Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#139
Expected Predictive Rating+3.7#119
Pace68.7#211
Improvement+0.2#166

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#160
First Shot+0.6#161
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#207
Layup/Dunks+0.2#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#179
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement+0.0#176

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#131
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#253
Layups/Dunks+3.9#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#318
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#198
Freethrows+0.3#161
Improvement+0.2#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.0% 26.8% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 95.2% 96.7% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 97.7% 90.7%
Conference Champion 37.6% 41.2% 20.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round25.0% 26.8% 16.9%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 82.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 2
Quad 35 - 58 - 7
Quad 411 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 124 @Kent St. W 103-97 OT 35%     1 - 0 +11.4 +12.9 -2.6
  Fri, Nov 7 148 @Furman W 64-61 41%     2 - 0 +6.9 -5.8 +12.8
  Fri, Nov 14 123 @Loyola Marymount L 63-74 35%     2 - 1 -5.6 -2.9 -2.8
  Sun, Nov 16 212 @Cal St. Northridge L 85-94 57%     2 - 2 -9.3 +7.5 -16.5
  Tue, Nov 18 52 @San Diego St. W 108-107 2OT 14%     3 - 2 +13.9 +18.4 -4.7
  Thu, Nov 20 38 @USC L 106-107 3OT 10%     3 - 3 +14.5 +7.6 +7.2
  Mon, Nov 24 170 Toledo L 68-75 58%     3 - 4 -7.7 -7.1 -0.6
  Wed, Nov 26 361 St. Francis (PA) W 74-64 93%     4 - 4 -5.5 -8.8 +2.9
  Mon, Dec 1 316 West Georgia L 89-93 2OT 89%     4 - 5 -16.0 -6.2 -9.1
  Sun, Dec 14 107 @UAB W 86-85 29%     5 - 5 +8.2 +18.8 -10.6
  Sat, Dec 20 161 Marshall W 70-63 67%     6 - 5 1 - 0 +3.9 -4.1 +7.9
  Wed, Dec 31 255 Texas St. W 74-64 82%    
  Sat, Jan 3 190 South Alabama W 72-66 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 136 @Arkansas St. L 77-80 39%    
  Sat, Jan 10 314 @Louisiana W 69-62 75%    
  Wed, Jan 14 207 Southern Miss W 77-69 76%    
  Sat, Jan 17 136 Arkansas St. W 80-77 60%    
  Wed, Jan 21 217 @Old Dominion W 75-73 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 213 @Georgia Southern W 79-77 56%    
  Thu, Jan 29 198 James Madison W 77-70 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 228 Appalachian St. W 70-61 78%    
  Wed, Feb 4 330 @Georgia St. W 77-68 79%    
  Wed, Feb 11 255 @Texas St. W 71-67 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 207 @Southern Miss W 74-72 56%    
  Wed, Feb 18 359 @Louisiana Monroe W 82-69 89%    
  Sat, Feb 21 190 @South Alabama W 70-69 52%    
  Tue, Feb 24 314 Louisiana W 72-59 89%    
  Fri, Feb 27 359 Louisiana Monroe W 85-66 96%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.0 9.1 11.0 8.0 3.8 0.9 37.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.7 9.0 6.7 2.1 0.2 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 6.2 3.5 0.6 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 8.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.1 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.0 7.4 11.1 14.6 16.8 16.5 13.1 8.2 3.8 0.9 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.8    3.7 0.1
16-2 97.6% 8.0    7.3 0.8 0.0
15-3 83.8% 11.0    7.9 2.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 55.3% 9.1    4.3 3.9 0.9 0.1
13-5 23.7% 4.0    0.8 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.6% 37.6 24.9 9.5 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 62.5% 62.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3
17-1 3.8% 50.2% 50.2% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 1.9
16-2 8.2% 46.4% 46.4% 12.7 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.3 4.4
15-3 13.1% 39.6% 39.6% 13.0 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.0 0.0 7.9
14-4 16.5% 33.8% 33.8% 13.3 0.5 3.2 1.8 0.1 10.9
13-5 16.8% 24.6% 24.6% 13.6 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.3 12.7
12-6 14.6% 15.6% 15.6% 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 12.3
11-7 11.1% 9.3% 9.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.1
10-8 7.4% 5.4% 5.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.0
9-9 4.0% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9
8-10 2.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.9
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.6 11.7 6.9 1.2 0.0 75.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.3 4.3 5.6 51.2 37.7 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%