Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.3 239
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 270
Pace 70.6 125
Improvement +3.2 68

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 238 C- D+ C+ C- D
Defense C- 233 C C D D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 284 C 59% 150 -1.7 247
2 Pt. Jumpers 51% 43 D 33% 324 +1.3 108
Three Pointers 37% 254 C 34% 178 -1.7 245
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 315 C- -1.0 212
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 247
Second Chance D 24.8% 328 C+ 1.07 108 D+ 0.27 284
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 127
Freethrows C- 0.29 245 C 73% 172 C- 0.21 221
Total Offense C- -2.4 238

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 268 D- 14.4% 338
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 192 C- 5.8% 236
Three Pointers B 89% 62 D+ 1.2% 279
Total C- 53% 236 D 7.1% 322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 61 D 63% 318 +5.2 336
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 116 B+ 33% 31 -0.4 157
Three Pointers 34% 342 B+ 30% 43 -5.2 11
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 195 C -0.5 162
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 162
Second Chance C 30.9% 204 C 1.02 169 C 0.31 195
Turnovers D 14.5% 320
Freethrows D 0.35 300 D+ 74% 298 D 0.26 316
Total Defense C- -1.9 233

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 241 C- 9.3% 235
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 282 B- 6.9% 69
Three Pointers C- 86% 233 D 0.1% 339
Total C 56% 188 C 5.6% 172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 155 16.8 99
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 189 0.22 323
Improvement +1.7 #109 +1.5 #97

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 258 238 214
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 9 - 9
Conference Finish 13 11 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 6% 15% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Southern Miss (Away) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 73 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 85 @Miami (OH) L 72 - 87 10% +3  63% 0 - 1 D+ -5 D -6 B- D- F C+ +2 C- A C+
 Tue, Nov 11 306 Norfolk St. W 60 - 57 76% +1  58% 1 - 1 D -9 F+ -9 F F+ B- C+ +1 A F+ C+
 Sat, Nov 15 80 @George Washington L 73 - 96 10% -11  15% 1 - 2 D- -13 D+ -4 D C+ F F+ -8 B- D F
 Tue, Nov 18 82 @Xavier L 69 - 99 10% -20  1% 1 - 3 F -20 D- -6 D- C D+ F -12 D+ F C
 Fri, Nov 21 352 Morgan St. W 88 - 56 88% +18  98% 2 - 3 A- +15 B+ +8 C D- A A +9 B B- D
 Sun, Nov 23 222 @Drexel L 71 - 75 35% -1  37% 2 - 4 C- -4 C+ +3 C+ D+ B D- -7 C- F D-
 Tue, Nov 25 31 @Villanova L 75 - 89 3% -6  16% 2 - 5 C+ +4 A +12 B A- A+ F+ -9 D- D F+
 Sun, Nov 30 134 @William & Mary L 75 - 88 20% -7  7% 2 - 6 D -8 D- -8 D F+ D+ C+ +1 C- A D
 Sat, Dec 6 129 @Richmond L 77 - 86 19% -4  8% 2 - 7 C- -4 C- -2 D F+ A+ C -1 B F+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 105 @George Mason L 61 - 73 14% -10  0% 2 - 8 C- -5 F -12 D- B- F A- +8 A- B+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 210 James Madison W 77 - 68 56% +6  82% 3 - 8 1 - 0 C+ +3 C +1 C- F A- B- +3 C B+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 238 Coastal Carolina L 74 - 76 61% -1  24% 3 - 9 1 - 1 D -9 D -6 C+ C F D+ -4 B- A F
