Appalachian St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#170
Expected Predictive Rating-1.7#202
Pace62.5#330
Improvement+0.5#145

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#209
First Shot+1.3#136
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#311
Layup/Dunks-5.1#318
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#23
Freethrows-2.1#285
Improvement-1.0#261

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#143
First Shot-0.2#172
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#115
Layups/Dunks+0.2#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
Freethrows+1.8#85
Improvement+1.4#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.5% 12.5% 8.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 46.5% 66.7% 39.5%
.500 or above in Conference 70.4% 79.1% 67.3%
Conference Champion 11.6% 16.0% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 2.0% 3.8%
First Four0.7% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round9.3% 12.3% 8.2%
Second Round0.8% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 25.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 66 - 12
Quad 49 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 97   @ Iona L 53-65 21%     0 - 1 -3.8 -10.2 +5.6
  Nov 12, 2021 131   East Tennessee St. W 69-67 52%     1 - 1 +1.3 +4.4 -2.8
  Nov 18, 2021 220   Charlotte L 66-67 69%     1 - 2 -6.4 -6.6 +0.2
  Nov 22, 2021 155   Delaware L 68-75 47%     1 - 3 -6.3 +0.5 -7.5
  Nov 23, 2021 153   Akron W 57-45 46%     2 - 3 +12.8 -13.2 +26.6
  Nov 24, 2021 103   Vermont L 63-65 33%     2 - 4 +2.5 +5.6 -3.4
  Nov 29, 2021 254   Hartford W 69-59 77%     3 - 4 +2.2 -5.6 +8.2
  Dec 10, 2021 110   @ Furman L 64-71 26%    
  Dec 16, 2021 8   @ Duke L 58-78 3%    
  Dec 21, 2021 24   @ North Carolina L 64-81 6%    
  Dec 30, 2021 189   Louisiana W 71-67 64%    
  Jan 01, 2022 259   Louisiana Monroe W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 06, 2022 122   @ South Alabama L 63-69 29%    
  Jan 08, 2022 262   @ Troy W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 13, 2022 173   Coastal Carolina W 66-63 61%    
  Jan 15, 2022 173   @ Coastal Carolina L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 20, 2022 145   @ Georgia St. L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 196   @ Georgia Southern L 61-63 43%    
  Jan 27, 2022 228   Arkansas St. W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 29, 2022 288   Arkansas Little Rock W 71-61 81%    
  Feb 03, 2022 141   @ Texas St. L 60-65 33%    
  Feb 05, 2022 234   @ Texas Arlington W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 10, 2022 196   Georgia Southern W 64-60 64%    
  Feb 12, 2022 145   Georgia St. W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 17, 2022 262   Troy W 68-60 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 122   South Alabama L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 24, 2022 288   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 68-64 63%    
  Feb 25, 2022 228   @ Arkansas St. W 67-66 51%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.5 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 11.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.2 4.3 2.0 0.5 0.1 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.7 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.3 3.3 5.3 1.9 0.1 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.2 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.8 0.7 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.8 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 3.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.3 5.4 8.0 10.2 12.7 13.5 13.2 11.4 8.6 5.7 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.2% 1.4    1.3 0.1 0.0
15-3 83.6% 2.7    2.1 0.6 0.0
14-4 61.1% 3.5    1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 29.5% 2.6    0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 6.6 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 51.2% 51.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 38.7% 37.4% 1.4% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2%
16-2 1.5% 32.5% 32.5% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.3% 27.3% 27.3% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.4
14-4 5.7% 23.3% 23.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 4.4
13-5 8.6% 19.9% 19.9% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 6.9
12-6 11.4% 14.1% 14.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 9.8
11-7 13.2% 11.2% 11.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 11.7
10-8 13.5% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 12.7
9-9 12.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 12.2
8-10 10.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.0
7-11 8.0% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.9
6-12 5.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.3
5-13 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.8 3.3 1.3 90.5 0.0%