Stanford
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.7 75
Expected Predictive Rating +9.1 62
Pace 68.3 189
Improvement -2.1 269

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 93 B- C+ B- B- A-
Defense B 66 B C+ B D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 39 C 57% 180 +3.0 81
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 349 C- 37% 220 -4.2 352
Three Pointers 46% 74 B 37% 77 +4.4 45
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 13 C+ +1.3 124
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 85
Second Chance B 34.8% 61 C- 0.98 258 C+ 0.34 109
Turnovers B- 15.4% 89
Freethrows B- 0.33 107 C+ 73% 164 B- 0.24 111
Total Offense B- +3.5 93

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 38% 321 B 8.1% 40
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 20% 247 F+ 9.4% 348
Three Pointers D+ 81% 263 C- 1.0% 218
Total C- 52% 257 B- 5.0% 108

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 156 B- 55% 106 -0.6 150
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 34 C+ 37% 146 +2.0 327
Three Pointers 34% 344 B 31% 58 -5.0 14
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.7 68 B- -2.9 67
1st FG Attempt B 0.95 59
Second Chance B 26.2% 46 D+ 1.10 282 C+ 0.29 107
Turnovers B 19.2% 51
Freethrows D+ 0.34 283 D- 76% 337 D 0.25 309
Total Defense B +4.1 66

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 9 C 11.4% 154
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 25 B 7.6% 51
Three Pointers B+ 77% 263 B 1.7% 218
Total A 42% 6 B- 7.1% 69

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.1 142 17.7 250
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 101 0.11 30
Improvement -1.7 #272 -0.4 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 14% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8% 14% 4%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 10.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 8% 18% 2%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four5% 8% 3%
First Round4% 8% 2%
Second Round1% 2% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 37.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 24 - 48 - 11
Quad 35 - 313 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 144 Portland St. W 89 - 79 82% +6  88% 1 - 0 B- +8 B- +5 B B+ D- C+ +2 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 176 Montana W 91 - 68 86% +11  99% 2 - 0 A +19 B+ +9 B- C A+ A +9 A D- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 147 Montana St. W 77 - 68 83% +4  81% 3 - 0 B- +7 D+ -4 D B- C A +10 C+ B- A
 Tue, Nov 18 296 Louisiana W 93 - 66 95% +12  86% 4 - 0 A- +16 A +12 B+ C- A- B +4 D+ B B
 Fri, Nov 21 126 Seattle L 69 - 77 78% +2  53% 4 - 1 D -9 D+ -2 D+ C A- D -6 C+ D B+
 Thu, Nov 27 66 Minnesota W 72 - 68 47% +1  62% 5 - 1 B+ +13 B+ +8 D- A+ A+ B +5 D+ F A
 Fri, Nov 28 23 Saint Louis W 78 - 77 21% -6  15% 6 - 1 A- +17 B+ +8 B- B- B A +9 A+ D- C-
 Mon, Dec 1 221 Portland W 94 - 72 90% +14  90% 7 - 1 A- +16 A+ +17 A- A+ A+ C -1 D- C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 125 UNLV L 74 - 75 78% +2  63% 7 - 2 C -1 D- -7 F A+ F B+ +5 B A- B+
 Sat, Dec 13 223 @San Jose St. W 86 - 82 78% +8  99% 8 - 2 C+ +4 A- +10 A+ A+ F D -6 C F F+