 Sun, Dec 28 107 @Maryland L 58 - 73 15% -18  0% 3 - 10 D+ -8 F -12 F D+ D B +4 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 174 Appalachian St. L 73 - 81 49% -13  0% 3 - 11 1 - 2 D- -12 C +1 A- F+ B- F -13 D F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 262 Georgia Southern L 86 - 93 67% -13  0% 3 - 12 1 - 3 F+ -16 D- -7 F D A+ D- -8 D- D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 238 @Coastal Carolina W 70 - 66 38% +7  99% 4 - 12 2 - 3 C+ +3 C- -2 C- B F B +5 B+ B- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 210 @James Madison L 69 - 70 33% +9  88% 4 - 13 2 - 4 C -1 D- -7 F D- B B+ +6 D A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 262 @Georgia Southern L 84 - 87 44% +2  57% 4 - 14 2 - 5 D+ -6 B- +4 A- D B+ F -10 F C C
 Sat, Jan 17 174 @Appalachian St. W 75 - 73 27% +10  98% 5 - 14 3 - 5 C+ +4 B+ +8 A+ D+ D+ D+ -4 C F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 146 Troy L 77 - 83 2OT 42% +1  65% 5 - 15 3 - 6 D -8 F -11 D- F B B- +3 A+ D C-
 Wed, Jan 28 140 @Arkansas St. W 75 - 71 21% +5  96% 6 - 15 4 - 6 B +8 C- -1 D+ C- B A +9 B- A C+
 Sat, Jan 31 225 @Texas St. L 64 - 81 36% -12  0% 6 - 16 4 - 7 F+ -18 F+ -10 F C D D- -8 D B F
 Wed, Feb 4 353 Louisiana Monroe L 79 - 85 88% -6  0% 6 - 17 4 - 8 F -23 F+ -9 F D B F -13 D C+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 208 Ohio W 78 - 72 56% -0  57% 7 - 17 C +0 B- +5 D+ C+ A+ D+ -5 D C+ F+
 Wed, Feb 11 173 Marshall L 79 - 81 48% +7  86% 7 - 18 4 - 9 D+ -6 C- -2 C+ C A D+ -4 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 283 Georgia St. W 78 - 55 71% +12  98% 8 - 18 5 - 9 B+ +13 B +6 A- A+ D A +8 A+ D- F
 Mon, Feb 16 303 Louisiana W 83 - 72 75% +2  74% 9 - 18 6 - 9 C -0 B+ +8 A- F A+ D- -8 B- D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 245 @Southern Miss L 72 - 75 40%
 Tue, Feb 24 173 @Marshall L 77 - 83 27%
 Fri, Feb 27 283 @Georgia St. L 73 - 74 50%
Totals 10 - 20 7 - 11 -4 C- -2 D- C- D C- -2 C C C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D C C- 35% 51% 37% D C- D C+ D+ C+ C- C C- C- D B+ B+ C 43% 22% 34% C C C C C D D D+ D
1.05 59% 33% 34% -1 -1 0.98 25% 1.1 .27 16% .29 73% .21 1.11 63% 33% 30% -1 0 1.01 31% 1.0 .31 15% .35 74% .21
Nov
3		 Miami (OH) D D+ C- A+ B 33% 27% 41% D B- F B D- F C+ A- B- C+ F+ B A- C+ 55% 6% 39% F C- C- A+ A C+ F D- F
0.96 56% 38% 45% +6 -1 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 25% .29 81% .23 1.16 71% 33% 30% +5 +3 1.18 25% 0.6 .16 16% .43 81% .35
Nov
11		 Norfolk St. F+ A+ C F F 35% 19% 47% D F D+ F F+ B- C B- C+ C+ A D A+ A+ 42% 27% 31% C- A F B- F+ C+ A- F C
1.01 80% 38% 15% -6 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .23 15% .38 74% .28 0.96 42% 42% 21% -12 -1 0.78 42% 0.9 .39 20% .27 85% .23
Nov
15		 George Washington D+ F F A+ D 35% 24% 41% D+ D A F C+ F A+ D+ A F+ D F A+ B- 51% 10% 39% C- B- B- F D F F B- F
0.99 35% 25% 45% -4 -1 0.92 39% 0.8 .32 22% .38 68% .26 1.31 65% 60% 25% +1 +2 1.08 34% 1.3 .45 8% .58 72% .41
Nov
18		 Xavier D- B F F D- 37% 31% 31% D D- D+ B+ C D+ B- D+ C+ F C- C+ D- C- 29% 15% 56% D- D+ F F F C F C+ F
