Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +0.8 146
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 138
Pace 65.9 252
Improvement -1.8 258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 145 C C C C B+
Defense C 171 C C- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 58 D+ 55% 269 +1.3 129
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 326 C 39% 147 -3.5 337
Three Pointers 45% 98 C 34% 186 +2.0 111
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 24 C- -1.4 224
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 174
Second Chance B- 33.0% 103 C- 0.98 257 C 0.32 142
Turnovers C 16.8% 174
Freethrows C- 0.30 210 C+ 73% 162 C 0.22 192
Total Offense C +0.8 145

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 125 B 8.5% 55
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 173 D- 8.0% 333
Three Pointers D+ 79% 278 D+ 1.4% 302
Total C+ 58% 117 C+ 5.2% 139

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 227 B- 55% 95 -2.0 110
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 171 F 48% 362 +2.2 333
Three Pointers 42% 137 C 34% 178 +0.6 212
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 145 C- +0.8 212
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 198
Second Chance C- 31.4% 221 C- 1.06 238 C- 0.33 236
Turnovers C 16.9% 181
Freethrows B- 0.28 112 B- 70% 81 B- 0.20 93
Total Defense C +0.0 171

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 152 C+ 12.3% 120
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 30% 278 F+ 0.5% 363
Three Pointers C- 86% 250 D+ 0.5% 269
Total C 56% 187 C- 4.9% 237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 228 17.8 267
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 233 0.17 175
Improvement -0.9 #237 -0.8 #238

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 169 147 127
Conference Record 11 - 7 12 - 6 13 - 5
Conference Finish 3 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27% 35% 20%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 76% 95% 58%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round27% 35% 20%
Second Round1% 1% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: South Alabama (Away) - 49.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 03 - 1
Quad 35 - 68 - 8
Quad 411 - 419 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 145 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 38% +8  89% 1 - 0 B +10 A- +10 A B- B- C -1 B F+ D
 Fri, Nov 7 181 @Furman W 64 - 61 46% +7  92% 2 - 0 C+ +5 F+ -8 D+ D- F A+ +13 B C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 153 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 41% -3  17% 2 - 1 D+ -8 F+ -8 C D+ F C+ +0 F+ A- D
 Sun, Nov 16 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 42% -4  14% 2 - 2 D+ -6 B+ +8 A- F A F -14 F+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 43 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 10% +3  70% 3 - 2 A- +16 A+ +20 B A+ A+ D+ -4 C- F A
 Thu, Nov 20 53 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 12% -2  27% 3 - 3 B+ +12 B +6 C- A+ D B+ +7 B A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 169 Toledo L 68 - 75 55% -2  35% 3 - 4 D+ -8 F+ -9 F F+ C+ C+ +1 B- D C
 Wed, Nov 26 355 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 92% -2  32% 4 - 4 C- -5 F -13 F D+ F A- +8 C- B A+