 Wed, Dec 17 183 Texas Arlington W 76 - 60 87% +12  93% 9 - 2 B+ +12 B- +4 B+ C+ C- A- +8 C+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 73 Colorado W 77 - 68 49% +3  52% 10 - 2 A- +17 C+ +3 D+ B A- A+ +14 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Dec 27 166 Cal St. Northridge W 88 - 80 85% +1  50% 11 - 2 C+ +5 B- +5 A+ F D+ C -1 C- A+ B
 Tue, Dec 30 83 Notre Dame L 40 - 47 64% -5  14% 11 - 3 0 - 1 C- -3 F -26 F F A A+ +21 A+ B- A-
 Fri, Jan 2 12 Louisville W 80 - 76 21% +3  73% 12 - 3 1 - 1 A +20 A+ +19 A A+ A- B- +2 A+ D- B+
 Wed, Jan 7 57 @Virginia Tech W 69 - 68 33% -5  9% 13 - 3 2 - 1 B+ +13 A- +11 A- B A B- +2 B A C
 Sat, Jan 10 22 @Virginia L 55 - 70 12% -9  9% 13 - 4 2 - 2 B- +5 D+ -4 C F D- A- +8 A- B D+
 Wed, Jan 14 31 North Carolina W 95 - 90 35% -5  4% 14 - 4 3 - 2 A- +17 A+ +20 A+ F A- D+ -3 D+ D- B
 Sat, Jan 17 2 Duke L 50 - 80 11% -15  0% 14 - 5 3 - 3 D -9 F+ -9 D A F D+ -3 B F C
 Sat, Jan 24 71 California L 66 - 78 60% -1  39% 14 - 6 3 - 4 D+ -7 F+ -9 F F+ A+ B- +2 B C+ C-
 Wed, Jan 28 40 @Miami (FL) L 70 - 79 21% -1  35% 14 - 7 3 - 5 B- +7 B +6 B- A D+ C+ +1 C+ B D
 Sat, Jan 31 85 @Florida St. L 80 - 88 42% -7  21% 14 - 8 3 - 6 C+ +2 A- +10 A- C A- F+ -8 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 38 Clemson L 64 - 66 39% -1  26% 14 - 9 3 - 7 B +9 B- +4 B- C- A+ B +4 B C A
 Sat, Feb 7 141 Georgia Tech W 95 - 72 82% +7  90% 15 - 9 4 - 7 A +21 A+ +17 A+ A+ C- B +4 A D C
 Wed, Feb 11 137 @Boston College W 70 - 64 62% +4  74% 16 - 9 5 - 7 B +11 C+ +2 A- C- C- A +9 B B+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 60 @Wake Forest L 63 - 68 33% +3  82% 16 - 10 5 - 8 B- +7 C -0 B+ F B+ A- +7 A B B-
 Sat, Feb 21 71 @California L 73 - 76 37%
 Wed, Feb 25 101 Pittsburgh W 73 - 67 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 32 SMU L 77 - 81 36%
 Wed, Mar 4 83 @Notre Dame L 71 - 73 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 24 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 83 15%
Totals 18 - 13 7 - 11 +8 B- +4 A+ C+ A- B +4 B C+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C C- B C+ 44% 18% 46% A- B- B C- C+ B- B- C+ B- B B- C+ B B- 39% 26% 34% B- B B D+ C+ B D+ D- D
1.14 57% 37% 37% +1 +2 1.08 35% 1.0 .34 15% .33 73% .24 1.03 55% 37% 31% -3 -1 0.95 26% 1.1 .29 19% .34 76% .25
Nov
4		 Portland St. B- C- F B B- 58% 8% 34% A+ B C+ A B+ D- A+ A- A+ C+ D+ B+ F F 33% 19% 48% B F A A+ A+ A+ B D- C+
1.11 55% 25% 35% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.2 .38 21% .57 81% .46 0.98 61% 30% 50% +11 0 1.24 24% 0.0 .00 26% .27 75% .20
Nov
8		 Montana B+ D- A+ B- C 52% 12% 35% A B- B D- C A+ F F F A A- F A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% C- A B+ F D- A+ C- F F
1.22 53% 50% 35% -1 +2 1.05 34% 0.9 .30 7% .22 60% .13 0.91 50% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.91 18% 1.8 .32 27% .31 94% .29
Nov
12		 Montana St. D+ C+ F F D- 48% 17% 35% B- D D A+ B- C A- C B+ A B F B C+ 30% 28% 42% B- C+ A+ F B- A B A+ A
1.03 58% 22% 26% -7 +1 0.91 25% 1.4 .36 16% .34 76% .26 0.91 50% 53% 32% +1 -2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 21% .22 54% .12
Nov
18		 Louisiana A A+ D+ C A- 29% 13% 58% D+ B+ C+ D- C- A- A+ A- A+ B D+ F A+ C- 48% 34% 18% F+ D+ A D- B B F+ A+ C-
1.30 86% 33% 36% +9 0 1.21 34% 0.9 .31 14% .57 80% .46 0.93 58% 47% 22% 0 -1 1.00 18% 1.0 .18 20% .30 59% .17
