Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.8#152
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#115
Pace60.3#344
Improvement+0.7#114

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#148
First Shot+2.0#123
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#255
Layup/Dunks+0.5#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#294
Freethrows+0.9#118
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#171
First Shot-1.7#236
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#74
Layups/Dunks+4.4#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#326
Freethrows-3.7#336
Improvement+0.7#108
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.0% 18.6% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 83.6% 91.6% 77.4%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 87.1% 78.3%
Conference Champion 22.7% 28.4% 18.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.2% 2.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
First Round14.9% 18.4% 12.1%
Second Round1.5% 2.0% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 45 - 8
Quad 413 - 318 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 350   @ Incarnate Word W 75-57 88%     1 - 0 +6.2 +4.3 +4.4
  Nov 12, 2021 10   @ LSU L 59-84 5%     1 - 1 -5.8 -1.2 -6.1
  Nov 14, 2021 75   @ Vanderbilt L 60-79 20%     1 - 2 -9.3 -3.2 -7.1
  Nov 19, 2021 308   Dixie St. W 85-65 80%     2 - 2 +11.8 +6.8 +5.0
  Nov 20, 2021 203   Eastern Washington W 81-74 61%     3 - 2 +5.1 +4.2 +0.6
  Nov 30, 2021 170   @ Rice L 70-72 43%    
  Dec 05, 2021 324   Denver W 72-58 90%    
  Dec 15, 2021 320   Lamar W 74-61 88%    
  Dec 22, 2021 7   @ Houston L 52-72 3%    
  Dec 30, 2021 242   Troy W 68-60 77%    
  Jan 01, 2022 157   South Alabama W 67-64 62%    
  Jan 06, 2022 180   @ Georgia Southern L 63-64 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 140   @ Georgia St. L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 13, 2022 260   Louisiana Monroe W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 15, 2022 183   Louisiana W 72-67 67%    
  Jan 20, 2022 288   @ Arkansas Little Rock W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 231   @ Arkansas St. W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 27, 2022 237   @ Texas Arlington W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 29, 2022 237   Texas Arlington W 68-61 75%    
  Feb 03, 2022 172   Appalachian St. W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 227   Coastal Carolina W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 10, 2022 183   @ Louisiana L 69-70 47%    
  Feb 12, 2022 260   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-66 62%    
  Feb 17, 2022 231   Arkansas St. W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 19, 2022 288   Arkansas Little Rock W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 24, 2022 157   @ South Alabama L 64-67 41%    
  Feb 26, 2022 242   @ Troy W 65-63 56%    
Projected Record 16 - 11 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 3.9 6.3 5.7 3.7 1.3 0.4 22.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.8 6.1 3.6 0.9 0.2 17.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.3 5.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.5 4.2 4.6 1.4 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 4.8 1.5 0.1 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.1 0.2 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 2.2 0.4 4.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.0 4.7 7.0 9.7 12.0 13.3 12.9 12.0 10.0 6.7 3.9 1.3 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 95.9% 3.7    3.4 0.3
15-3 86.0% 5.7    4.5 1.2 0.1
14-4 62.4% 6.3    3.5 2.3 0.4 0.0
13-5 32.7% 3.9    1.3 1.9 0.6 0.1
12-6 10.0% 1.3    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 14.5 6.2 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 62.9% 51.4% 11.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.5%
17-1 1.3% 44.4% 43.6% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.7 1.3%
16-2 3.9% 38.9% 38.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.4
15-3 6.7% 30.1% 29.9% 0.2% 13.6 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.7 0.2%
14-4 10.0% 26.0% 26.0% 13.9 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.0 7.4
13-5 12.0% 20.8% 20.8% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.1 9.5
12-6 12.9% 17.9% 17.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 10.6
11-7 13.3% 12.3% 12.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 11.7
10-8 12.0% 7.8% 7.8% 15.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 11.1
9-9 9.7% 4.0% 4.0% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.4
8-10 7.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.1 0.1 6.8
7-11 4.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.6
6-12 3.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 2.9
5-13 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.8
4-14 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.0% 15.0% 0.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 4.9 4.9 1.4 85.0 0.1%