Troy
Sun Belt
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.1#242
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#184
Pace69.5#171
Improvement-0.4#212

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#292
First Shot-3.5#281
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#239
Layup/Dunks-0.1#170
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#150
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#290
Freethrows+0.0#186
Improvement-0.1#184

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#158
First Shot-0.3#185
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#129
Layups/Dunks+1.7#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#209
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#211
Freethrows-0.9#241
Improvement-0.3#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 3.7% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.7
.500 or above 37.8% 42.3% 19.3%
.500 or above in Conference 35.2% 37.9% 24.2%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.5% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 16.0% 14.2% 23.1%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.6%
First Round2.9% 3.3% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Home) - 80.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 49 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2021 103   @ Butler L 59-70 14%     0 - 1 -3.7 -5.0 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2021 147   Jacksonville St. W 69-65 3OT 41%     1 - 1 +2.3 -20.4 +21.8
  Nov 19, 2021 329   North Dakota L 72-74 74%     1 - 2 -12.9 -6.9 -6.1
  Nov 20, 2021 345   Tennessee Martin W 80-67 81%     2 - 2 -0.6 -5.8 +4.4
  Nov 22, 2021 222   @ Florida Atlantic W 83-78 OT 33%     3 - 2 +5.4 -0.2 +5.0
  Nov 28, 2021 14   @ Florida L 45-84 3%     3 - 3 -20.5 -19.2 -0.2
  Dec 05, 2021 326   SE Louisiana W 73-64 80%    
  Dec 11, 2021 261   @ Tennessee Tech L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 14, 2021 341   Alabama A&M W 72-60 87%    
  Dec 22, 2021 196   @ Mercer L 65-71 31%    
  Dec 30, 2021 152   @ Texas St. L 60-68 24%    
  Jan 01, 2022 237   @ Texas Arlington L 66-69 38%    
  Jan 06, 2022 227   Coastal Carolina W 71-69 56%    
  Jan 08, 2022 172   Appalachian St. L 63-64 47%    
  Jan 13, 2022 180   Georgia Southern L 65-66 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 140   Georgia St. L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 20, 2022 260   @ Louisiana Monroe L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 22, 2022 183   @ Louisiana L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 27, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 63-71 25%    
  Jan 29, 2022 157   South Alabama L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 03, 2022 140   @ Georgia St. L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 05, 2022 180   @ Georgia Southern L 62-68 29%    
  Feb 10, 2022 231   Arkansas St. W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 12, 2022 288   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 17, 2022 172   @ Appalachian St. L 60-67 28%    
  Feb 19, 2022 227   @ Coastal Carolina L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 24, 2022 237   Texas Arlington W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 152   Texas St. L 63-65 44%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 3.5 0.6 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 4.8 1.1 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 5.3 2.7 0.2 10.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 4.7 3.8 0.5 10.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.7 1.0 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.2 4.2 5.0 1.7 0.0 12.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.9 4.4 1.9 0.1 12.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 2.1 3.1 2.5 0.8 0.1 9.8 12th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.3 5.0 7.6 10.4 12.3 13.3 12.6 11.3 8.9 6.2 4.3 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 83.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 70.6% 1.0    0.6 0.3 0.1
13-5 39.4% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 10.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 27.1% 27.1% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.4% 16.8% 16.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.2
13-5 2.5% 17.9% 17.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.1
12-6 4.3% 11.9% 11.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.8
11-7 6.2% 8.4% 8.4% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 5.7
10-8 8.9% 4.7% 4.7% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.5
9-9 11.3% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.1 0.2 11.0
8-10 12.6% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.4
7-11 13.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 13.1
6-12 12.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.2
5-13 10.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.4
4-14 7.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.9% 0.9
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 96.7 0.0%