Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -4.6 246
Results Rating -7.0 275
Consistency 0.13 63
Pace 71.3 106
Improvement +1.9 113

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 233 D+ D+ C+ C- D
Defense C- 241 C C D D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 273 C 58% 171 -1.7 244
2 Pt. Jumpers 51% 42 D 34% 317 +1.4 104
Three Pointers 37% 262 C 34% 183 -2.0 250
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 313 C- -1.2 215
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 250
Second Chance D 25.1% 321 B- 1.10 81 D+ 0.28 258
Turnovers from Steals C 9.7% 198
Other Turnovers B 6.3% 65
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 125
Freethrows D+ 0.28 249 C+ 74% 156 C- 0.21 219
Total Offense C- -2.3 233

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 281 F+ 14.9% 342
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 196 C 5.5% 214
Three Pointers B 90% 55 D- 1.6% 332
Total C- 52% 255 D- 7.4% 337

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 55 D 64% 325 +5.4 342
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 125 B- 35% 74 -0.1 181
Three Pointers 34% 342 B 31% 58 -4.8 16
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 204 C +0.2 189
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 192
Second Chance C- 31.1% 212 C+ 1.01 142 C 0.31 191
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.2% 276
Other Turnovers D+ 6.5% 285
Turnovers D 14.7% 304
Freethrows D+ 0.34 294 D+ 74% 280 D 0.25 304
Total Defense C- -2.3 241

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 211 C- 9.5% 229
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 299 B- 6.9% 70
Three Pointers D+ 86% 255 D 0.1% 347
Total C 55% 181 C 5.7% 167

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 154 16.6 62
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 214 0.22 324
Consistency 0.10 26 0.10 42
Improvement +1.7 106 +0.2 176

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 255 243 229
Results Rating Rank 285 271 262
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 13 12 10
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 73 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 86 @Miami (OH) L 72 - 87 9% +3  63% 0 - 1 D+ -5 D -5 B- D- F C+ +1 C- A C+
 Tue, Nov 11 304 Norfolk St. W 60 - 57 75% +1  58% 1 - 1 D -8 F+ -9 F F+ B C+ +1 A F+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 74 @George Washington L 73 - 96 8% -11  15% 1 - 2 D- -12 D+ -4 D- C+ F D- -7 B- D F
 Tue, Nov 18 85 @Xavier L 69 - 99 9% -20  1% 1 - 3 F -20 D- -6 D- C D+ F -12 D+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 351 Morgan St. W 88 - 56 87% +18  98% 2 - 3 A- +15 B+ +8 C D A A +9 B B- D
 Sun, Nov 23 216 @Drexel L 71 - 75 33% -1  37% 2 - 4 C- -4 C+ +3 C+ D+ B- D- -7 C- F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 35 @Villanova L 75 - 89 3% -6  16% 2 - 5 C+ +3 A +12 B B+ A+ F+ -9 D- D F+
 Sun, Nov 30 136 @William & Mary L 75 - 88 19% -7  7% 2 - 6 D -8 D- -8 D F+ D+ C+ +1 C- A D
 Sat, Dec 6 131 @Richmond L 77 - 86 18% -4  8% 2 - 7 C- -4 D+ -3 D- F+ A+ C -1 B F+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 102 @George Mason L 61 - 73 13% -10  0% 2 - 8 C- -5 F -12 D- B- F A- +8 A- B+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 203 James Madison W 77 - 68 53% +6  82% 3 - 8 1 - 0 C+ +4 C +1 C- F A- B- +3 C A- C+
