Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.8 294
Results Rating -8.8 309
Consistency 0.17 282
Pace 61.4 346
Improvement +4.4 43

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 338 F+ D- C D+ C
Defense C 201 C- D+ B- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 155 F+ 49% 352 -3.0 291
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 203 D 33% 325 -1.2 250
Three Pointers 41% 187 D- 30% 327 -2.7 270
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 178 F+ -6.9 361
1st FG Attempt F+ 0.88 355
Second Chance D 25.7% 308 F+ 0.87 353 D- 0.22 349
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 127
Other Turnovers C- 7.5% 219
Turnovers C 16.4% 160
Freethrows D+ 0.28 259 C- 71% 240 D+ 0.20 269
Total Offense D- -7.1 338

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 277 F+ 15.4% 351
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 101 F+ 9.0% 345
Three Pointers C+ 86% 152 B- 0.5% 88
Total C- 54% 201 F 8.1% 353


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 268 D+ 61% 256 -0.5 157
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 183 C+ 36% 116 -0.4 150
Three Pointers 44% 89 C- 35% 242 +2.3 294
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 138 C- +1.4 239
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 219
Second Chance D 33.5% 308 C 1.02 164 D+ 0.34 265
Turnovers from Steals B- 11.0% 66
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 184
Turnovers B- 18.3% 87
Freethrows C+ 0.28 127 F 79% 363 C 0.22 204
Total Defense C -0.7 201

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 236 D+ 9.0% 250
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 29% 259 C 4.9% 168
Three Pointers C 84% 188 D 0.2% 317
Total C- 59% 251 D+ 4.4% 277

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.3 342 17.5 220
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 354 0.15 119
Consistency 0.16 362 0.12 162
Improvement -0.2 198 +4.6 16

