Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.2#213
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#197
Pace74.5#63
Improvement+4.6#3

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#162
First Shot+3.4#87
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#325
Layup/Dunks-4.2#317
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#20
Freethrows+1.9#68
Improvement+2.3#20

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#261
First Shot-1.4#229
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#256
Layups/Dunks+0.8#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#242
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#196
Freethrows-1.1#245
Improvement+2.3#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.4% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 41.2% 56.0% 33.0%
.500 or above in Conference 51.2% 58.5% 47.1%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.8% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 2.5% 4.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round2.3% 3.3% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Away) - 35.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 180   @ Georgia Southern L 71-82 34%     0 - 1 -8.8 +0.2 -8.8
  Nov 13, 2021 331   Nebraska Omaha W 73-69 86%     1 - 1 -10.0 -5.7 -4.2
  Nov 18, 2021 225   Florida International L 60-73 52%     1 - 2 -15.8 -13.7 -1.9
  Nov 19, 2021 98   Weber St. L 74-85 24%     1 - 3 -5.7 -3.0 -1.8
  Nov 21, 2021 117   Massachusetts W 89-86 30%     2 - 3 +6.1 +5.9 +0.0
  Nov 27, 2021 175   Indiana St. W 97-75 55%     3 - 3 +18.6 +18.5 -0.8
  Dec 01, 2021 190   @ Western Illinois L 77-81 36%    
  Dec 08, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 66-82 7%    
  Dec 18, 2021 244   @ Illinois St. L 78-79 47%    
  Dec 21, 2021 346   Eastern Illinois W 81-66 91%    
  Dec 28, 2021 310   @ Northern Illinois W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 01, 2022 226   Bowling Green W 81-77 63%    
  Jan 04, 2022 137   Kent St. L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 262   @ Eastern Michigan W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 11, 2022 165   @ Akron L 69-74 31%    
  Jan 14, 2022 70   Buffalo L 80-86 29%    
  Jan 18, 2022 116   @ Toledo L 75-83 23%    
  Jan 22, 2022 302   @ Central Michigan W 81-78 60%    
  Jan 25, 2022 136   Miami (OH) L 74-75 45%    
  Jan 29, 2022 298   Western Michigan W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 01, 2022 72   @ Ohio L 72-84 14%    
  Feb 05, 2022 116   Toledo L 78-80 41%    
  Feb 08, 2022 302   Central Michigan W 84-75 78%    
  Feb 12, 2022 70   @ Buffalo L 77-89 14%    
  Feb 15, 2022 310   Northern Illinois W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 226   @ Bowling Green L 78-80 43%    
  Feb 22, 2022 137   @ Kent St. L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 26, 2022 262   Eastern Michigan W 81-75 71%    
  Mar 01, 2022 165   Akron W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 04, 2022 298   @ Western Michigan W 76-74 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.3 1.4 3.6 3.3 1.3 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.0 4.0 1.3 0.1 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.1 5.7 4.0 1.1 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.9 6.0 3.7 1.0 0.1 15.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.6 5.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 1.8 0.2 0.1 9.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.2 7.0 9.3 11.7 12.5 12.5 11.6 9.8 7.1 5.1 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 89.3% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 61.0% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 39.6% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 19.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.3% 14.3% 14.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.6% 11.9% 11.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.4% 17.3% 17.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
15-5 2.7% 9.6% 9.6% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5
14-6 5.1% 5.9% 5.9% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8
13-7 7.1% 6.6% 6.6% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 6.7
12-8 9.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.4
11-9 11.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 11.4
10-10 12.5% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 12.3
9-11 12.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 12.4
8-12 11.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.7
7-13 9.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-14 7.0% 7.0
5-15 4.2% 4.2
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 97.6 0.0%