 Sat, Dec 20 232 Coastal Carolina L 74 - 76 59% -1  24% 3 - 9 1 - 1 D -9 D -5 C+ C F D+ -4 B- A F
 Sun, Dec 28 103 @Maryland L 58 - 73 13% -18  0% 3 - 10 D+ -8 F -12 F D+ D B +4 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 172 Appalachian St. L 73 - 81 47% -13  0% 3 - 11 1 - 2 D- -12 C +1 A- F+ B F -13 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 267 Georgia Southern L 86 - 93 67% -13  0% 3 - 12 1 - 3 F+ -16 D- -7 F D A+ D- -8 D- D D
 Thu, Jan 8 232 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 36% +7  99% 4 - 12 2 - 3 C+ +3 C- -2 C B F B +5 B+ B- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 203 @James Madison L 69 - 70 31% +9  88% 4 - 13 2 - 4 C -0 D- -6 F D B B+ +6 D A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 267 @Georgia Southern L 84 - 87 44% +2  57% 4 - 14 2 - 5 D+ -6 B- +4 B+ D B+ F -10 F C C
 Sat, Jan 17 172 @Appalachian St. W 75 - 73 25% +10  98% 5 - 14 3 - 5 C+ +4 B+ +8 A+ C- D+ D+ -4 C F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 148 Troy L 77 - 83 2OT 42% +1  65% 5 - 15 3 - 6 D -8 F -11 F+ F B B- +3 A+ D C-
 Wed, Jan 28 144 @Arkansas St. W 75 - 71 22% +5  96% 6 - 15 4 - 6 B- +8 C- -2 D+ D+ B+ A +9 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 236 @Texas St. L 64 - 81 37% -12  0% 6 - 16 4 - 7 F -18 F+ -10 F C- D F+ -9 D- B F
 Wed, Feb 4 353 Louisiana Monroe L 79 - 85 87% -6  0% 6 - 17 4 - 8 F -23 F+ -10 F D B- F -13 D B- C
 Sat, Feb 7 208 Ohio W 78 - 72 54% -0  57% 7 - 17 C +0 B- +5 D B- A+ D+ -5 D C F+
 Wed, Feb 11 174 Marshall L 79 - 81 47% +7  86% 7 - 18 4 - 9 D+ -6 C- -2 B- C A- D+ -4 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 292 Georgia St. W 78 - 55 72% +12  98% 8 - 18 5 - 9 B+ +12 B +6 B+ A+ D A- +8 A+ D- F
 Mon, Feb 16 296 Louisiana W 83 - 72 73% +2  74% 9 - 18 6 - 9 C +0 B+ +8 A- F A+ D- -7 B- D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 237 @Southern Miss L 81 - 86 37% +3  58% 9 - 19 6 - 10 D+ -6 D+ -4 D- A- F C- -2 F C+ A+
 Tue, Feb 24 174 @Marshall L 88 - 97 26% -7  2% 9 - 20 6 - 11 D+ -7 B+ +8 C- A A+ F -15 F C F
 Fri, Feb 27 292 @Georgia St. W 74 - 73 51%
Totals 10 - 20 7 - 11 -5 C- -2 A C- D C- -2 C C+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D C C- 36% 51% 37% D D+ D B- D+ C+ D+ C+ C- C- D B- B C 44% 22% 34% C- C C- C+ C D D+ D+ D
1.05 58% 34% 34% -1 -1 0.97 25% 1.1 .28 16% .28 74% .21 1.12 64% 35% 31% 0 0 1.03 31% 1.0 .31 15% .34 74% .21
Nov
3		 Miami (OH) D D+ C A+ B 33% 27% 41% D+ B- F B D- F C A- B- C+ F+ B+ A- C+ 55% 6% 39% F C- C- A+ A C+ F D- F
0.96 56% 38% 45% +6 -1 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 25% .29 81% .23 1.16 71% 33% 30% +5 +3 1.18 25% 0.6 .16 16% .43 81% .35
Nov
11		 Norfolk St. F+ A+ C- F F 35% 19% 47% D F D+ F F+ B C B- C+ C+ A D A+ A+ 42% 27% 31% C- A F B- F+ C+ A- F C
1.01 80% 38% 15% -6 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .23 15% .38 74% .28 0.96 42% 42% 21% -12 -1 0.78 42% 0.9 .39 20% .27 85% .23
Nov
15		 George Washington D+ F F A+ D 35% 24% 41% D+ D- A F C+ F A+ D+ A D- D F A+ B 51% 10% 39% C- B- B- F D F F B- F
0.99 35% 25% 45% -4 -1 0.92 39% 0.8 .32 22% .38 68% .26 1.31 65% 60% 25% +1 +2 1.08 34% 1.3 .45 8% .58 72% .41
Nov
18		 Xavier D- B+ F+ F D- 37% 31% 31% D D- D+ B+ C D+ C+ D+ C F C- C+ D- C- 29% 15% 56% D- D+ F F F C F B- F
