Old Dominion
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #242
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #309
Pace 70.7 #150
Improvement +0.1 #186

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #231 D+ C+ D C D
Defense #254 C D+ D+ D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #289 1.12 #233 -3.3 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #72 0.63 #314 +0.6 #141
Three Pointers 40% #214 1.06 #117 +0.3 #173
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #239 -2.4 #239
Freethrows 17.6 #171 75% #99 13.3 #141
Second Chance 26.0% #303 1.02 #211 0.26 #285
Turnovers 16.5% #171
Total Offense -2.3 #231

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #17 1.27 #296 -7.0 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #210 0.72 #155 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 34% #331 0.80 #12 +7.1 #5
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #149 +0.8 #149
Freethrows 18.7 #254 73% #200 13.6 #260
Second Chance 31.0% #190 1.13 #280 0.35 #258
Turnovers 13.9% #325
Total Defense -2.4 #254

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #306 1.5% #302
Shot Type Make % Effect -2.6% #210 -3% #130
Possession Length 16.9 #149 17.0 #160
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #224 0.21 #286
Improvement +0.0 #191 +0.1 #179

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.4% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 3.0% 4.7% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 39.2% 51.3% 24.1%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.9% 4.2%
First Four0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
First Round1.4% 2.0% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 60 - 8
Quad 32 - 62 - 14
Quad 48 - 610 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 103 @Miami (OH) L 72-87 12%     2.7   0 - 1 -6.9 -3.9 -2.0
  Tue, Nov 11 261 Norfolk St. W 60-57 65%     0.7   1 - 1 -5.8 -4.5 -0.8
  Sat, Nov 15 67 @George Washington L 73-96 8%     -10.6   1 - 2 -11.8 -2.0 -8.8
  Tue, Nov 18 99 @Xavier L 69-99 11%     -19.7   1 - 3 -21.6 -3.1 -16.7
  Fri, Nov 21 360 Morgan St. W 88-56 90%     18.3   2 - 3 +13.5 +9.6 +5.5
  Sun, Nov 23 269 @Drexel L 71-75 44%     -1.4   2 - 4 -7.1 +2.0 -9.3
  Tue, Nov 25 34 @Villanova L 75-89 3%     -6.3   2 - 5 +2.6 +14.3 -12.5
  Sun, Nov 30 112 @William & Mary L 75-88 14%     -7.0   2 - 6 -6.3 -2.9 -1.9
  Sat, Dec 6 123 @Richmond L 77-86 17%     -3.6   2 - 7 -3.5 +0.8 -3.6
  Sat, Dec 13 98 @George Mason L 61-73 11%     -10.3   2 - 8 -3.5 -10.2 +6.9
  Wed, Dec 17 205 James Madison W 77-68 55%     6.2   3 - 8 1 - 0 +3.0 +1.7 +1.7
  Sat, Dec 20 238 Coastal Carolina L 74-76 61%     -1.3   3 - 9 1 - 1 -9.6 -2.8 -6.7
  Sun, Dec 28 95 @Maryland L 58-73 11%     -18.0   3 - 10 -6.1 -8.3 +1.8
  Wed, Dec 31 218 Appalachian St. L 73-81 57%     -13.2   3 - 11 1 - 2 -14.5 +2.6 -17.5
  Sat, Jan 3 213 Georgia Southern W 80-78 55%    
  Thu, Jan 8 238 @Coastal Carolina L 72-75 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 205 @James Madison L 72-77 33%    
  Thu, Jan 15 213 @Georgia Southern L 77-81 34%    
  Sat, Jan 17 218 @Appalachian St. L 66-70 34%    
  Wed, Jan 21 131 Troy L 73-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 303 Louisiana W 70-63 73%    
  Wed, Jan 28 133 @Arkansas St. L 76-86 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 267 @Texas St. L 71-73 44%    
  Wed, Feb 4 355 Louisiana Monroe W 84-72 87%    
  Wed, Feb 11 173 Marshall L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 315 Georgia St. W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 203 @Southern Miss L 72-77 33%    
  Tue, Feb 24 173 @Marshall L 73-80 26%    
  Fri, Feb 27 315 @Georgia St. W 75-73 56%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 2.0 0.1 6.8 5th
6th 0.3 3.7 4.3 0.5 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 6.1 1.5 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 6.1 3.7 0.2 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 4.4 6.4 0.9 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.3 2.8 7.0 2.4 0.1 12.5 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 6.0 3.6 0.3 11.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.1 3.7 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.9 12th
13th 0.2 1.0 2.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 14th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.9 7.6 13.0 16.5 17.9 15.4 11.5 7.0 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 68.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 51.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
13-5 16.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.5% 24.4% 24.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.4% 14.7% 14.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.2
12-6 3.3% 8.8% 8.8% 15.5 0.2 0.1 3.0
11-7 7.0% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.1 0.3 6.7
10-8 11.5% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 11.2
9-9 15.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 15.1
8-10 17.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 17.8
7-11 16.5% 16.5
6-12 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
5-13 7.6% 7.6
4-14 3.9% 3.9
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 98.3 0.0%