Troy
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +0.4 150
Results Rating +1.2 140
Consistency 0.18 308
Pace 64.7 280
Improvement -1.7 252

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 146 C C+ C C B+
Defense C 183 C C- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 D+ 55% 269 +1.2 132
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 327 C+ 40% 121 -3.4 332
Three Pointers 45% 94 C- 33% 216 +1.6 133
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 24 C- -1.8 244
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 184
Second Chance B- 33.9% 80 D+ 0.96 286 C+ 0.33 138
Opponents' Steals C 9.4% 176
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 183
Turnovers C 16.6% 178
Freethrows C 0.30 199 C+ 74% 143 C 0.22 178
Total Offense C +0.7 146

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 53% 111 B 8.8% 62
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 206 D 7.6% 319
Three Pointers D+ 80% 280 D 1.4% 309
Total C+ 59% 111 C+ 5.3% 159


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 226 B- 55% 99 -1.9 113
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 192 F 48% 363 +1.9 325
Three Pointers 43% 121 C 34% 164 +0.7 220
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 159 C- +0.6 206
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 197
Second Chance D+ 32.1% 261 C 1.03 183 C- 0.33 235
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.2% 125
Other Turnovers D+ 6.4% 292
Turnovers C 16.7% 182
Freethrows B- 0.28 106 B- 71% 109 B- 0.20 94
Total Defense C -0.3 183

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 149 C+ 12.1% 126
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 283 F+ 0.6% 360
Three Pointers C- 86% 241 C- 0.7% 196
Total C 56% 191 C- 5.0% 221

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 252 17.9 274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 229 0.17 177
Consistency 0.19 365 0.11 52
Improvement -0.8 235 -0.9 239

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 167 156 142
Results Rating Rank 157 148 127
Conference Record 12 - 6 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34% 58% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round34% 58% 0%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 03 - 1
Quad 34 - 77 - 9
Quad 412 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 160 @Kent St. W 103 - 97 OT 40% +8  89% 1 - 0 B +9 B+ +9 A B- B C -1 B F D
 Fri, Nov 7 184 @Furman W 64 - 61 47% +7  92% 2 - 0 C+ +4 F+ -8 D+ F+ F A+ +13 B C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 154 @Loyola Marymount L 63 - 74 39% -3  17% 2 - 1 D+ -8 F+ -8 C D F C+ +1 F+ A- D+
 Sun, Nov 16 168 @Cal St. Northridge L 85 - 94 42% -4  14% 2 - 2 D+ -7 B+ +8 A- F A F -14 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 45 @San Diego St. W 108 - 107 2OT 9% +3  70% 3 - 2 A- +16 A+ +19 B A A+ D+ -3 C- F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 60 @USC L 106 - 107 3OT 14% -2  27% 3 - 3 B +11 B +6 C- A+ D B+ +6 B A+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 155 Toledo L 68 - 75 51% -2  35% 3 - 4 D+ -7 F+ -9 F F C B- +2 B- D C+
 Wed, Nov 26 355 St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 64 92% -2  32% 4 - 4 D+ -5 F -13 F D+ F A- +8 C- B A+
 Mon, Dec 1 308 West Georgia L 89 - 93 2OT 87% +0  36% 4 - 5 F+ -16 F+ -9 C F F D -6 C- C+ F