0.93 65% 29% 24% -5 -1 0.89 24% 1.0 .24 19% .30 67% .20 1.33 63% 38% 39% +5 0 1.13 50% 1.2 .61 12% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Morgan St. B+ B- D+ A B- 28% 22% 50% F C C F D A C+ B- B- A C B+ A+ A 52% 20% 28% F B D+ A B- D D+ A+ A-
1.32 64% 36% 40% +6 -1 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 11% .45 74% .34 0.84 54% 30% 14% -12 +1 0.80 32% 0.6 .20 17% .36 55% .20
Nov
23		 Drexel C+ F C- A+ B- 40% 36% 25% D- C+ C+ F+ D+ B- D+ F F D- B- A- F C- 46% 22% 33% C- C- D- F F D- F F F
1.08 43% 37% 54% +1 -2 1.00 32% 0.9 .29 14% .28 56% .16 1.14 52% 30% 47% +2 0 1.07 34% 1.1 .37 17% .38 76% .29
Nov
25		 Villanova A F F A+ B 28% 24% 48% C- B F+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B A+ F+ F D- C+ F+ 35% 18% 47% C+ D- A F D F+ F C- F
1.13 46% 27% 45% +2 -1 1.04 22% 1.7 .38 15% .39 73% .28 1.34 89% 44% 33% +12 0 1.25 29% 1.4 .42 11% .44 73% .32
Nov
30		 William & Mary D- B- C F D 36% 13% 51% C D F A+ F+ D+ F A+ C- C+ F F A+ D+ 43% 16% 41% B- C- C A+ A D F F F
0.95 64% 38% 26% -4 +1 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 20% .21 92% .19 1.11 73% 63% 24% +4 +1 1.12 27% 0.8 .20 15% .45 83% .37
Dec
6		 Richmond D+ B+ D- F D- 30% 27% 43% C D- D+ F F+ A+ C A+ B- C D+ A+ B+ A- 49% 28% 23% F+ B D+ F F+ F F A+ C-
1.02 67% 31% 23% -6 -1 0.87 28% 0.8 .23 9% .29 80% .23 1.14 64% 25% 31% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.3 .36 9% .41 64% .26
Dec
13		 George Mason F D- D- C D- 36% 34% 30% D D- F A+ B- F C A- B- A- C+ A+ A- A+ 54% 18% 28% F A- A C B+ C- F C- F
0.86 50% 29% 33% -6 -2 0.86 18% 1.7 .30 22% .25 79% .20 1.03 59% 11% 29% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.0 .24 15% .52 74% .38
Dec
17		 James Madison C D+ F C+ C- 33% 16% 51% C C- F+ F F A- A+ A+ A+ B- F D- A+ C 40% 15% 45% C- C A B- A- C+ D+ D+ D
1.15 53% 29% 35% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 9% .54 82% .44 1.01 79% 43% 19% -1 +1 1.02 22% 1.0 .22 18% .33 72% .24
Dec
20		 Coastal Carolina D C- D+ A C+ 33% 37% 29% D+ C+ F A+ C F C+ A- B D+ D C A+ B- 42% 31% 27% D+ B- B+ A+ A F F F F
1.01 53% 37% 40% 0 -3 0.98 16% 1.8 .29 18% .32 79% .25 1.04 60% 39% 19% -5 -1 0.90 20% 0.6 .13 7% .35 88% .31
Dec
28		 Maryland F B- F F F 29% 37% 33% F F C+ F D+ D B+ F+ B- B B+ A+ F C- 33% 20% 47% B- C A+ D+ A+ F A- F B-
0.85 60% 26% 24% -9 -3 0.78 28% 0.8 .23 19% .35 63% .22 1.07 50% 18% 42% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.1 .24 12% .28 82% .23
Dec
31		 Appalachian St. C A+ F A+ A 33% 21% 46% D+ A- D F F+ B A+ F B- F F B+ A D 46% 22% 33% C D F F F C+ F B- F
1.10 71% 18% 42% +5 0 1.12 25% 0.7 .18 12% .38 59% .22 1.22 71% 30% 27% +1 0 1.04 42% 1.5 .65 17% .51 61% .31
Jan
3		 Georgia Southern D- D- F F F 38% 28% 34% F F F+ B D A+ C- B C D- D- C- C F+ 46% 21% 32% B D- D- C D D F F F
1.06 52% 28% 27% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.2 .31 11% .35 80% .28 1.15 62% 42% 33% +2 0 1.07 32% 1.1 .34 14% .43 80% .34
Jan
8		 Coastal Carolina C- F+ B C+ C- 40% 29% 31% B- C B+ C B F F+ F F B C+ A+ D A- 33% 25% 42% D B+ A F B- D+ D D- D-
1.02 45% 44% 35% -3 -1 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 17% .23 38% .09 0.96 53% 8% 36% -8 -1 0.85 18% 1.1 .21 15% .31 78% .24
Jan
10		 James Madison D- F C C+ F+ 33% 30% 37% F+ F F B- D B D+ C- D+ B+ F B+ A+ D 52% 23% 25% C- D C+ A+ A- A+ F F F
1.00 33% 38% 35% -8 -2 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 10% .32 70% .23 1.01 78% 30% 18% +3 +1 1.09 28% 0.8 .21 23% .47 80% .38
Jan