Nov
21		 Seattle D+ D- C F F+ 52% 10% 38% A D+ C+ D+ C A- A+ F+ A- D F+ A+ F+ C- 39% 31% 31% A C+ B- F D B+ F F F
0.95 46% 40% 26% -10 +2 0.86 33% 0.9 .28 17% .41 64% .26 1.06 68% 20% 40% +1 -1 1.02 23% 1.2 .27 21% .42 83% .35
Nov
27		 Minnesota B+ F A+ F F 47% 10% 43% A+ D- A+ A A+ A+ A- B+ A B A- B- F D 33% 15% 51% B- D+ A F F A C- D C-
1.12 46% 60% 23% -11 +2 0.84 47% 1.1 .50 12% .32 78% .25 1.06 54% 33% 45% +6 0 1.15 24% 1.8 .44 22% .36 72% .26
Nov
28		 Saint Louis B+ F F A+ C 47% 7% 45% A+ B- B C B- B A- D+ B A A+ A+ A+ A+ 53% 10% 37% C A+ C- F+ D- C- F F F
1.08 31% 0% 48% -6 +2 0.95 30% 0.8 .26 14% .38 71% .27 1.06 44% 20% 26% -13 +2 0.80 34% 1.2 .42 15% .46 93% .42
Dec
1		 Portland A+ C F A B+ 44% 4% 53% A A- C+ A+ A+ A+ B- D+ C+ C F+ C+ F F 38% 33% 29% A+ D- B- D C A+ F F+ F
1.35 58% 0% 41% +5 +3 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 12% .33 70% .23 1.04 69% 36% 42% +7 -2 1.12 27% 1.3 .35 26% .47 79% .37
Dec
7		 UNLV D- F C F F 33% 16% 51% C F A+ A A+ F A+ F B B+ C C C+ B- 46% 37% 17% A B B- A A- B+ F A+ D+
1.02 38% 38% 24% -14 0 0.73 48% 1.3 .62 22% .48 63% .30 1.04 58% 42% 33% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.7 .21 19% .46 59% .27
Dec
13		 San Jose St. A- A F A+ A+ 49% 5% 46% A A+ A+ C A+ F A+ D+ A+ D F C- B D+ 26% 43% 30% A+ C C F F F+ D F F
1.24 72% 0% 53% +18 +3 1.43 60% 1.2 .70 29% .59 72% .43 1.19 71% 39% 31% +3 -4 1.00 33% 1.5 .48 12% .33 90% .29
Dec
17		 Texas Arlington B- A- F C- B 57% 14% 30% A+ B+ C- A- C+ C- A+ A- A+ A- C+ B+ B- C 46% 22% 32% C+ C+ A+ A A+ C F B F
1.13 68% 17% 31% +1 +2 1.09 27% 1.3 .35 18% .58 78% .45 0.89 53% 33% 31% -5 0 0.93 14% 0.8 .10 21% .54 69% .37
Dec
20		 Colorado C+ F A D+ D- 50% 14% 36% A D+ A D B A- A+ D A+ A+ F+ D- A+ A- 41% 27% 33% B A- A+ F C+ A+ A F B-
1.09 45% 50% 31% -6 +2 0.93 36% 1.0 .36 13% .67 68% .46 0.97 70% 46% 19% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.3 .30 26% .25 92% .23
Dec
27		 Cal St. Northridge B- B- D A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% A A+ D+ F F D+ A+ D A+ C B B+ F D+ 44% 21% 35% B C- A+ A- A+ B F F F
1.17 61% 33% 44% +9 +2 1.24 24% 0.5 .12 17% .61 71% .43 1.06 52% 30% 47% +3 0 1.08 17% 0.8 .13 20% .50 80% .40
Dec
30		 Notre Dame F F F F F 44% 4% 52% A+ F C F F A D- A C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 21% 30% F+ A+ D- A B- A- C+ A+ B+
0.69 43% 0% 16% -22 +3 0.63 24% 0.4 .10 10% .23 83% .19 0.81 43% 0% 23% -20 +1 0.63 38% 0.8 .29 21% .30 57% .17
Jan
2		 Louisville A+ C+ C- A+ A 36% 27% 36% C+ A A+ A- A+ A- A+ D A+ B- D- F A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% A A+ F A D- B+ F F F
1.25 56% 33% 44% +3 -1 1.07 40% 1.1 .43 14% .57 68% .38 1.19 71% 57% 23% -1 0 1.00 51% 0.8 .43 19% .41 86% .35
Jan
7		 Virginia Tech A- C A B- B+ 41% 9% 50% A A- C+ A- B A D- A- D B- C- B- C- B- 28% 30% 43% A+ B F A+ A C F C- F
1.15 58% 50% 35% +2 +2 1.09 31% 1.2 .38 13% .17 78% .13 1.13 64% 33% 35% +1 -2 1.00 40% 0.6 .26 15% .49 76% .37
Jan
10		 Virginia D+ B+ F F C- 38% 17% 46% A- C B+ F F D- B+ A+ A A- F+ D+ A+ A- 35% 20% 46% B+ A- B+ C+ B D+ C F D
0.87 61% 25% 23% -9 0 0.85 32% 0.2 .05 20% .34 82% .28 1.10 69% 44% 24% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 14% .31 82% .26
Jan
