Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 #298
Expected Predictive Rating -9.3 #315
Pace 62.3 #340
Improvement +2.9 #64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #307 D- D- C+ C- C
Defense #260 D+ D+ B- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.02 #333 -3.2 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.65 #327 -1.1 #240
Three Pointers 42% #163 0.89 #329 -2.1 #257
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #343 -6.4 #343
Freethrows 0.29 #234 71% #222 0.21 #227
Second Chance 25.7% #314 0.82 #362 0.21 #353
Turnovers 16.0% #131
Total Offense -5.2 #307

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 1.24 #284 +0.8 #143
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.77 #201 +0.0 #189
Three Pointers 45% #71 1.11 #311 -4.1 #333
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #289 -3.3 #289
Freethrows 0.26 #56 77% #357 0.20 #111
Second Chance 34.1% #312 1.05 #226 0.36 #292
Turnovers 18.3% #86
Total Defense -2.8 #260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #203 -0.5% #125
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.6% #349 7.1% #313
Possession Length 19.3 #345 17.3 #193
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #347 0.14 #90
Improvement +1.8 #88 +1.1 #113

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.6% 13.9% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.0% 7.4% 23.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 14.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 48 - 99 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 305 Louisiana W 75 - 64 62% +2  1 - 0 -0 +5 B+ D+ C+ -5 C- D B-
 Tue, Nov 11 37 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 2% -19  1 - 1 -14 -10 D- D+ F -5 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 292 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 60% -2  1 - 2 -17 -14 F F D- -3 F+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 199 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 21% -2  1 - 3 -17 -16 F D- F -3 C- C B-
 Fri, Nov 28 206 Monmouth L 73 - 80 31% -4  1 - 4 -10 +5 B F A- -15 F+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 310 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 42% -4  1 - 5 -24 -33 F F F+ +7 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 30 296 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 49% +0  2 - 5 +3 +23 D+ A+ C- -20 F B F
 Wed, Dec 3 271 @Evansville L 52 - 64 32% -1  2 - 6 -15 -18 F F F+ +2 C C+ B
 Tue, Dec 9 175 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 36% -0  2 - 7 -8 -5 F C- A -4 D C- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 212 @Campbell L 64 - 69 23% +1  2 - 8 -5 -11 F F+ D +6 A- A- C-
 Sat, Dec 20 92 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 15% -3  2 - 9 0 - 1 -6 +3 C+ F A+ -9 D+ C- A
 Sat, Jan 3 203 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 21% -14  2 - 10 0 - 2 -13 +2 F+ C+ D -15 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 6 237 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 47% -13  2 - 11 0 - 3 -29 -11 F F A -23 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 171 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 17% -3  2 - 12 0 - 4 -6 +1 C- D B -7 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 61 @Akron L 77 - 87 4% -11  2 - 13 0 - 5 +2 +9 B D+ A- -7 C C+ F+
 Fri, Jan 16 200 Ohio W 76 - 71 41% +8  3 - 13 1 - 5 -1 +4 C- D- B- -4 D+ C C+
 Tue, Jan 20 294 @Central Michigan W 68 - 67 37% +5  4 - 13 2 - 5 -4 +6 C F A+ -10 F C B
 Sat, Jan 24 308 Northern Illinois W 58 - 53 65% +6  5 - 13 3 - 5 -7 -9 F+ F+ A- +3 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 160 @Toledo L 55 - 73 16% -12  5 - 14 3 - 6 -15 -17 F F D+ +1 C B+ B+
 Tue, Feb 3 151 @Bowling Green L 64 - 75 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 74 - 70 66%
 Wed, Feb 11 203 Buffalo L 71 - 73 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 144 Kent St. L 70 - 76 30%
 Tue, Feb 17 200 @Ohio L 68 - 76 21%
 Fri, Feb 20 61 Akron L 68 - 82 10%
 Tue, Feb 24 171 Massachusetts L 70 - 74 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 308 @Northern Illinois L 67 - 69 43%
 Tue, Mar 3 275 @Western Michigan L 69 - 74 34%
 Fri, Mar 6 294 Central Michigan W 70 - 67 60%
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 12 -8 -5 D- D- C+ -3 D+ D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.5 1.5 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.2 4.3 0.4 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 1.5 8.3 2.3 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 1.0 10.4 6.8 0.3 18.5 9th
10th 0.2 7.1 10.7 1.1 19.1 10th
11th 2.3 10.7 2.6 0.0 15.6 11th
12th 0.5 7.2 4.7 0.2 12.6 12th
13th 3.5 4.2 0.4 0.0 8.2 13th
Total 4.0 13.9 23.9 25.5 18.5 9.6 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 3.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.6
8-10 9.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.6
7-11 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.5
6-12 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 25.5
5-13 23.9% 23.9
4-14 13.9% 13.9
3-15 4.0% 4.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%