Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.1 #326
Expected Predictive Rating -13.6 #338
Pace 67.4 #234
Improvement -1.2 #252

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #310 D D+ D+ C- D
Defense #324 C- D+ F C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #162 1.15 #199 +0.0 #177
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #45 0.79 #130 +3.6 #38
Three Pointers 33% #330 0.79 #360 -7.9 #353
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #299 -4.4 #296
Freethrows 15.6 #275 72% #193 11.3 #262
Second Chance 26.2% #299 1.07 #151 0.28 #263
Turnovers 17.3% #223
Total Offense -5.2 #310

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #59 1.20 #226 -3.7 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #276 0.70 #119 +1.7 #68
Three Pointers 39% #228 1.05 #232 +0.2 #179
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #242 -1.8 #239
Freethrows 20.3 #319 68% #38 13.9 #97
Second Chance 35.8% #334 1.32 #362 0.47 #361
Turnovers 15.9% #224
Total Defense -4.9 #324

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #294 1.6% #312
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.9% #283 2.0% #215
Possession Length 18.6 #315 16.9 #126
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #194 0.21 #305
Improvement -2.2 #315 +1.0 #118

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.7% 2.2% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 44.8% 27.5% 49.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 81 - 14
Quad 45 - 96 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 222 Appalachian St. W 82-66 36%     12.1   1 - 0 +9.5 +13.6 -2.8
  Sat, Nov 8 121 @Bradley L 54-85 8%     -14.1   1 - 1 -25.3 -14.2 -11.7
  Thu, Nov 13 194 South Alabama L 64-66 23%     -3.4   1 - 2 -4.2 -0.2 -4.2
  Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82-59 83%     13.3   2 - 2 +2.9 +0.5 +2.1
  Thu, Nov 20 198 Northern Kentucky L 66-90 33%     -12.6   2 - 3 -29.4 -7.7 -22.3
  Sat, Nov 22 107 @Marquette L 71-85 6%     -4.7   2 - 4 -6.6 +1.8 -8.1
  Tue, Dec 2 235 @Loyola Chicago L 72-83 20%     -1.9   2 - 5 -12.3 +1.2 -14.1
  Sun, Dec 7 35 @Saint Louis L 65-107 2%     -22.8   2 - 6 -25.6 -0.4 -25.6
  Sat, Dec 13 258 @Stony Brook L 55-78 24%     -16.4   2 - 7 -25.7 -13.4 -14.4
  Sat, Dec 20 328 @Northern Illinois L 73-74 39%     10.1   2 - 8 0 - 1 -8.2 +1.4 -9.7
  Mon, Dec 22 44 @Wisconsin L 61-88 2%     -14.7   2 - 9 -12.2 -1.8 -11.5
  Tue, Dec 30 173 Ohio L 64-80 28%     -4.5   2 - 10 0 - 2 -20.0 -16.5 -2.0
  Sat, Jan 3 172 Toledo L 75-78 28%     5.0   2 - 11 0 - 3 -6.9 -1.8 -5.1
  Tue, Jan 6 68 @Akron L 69-82 3%     -9.7   2 - 12 0 - 4 -1.6 -3.5 +2.2
  Sat, Jan 10 139 Kent St. L 75-83 22%    
  Tue, Jan 13 100 @Miami (OH) L 68-86 4%    
  Tue, Jan 20 318 Ball St. W 70-68 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 271 @Western Michigan L 71-78 26%    
  Tue, Jan 27 196 Eastern Michigan L 67-72 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 127 Bowling Green L 69-78 20%    
  Tue, Feb 3 169 @Massachusetts L 70-82 13%    
  Sat, Feb 7 315 @Louisiana L 63-67 35%    
  Sat, Feb 14 328 Northern Illinois W 74-71 61%    
  Tue, Feb 17 196 @Eastern Michigan L 64-75 16%    
  Sat, Feb 21 271 Western Michigan L 74-75 47%    
  Tue, Feb 24 139 @Kent St. L 72-86 10%    
  Sat, Feb 28 182 @Buffalo L 68-80 14%    
  Tue, Mar 3 68 Akron L 73-89 8%    
  Fri, Mar 6 318 @Ball St. L 67-71 37%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.2 2.3 6.4 4.8 0.8 0.0 14.4 10th
11th 0.1 3.2 9.4 6.4 1.2 0.0 20.3 11th
12th 0.3 4.6 12.0 7.7 1.4 0.1 25.9 12th
13th 2.1 8.3 11.4 6.3 1.1 0.1 29.3 13th
Total 2.1 8.6 16.0 21.7 20.5 15.1 9.3 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.2
9-9 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 1.9% 1.9
7-11 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
6-12 9.3% 9.3
5-13 15.1% 15.1
4-14 20.5% 20.5
3-15 21.7% 21.7
2-16 16.0% 16.0
1-17 8.6% 8.6
0-18 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.5%