IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.0	#270
Expected Predictive Rating	-11.6	#333

Pace	66.5	#249
Improvement	-0.8	#228

Offense
Total Offense	-4.3	#289

First Shot	-2.4	#243
After Offensive Rebound	-1.9	#290

Layup/Dunks	-3.5	#293
2 Pt Jumpshots	-1.4	#262
3 Pt Jumpshots	-2.3	#249
Freethrows	+4.9	#7

Improvement	-0.4	#221

Defense
Total Defense	-1.7	#225

First Shot	-4.1	#309
After Offensive Rebounds	+2.4	#41

Layups/Dunks	-1.5	#224
2 Pt Jumpshots	+0.5	#157
3 Pt Jumpshots	+3.2	#68
Freethrows	-6.4	#363

Improvement	-0.3	#213

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	2.9%	1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.4	15.3	15.6

.500 or above	17.2%	26.7%	10.9%
.500 or above in Conference	39.9%	47.3%	35.0%
Conference Champion	2.0%	2.6%	1.5%
Last Place in Conference	9.3%	6.3%	11.2%

First Four	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
First Round	1.8%	2.5%	1.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 9
Quad 4	8 - 8	11 - 17

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2024	230	@ Georgia St.	L	66-71	31%	0 - 1			-5.8	-5.6	-0.3
Nov 13, 2024	46	@ Dayton	L	69-77	5%	0 - 2			+5.6	-0.3	+5.9
Nov 16, 2024	191	Indiana St.	L	84-94	44%	0 - 3			-14.3	-4.4	-8.6
Nov 20, 2024	298	Detroit Mercy	L	59-70	66%	0 - 4			-21.2	-16.0	-5.8
Nov 25, 2024	207	Eastern Kentucky	W	63-61	36%	1 - 4			-0.2	-9.5	+9.4
Nov 27, 2024	186	Richmond	L	60-73	32%	1 - 5			-14.2	-4.1	-11.8
Dec 08, 2024	273	@ SIU Edwardsville	L	65-68	40%
Dec 14, 2024	333	@ Bellarmine	W	70-69	53%
Dec 21, 2024	243	Evansville	W	70-69	55%
Jan 04, 2025	110	@ Kent St.	L	57-70	13%
Jan 07, 2025	198	Miami (OH)	L	68-69	45%
Jan 11, 2025	267	Bowling Green	W	72-69	61%
Jan 14, 2025	157	@ Ohio	L	69-78	20%
Jan 18, 2025	203	Toledo	L	74-75	46%
Jan 21, 2025	196	@ Central Michigan	L	64-71	25%
Jan 25, 2025	338	@ Northern Illinois	W	70-68	56%
Jan 28, 2025	271	Western Michigan	W	72-69	61%
Feb 01, 2025	331	@ Buffalo	W	72-71	53%
Feb 04, 2025	131	@ Akron	L	68-78	17%
Feb 11, 2025	299	Eastern Michigan	W	69-65	65%
Feb 15, 2025	338	Northern Illinois	W	73-65	75%
Feb 18, 2025	203	@ Toledo	L	71-78	27%
Feb 22, 2025	331	Buffalo	W	75-68	73%
Feb 25, 2025	131	Akron	L	71-75	35%
Mar 01, 2025	267	@ Bowling Green	L	69-72	39%
Mar 04, 2025	196	Central Michigan	L	67-68	45%
Mar 07, 2025	198	@ Miami (OH)	L	65-72	26%
Projected Record						10 - 17	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.5	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0		2.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	1.3	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.0				3.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.1	2.2	0.8	0.1	0.0					5.6	3rd
4th									0.0	0.5	2.7	3.3	1.0	0.1							7.6	4th
5th									0.3	2.6	4.4	1.6	0.1	0.0							9.1	5th
6th							0.0	0.2	2.7	5.4	2.3	0.2	0.0								10.8	6th
7th						0.0	0.2	2.3	6.1	3.3	0.4	0.0									12.3	7th
8th					0.0	0.2	2.0	6.1	3.9	0.5	0.0										12.8	8th
9th				0.0	0.2	1.9	5.3	4.2	0.8	0.0											12.3	9th
10th				0.2	1.6	4.4	3.6	0.9	0.0												10.7	10th
11th		0.0	0.3	1.4	3.0	2.4	0.6	0.0													7.9	11th
12th	0.1	0.4	1.1	1.7	1.4	0.4	0.0														5.1	12th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.4	3.3	6.2	9.2	11.8	13.7	13.9	12.4	10.3	7.5	4.8	2.7	1.4	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	91.0%	0.2		0.1	0.0
15-3	74.4%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	46.5%	0.6		0.3	0.3	0.1
13-5	18.1%	0.5		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.4%	0.0				0.0	0.0			0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.0%	2.0		0.9	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%																		0.0					0.0
17-1	0.0%		33.3%	33.3%		13.1													0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
16-2	0.2%		30.3%	30.3%		13.7													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
15-3	0.6%		16.8%	16.8%		14.0													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.5
14-4	1.4%		15.6%	15.6%		14.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.2
13-5	2.7%		9.2%	9.2%		15.0														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	2.5
12-6	4.8%		6.8%	6.8%		15.3															0.0	0.1	0.1	4.4
11-7	7.5%		4.4%	4.4%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	7.2
10-8	10.3%		3.3%	3.3%		15.9																0.0	0.3	9.9
9-9	12.4%		2.6%	2.6%		16.0																0.0	0.3	12.1
8-10	13.9%		1.2%	1.2%		16.0																	0.2	13.7
7-11	13.7%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	13.6
6-12	11.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
5-13	9.2%																							9.2
4-14	6.2%																							6.2
3-15	3.3%																							3.3
2-16	1.4%																							1.4
1-17	0.4%																							0.4
0-18	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		2.2%	2.2%	0.0%	15.4													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	1.3	97.8		0.0%