 Sun, Dec 14 123 @UAB W 86 - 85 30% +0  43% 5 - 5 B- +7 A+ +18 A B A F -11 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 20 186 Marshall W 70 - 63 69% +6  89% 6 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +2 F -11 F D D A+ +13 A+ B+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 233 Texas St. W 100 - 80 76% +8  83% 7 - 5 2 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +26 A+ A+ A+ F -12 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 185 South Alabama W 59 - 49 69% +5  80% 8 - 5 3 - 0 B- +5 D- -6 D- D+ B A+ +14 A+ C A-
 Wed, Jan 7 145 @Arkansas St. L 74 - 86 36% -10  5% 8 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -8 D -5 C- F C C- -2 D- D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 303 @Louisiana W 90 - 70 71% +16  99% 9 - 6 4 - 1 A- +15 A+ +23 B A+ D- D -6 F A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 226 Southern Miss W 91 - 65 75% +12  81% 10 - 6 5 - 1 A +19 A +14 A+ C A+ B +5 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 145 Arkansas St. W 99 - 74 59% +9  83% 11 - 6 6 - 1 A +23 A+ +27 A+ A+ A C- -3 B+ D F
 Wed, Jan 21 241 @Old Dominion W 83 - 77 2OT 57% -1  24% 12 - 6 7 - 1 C+ +5 D -5 F B D+ A +8 B A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 260 @Georgia Southern W 83 - 78 61% +4  89% 13 - 6 8 - 1 C+ +2 A +13 C A+ D F -10 D- F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 204 James Madison L 64 - 73 71% -1  37% 13 - 7 8 - 2 D- -14 F -11 F F+ A- D+ -4 F+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 171 Appalachian St. L 44 - 66 66% -9  6% 13 - 8 8 - 3 F -26 F -23 F F D+ D- -7 F A A
 Wed, Feb 4 299 @Georgia St. W 74 - 63 70% +4  78% 14 - 8 9 - 3 B- +6 B- +5 B- D- A- C+ +2 C+ D+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 70 Akron W 79 - 69 32% +3  63% 15 - 8 A- +15 A- +11 B- B- A+ B+ +6 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 233 @Texas St. L 62 - 74 55% -9  0% 15 - 9 9 - 4 D- -13 D -6 F C- F F+ -8 F C B+
 Sat, Feb 14 226 @Southern Miss L 65 - 69 54% +0  41% 15 - 10 9 - 5 C- -5 D -5 C D+ F C -0 A+ F F+
 Wed, Feb 18 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 77 - 76 87% +0  42% 16 - 10 10 - 5 D -11 D- -6 D- D- B- D+ -4 C+ C- F
 Sat, Feb 21 185 @South Alabama L 54 - 65 47% -4  3% 16 - 11 10 - 6 D -10 F+ -9 F D+ B C- -3 D+ C D+
 Tue, Feb 24 303 Louisiana W 78 - 59 86% +6  68% 17 - 11 11 - 6 B- +8 A+ +16 B A C D+ -4 D- B+ C+
 Fri, Feb 27 354 Louisiana Monroe W 80 - 65 94% +7  83% 18 - 11 12 - 6 C- -3 B- +4 C B+ C+ D -5 B+ F D
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 6 +0 C +1 A C- B+ C +0 C- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C+ C- C- 43% 24% 45% B+ C B- D+ C+ C C C+ C C B- F C C- 37% 20% 43% C C D+ C C- C B- B- B-
1.10 55% 40% 33% -2 +1 1.01 34% 1.0 .33 17% .30 74% .22 1.09 55% 48% 34% +1 0 1.03 32% 1.0 .33 17% .28 71% .21
Nov
3		 Kent St. B+ C B- A+ A 50% 9% 41% A A F A+ B- B A+ B A+ C A+ A- F B 35% 23% 42% B B F C F D F C- F
1.20 59% 40% 46% +8 +2 1.22 21% 1.7 .34 14% .45 76% .34 1.13 36% 29% 42% -5 0 0.92 44% 1.0 .46 16% .46 76% .35
Nov
7		 Furman F+ D A+ F+ D 35% 10% 55% B+ D+ D- D- F+ F C- C- C- A+ A+ A+ F B 41% 11% 48% D+ B C+ B- C+ A+ B+ C+ B
0.94 50% 60% 29% -5 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 20% .24 69% .17 0.89 42% 20% 41% -4 +1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 25% .23 67% .16
Nov
14		 Loyola Marymount F+ F A+ C D+ 40% 10% 50% A C C- D- D F A+ A- A+ C+ D- F D+ F 33% 33% 35% B+ F+ A B- A- D+ A A+ A+
0.91 41% 50% 33% -6 +2 0.93 30% 0.9 .27 29% .41 80% .32 1.07 67% 56% 37% +10 -2 1.18 19% 1.0 .19 16% .19 45% .09
Nov
