Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.4#138
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#117
Pace66.3#258
Improvement-0.2#199

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#178
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#138
Layup/Dunks+6.1#24
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.5#360
Freethrows+3.3#43
Improvement+1.3#78

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#121
First Shot+1.5#128
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#189
Layups/Dunks+1.9#111
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#260
Freethrows-0.8#243
Improvement-1.5#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 16.2% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 85.2% 90.0% 74.9%
.500 or above in Conference 85.8% 88.0% 81.1%
Conference Champion 19.3% 21.5% 14.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round14.9% 16.2% 11.9%
Second Round1.7% 2.0% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 57 - 9
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 299   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 86%     1 - 0 +9.7 -7.7 +19.3
  Nov 12, 2024 78   @ TCU L 71-76 20%     1 - 1 +5.1 +2.3 +3.0
  Nov 16, 2024 178   @ Abilene Christian L 60-72 48%     1 - 2 -10.0 -11.3 +1.1
  Nov 21, 2024 71   Bradley L 68-82 26%     1 - 3 -6.0 -0.9 -5.5
  Nov 22, 2024 108   Princeton W 83-80 40%     2 - 3 +6.9 +14.7 -7.6
  Nov 24, 2024 157   Ohio W 74-65 54%     3 - 3 +9.3 +7.5 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2024 294   @ Texas Southern W 72-59 69%     4 - 3 +9.1 +4.1 +6.0
  Dec 08, 2024 168   Rice W 69-64 68%    
  Dec 14, 2024 92   @ Florida Atlantic L 73-80 25%    
  Dec 21, 2024 235   Georgia Southern W 78-70 78%    
  Dec 29, 2024 161   Texas Arlington W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 02, 2025 195   @ Marshall L 72-73 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 163   @ Appalachian St. L 65-66 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 125   @ Troy L 69-73 37%    
  Jan 11, 2025 250   @ Southern Miss W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 15, 2025 230   Georgia St. W 75-67 78%    
  Jan 18, 2025 250   Southern Miss W 76-67 79%    
  Jan 22, 2025 262   @ Louisiana W 75-71 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 130   @ Arkansas St. L 68-71 38%    
  Jan 30, 2025 262   Louisiana W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 130   Arkansas St. W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 05, 2025 317   @ Old Dominion W 75-68 74%    
  Feb 13, 2025 332   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 206   @ South Alabama W 67-66 52%    
  Feb 19, 2025 332   Louisiana Monroe W 75-61 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 206   South Alabama W 70-64 72%    
  Feb 25, 2025 125   Troy W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 28, 2025 114   James Madison W 72-71 54%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.2 5.7 3.7 1.5 0.3 19.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.1 4.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 6.2 3.8 0.9 0.0 13.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 5.1 3.9 0.7 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.3 4.0 0.9 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.5 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.9 0.2 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 4.2 6.5 8.8 12.1 13.1 14.6 13.2 11.0 7.3 3.9 1.5 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.5% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-2 95.6% 3.7    3.2 0.5 0.0
15-3 78.0% 5.7    3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.2% 5.2    2.1 2.4 0.7 0.1
13-5 18.7% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.3% 19.3 11.4 5.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 51.5% 50.3% 1.2% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2.4%
17-1 1.5% 45.1% 45.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.9
16-2 3.9% 34.7% 34.7% 12.4 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.5
15-3 7.3% 30.8% 30.8% 12.8 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.1
14-4 11.0% 25.6% 25.6% 13.1 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 8.2
13-5 13.2% 19.6% 19.6% 13.4 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 10.6
12-6 14.6% 15.7% 15.7% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 12.3
11-7 13.1% 10.0% 10.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 11.8
10-8 12.1% 6.5% 6.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.3
9-9 8.8% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.5
8-10 6.5% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.3
7-11 4.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-12 2.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 1.0% 1.0
4-14 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.7 4.1 1.5 0.2 85.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 9.8 8.7 17.4 65.2 8.7