Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.4 #138
Expected Predictive Rating +2.1 #130
Pace 66.1 #250
Improvement -0.5 #211

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #131 C C+ C C- B+
Defense #158 C- C- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #45 1.10 #252 +1.9 #118
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #340 0.80 #109 -3.4 #337
Three Pointers 45% #109 1.03 #170 +2.1 #113
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #152 +0.5 #158
Freethrows 0.29 #241 73% #166 0.21 #221
Second Chance 33.5% #94 0.99 #216 0.33 #126
Turnovers 16.7% #167
Total Offense +1.3 #131

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #244 1.09 #94 +2.4 #98
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.91 #354 -1.7 #313
Three Pointers 43% #115 1.07 #255 -2.1 #287
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #219 -1.5 #226
Freethrows 0.29 #122 69% #47 0.20 #91
Second Chance 31.9% #235 1.05 #218 0.33 #240
Turnovers 17.5% #150
Total Defense +0.2 #158

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.1% #22 -0.3% #142
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #201 2.9% #235
Possession Length 17.6 #215 17.7 #256
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #189 0.17 #178
Improvement +0.2 #173 -0.7 #230

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.6% 38.4% 34.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 84.5% 86.5% 83.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round35.6% 38.4% 34.1%
Second Round1.5% 1.9% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 34.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 12 - 2
Quad 35 - 57 - 7
Quad 413 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 139 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 39% +8  1 - 0 +10 +13 A+ B- B- -4 B- D- D-
 Fri, Nov 7 162 @Furman W 64 - 61 45% +7  2 - 0 +6 -6 C- F+ F +11 B C+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 154 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 44% -3  2 - 1 -8 -5 C D+ F -3 F+ A- D
 Sun, Nov 16 191 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 51% -4  2 - 2 -8 +9 B+ F A -17 F+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 44 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 11% +3  3 - 2 +16 +22 B- A+ A+ -6 C F A
 Thu, Nov 20 46 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 11% -2  3 - 3 +14 +9 C A+ D+ +5 B A+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 159 Toledo L 68 - 75 57% -2  3 - 4 -7 -6 F D- B- -1 C+ D C
 Wed, Nov 26 358 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 92% -2  4 - 4 -5 -10 F+ D+ F +5 D+ B- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 330 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 91% +0  4 - 5 -18 -7 C F F+ -10 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 121 @UAB W 86 - 85 35% +0  5 - 5 +6 +18 A B- A -12 F F+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 157 Marshall W 70 - 63 67% +6  6 - 5 1 - 0 +4 -5 D- C- D+ +9 A+ B+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 256 Texas St. W 100 - 80 82% +8  7 - 5 2 - 0 +12 +28 A+ A+ A+ -16 F+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 204 South Alabama W 59 - 49 75% +5  8 - 5 3 - 0 +4 -3 D- D B- +10 A+ C B
 Wed, Jan 7 169 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 46% -10  8 - 6 3 - 1 -10 -3 D+ F C+ -6 D- D- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 295 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 72% +16  9 - 6 4 - 1 +15 +26 B A+ D -9 F A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 244 Southern Miss W 91 - 65 81% +12  10 - 6 5 - 1 +18 +15 A+ C+ A+ +3 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 169 Arkansas St. W 99 - 74 69% +9  11 - 6 6 - 1 +21 +29 A+ A+ A -6 B D- F
 Wed, Jan 21 259 @Old Dominion W 83 - 77 2OT 66% -1  12 - 6 7 - 1 +3 -2 F B C- +5 B- A D+
 Sat, Jan 24 270 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 78 67% +4  13 - 6 8 - 1 +2 +15 C A+ D+ -13 F+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 220 James Madison L 64 - 73 77% -1  13 - 7 8 - 2 -15 -10 F F+ B+ -6 F+ C- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 172 Appalachian St. L 44 - 66 70% -9  13 - 8 8 - 3 -26 -20 F F C- -10 F A- A-
 Wed, Feb 4 272 @Georgia St. W 74 - 63 68% +4  14 - 8 9 - 3 +8 +8 B D- A- +1 C+ C- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 63 Akron L 77 - 81 34%
 Wed, Feb 11 256 @Texas St. W 72 - 68 64%
 Sat, Feb 14 244 @Southern Miss W 74 - 71 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 355 @Louisiana Monroe W 83 - 70 88%
 Sat, Feb 21 204 @South Alabama W 69 - 68 54%
 Tue, Feb 24 295 Louisiana W 72 - 60 87%
 Fri, Feb 27 355 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 67 96%
Totals 19 - 10 14 - 4 +1 +1 C C+ C +0 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 5.5 25.6 35.6 17.7 84.5 1st
2nd 0.7 6.6 4.4 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 1.3 0.1 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.8 13.5 30.1 35.6 17.7 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 17.7    17.7
14-4 100.0% 35.6    30.2 5.4 0.1
13-5 85.0% 25.6    13.2 10.6 1.7 0.1
12-6 40.7% 5.5    0.5 1.8 2.1 0.9 0.2
11-7 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 84.5% 84.5 61.7 17.8 3.8 1.0 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 17.7% 43.7% 43.7% 12.9 0.0 2.2 4.2 1.2 0.0 10.0
14-4 35.6% 38.8% 38.8% 13.4 0.0 1.1 7.1 5.1 0.6 21.8
13-5 30.1% 34.1% 34.1% 13.7 0.3 3.8 5.3 1.0 0.0 19.8
12-6 13.5% 24.7% 24.7% 13.9 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 10.1
11-7 2.8% 14.8% 14.8% 14.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.4
10-8 0.3% 6.3% 6.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 35.6% 35.6% 0.0% 13.4 64.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 100.0% 12.4 0.7 56.3 41.1 1.7 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0%