15		 Georgia Southern B- D+ C- A+ A- 40% 15% 45% C B+ C- D- D B+ F F F F C F F F 44% 12% 44% C- F D- A- C C F B+ F
1.18 55% 38% 48% +8 +1 1.20 33% 0.9 .31 15% .25 67% .17 1.22 55% 50% 45% +7 +2 1.20 32% 0.9 .29 15% .47 68% .32
Jan
17		 Appalachian St. B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 27% 49% F+ A+ F A+ C- D+ A+ F A- D+ D A+ A+ C+ 53% 10% 37% F C B- F F+ F F B F+
1.16 64% 50% 45% +13 -2 1.24 18% 1.4 .25 15% .42 61% .26 1.12 65% 20% 22% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.5 .41 11% .43 60% .26
Jan
21		 Troy F B C- F D- 39% 31% 30% D- F+ F F+ F B A C+ A B- A+ F A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B A+ B+ F D C- F F F
0.94 63% 42% 17% -5 -1 0.90 17% 0.9 .14 15% .36 72% .26 1.02 38% 60% 18% -14 +1 0.75 29% 1.3 .38 16% .50 85% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Arkansas St. C- C- C+ D+ C- 32% 31% 37% D- D+ F A+ D+ B+ F A F+ A F A+ B- B- 32% 19% 49% B B- A+ B+ A+ C+ B A+ A-
1.04 58% 39% 32% -1 -2 0.97 14% 1.8 .25 12% .22 79% .17 0.98 71% 10% 31% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 21% .30 65% .19
Jan
31		 Texas St. F+ C F F F 41% 14% 45% C+ F B F+ C- D A- A+ A+ F+ D+ B- F F+ 39% 33% 27% B- D- C A B F F D F
0.93 60% 14% 23% -10 +1 0.84 33% 0.8 .27 20% .40 82% .33 1.17 60% 35% 43% +3 -2 1.06 32% 0.7 .24 12% .41 80% .33
Feb
4		 Louisiana Monroe F+ C F F F 38% 20% 42% D+ F D C D B- A+ D- A+ F F F A+ D- 40% 27% 33% B- D F A+ B- C F F+ F
1.08 62% 27% 26% -6 0 0.91 31% 1.2 .36 14% .46 66% .30 1.16 68% 54% 19% +1 -1 1.02 47% 0.4 .21 18% .60 78% .46
Feb
7		 Ohio B- A+ F A+ C 34% 45% 21% F D C- B+ B- A+ C- A+ B+ D+ F C+ B- D- 30% 24% 46% B- D C+ C- C F+ B+ B B+
1.20 78% 17% 45% +1 -4 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 9% .31 89% .27 1.11 80% 42% 30% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.0 .26 12% .26 67% .18
Feb
11		 Marshall C- B+ A- C- B 32% 36% 32% F+ B- F A+ C A- F F F D+ F+ B- F F 38% 25% 36% D+ F A+ A+ A+ D- D+ A C
1.12 67% 45% 33% +5 -2 1.07 21% 1.6 .32 13% .21 62% .13 1.15 71% 36% 50% +13 -1 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 14% .28 65% .18
Feb
14		 Georgia St. B A B A A 37% 30% 33% F+ B+ B+ A+ A+ D C+ F D+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 23% 44% 33% A+ A+ F+ C- D- F D+ D D
1.21 71% 43% 40% +9 -1 1.17 41% 1.4 .56 19% .30 63% .19 0.85 33% 17% 18% -23 -4 0.48 33% 1.1 .35 12% .32 83% .27
Feb
16		 Louisiana B+ A+ C+ A- A 51% 28% 21% D A- F C- F A+ A- A- A D- D B+ D- C 20% 55% 25% A+ B- F C D- F F C- F
1.25 75% 38% 40% +11 0 1.23 16% 1.0 .16 12% .44 81% .36 1.08 60% 32% 38% -1 -6 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 12% .43 72% .31
Feb
21		 Southern Miss D+ F D+ A D- 38% 26% 36% D D- C- A+ A- F A A A+ C- D+ A F F 55% 22% 22% F F F A+ C+ A+ F A F
1.00 40% 36% 42% -3 -1 0.94 26% 1.6 .41 23% .44 78% .34 1.06 63% 27% 55% +7 +1 1.18 47% 0.6 .30 32% .55 67% .36
Feb
24		 Marshall B+ B- C+ F C- 47% 28% 26% C+ C- B- A+ A A+ D A+ B- F F F A- F 28% 32% 40% B+ F B- D- C F A+ F+ A-
1.22 63% 38% 27% -1 0 1.00 38% 1.2 .46 11% .31 90% .28 1.34 88% 79% 29% +19 -2 1.35 29% 1.3 .36 10% .15 80% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 25.1 25.1 10th
11th 23.2 23.2 11th
12th 3.0 3.0 12th
13th 48.8 48.8 13th
14th 14th
Total 48.8 51.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 51.2% 51.2
6-12 48.8% 48.8
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 51.2%
Lose Out 48.8%