16		 Cal St. Northridge B+ B+ A+ C+ B+ 37% 9% 54% B+ A- D- F F A B A+ A F D+ F D F+ 56% 9% 35% F F F F F B- B- D C+
1.16 65% 60% 34% +5 +1 1.15 21% 0.7 .15 11% .34 86% .29 1.29 60% 60% 37% +5 +3 1.17 45% 1.3 .61 19% .27 69% .19
Nov
18		 San Diego St. A+ C A+ D+ B+ 31% 23% 45% C- B A- A A A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ D D+ F D 29% 38% 33% A+ C- F B- F A+ F B+ F
1.21 55% 47% 31% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.1 .40 15% .56 74% .42 1.19 67% 40% 41% +7 -3 1.10 45% 1.1 .48 22% .69 71% .49
Nov
20		 USC B D+ F D+ D+ 47% 16% 37% B+ C- A+ B+ A+ D A+ D- A+ B+ B- F B B 37% 24% 39% C+ B A+ D A+ F+ F C- F
1.05 52% 27% 31% -7 +1 0.91 44% 1.0 .46 20% .43 71% .31 1.06 56% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.01 16% 1.1 .18 13% .52 74% .39
Nov
24		 Toledo F+ C- A+ F F 48% 7% 45% A- F C F F C C A B- B- C+ C- C- C+ 36% 36% 28% A B- D D+ D C+ C- C- C-
0.99 57% 75% 19% -8 +2 0.91 35% 0.6 .23 17% .25 79% .19 1.09 56% 44% 36% +2 -2 1.02 32% 1.1 .35 16% .29 76% .22
Nov
26		 St. Francis (PA) F D F F 57% 0% 43% A+ F B+ F D+ F A+ F A+ A- A+ F F D+ 30% 28% 41% B C- D- A+ B A+ D F+ F+
1.01 58% 28% -4 +4 1.02 40% 0.9 .34 26% .55 63% .35 0.87 36% 46% 42% 0 -2 1.00 31% 0.6 .20 30% .31 75% .23
Dec
1		 West Georgia F+ D- A+ B C 51% 7% 42% B+ C C F F F A F B- D B+ C- D+ C 42% 31% 28% D- C- C- B C+ F C- A+ B+
1.03 52% 75% 38% +2 +3 1.11 31% 0.6 .18 20% .42 62% .26 1.08 47% 41% 35% -3 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .29 6% .27 50% .14
Dec
14		 UAB A+ F B- A+ A 42% 9% 49% A- A C+ A- B A B- C+ B- F D F F F 37% 26% 37% B F C+ F F B+ A C+ A
1.27 45% 40% 50% +7 +2 1.19 27% 1.1 .30 12% .27 75% .20 1.25 65% 57% 40% +11 -1 1.22 31% 1.4 .45 15% .22 69% .16
Dec
20		 Marshall F F F D+ F 47% 4% 49% A+ F D+ D- D D B+ A+ A+ A+ D- A A+ A+ 25% 26% 49% B- A+ F+ A+ B+ B+ C A B-
1.00 42% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.86 32% 0.8 .27 19% .41 83% .33 0.90 69% 29% 19% -11 -2 0.77 37% 0.8 .28 20% .25 64% .16
Dec
31		 Texas St. A+ B+ F A+ A+ 65% 7% 28% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B- D+ F D- 40% 27% 33% C- D- F F F C B- A+ B+
1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33 1.18 52% 43% 41% +2 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16
Jan
3		 South Alabama D- F D+ D F+ 20% 6% 73% C D- B F D+ B F F F A+ A B A+ A+ 43% 14% 43% D+ A+ F A+ C A- F C- F
1.01 40% 33% 31% -8 +1 0.88 37% 0.8 .29 15% .14 57% .08 0.84 44% 33% 17% -18 +1 0.69 31% 0.9 .28 17% .43 67% .29
Jan
7		 Arkansas St. D A+ F B- C 30% 26% 44% D C- D F F C D F F+ C- A F F F 23% 19% 58% A D- C- D- D B- F D+ F
0.98 76% 13% 36% 0 -1 1.00 23% 0.7 .15 15% .28 61% .17 1.14 45% 56% 39% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 21% .49 76% .37
Jan
10		 Louisiana A+ F+ F A+ B 43% 15% 43% C B A+ A+ A+ D- F F F D F F+ F F 26% 23% 51% F+ F A- A+ A+ C- C- F D
1.41 50% 14% 55% +6 +1 1.17 58% 1.7 .97 20% .22 45% .10 1.10 75% 45% 42% +12 -1 1.23 20% 0.3 .07 16% .24 77% .19
Jan
14		 Southern Miss A B+ F A+ A 52% 7% 41% A A+ A- F C A+ F C+ F+ B C F A+ B 41% 26% 33% D B- D- D+ D- A+ C+ A B
1.29 64% 0% 50% +10 +3 1.28 36% 0.8 .30 11% .27 71% .19 0.92 58% 50% 13% -7 -1 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 26% .34 67% .23
Jan
17		 Arkansas St. A+ A+ A+ B- A+ 43% 2% 55% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A B- A+ A+ C- A+ F F+ A- 45% 12% 43% D B+ B F D F D A+ B+
1.48 77% 100% 36% +11 +3 1.29 41% 1.5 .59 10% .35 90% .32 1.11 32% 50% 38% -8 +2 0.90 34% 1.3 .44 13% .38 55% .21