 Mon, Dec 1 318 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 89% +0  36% 4 - 5 F+ -17 F+ -9 C F F D- -7 D+ C+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 123 @UAB W 86 - 85 32% +0  43% 5 - 5 B- +7 A+ +17 A B A F -11 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 173 Marshall W 70 - 63 67% +6  89% 6 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +3 F -10 F D+ D+ A+ +13 A+ B+ B
 Wed, Dec 31 225 Texas St. W 100 - 80 76% +8  83% 7 - 5 2 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +26 A+ A+ A+ F -11 D F C
 Sat, Jan 3 188 South Alabama W 59 - 49 71% +5  80% 8 - 5 3 - 0 B- +5 D- -7 F+ D B A+ +14 A+ C A-
 Wed, Jan 7 140 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 37% -10  5% 8 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -8 D -5 C- F C C- -2 D- D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 303 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 72% +16  99% 9 - 6 4 - 1 A- +15 A+ +23 B A+ D D -6 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 245 Southern Miss W 91 - 65 78% +12  81% 10 - 6 5 - 1 A +19 A +13 A C+ A+ B +5 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 140 Arkansas St. W 99 - 74 60% +9  83% 11 - 6 6 - 1 A+ +23 A+ +27 A+ A+ A C- -3 B+ D F
 Wed, Jan 21 239 @Old Dominion W 83 - 77 2OT 58% -1  24% 12 - 6 7 - 1 C+ +5 D -4 F B D+ A- +8 B A D+
 Sat, Jan 24 262 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 78 63% +4  89% 13 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +2 A +13 C+ A+ D F -10 F+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 210 James Madison L 64 - 73 74% -1  37% 13 - 7 8 - 2 F+ -15 F -11 F F+ A- D+ -4 F+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 174 Appalachian St. L 44 - 66 68% -9  6% 13 - 8 8 - 3 F -26 F -24 F F D+ D- -7 F A A
 Wed, Feb 4 283 @Georgia St. W 74 - 63 68% +4  78% 14 - 8 9 - 3 B- +7 B +6 B D- A- B- +2 C D+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 76 Akron W 79 - 69 36% +3  63% 15 - 8 A- +15 A- +10 B- C+ A+ B+ +5 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 225 @Texas St. L 62 - 74 55% -9  0% 15 - 9 9 - 4 D- -13 D- -6 F C- F D- -7 F C B+
 Sat, Feb 14 245 @Southern Miss L 65 - 69 59% +0  41% 15 - 10 9 - 5 D+ -5 D -5 C C- F C -0 A+ F D-
 Wed, Feb 18 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 77 - 76 87% +0  42% 16 - 10 10 - 5 D -10 D -5 D- D- B- D+ -5 C+ D+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 188 @South Alabama L 70 - 71 49%
 Tue, Feb 24 303 Louisiana W 73 - 61 87%
 Fri, Feb 27 353 Louisiana Monroe W 86 - 68 96%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 6 +1 C +1 A- C- B+ C +0 C C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C C- 43% 23% 45% B+ C B- C- C C C- C+ C C B- F C C- 37% 21% 42% C C C- C- C- C B- B- B-
1.10 55% 39% 34% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.0 .32 17% .30 73% .22 1.09 55% 48% 34% +1 0 1.03 31% 1.1 .33 17% .28 70% .21
Nov
3		 Kent St. A- C+ B- A+ A 50% 9% 41% A A F A+ B- B- A+ B A+ C A+ A- F B- 35% 23% 42% B B F C F+ D F C- F
1.20 59% 40% 46% +8 +2 1.22 21% 1.7 .34 14% .45 76% .34 1.13 36% 29% 42% -5 0 0.92 44% 1.0 .46 16% .46 76% .35
Nov
7		 Furman F+ D A+ F+ D 35% 10% 55% B+ D+ D- D D- F C- D C- A+ A+ A+ F B+ 41% 11% 48% D+ B C+ B- C+ A+ B+ C+ B
0.94 50% 60% 29% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 20% .24 69% .17 0.89 42% 20% 41% -4 +1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 25% .23 67% .16
Nov
14		 Loyola Marymount F+ F A+ C D+ 40% 10% 50% A C C- D- D+ F A+ A- A+ C+ D- F D+ F 33% 33% 35% B+ F+ A C+ A- D A A+ A+
0.91 41% 50% 33% -6 +2 0.93 30% 0.9 .27 29% .41 80% .32 1.07 67% 56% 37% +10 -2 1.18 19% 1.0 .19 16% .19 45% .09
Nov