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 308 295 280
Results Rating Rank 318 299 280
Conference Record 5 - 13 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 11 9 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 4% 0% 7%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Western Michigan (Away) - 34.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 80 - 13
Quad 49 - 89 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 303 Louisiana W 75 - 64 64% +2  75% 1 - 0 C -0 C+ +2 A- D+ C+ C- -2 C- D B-
 Tue, Nov 11 26 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 2% -19  0% 1 - 1 D- -13 F -13 F+ D+ F C -1 D- F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 298 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 63% -2  33% 1 - 2 F+ -17 F -17 D- F F C -1 F+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 197 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 21% -2  60% 1 - 3 F+ -17 F -18 F D F C -1 C- C B-
 Fri, Nov 28 179 Monmouth L 73 - 80 27% -4  17% 1 - 4 D -8 C+ +3 B+ F A- F -11 F+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 322 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 48% -4  21% 1 - 5 F -25 F -36 F F F+ A- +8 A+ F+ D-
 Sun, Nov 30 297 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 51% +0  42% 2 - 5 C+ +3 A+ +22 D+ A+ D F -18 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 296 @Evansville L 52 - 64 39% -1  25% 2 - 6 F+ -17 F -23 F F F B+ +6 C+ C A-
 Tue, Dec 9 213 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 43% -0  54% 2 - 7 D -10 F+ -8 F C A- C- -2 D- D+ B-
 Sun, Dec 14 192 @Campbell L 64 - 69 20% +1  46% 2 - 8 C- -4 F -12 F F+ D- A- +8 B+ A C
 Sat, Dec 20 87 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 15% -3  28% 2 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +2 B- F A+ D- -7 D C A
 Sat, Jan 3 212 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 23% -14  1% 2 - 10 0 - 2 D- -13 C- -0 F B C- F -14 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 6 248 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 50% -13  20% 2 - 11 0 - 3 F -30 F -13 F F A- F -21 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 200 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 21% -3  15% 2 - 12 0 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 D+ D- B D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 70 @Akron L 77 - 87 5% -11  0% 2 - 13 0 - 5 C +1 B +6 B- C- A- D+ -5 C- C F
 Fri, Jan 16 219 Ohio W 76 - 71 44% +8  99% 3 - 13 1 - 5 C -1 C +1 C- F+ C+ C- -2 D+ C B
 Tue, Jan 20 258 @Central Michigan W 68 - 67 30% +5  82% 4 - 13 2 - 5 C -2 C+ +3 C- F A+ D+ -5 F C B
 Sat, Jan 24 336 Northern Illinois W 58 - 53 75% +6  97% 5 - 13 3 - 5 D -10 F -12 F+ D- B+ B- +3 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 31 155 @Toledo L 55 - 73 15% -12  2% 5 - 14 3 - 6 F+ -15 F -20 F F D- B +4 C A- A-
 Tue, Feb 3 167 @Bowling Green L 52 - 77 17% -13  0% 5 - 15 3 - 7 F -23 F -14 F D+ B F -11 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 7 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 73 - 68 64% +8  99% 6 - 15 D+ -7 F+ -9 F C F B- +2 A+ F C
 Wed, Feb 11 212 Buffalo L 53 - 63 43% -5  3% 6 - 16 3 - 8 F+ -16 F -19 F D- F C+ +1 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 160 Kent St. L 68 - 75 33% -6  0% 6 - 17 3 - 9 D -10 F -13 F F B B- +3 D+ A B-
 Tue, Feb 17 219 @Ohio L 57 - 69 24% -6  13% 6 - 18 3 - 10 D- -12 F+ -9 D F C+ D -5 C- A- D
 Fri, Feb 20 70 Akron L 65 - 78 11% -7  8% 6 - 19 3 - 11 D+ -8 D- -8 C D+ D C -0 B+ A D+
 Tue, Feb 24 200 Massachusetts W 74 - 73 OT 40% -8  10% 7 - 19 4 - 11 C- -4 F+ -8 F D B+ B +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Feb 28 336 @Northern Illinois W 79 - 43 54% +19  94% 8 - 19 5 - 11 A+ +27 A- +11 B C- A+ A+ +20 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Mar 3 276 @Western Michigan L 67 - 72 34%
 Fri, Mar 6 258 Central Michigan W 68 - 67 53%
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 12 -8 D- -7 B+ F+ C C -1 D- C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- F+ D D- F+ 39% 36% 41% C F+ D F+ D- C D+ C- D+ C D+ C+ C- C- 36% 20% 44% C C- D C D+ B- C+ F C
0.99 49% 33% 30% -7 0 0.88 26% 0.9 .22 16% .28 71% .20 1.10 61% 36% 35% +1 0 1.05 34% 1.0 .34 18% .28 79% .22
Nov
3		 Louisiana C+ C+ F A+ B+ 58% 13% 30% B+ A- D+ C- D+ C+ A+ D- A+ C- F+ D- A- C- 22% 31% 47% C C- C+ F D B- B+ A+ A
1.17 61% 0% 58% +8 +2 1.23 29% 1.0 .29 17% .53 68% .36 1.00 64% 44% 29% 0 -3 0.96 26% 1.1 .29 19% .17 56% .10
Nov
11		 Wisconsin F D- F C F 40% 17% 44% B+ F+ D+ D D+ F A+ F B C C- A+ F D 37% 2% 61% F+ D- F A F+ A+ A+ F A+
0.80 47% 0% 33% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.9 .18 20% .39 57% .22 1.26 63% 0% 42% +8 +2 1.24 47% 1.0 .47 22% .15 100% .15
Nov
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F D- B D+ F+ 41% 11% 48% C+ D- F A+ F F A D+ B+ C F A+ F F 41% 34% 24% D+ F+ F F F A+ C- A+ B
0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25 1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11
Nov
22		 Indiana St. F F A- F F 34% 30% 36% D- F C+ F D F F A F C D+ F B+ C- 42% 8% 50% C C- F A+ C B- A F C
0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08 1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17
Nov
28		 Monmouth C+ B- C- A+ A- 33% 20% 47% D+ B+ F+ F F A- F F+ F F B- C F F+ 39% 27% 35% C F+ F+ F+ F F+ D A- C-
1.10 61% 36% 42% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.7 .16 15% .11 67% .07 1.20 53% 38% 47% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 14% .33 68% .23
Nov
29		 Lafayette F F C F F 31% 18% 51% C F D+ F F F+ D F D- A- A A+ A+ A+ 43% 28% 30% A- A+ C- F F+ D- F F F
0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16 0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32
Nov
