Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#196
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#141
Pace69.8#161
Improvement+0.3#171

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#246
First Shot-4.5#301
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#90
Layup/Dunks+0.8#155
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#317
Freethrows-0.2#193
Improvement-0.3#209

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#128
First Shot+1.4#130
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#193
Layups/Dunks+5.7#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#318
Freethrows-2.0#293
Improvement+0.5#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 12.4% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 55.4% 68.3% 42.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.0% 83.0% 73.2%
Conference Champion 13.1% 16.4% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 1.1% 2.2%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round10.1% 12.3% 7.9%
Second Round0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Away) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 9
Quad 410 - 514 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 206   @ South Alabama W 74-70 41%     1 - 0 +4.9 +4.8 +0.3
  Nov 07, 2024 327   Stony Brook L 72-73 84%     1 - 1 -13.3 -5.3 -8.1
  Nov 11, 2024 12   @ Marquette L 62-70 4%     1 - 2 +10.4 -4.6 +15.5
  Nov 13, 2024 82   @ George Mason W 70-69 15%     2 - 2 +10.5 +4.5 +6.1
  Nov 25, 2024 112   @ Minnesota L 65-68 22%     2 - 3 +3.5 +1.3 +2.0
  Dec 14, 2024 247   @ Valparaiso W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 17, 2024 15   Mississippi St. L 64-81 6%    
  Dec 21, 2024 23   @ Arizona L 67-86 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 157   Ohio W 75-74 54%    
  Jan 07, 2025 131   @ Akron L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 11, 2025 203   @ Toledo L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 14, 2025 299   Eastern Michigan W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 338   @ Northern Illinois W 73-67 71%    
  Jan 21, 2025 270   Ball St. W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 271   Western Michigan W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 28, 2025 331   @ Buffalo W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 267   Bowling Green W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 04, 2025 198   Miami (OH) W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 11, 2025 110   @ Kent St. L 60-68 24%    
  Feb 15, 2025 131   Akron L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 18, 2025 157   @ Ohio L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 271   @ Western Michigan W 72-70 55%    
  Feb 25, 2025 331   Buffalo W 78-67 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 299   @ Eastern Michigan W 70-67 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 270   @ Ball St. W 68-67 55%    
  Mar 07, 2025 338   Northern Illinois W 76-64 85%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.7 3.8 2.4 0.9 0.1 13.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.8 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.8 6.1 3.0 0.6 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 6.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 5.9 8.6 10.5 12.8 13.6 13.0 11.0 8.4 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 98.9% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 93.5% 2.4    2.0 0.4 0.0
15-3 74.0% 3.8    2.4 1.3 0.1
14-4 43.9% 3.7    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1
13-5 16.5% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.1% 13.1 7.4 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 49.3% 46.6% 2.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.1%
17-1 0.9% 40.5% 40.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.6% 31.3% 31.3% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8
15-3 5.1% 27.6% 27.6% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.7
14-4 8.4% 19.8% 19.8% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 6.7
13-5 11.0% 16.4% 16.4% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 9.2
12-6 13.0% 11.2% 11.2% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 11.5
11-7 13.6% 9.2% 9.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.1 12.4
10-8 12.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 12.0
9-9 10.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.1
8-10 8.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.4
7-11 5.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.9
6-12 3.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 2.1% 2.1
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.9 2.7 2.3 0.8 89.8 0.0%