16		 Cal St. Northridge B+ B+ A+ C+ B+ 37% 9% 54% B+ A- D- F F A B- A+ A F D+ F D+ D- 56% 9% 35% F F+ F F F B- B D+ C+
1.16 65% 60% 34% +5 +1 1.15 21% 0.7 .15 11% .34 86% .29 1.29 60% 60% 37% +5 +3 1.17 45% 1.3 .61 19% .27 69% .19
Nov
18		 San Diego St. A+ C A+ D+ B+ 31% 23% 45% C- B A- A A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ D+ D+ F D 29% 38% 33% A C- F B- F A F A- F
1.21 55% 47% 31% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.1 .40 15% .56 74% .42 1.19 67% 40% 41% +7 -3 1.10 45% 1.1 .48 22% .69 71% .49
Nov
20		 USC B D+ F D+ D+ 47% 16% 37% B+ C- A+ B+ A+ D A+ D A+ B+ B F B B 37% 24% 39% C+ B A+ D- A+ F+ F C- F
1.05 52% 27% 31% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .46 20% .43 71% .31 1.06 56% 50% 31% 0 0 1.01 16% 1.1 .18 13% .52 74% .39
Nov
24		 Toledo F+ C- A+ F F 48% 7% 45% A- F C F F+ C+ C A B- C+ C+ C- C- C+ 36% 36% 28% A- B- D D D C C- C C-
0.99 57% 75% 19% -8 +2 0.91 35% 0.6 .23 17% .25 79% .19 1.09 56% 44% 36% +2 -2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .29 76% .22
Nov
26		 St. Francis (PA) F D F F 57% 0% 43% A+ F B+ F D+ F A+ F A+ A- A+ F F D+ 30% 28% 41% B C- D- A+ B A+ D- D- F+
1.01 58% 28% -4 +4 1.02 40% 0.9 .34 26% .55 63% .35 0.87 36% 46% 42% +1 -2 1.00 31% 0.6 .20 30% .31 75% .23
Dec
1		 West Georgia F+ D- A+ B C- 51% 7% 42% B+ C C F F F A F B- D- B+ D+ D+ C- 42% 31% 28% D- D+ C- B C+ F C A+ A-
1.03 52% 75% 38% +2 +3 1.11 31% 0.6 .18 20% .42 62% .26 1.08 47% 41% 35% -3 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .29 6% .27 50% .14
Dec
14		 UAB A+ F B A+ A 42% 9% 49% A- A C A B A B- C+ B- F D F F F 37% 26% 37% B- F C+ F F B+ A C+ A
1.27 45% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 27% 1.1 .30 12% .27 75% .20 1.25 65% 57% 40% +11 -1 1.22 31% 1.4 .45 15% .22 69% .16
Dec
20		 Marshall F F F D+ F 47% 4% 49% A+ F C- D D+ D+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D- A A+ A+ 25% 26% 49% B- A+ F+ A+ B+ B C A B-
1.00 42% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.86 32% 0.8 .27 19% .41 83% .33 0.90 69% 29% 19% -11 -2 0.77 37% 0.8 .28 20% .25 64% .16
Dec
31		 Texas St. A+ B+ F A+ A+ 65% 7% 28% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B- D+ F D- 40% 27% 33% C- D F F F C B- A+ A-
1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33 1.18 52% 43% 41% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16
Jan
3		 South Alabama D- F D D F 20% 6% 73% C F+ B F D B F F F A+ A B A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% D+ A+ F A+ C A- F C- F
1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08 0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29
Jan
7		 Arkansas St. D A+ F B- C 30% 26% 44% D C- D F F C D F F C- A F F F 23% 19% 58% A D- C F+ D B- F C- F
0.98 76% 13% 36% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.7 .15 15% .28 61% .17 1.14 45% 56% 39% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
10		 Louisiana A+ F+ F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B A+ A+ A+ D F F F D F F+ F F 26% 23% 51% F+ F A- A+ A+ D+ C- F+ D+
1.41 50% 14% 55% +6 +1 1.17 58% 1.7 .97 20% .22 45% .10 1.10 75% 45% 42% +12 -1 1.23 20% 0.3 .07 16% .24 77% .19
Jan
14		 Southern Miss A B+ F A+ A 52% 7% 41% A A A- F+ C+ A+ F+ C+ D- B C F A+ B 41% 26% 33% D- B- D- D+ D- A+ C+ A B+
1.29 64% 0% 50% +10 +3 1.28 36% 0.8 .30 11% .27 71% .19 0.92 58% 50% 13% -7 0 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 26% .34 67% .23
Jan
