Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.0 #299
Expected Predictive Rating -12.8 #336
Pace 64.5 #310
Improvement +1.7 #86

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #314 F D+ F C- C-
Defense #258 D+ C+ D C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.03 #309 -3.5 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #148 0.63 #313 -0.9 #221
Three Pointers 42% #166 0.82 #346 -3.8 #298
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #352 -8.1 #352
Freethrows 15.8 #268 68% #288 10.8 #272
Second Chance 27.2% #272 0.84 #352 0.23 #335
Turnovers 17.5% #229
Total Offense -5.5 #314

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 1.22 #255 +1.0 #148
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #111 0.70 #126 -0.2 #206
Three Pointers 43% #142 1.13 #315 -3.3 #301
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #253 -2.5 #258
Freethrows 15.0 #73 78% #348 11.7 #137
Second Chance 36.1% #334 1.03 #178 0.37 #290
Turnovers 17.7% #123
Total Defense -2.6 #258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #228 -1% #91
Shot Type Make % Effect -15.4% #355 6% #282
Possession Length 19.1 #342 15.7 #23
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #324 0.15 #99
Improvement -0.2 #203 +1.9 #63

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.7% 23.1% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.8% 7.6% 23.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 18.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 46 - 88 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 303 Louisiana W 75-64 63%     2.4   1 - 0 -0.3 +6.6 -5.9
  Tue, Nov 11 45 @Wisconsin L 55-86 3%     -19.4   1 - 1 -16.6 -9.3 -8.0
  Sat, Nov 15 296 Arkansas Little Rock L 62-68 61%     -1.7   1 - 2 -16.9 -12.4 -4.7
  Sat, Nov 22 188 @Indiana St. L 52-70 19%     -1.8   1 - 3 -16.8 -15.2 -3.0
  Fri, Nov 28 234 Monmouth L 73-80 36%     -3.7   1 - 4 -11.3 +2.2 -13.8
  Sat, Nov 29 321 @Lafayette L 37-55 45%     -4.5   1 - 5 -24.7 -34.1 +6.9
  Sun, Nov 30 309 Le Moyne W 96-85 53%     0.2   2 - 5 +2.3 +20.0 -17.3
  Wed, Dec 3 257 @Evansville L 52-64 29%     -1.1   2 - 6 -14.3 -17.1 +2.3
  Tue, Dec 9 163 South Dakota St. L 64-68 32%     -0.1   2 - 7 -7.3 -4.1 -3.6
  Sun, Dec 14 226 @Campbell L 64-69 24%     0.6   2 - 8 -5.7 -9.5 +3.7
  Sat, Dec 20 103 Miami (OH) L 77-86 17%     -3.4   2 - 9 0 - 1 -6.9 +2.7 -9.5
  Sat, Jan 3 187 @Buffalo L 66-75 19%    
  Tue, Jan 6 208 Eastern Michigan L 67-69 43%    
  Sat, Jan 10 170 @Massachusetts L 66-76 17%    
  Tue, Jan 13 60 @Akron L 69-89 3%    
  Fri, Jan 16 178 Ohio L 70-74 37%    
  Tue, Jan 20 332 @Central Michigan L 68-69 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 330 Northern Illinois W 74-69 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 177 @Toledo L 69-79 18%    
  Tue, Feb 3 126 @Bowling Green L 62-75 11%    
  Wed, Feb 11 187 Buffalo L 69-72 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 128 Kent St. L 72-79 26%    
  Tue, Feb 17 178 @Ohio L 67-77 19%    
  Sat, Feb 21 60 Akron L 72-86 10%    
  Tue, Feb 24 170 Massachusetts L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 330 @Northern Illinois L 71-72 49%    
  Tue, Mar 3 271 @Western Michigan L 69-74 34%    
  Fri, Mar 6 332 Central Michigan W 72-66 70%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.0 0.9 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.1 1.8 0.2 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.9 5.6 1.4 0.1 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 6.9 7.5 2.4 0.2 18.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 7.0 7.5 2.4 0.2 18.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 5.8 6.1 2.0 0.1 15.5 12th
13th 0.4 2.5 4.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.0 13th
Total 0.4 2.6 6.0 10.7 15.4 17.5 15.9 12.9 9.1 5.1 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 1.2% 1.2
10-8 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
9-9 5.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.1
8-10 9.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.1
7-11 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
6-12 15.9% 15.9
5-13 17.5% 17.5
4-14 15.4% 15.4
3-15 10.7% 10.7
2-16 6.0% 6.0
1-17 2.6% 2.6
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%