Stanford
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.7 #82
Expected Predictive Rating +8.8 #67
Pace 68.3 #192
Improvement -2.7 #299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #93 C+ C+ B- B- A-
Defense #80 B- C+ B D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #33 1.11 #230 +2.6 #95
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #350 0.75 #179 -4.2 #350
Three Pointers 46% #79 1.08 #81 +4.0 #53
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #108 +2.4 #109
Freethrows 0.34 #85 72% #178 0.25 #94
Second Chance 35.5% #54 0.96 #275 0.34 #111
Turnovers 15.1% #74
Total Offense +3.3 #93

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #178 1.11 #114 +0.8 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #33 0.73 #139 -2.0 #326
Three Pointers 35% #337 0.96 #93 +4.3 #29
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #78 +3.1 #78
Freethrows 0.34 #286 75% #322 0.26 #306
Second Chance 26.5% #49 1.08 #269 0.29 #109
Turnovers 19.4% #54
Total Defense +3.4 #80

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.7% #13 -1.5% #59
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #159 -4.6% #88
Possession Length 17.0 #145 17.5 #234
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #115 0.12 #31
Improvement -1.2 #251 -1.5 #274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 8.0% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.4% 7.9% 2.4%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 10.6
.500 or above 92.2% 97.0% 79.4%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 9.9% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 2.0% 15.9%
First Four4.0% 4.9% 1.6%
First Round3.8% 4.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 73.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 6
Quad 23 - 48 - 11
Quad 35 - 313 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 140 Portland St. W 89 - 79 79% +6  1 - 0 +8 +8 B B+ D+ -1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 171 Montana W 91 - 68 84% +11  2 - 0 +19 +12 B- C A+ +6 A D- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 157 Montana St. W 77 - 68 82% +4  3 - 0 +6 -2 D B- C+ +7 C+ B A
 Tue, Nov 18 295 Louisiana W 93 - 66 94% +12  4 - 0 +16 +15 B+ C- A- +1 D B- B-
 Fri, Nov 21 131 Seattle L 69 - 77 78% +2  4 - 1 -9 -1 D C A+ -8 C+ D B
 Thu, Nov 27 66 Minnesota W 72 - 68 44% +1  5 - 1 +12 +10 D A+ A+ +3 D+ F A+
 Fri, Nov 28 25 Saint Louis W 78 - 77 18% -6  6 - 1 +17 +10 B C+ B +7 A+ D D+
 Mon, Dec 1 205 Portland W 94 - 72 87% +14  7 - 1 +16 +20 A- A+ A+ -3 D C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 130 UNLV L 74 - 75 77% +2  7 - 2 -2 -3 F A+ D- +1 B B B-
 Sat, Dec 13 238 @San Jose St. W 86 - 82 79% +8  8 - 2 +2 +11 A+ A+ F -9 C F F
 Wed, Dec 17 165 Texas Arlington W 76 - 60 83% +12  9 - 2 +13 +7 A- B- C- +6 C A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 77 Colorado W 77 - 68 46% +3  10 - 2 +17 +5 D+ B+ B+ +12 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 27 191 Cal St. Northridge W 88 - 80 86% +1  11 - 2 +3 +7 A+ F C- -4 D+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 30 81 Notre Dame L 40 - 47 61% -5  11 - 3 0 - 1 -3 -23 F F A +18 A+ B- A-
 Fri, Jan 2 16 Louisville W 80 - 76 22% +3  12 - 3 1 - 1 +19 +21 A A+ A- -2 A+ D- B
 Wed, Jan 7 58 @Virginia Tech W 69 - 68 30% -5  13 - 3 2 - 1 +13 +14 A- B A+ -0 B A C
 Sat, Jan 10 22 @Virginia L 55 - 70 12% -9  13 - 4 2 - 2 +5 -4 C F F+ +7 A B+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 29 North Carolina W 95 - 90 30% -5  14 - 4 3 - 2 +17 +22 A+ F A- -5 C- D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 3 Duke L 50 - 80 10% -15  14 - 5 3 - 3 -9 -7 D A- F -6 B F C
 Sat, Jan 24 65 California L 66 - 78 54% -1  14 - 6 3 - 4 -6 -5 F D- A+ -1 B C+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 40 @Miami (FL) L 70 - 79 20% -1  14 - 7 3 - 5 +7 +8 B- A- D+ -1 C+ B D
 Sat, Jan 31 100 @Florida St. L 80 - 88 46% -7  14 - 8 3 - 6 -0 +12 B+ C A- -12 F F+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 37 Clemson L 64 - 66 34% -1  14 - 9 3 - 7 +9 +7 B- D+ A+ +1 B C A-
 Sat, Feb 7 113 Georgia Tech W 79 - 72 73%
 Wed, Feb 11 125 @Boston College W 69 - 67 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 75 @Wake Forest L 74 - 78 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 65 @California L 71 - 76 33%
 Wed, Feb 25 94 Pittsburgh W 73 - 69 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 39 SMU L 76 - 80 36%
 Wed, Mar 4 81 @Notre Dame L 70 - 73 38%
 Sat, Mar 7 23 @North Carolina St. L 71 - 84 11%
Totals 17 - 14 6 - 12 +7 +3 C+ C+ B- +3 B- C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.3 7th
8th 0.8 2.2 0.5 3.5 8th
9th 0.4 4.2 2.2 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.1 4.1 6.8 0.8 0.0 11.7 10th
11th 2.2 12.1 3.4 0.1 17.7 11th
12th 0.2 8.4 7.4 0.3 16.3 12th
13th 2.1 10.6 1.7 0.0 14.4 13th
14th 0.1 5.6 4.7 0.1 10.5 14th
15th 0.9 6.5 0.7 8.1 15th
16th 2.8 2.2 0.0 5.1 16th
17th 0.3 2.4 0.2 2.9 17th
18th 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.3 18th
Total 1.1 6.7 16.9 26.5 25.8 15.5 5.9 1.5 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 1.5% 62.9% 62.9% 9.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.6 62.9%
9-9 5.9% 37.1% 0.2% 36.9% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.0 3.7 37.0%
8-10 15.5% 14.8% 0.1% 14.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.8 0.1 13.2 14.7%
7-11 25.8% 3.1% 0.1% 3.0% 11.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 25.0 3.0%
6-12 26.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 11.0 0.1 26.4 0.5%
5-13 16.9% 16.9
4-14 6.7% 6.7
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.5% 0.1% 6.4% 10.5 93.5 6.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%