0.93 65% 29% 24% -5 -1 0.89 24% 1.0 .24 19% .30 67% .20 1.33 63% 38% 39% +5 0 1.13 50% 1.2 .61 12% .37 71% .26
Nov
21		 Morgan St. B+ B- D+ A B- 28% 22% 50% F C C F D- A C+ B- B- A C B+ A+ A- 52% 20% 28% F B D+ A B- D C- A+ A-
1.32 64% 36% 40% +6 -1 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 11% .45 74% .34 0.84 54% 30% 14% -12 +1 0.80 32% 0.6 .20 17% .36 55% .20
Nov
23		 Drexel C+ F C- A+ B- 40% 36% 25% D- C+ C D- D+ B D+ F F D- B- B+ F C- 46% 22% 33% C- C- F+ F F D- F F F
1.08 43% 37% 54% +1 -2 1.00 32% 0.9 .29 14% .28 56% .16 1.14 52% 30% 47% +2 0 1.07 34% 1.1 .37 17% .38 76% .29
Nov
25		 Villanova A F+ F A+ B+ 28% 24% 48% C- B F+ A+ A- A+ A+ B A+ F+ F D- C+ F+ 35% 18% 47% C+ D- A F D F+ F C- F
1.13 46% 27% 45% +2 -1 1.04 22% 1.7 .38 15% .39 73% .28 1.34 89% 44% 33% +12 0 1.25 29% 1.4 .42 11% .44 73% .32
Nov
30		 William & Mary D- B- C F D 36% 13% 51% C D F A+ F+ D+ F A+ C- C+ F F A+ D+ 43% 16% 41% B- C- C A+ A D F F F
0.95 64% 38% 26% -4 +1 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 20% .21 92% .19 1.11 73% 63% 24% +4 +1 1.12 27% 0.8 .20 15% .45 83% .37
Dec
6		 Richmond C- B+ D- F D- 30% 27% 43% C- D D+ F F+ A+ C A+ B- C D+ A+ B+ B+ 49% 28% 23% F+ B D+ F F+ F F A+ C-
1.02 67% 31% 23% -6 -1 0.87 28% 0.8 .23 9% .29 80% .23 1.14 64% 25% 31% -2 0 0.98 28% 1.3 .36 9% .41 64% .26
Dec
13		 George Mason F D- D- C D- 36% 34% 30% D D- F A+ B- F C A- B- A- C+ A+ A- A+ 54% 18% 28% F A- A C B+ C- F D+ F
0.86 50% 29% 33% -6 -2 0.86 18% 1.7 .30 22% .25 79% .20 1.03 59% 11% 29% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.0 .24 15% .52 74% .38
Dec
17		 James Madison C D+ F C+ C- 33% 16% 51% C C- F+ F F A- A+ A+ A+ B- F F+ A+ C 40% 15% 45% C- C A- B- B+ C+ D+ D+ D
1.15 53% 29% 35% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 9% .54 82% .44 1.01 79% 43% 19% -1 +1 1.02 22% 1.0 .22 18% .33 72% .24
Dec
20		 Coastal Carolina D C- D+ A C+ 33% 37% 29% D+ C+ F A+ C F C+ A B D+ D C A+ B 42% 31% 27% D+ B- B+ A+ A F F F F
1.01 53% 37% 40% +1 -3 0.98 16% 1.8 .29 18% .32 79% .25 1.04 60% 39% 19% -5 -1 0.90 20% 0.6 .13 7% .35 88% .31
Dec
28		 Maryland F B- F F F 29% 37% 33% F F C F D+ D B+ F+ C+ B B+ A+ F C- 33% 20% 47% B- C A+ D+ A+ F A F B-
0.85 60% 26% 24% -9 -3 0.78 28% 0.8 .23 19% .35 63% .22 1.07 50% 18% 42% -1 0 1.00 21% 1.1 .24 12% .28 82% .23
Dec
31		 Appalachian St. C A+ F A+ A 33% 21% 46% D+ A- D F F+ B- A+ F B- F F B+ A- D 46% 22% 33% C D F F F C+ F B- F
1.10 71% 18% 42% +5 0 1.12 25% 0.7 .18 12% .38 59% .22 1.22 71% 30% 27% +1 0 1.04 42% 1.5 .65 17% .51 61% .31
Jan
3		 Georgia Southern D- D F F F 38% 28% 34% F F F+ B D A+ C- B+ C+ D- D- C C- F 46% 21% 32% B D- D C D+ D+ F F F
1.06 52% 28% 27% -9 -1 0.83 27% 1.2 .31 11% .35 80% .28 1.15 62% 42% 33% +2 0 1.07 32% 1.1 .34 14% .43 80% .34
Jan
8		 Coastal Carolina C- F+ B C+ C- 40% 29% 31% B- C- B+ C- B F F+ F F B C+ A+ D A- 33% 25% 42% D B+ A F B- D+ D D- D-
1.02 45% 44% 35% -3 -1 0.95 34% 1.0 .34 17% .23 38% .09 0.96 53% 8% 36% -8 -1 0.85 18% 1.1 .21 15% .31 78% .24
Jan
10		 James Madison D- F C C+ F+ 33% 30% 37% F+ F F B- D- B D+ C- D B+ F B A+ D 52% 23% 25% C- D C+ A+ A- A+ F F F
