Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#117
Expected Predictive Rating+17.3#4
Pace68.4#191
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.3#120
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#115
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 28.2% 19.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.3 12.0 12.6
.500 or above 87.1% 93.6% 80.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 95.2% 89.6%
Conference Champion 33.2% 39.3% 26.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round24.0% 28.1% 19.5%
Second Round3.4% 4.6% 2.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Away) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 47 - 8
Quad 412 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 136   @ Kent St. W 103-97 OT 44%     1 - 0 +10.3 +12.9 -3.7
  Nov 07, 2025 165   @ Furman W 72-71 52%    
  Nov 14, 2025 132   @ Loyola Marymount L 69-71 44%    
  Nov 16, 2025 183   @ Cal St. Northridge W 76-75 55%    
  Nov 18, 2025 36   @ San Diego St. L 61-74 12%    
  Nov 20, 2025 27   @ USC L 66-80 10%    
  Nov 24, 2025 195   Toledo W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 01, 2025 341   West Georgia W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 14, 2025 103   @ UAB L 72-76 35%    
  Dec 20, 2025 168   Marshall W 75-68 72%    
  Dec 31, 2025 260   Texas St. W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 03, 2026 155   South Alabama W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 07, 2026 134   @ Arkansas St. L 73-75 45%    
  Jan 10, 2026 248   @ Louisiana W 72-67 65%    
  Jan 14, 2026 297   Southern Miss W 81-68 87%    
  Jan 17, 2026 134   Arkansas St. W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 21, 2026 205   @ Old Dominion W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 24, 2026 243   @ Georgia Southern W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 29, 2026 138   James Madison W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 31, 2026 240   Appalachian St. W 70-60 81%    
  Feb 04, 2026 311   @ Georgia St. W 76-68 75%    
  Feb 11, 2026 260   @ Texas St. W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 14, 2026 297   @ Southern Miss W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 18, 2026 357   @ Louisiana Monroe W 78-65 87%    
  Feb 21, 2026 155   @ South Alabama W 67-66 50%    
  Feb 24, 2026 248   Louisiana W 75-64 81%    
  Feb 27, 2026 357   Louisiana Monroe W 81-62 95%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.4 9.1 9.1 5.8 2.1 33.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 5.5 6.5 3.5 0.8 0.0 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.9 5.0 1.8 0.2 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.3 1.3 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.3 1.0 0.1 7.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.0 1.2 0.1 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.2 3.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.4 5.1 7.7 9.6 12.3 13.5 13.8 12.7 9.8 5.8 2.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.1    2.1
17-1 99.5% 5.8    5.6 0.2
16-2 92.2% 9.1    7.3 1.7 0.1
15-3 71.5% 9.1    5.3 3.3 0.5 0.0
14-4 39.1% 5.4    2.0 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 12.1% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.2% 33.2 22.6 8.1 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.1% 67.6% 63.8% 3.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.7 10.7%
17-1 5.8% 55.8% 54.5% 1.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.6 2.8%
16-2 9.8% 47.5% 47.3% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.2 0.5%
15-3 12.7% 39.7% 39.7% 12.3 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.7
14-4 13.8% 30.1% 30.1% 12.6 0.3 1.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 9.7
13-5 13.5% 20.7% 20.7% 12.9 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 10.7
12-6 12.3% 12.7% 12.7% 13.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 10.7
11-7 9.6% 6.3% 6.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.0
10-8 7.7% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.4
9-9 5.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0
8-10 3.4% 1.2% 1.2% 19.5 0.0 0.0 3.4
7-11 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-12 1.1% 1.1
5-13 0.5% 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 24.0% 23.8% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 4.4 9.8 6.1 2.3 0.6 0.1 76.0 0.2%