17		 Arkansas St. A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 43% 2% 55% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A B- A+ A+ C- A+ F F+ A- 45% 12% 43% D B+ B F D F D- A+ B
1.48 77% 100% 36% +11 +3 1.29 41% 1.5 .59 10% .35 90% .32 1.11 32% 50% 38% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.3 .44 13% .38 55% .21
Jan
21		 Old Dominion D F A+ F F 43% 18% 39% B- F C- A+ B D+ A+ A+ A+ A- D+ D- A+ B 39% 31% 30% C+ B A A A D+ F+ C+ D-
1.02 38% 60% 18% -14 +1 0.75 29% 1.3 .38 16% .50 85% .42 0.94 63% 42% 17% -5 -1 0.90 17% 0.9 .14 15% .36 72% .26
Jan
24		 Georgia Southern A D+ B- C- 50% 0% 50% A C+ A+ B+ A+ D A+ C A+ F D F B F+ 31% 8% 61% C F+ C- F F D- B- D C+
1.30 55% 36% 0 +3 1.09 50% 1.2 .59 20% .47 75% .35 1.22 60% 100% 30% +2 +1 1.08 29% 1.8 .52 13% .31 76% .23
Jan
29		 James Madison F F F F F 44% 13% 43% B F F+ D- F+ A- D- D- F+ D+ D B+ F F 46% 15% 40% D F+ D+ C- D+ B F B+ D-
0.97 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 22% 0.9 .20 9% .30 67% .20 1.11 64% 29% 42% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.1 .33 20% .38 65% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Appalachian St. F C D F F 37% 12% 51% B- F F+ F F D+ F A+ F D- F D- D- F 15% 15% 70% A- F C A+ A A A+ F B+
0.75 56% 33% 16% -15 +1 0.73 22% 0.5 .11 15% .08 100% .08 1.12 86% 43% 36% +7 -1 1.15 30% 0.7 .20 20% .17 88% .15
Feb
4		 Georgia St. B A F D C+ 51% 4% 45% A+ B B+ F D- A- F D- F B- B+ D- A C 31% 35% 33% B- C C F+ D+ D D- A+ C
1.16 69% 0% 30% +2 +3 1.12 40% 0.6 .25 13% .21 67% .14 0.99 47% 41% 25% -7 -2 0.83 27% 1.2 .32 14% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Akron A- F F A+ B- 38% 16% 46% C+ B- D- A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ A- B+ F B+ A B+ 35% 17% 48% B- B+ A+ B+ A+ F B- A B+
1.23 37% 25% 52% +2 +1 1.08 26% 1.3 .35 11% .30 88% .26 1.08 72% 33% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 11% .23 69% .16
Feb
11		 Texas St. D- F+ F+ D F 26% 18% 56% D- F B+ F C- F A+ B+ A+ D- F F A+ F 37% 44% 19% A+ F B D C B+ F F F
0.97 50% 29% 32% -6 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41 1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32
Feb
14		 Southern Miss D B A F D 54% 4% 41% A+ C A F C- F D+ F F+ C A+ F A+ A+ 57% 25% 18% F A+ F D+ F D- A- F+ B+
0.98 64% 50% 26% -1 +3 1.07 37% 0.7 .26 23% .31 56% .18 1.04 38% 54% 0% -16 +1 0.71 42% 1.1 .47 15% .29 81% .23
Feb
18		 Louisiana Monroe D D+ A+ D- F+ 42% 6% 52% B+ D- F+ C- D- B- A+ D A+ D+ B F A+ B- 41% 20% 39% D+ C+ C D D+ F D D+ D
1.09 57% 67% 31% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 14% .43 65% .28 1.08 48% 73% 18% -7 0 0.89 24% 1.1 .27 6% .35 74% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 34.4 41.5 76.2 1st
2nd 2.0 14.7 16.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 4.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 2.9 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.4 9.1 49.0 41.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 41.5    29.1 12.4
12-6 70.1% 34.4    1.7 9.2 15.0 8.4
11-7 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 76.2% 76.2 30.8 21.6 15.0 8.5 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 41.5% 36.2% 36.2% 13.1 2.0 10.0 3.0 0.0 26.5
12-6 49.0% 23.3% 23.3% 13.4 0.4 6.0 4.8 0.3 37.6
11-7 9.1% 11.0% 11.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 8.1
10-8 0.4% 8.4% 8.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.4% 27.4% 0.0% 13.3 72.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.0% 100.0% 13.1 13.0 66.5 20.2 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.1%
Lose Out 0.1%