9 2.2 0.2 44.9
10-8 12.4% 4.7% 4.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 11.8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 14.3 85.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.6% 100.0% 14.2 0.1 12.2 58.3 28.8 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 17.1%
Lose Out 4.8%