Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #135
Expected Predictive Rating +3.0 #123
Pace 68.2 #217
Improvement +0.2 #173

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #160 C B- C C A-
Defense #126 C B- C- C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #52 1.08 #265 +1.5 #122
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #329 0.76 #171 -3.3 #327
Three Pointers 44% #136 1.04 #154 +1.9 #120
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #175 +0.1 #175
Freethrows 19.9 #65 71% #242 14.1 #94
Second Chance 31.6% #152 0.97 #264 0.31 #205
Turnovers 16.9% #190
Total Offense +0.2 #160

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #284 1.02 #41 +4.4 #51
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #113 0.88 #327 -2.2 #326
Three Pointers 43% #136 1.07 #262 -2.0 #265
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #166 +0.2 #165
Freethrows 16.8 #168 68% #37 11.4 #251
Second Chance 33.1% #275 1.03 #163 0.34 #230
Turnovers 17.3% #137
Total Defense +1.3 #126

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.9% #27 -1.0% #89
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.1% #209 0.5% #193
Possession Length 17.5 #190 17.3 #207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #162 0.15 #108
Improvement -0.1 #196 +0.3 #166

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.7% 26.6% 18.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 96.8% 98.4% 92.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 99.2% 95.0%
Conference Champion 35.9% 41.4% 19.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.7% 26.6% 18.8%
Second Round1.5% 1.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 75.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 35 - 58 - 8
Quad 411 - 319 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 139 @Kent St. W 103-97 OT 39%     7.7   1 - 0 +10.2 +11.6 -2.5
  Fri, Nov 7 149 @Furman W 64-61 43%     7.0   2 - 0 +6.4 -5.8 +12.2
  Fri, Nov 14 123 @Loyola Marymount L 63-74 35%     -3.4   2 - 1 -5.7 -4.5 -1.3
  Sun, Nov 16 204 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-94 54%     -3.6   2 - 2 -8.6 +8.6 -16.8
  Tue, Nov 18 51 @San Diego St. W 108-107 2OT 13%     3.2   3 - 2 +14.5 +18.3 -4.0
  Thu, Nov 20 46 @USC L 106-107 3OT 12%     -1.8   3 - 3 +13.1 +7.5 +5.9
  Mon, Nov 24 173 Toledo L 68-75 59%     -2.1   3 - 4 -7.9 -6.2 -1.8
  Wed, Nov 26 363 St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 95%     -2.1   4 - 4 -6.8 -9.9 +2.6
  Mon, Dec 1 308 West Georgia L 89-93 2OT 88%     0.2   4 - 5 -15.4 -6.9 -7.8
  Sun, Dec 14 112 @UAB W 86-85 30%     0.4   5 - 5 +7.8 +19.0 -11.2
  Sat, Dec 20 160 Marshall W 70-63 68%     5.9   6 - 5 1 - 0 +3.8 -4.6 +8.4
  Wed, Dec 31 267 Texas St. W 100-80 84%     8.0   7 - 5 2 - 0 +11.0 +26.3 -14.7
  Sat, Jan 3 197 South Alabama W 59-49 74%     5.4   8 - 5 3 - 0 +4.7 -3.8 +10.5
  Wed, Jan 7 128 @Arkansas St. L 74-86 37%     -9.9   8 - 6 3 - 1 -7.0 -2.2 -4.1
  Sat, Jan 10 311 @Louisiana W 69-62 75%    
  Wed, Jan 14 205 Southern Miss W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 128 Arkansas St. W 80-77 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 253 @Old Dominion W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 209 @Georgia Southern W 79-78 55%    
  Thu, Jan 29 200 James Madison W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 221 Appalachian St. W 71-63 76%    
  Wed, Feb 4 301 @Georgia St. W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 68 Akron L 79-83 36%    
  Wed, Feb 11 267 @Texas St. W 73-69 66%    
  Sat, Feb 14 205 @Southern Miss W 74-73 54%    
  Wed, Feb 18 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 83-71 87%    
  Sat, Feb 21 197 @South Alabama W 68-67 53%    
  Tue, Feb 24 311 Louisiana W 72-59 89%    
  Fri, Feb 27 356 Louisiana Monroe W 86-68 95%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 4.3 10.8 11.9 6.6 1.8 35.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.2 10.4 7.3 1.9 0.2 24.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 7.1 4.7 0.9 0.0 15.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.7 3.8 0.6 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.8 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.1 6.4 11.3 16.1 20.0 19.0 13.8 6.8 1.8 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 97.7% 6.6    6.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 86.0% 11.9    8.1 3.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 56.9% 10.8    4.7 4.7 1.3 0.1
13-5 21.6% 4.3    0.8 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.1
12-6 2.9% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 35.9% 35.9 21.4 10.6 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.8% 48.4% 48.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9
16-2 6.8% 44.3% 44.3% 12.5 0.1 1.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 3.8
15-3 13.8% 39.7% 39.7% 12.9 0.0 1.3 3.2 0.9 0.0 8.3
14-4 19.0% 33.5% 33.5% 13.2 0.0 0.9 3.7 1.7 0.1 0.0 12.6
13-5 20.0% 24.6% 24.6% 13.4 0.3 2.6 1.7 0.3 15.1
12-6 16.1% 15.2% 15.2% 13.7 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.6
11-7 11.3% 9.5% 9.5% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.2
10-8 6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.0
9-9 3.1% 3.9% 3.9% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0
8-10 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.2
7-11 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 24.7% 24.7% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.4 12.3 6.5 1.0 0.0 75.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.5 0.7 0.7 52.1 44.3 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%