Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#306
Expected Predictive Rating-13.1#340
Pace64.3#313
Improvement+1.9#73

Offense
Total Offense-5.5#321
First Shot-4.6#309
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#242
Layup/Dunks-2.5#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#142
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#255
Freethrows-0.5#216
Improvement-0.2#192

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#266
First Shot-2.2#246
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#233
Layups/Dunks-0.3#187
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#289
Freethrows+1.1#109
Improvement+2.1#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.8
.500 or above 0.3% 1.1% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.4% 19.3% 5.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.2% 12.3% 29.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 19.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 46 - 97 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 314 Louisiana W 75-64 64%     1 - 0 -0.9 +6.7 -6.7
  Tue, Nov 11 46 @Wisconsin L 55-86 3%     1 - 1 -16.9 -10.0 -7.6
  Sat, Nov 15 309 Arkansas Little Rock L 62-68 62%     1 - 2 -17.5 -13.0 -4.7
  Sat, Nov 22 201 @Indiana St. L 52-70 20%     1 - 3 -17.5 -14.9 -4.0
  Fri, Nov 28 224 Monmouth L 73-80 34%     1 - 4 -10.9 +2.1 -13.4
  Sat, Nov 29 321 @Lafayette L 37-55 43%     1 - 5 -24.5 -33.9 +6.9
  Sun, Nov 30 312 Le Moyne W 96-85 52%     2 - 5 +2.2 +19.1 -16.5
  Wed, Dec 3 252 @Evansville L 52-64 28%     2 - 6 -14.2 -17.5 +2.8
  Tue, Dec 9 172 South Dakota St. L 64-68 33%     2 - 7 -7.8 -4.4 -3.8
  Sun, Dec 14 225 @Campbell L 64-69 24%     2 - 8 -6.0 -9.3 +3.3
  Sat, Dec 20 106 Miami (OH) L 77-86 18%     2 - 9 0 - 1 -7.7 +2.7 -10.4
  Sat, Jan 3 196 @Buffalo L 67-76 20%    
  Tue, Jan 6 216 Eastern Michigan L 66-68 44%    
  Sat, Jan 10 164 @Massachusetts L 66-77 16%    
  Tue, Jan 13 59 @Akron L 69-89 3%    
  Fri, Jan 16 189 Ohio L 71-74 38%    
  Tue, Jan 20 323 @Central Michigan L 69-70 44%    
  Sat, Jan 24 328 Northern Illinois W 74-69 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 170 @Toledo L 68-79 17%    
  Tue, Feb 3 117 @Bowling Green L 61-75 9%    
  Wed, Feb 11 196 Buffalo L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 124 Kent St. L 71-79 24%    
  Tue, Feb 17 189 @Ohio L 68-77 20%    
  Sat, Feb 21 59 Akron L 72-86 10%    
  Tue, Feb 24 164 Massachusetts L 69-74 33%    
  Sat, Feb 28 328 @Northern Illinois L 71-72 46%    
  Tue, Mar 3 280 @Western Michigan L 69-74 33%    
  Fri, Mar 6 323 Central Michigan W 72-67 66%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.0 1.4 0.1 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.2 4.9 1.0 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.9 7.0 1.7 0.1 15.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 6.1 7.6 2.3 0.1 17.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 5.8 7.2 2.4 0.2 16.9 12th
13th 0.5 2.8 5.5 5.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 16.1 13th
Total 0.5 2.9 6.9 12.0 16.3 17.0 15.8 12.1 8.2 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3
14-4 30.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.4
11-7 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.0
10-8 2.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
9-9 4.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.5
8-10 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.2
7-11 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 15.8% 15.8
5-13 17.0% 17.0
4-14 16.3% 16.3
3-15 12.0% 12.0
2-16 6.9% 6.9
1-17 2.9% 2.9
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%