14		 North Carolina A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% A+ A+ F F F A- A+ D- A+ D+ C F C+ D 42% 28% 30% B+ D+ A F D- B F A F
1.30 57% 67% 57% +20 +1 1.45 7% 0.0 .00 11% .35 65% .23 1.23 62% 64% 33% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.6 .45 15% .52 63% .32
Jan
17		 Duke F+ D- B F F+ 40% 11% 49% A D A+ B A F B- F C D+ C+ A+ F+ B+ 60% 16% 23% C B C- F F C F C+ F
0.79 44% 40% 23% -13 +1 0.78 35% 0.8 .30 29% .22 60% .13 1.27 62% 29% 40% +3 +2 1.12 41% 1.5 .63 16% .53 71% .38
Jan
24		 California F+ F F F F 44% 6% 50% A F B F F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C+ A+ F B 24% 29% 47% A- B B- C- C+ C- F+ D+ F+
0.93 39% 0% 23% -19 +2 0.69 33% 0.5 .17 10% .48 77% .37 1.09 58% 21% 43% +2 -2 1.02 25% 1.1 .28 14% .41 80% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Miami (FL) B F F A+ C+ 41% 16% 43% A- B- A C A D+ D- F F C+ C C F C 51% 28% 21% B+ C+ F A+ B D F A F
1.05 43% 25% 45% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.1 .38 21% .19 50% .09 1.18 63% 38% 40% +4 0 1.11 47% 0.7 .34 13% .54 61% .33
Jan
31		 Florida St. A- B+ A- A- A 25% 24% 51% D+ A- B+ F+ C A- F D- F F+ D- F B- F 48% 11% 41% D F A F F C- F F+ F
1.16 64% 46% 39% +8 -1 1.15 36% 0.8 .28 16% .16 67% .10 1.27 68% 80% 32% +8 +2 1.22 24% 2.0 .48 13% .48 79% .38
Feb
4		 Clemson B- C- B D+ C+ 32% 19% 49% B- B- B- F C- A+ F B- F B B A+ F B+ 44% 15% 41% C B A- F C A F D F
1.03 53% 40% 31% -4 0 0.94 26% 0.7 .18 11% .16 78% .13 1.07 56% 17% 41% 0 +1 1.05 23% 1.3 .31 19% .44 77% .34
Feb
7		 Georgia Tech A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 40% 15% 45% B+ A+ A- A+ A+ C- B- A+ A B B+ A- B+ A+ 52% 25% 23% D+ A C+ F D C C+ B+ B-
1.31 71% 38% 42% +10 +1 1.25 38% 1.4 .52 17% .31 89% .28 0.99 52% 29% 31% -7 0 0.89 31% 1.3 .41 18% .29 65% .18
Feb
11		 Boston College C+ A+ F D+ B+ 40% 11% 49% A- A- F A+ C- C- F A F+ A B D A+ B- 38% 33% 29% B B A+ F B+ B A+ F A
1.02 71% 17% 31% +1 +1 1.06 16% 1.4 .23 16% .19 73% .14 0.93 52% 44% 25% -4 -2 0.91 18% 1.3 .24 18% .14 75% .11
Feb
14		 Wake Forest C B+ F+ B+ A- 29% 15% 56% C B+ D- F F B+ D F F+ A- A- F A+ A 34% 24% 41% B+ A A+ F B B- F F F
1.00 64% 29% 37% +3 0 1.08 23% 0.7 .17 17% .27 64% .17 1.08 50% 60% 24% -4 -1 0.93 20% 1.6 .32 16% .60 88% .53



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.2 0.3 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 0.3 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 4.9 4.3 0.1 9.3 9th
10th 1.0 10.3 0.8 12.1 10th
11th 0.0 6.5 6.6 0.0 13.2 11th
12th 0.9 14.7 1.6 17.3 12th
13th 0.1 8.0 11.4 0.1 19.6 13th
14th 2.8 15.3 2.0 20.0 14th
15th 3.8 1.7 0.0 5.5 15th
16th 0.4 0.4 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 7.1 26.0 35.7 23.5 6.9 0.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.8% 56.9% 1.3% 55.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 56.3%
9-9 6.9% 37.4% 0.1% 37.3% 10.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 4.3 37.3%
8-10 23.5% 14.5% 0.0% 14.5% 10.8 0.1 0.6 2.7 0.1 20.1 14.5%
7-11 35.7% 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 34.7 2.9%
6-12 26.0% 0.3% 0.3% 11.1 0.1 0.0 25.9 0.3%
5-13 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 7.1 0.1%
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.6% 0.0% 7.5% 10.6 92.4 7.5%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.0%