Jan
21		 Old Dominion D F A+ F F 43% 18% 39% B- F D+ A+ B D+ A+ A+ A+ A D+ D- A+ B 39% 31% 30% C+ B A A+ A+ D+ F+ C+ D-
1.02 38% 60% 18% -14 +1 0.75 29% 1.3 .38 16% .50 85% .42 0.94 63% 42% 17% -5 -1 0.90 17% 0.9 .14 15% .36 72% .26
Jan
24		 Georgia Southern A D B- D+ 50% 0% 50% A C A+ B+ A+ D A+ C- A F D+ F B F+ 31% 8% 61% C D- D+ F F D- B- D C
1.30 55% 36% 0 +3 1.09 50% 1.2 .59 20% .47 75% .35 1.22 60% 100% 30% +2 +1 1.08 29% 1.8 .52 13% .31 76% .23
Jan
29		 James Madison F F F F F 44% 13% 43% B+ F F+ D- F+ A- D D- D- D+ D B+ F F 46% 15% 40% D F+ C- C- D+ B F B+ D
0.97 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 22% 0.9 .20 9% .30 67% .20 1.11 64% 29% 42% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.1 .33 20% .38 65% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Appalachian St. F C D F F 37% 12% 51% B F F+ F F D+ F A+ F D- F D- D- F 15% 15% 70% A- F C A+ A A A+ F A-
0.75 56% 33% 16% -15 +1 0.73 22% 0.5 .11 15% .08 100% .08 1.12 86% 43% 36% +7 -1 1.15 30% 0.7 .20 20% .17 88% .15
Feb
4		 Georgia St. B- A F D C+ 51% 4% 45% A+ B- B+ F D- A- F D- F C+ B+ D A C 31% 35% 33% B- C+ C F+ D+ D D- A+ C-
1.16 69% 0% 30% +2 +3 1.12 40% 0.6 .25 13% .21 67% .14 0.99 47% 41% 25% -7 -2 0.83 27% 1.2 .32 14% .35 68% .24
Feb
7		 Akron A- F F A+ B- 38% 16% 46% C+ B- D- A+ B- A+ B- A+ A B+ F B+ A B+ 35% 17% 48% B- B+ A+ B+ A+ F B A B+
1.23 37% 25% 52% +2 +1 1.08 26% 1.3 .35 11% .30 88% .26 1.08 72% 33% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.1 .26 11% .23 69% .16
Feb
11		 Texas St. D F+ F+ D F 26% 18% 56% D- F B+ F C- F A+ B+ A+ F+ F F A+ F 37% 44% 19% A+ F B D C B+ F F F
0.97 50% 29% 32% -6 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41 1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32
Feb
14		 Southern Miss D B+ A+ F D+ 54% 4% 41% A+ C A F D+ F D F F C A+ F A+ A+ 57% 25% 18% F A+ F D F F+ A- F B
0.98 64% 50% 26% -1 +3 1.07 37% 0.7 .26 23% .31 56% .18 1.04 38% 54% 0% -16 +1 0.71 42% 1.1 .47 15% .29 81% .23
Feb
18		 Louisiana Monroe D- D A+ D- F 42% 6% 52% B+ D- D- D+ D- B- A+ D- A+ D+ B F A+ B- 41% 20% 39% D+ C+ C D C- F D+ D+ D
1.09 57% 67% 31% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 14% .43 65% .28 1.08 48% 73% 18% -7 0 0.89 24% 1.1 .27 6% .35 74% .26
Feb
21		 South Alabama F+ F F F F 17% 2% 80% C+ F B F D+ B A+ B A+ C- C B C+ C- 40% 6% 53% F+ D+ D- A C D+ B+ D B
0.92 38% 0% 24% -16 +1 0.72 37% 0.8 .29 15% .46 78% .36 1.11 58% 33% 32% -2 +2 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 12% .25 69% .17
Feb
24		 Louisiana A+ C- A+ C+ B- 58% 8% 35% A B A+ F+ A C A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F C- D- 30% 28% 43% D- D- F A+ B+ C+ B+ F+ B
1.37 57% 100% 36% +5 +3 1.18 54% 0.9 .46 18% .51 88% .45 1.03 50% 54% 35% +3 -2 1.04 35% 0.5 .16 18% .17 75% .13
Feb
27		 Louisiana Monroe B- B A- D+ D+ 48% 4% 48% A C A- C B+ C+ D+ D D D A F A+ A 47% 16% 37% F+ B+ F D F D F B- F
1.28 67% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 44% 1.1 .50 14% .23 67% .15 1.04 43% 50% 22% -11 +1 0.82 34% 1.1 .37 14% .43 70% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 100.0    100.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 34.3% 34.3% 13.6 0.2 13.7 18.6 1.7 65.7
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 34.3% 34.3% 0.0% 13.6 65.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 34.3% 100.0% 13.6 0.6 40.0 54.3 5.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 24.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 40.7%