1.00 33% 38% 35% -8 -2 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 10% .32 70% .23 1.01 78% 30% 18% +3 +1 1.09 28% 0.8 .21 23% .47 80% .38
Jan
15		 Georgia Southern B- D+ C- A+ A- 40% 15% 45% C- A- D+ D- D B+ F F F F C F+ F F 44% 12% 44% C- F D- A- C C F B F
1.18 55% 38% 48% +8 +1 1.20 33% 0.9 .31 15% .25 67% .17 1.22 55% 50% 45% +7 +2 1.20 32% 0.9 .29 15% .47 68% .32
Jan
17		 Appalachian St. B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 27% 49% F+ A+ F A+ D+ D+ A+ F A- D+ D- A+ A+ C+ 53% 10% 37% F C B- F F+ F F B- F+
1.16 64% 50% 45% +13 -2 1.24 18% 1.4 .25 15% .42 61% .26 1.12 65% 20% 22% -4 +2 0.98 27% 1.5 .41 11% .43 60% .26
Jan
21		 Troy F B C F D- 39% 31% 30% D D- F F F B A C+ A- B- A+ F A+ A+ 43% 18% 39% B A+ B+ F D C- F F F
0.94 63% 42% 17% -5 -1 0.90 17% 0.9 .14 15% .36 72% .26 1.02 38% 60% 18% -14 +1 0.75 29% 1.3 .38 16% .50 85% .42
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Arkansas St. C- C- C+ D+ C- 32% 31% 37% D- D+ F A+ C- B F A- F+ A F A+ B- B- 32% 19% 49% B B- A+ B A C+ B- A+ B+
1.04 58% 39% 32% -1 -2 0.97 14% 1.8 .25 12% .22 79% .17 0.98 71% 10% 31% -4 0 0.94 28% 0.9 .26 21% .30 65% .19
Jan
31		 Texas St. F+ C F F F 41% 14% 45% C F B F+ C D A- A+ A+ D- D+ B- F F+ 39% 33% 27% B D C A B F F D F
0.93 60% 14% 23% -10 +1 0.84 33% 0.8 .27 20% .40 82% .33 1.17 60% 35% 43% +4 -2 1.06 32% 0.7 .24 12% .41 80% .33
Feb
4		 Louisiana Monroe F+ C F F F 38% 20% 42% D+ F D- C+ D B A+ D A+ F F F A+ D- 40% 27% 33% B- D F A+ C+ C+ F F+ F
1.08 62% 27% 26% -6 0 0.91 31% 1.2 .36 14% .46 66% .30 1.16 68% 54% 19% +1 -1 1.02 47% 0.4 .21 18% .60 78% .46
Feb
7		 Ohio B- A+ F A+ C 34% 45% 21% F D+ C- B+ C+ A+ C- A+ B D+ F B- B- D- 30% 24% 46% B- D C+ C- C+ F+ B+ B B+
1.20 78% 17% 45% +1 -3 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 9% .31 89% .27 1.11 80% 42% 30% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.0 .26 12% .26 67% .18
Feb
11		 Marshall C- B+ A- C- B 32% 36% 32% F+ C+ F A+ C A F F F D+ F+ C+ F F 38% 25% 36% D+ F A+ A+ A+ D- D+ A C+
1.12 67% 45% 33% +5 -2 1.07 21% 1.6 .32 13% .21 62% .13 1.15 71% 36% 50% +13 -1 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 14% .28 65% .18
Feb
14		 Georgia St. B A B+ A A 37% 30% 33% F+ A- B+ A+ A+ D C+ F D+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 23% 44% 33% A+ A+ F+ C D- F D+ D- D
1.21 71% 43% 40% +9 -1 1.17 41% 1.4 .56 19% .30 63% .19 0.85 33% 17% 18% -23 -4 0.48 33% 1.1 .35 12% .32 83% .27
Feb
16		 Louisiana B+ A+ C+ B+ A 51% 28% 21% D A- F C- F A+ B+ A A D- D B+ D- C- 20% 55% 25% A+ B- F C D- F F C- F
1.25 75% 38% 40% +11 0 1.23 16% 1.0 .16 12% .44 81% .36 1.08 60% 32% 38% -1 -6 0.88 36% 0.9 .31 12% .43 72% .31



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 2.3 7th
8th 4.0 3.1 7.1 8th
9th 15.1 0.5 15.6 9th
10th 5.9 7.7 13.6 10th
11th 20.2 1.1 21.3 11th
12th 10.3 15.0 0.0 25.3 12th
13th 13.0 1.6 14.7 13th
14th 14th
Total 23.3 42.7 27.9 6.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 6.1% 1.2% 1.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.0
8-10 27.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 27.8
7-11 42.7% 42.7
6-12 23.3% 23.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 81.5% 15.8 18.5 63.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 23.3%