30		 Le Moyne A+ C- F C+ D+ 35% 16% 49% C D+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ D+ A+ F F A F F 25% 15% 60% B F D A+ B- F D+ F F
1.42 56% 13% 36% -3 0 0.96 51% 1.5 .74 16% .50 71% .35 1.26 75% 29% 48% +16 0 1.33 28% 0.7 .20 15% .35 85% .30
Dec
3		 Evansville F F F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F F F F F C- D C- B+ F D- A+ C+ 26% 23% 51% C C+ D- A C A- F+ D- F
0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19 0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27
Dec
9		 South Dakota St. F+ B- F F F 39% 16% 45% C+ F B F+ C A- B+ D B- C- C B F D- 49% 18% 33% D D- D- C+ D+ B- B+ C- B
1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25 1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15
Dec
14		 Campbell F F A+ F F 47% 26% 26% C F C F F+ D- B+ D B- A- F+ C+ A+ B 35% 24% 41% A+ B+ F A+ A C F A+ C-
0.92 44% 50% 14% -11 0 0.79 32% 0.8 .26 20% .36 70% .25 0.99 65% 33% 20% -7 -1 0.86 42% 0.6 .24 17% .50 55% .28
Dec
20		 Miami (OH) C+ B+ A+ D+ B 35% 30% 35% D B- F D- F A+ C B C+ D- B A+ F D- 33% 21% 46% B D B F C A F+ F F
1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22 1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38
Jan
3		 Buffalo C- F F B- F 31% 16% 53% D+ F B- B- B C- A+ A A+ F F F F F 43% 9% 48% F+ F F F F A- C- F F
1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36 1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33
Jan
6		 Eastern Michigan F F D- D+ F 43% 20% 36% C F F F F A- C- A+ B F C- F F F 36% 17% 48% F+ F F C F A+ A+ F A
0.90 42% 33% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 0.3 .06 12% .30 87% .26 1.29 60% 57% 55% +19 0 1.40 48% 1.0 .48 24% .14 83% .11
Jan
10		 Massachusetts D+ D F B D 42% 15% 42% B- D+ F B+ D- B F C F+ D+ F B D- F 33% 20% 47% C F B- A+ A+ C- F D+ F
1.03 55% 25% 36% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 72% .22 1.15 87% 33% 38% +11 0 1.24 29% 0.4 .13 17% .51 69% .35
Jan
13		 Akron B C+ A+ D- B- 40% 14% 46% B- B- F A+ C- A- B A- A- D+ C F C- C 38% 7% 55% D- C- A- F C F C F D
1.12 60% 71% 30% +3 +1 1.10 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 79% .26 1.26 62% 75% 35% +5 +2 1.16 27% 1.6 .42 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
16		 Ohio C C C+ C- C 36% 23% 41% D C- D- F+ F+ C+ A+ A A+ C- D+ F B+ D- 33% 39% 29% A+ D+ C C- C B D+ F F+
1.14 56% 40% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 15% .55 81% .44 1.06 63% 53% 29% +5 -3 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 18% .35 79% .27
Jan
20		 Central Michigan C+ C F A- C 41% 22% 37% D+ C- C F F A+ F B- F D+ A+ C- F F 33% 27% 40% C+ F F+ A C B A- A+ A+
1.15 60% 27% 39% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 8% .20 73% .15 1.14 33% 42% 61% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.9 .31 20% .21 50% .11
Jan
24		 Northern Illinois F C+ F F F 49% 12% 40% B F+ F A+ D- B+ B- F D+ B- D+ F A+ A+ 27% 18% 56% A- A+ C F F D- C- F D-
0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21 0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Toledo F F C F F 43% 18% 39% C F D- F F D- A+ C- A+ B F C B- C- 33% 24% 43% C+ C A C A- A- C+ F C-
0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35 1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22
Feb
3		 Bowling Green F C- C- F F 34% 23% 43% D F F A+ D+ B C F F F F A+ F F 42% 21% 37% B+ F D- B+ C A+ C F F+
0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15 1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Louisiana Monroe F+ F A- D+ F 45% 24% 31% D F C C C F A- A A B- F B+ A+ A+ 29% 31% 40% A A+ D F F C F F F
1.05 45% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 20% .33 78% .25 0.98 67% 31% 12% -13 -2 0.71 28% 1.3 .38 17% .63 83% .52
Feb
11		 Buffalo F F F D F 45% 11% 43% B F C- F D- F F B- F+ C+ D+ C- B B- 43% 12% 45% D- C+ F+ B D+ B C- F F
0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15 1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31
Feb
14		 Kent St. F F F D+ F 49% 9% 42% A- F F D- F B A+ C+ A+ B- B+ F D D+ 40% 12% 48% D- D+ A- A- A B- D+ B C
0.94 42% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 20% 0.9 .18 14% .48 73% .35 1.03 50% 50% 38% +1 +1 1.06 29% 0.9 .26 21% .40 70% .28
Feb
17		 Ohio F+ C- F D- D- 53% 18% 29% B D D+ F F C+ D F F D C+ D- C- C- 36% 23% 41% C C- C A+ A- D F F F
0.95 54% 25% 31% -6 +1 0.93 31% 0.6 .19 15% .28 57% .16 1.15 56% 50% 33% +2 0 1.05 27% 0.7 .18 13% .41 81% .33
Feb
20		 Akron D- F F A+ C- 40% 13% 48% B- C D C+ D+ D F F+ F C D+ B- A+ A 46% 14% 40% D B+ C- A+ A D+ C B C+
0.97 37% 17% 48% -1 +1 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 21% .17 67% .11 1.16 65% 38% 26% -2 +1 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 15% .26 73% .19
Feb
24		 Massachusetts F+ D- D- F F 42% 15% 42% B- F B+ F D B+ D A+ C B A- A+ A+ A+ 42% 20% 38% D+ A+ F D F C+ B+ F C
1.01 52% 33% 24% -10 +1 0.85 34% 0.7 .23 14% .35 82% .28 0.99 48% 18% 24% -14 0 0.75 42% 1.3 .53 19% .27 81% .22
Feb
28		 Northern Illinois A- C+ F A+ B 44% 13% 43% C+ B D A- C- A+ F A F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% A A+ A+ B- A+ D F F F
1.26 63% 29% 43% +7 +1 1.19 26% 1.3 .32 11% .18 80% .14 0.68 21% 30% 25% -20 -1 0.60 11% 0.8 .09 19% .45 74% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 2.5 15.0 17.5 7th
8th 14.7 3.9 18.6 8th
9th 22.3 22.3 9th
10th 21.7 9.7 31.3 10th
11th 9.2 9.2 11th
12th 1.1 1.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 31.9 49.2 18.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 18.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.9
6-12 49.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 49.2
5-13 31.9% 31.9
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 4.7% 16.0 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.0%
Lose Out 31.9%