Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.5 225
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 202
Pace 66.3 243
Improvement +7.2 4

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 251 D+ C- D C D+
Defense C 191 D B- C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 27 C- 56% 235 +2.9 86
2 Pt. Jumpers 64% 8 C+ 40% 102 +4.6 22
Three Pointers 24% 365 D 30% 322 -10.1 365
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 295 C- -1.7 239
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 263
Second Chance C+ 32.2% 127 D- 0.91 328 C- 0.29 224
Turnovers D 18.8% 301
Freethrows D+ 0.28 251 B 77% 41 C 0.22 186
Total Offense D+ -2.9 251

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 131 D- 14.1% 332
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 119 B- 3.9% 103
Three Pointers B- 89% 75 C 0.9% 184
Total D+ 51% 279 F+ 7.8% 348

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 75 C- 60% 239 +3.5 295
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 300 B- 36% 97 -1.9 45
Three Pointers 41% 195 D- 38% 335 +2.2 291
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 314 D+ +2.9 293
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 302
Second Chance C+ 28.9% 119 B- 0.95 71 B- 0.28 75
Turnovers C+ 18.1% 107
Freethrows D+ 0.33 262 C 72% 192 D+ 0.24 258
Total Defense C -0.6 191

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 49 C 11.6% 147
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 52 B 7.8% 47
Three Pointers B- 81% 86 D+ 0.4% 291
Total B- 51% 92 C+ 6.4% 118

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 211 17.3 179
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 104 0.17 183
Improvement +5.5 #3 +1.7 #94

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 246 222 195
Conference Record 10 - 8 11 - 7 12 - 6
Conference Finish 6 3 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 10% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 12% 21% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round7% 10% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 33 - 83 - 9
Quad 414 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 166 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 28% -13  0% 0 - 1 F -32 F -24 F F F D- -8 F A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 163 @Tulane L 71 - 79 27% +6  77% 0 - 2 D+ -5 C +1 D+ B+ B- D- -7 F+ A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 335 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 85% +10  97% 1 - 2 C- -3 D+ -2 F A- B+ C -1 B- C- D+
 Sat, Nov 15 297 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 76% +12  97% 2 - 2 C -1 D -5 D+ A+ F B +4 C- B+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 243 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 65% +11  96% 3 - 2 B- +7 D -6 D+ D- F A+ +14 A+ D A
 Fri, Nov 21 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 76% +5  88% 4 - 2 C- -2 F -10 C+ F F A +9 B+ A- A
 Fri, Nov 28 126 Seattle L 52 - 66 28% -5  9% 4 - 3 D- -11 D- -8 C F D D -6 F A D-
 Sat, Nov 29 305 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 69% +1  50% 4 - 4 D- -13 D -5 D C F+ D- -8 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 233 @Rice L 72 - 77 40% -2  23% 4 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ F C- C- -3 B F B-
 Wed, Dec 10 267 Southern W 86 - 83 70% -2  27% 5 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 A- F F C- -3 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 140 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 44% -8  4% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -9 F+ C C F -11 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 188 South Alabama W 67 - 65 55% -6  4% 6 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 D -6 F A- C- B- +3 B- B B+
 Wed, Dec 31 146 @Troy L 80 - 100 24% -8  12% 6 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -16 B+ +9 C+ A+ D F -25 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 77% +3  80% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -6 C- -1 F+ A- D D -5 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 245 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 42% +0  50% 7 - 8 2 - 3 D- -11 F -10 F C C- C -0 D B C+
 Sat, Jan 10 140 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 23% -5  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 C +0 C- A+ F B- +3 B A B-
 Wed, Jan 14 303 Louisiana W 59 - 54 77% +5  83% 8 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -6 F -12 B F F+ B+ +6 B B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 245 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 65% +3  70% 9 - 9 4 - 4 C -0 D -5 C- D- F B +4 C A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 238 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 41% -3  30% 9 - 10 4 - 5 C- -3 C- -2 F D+ A+ C- -2 C B D-
 Sat, Jan 24 210 @James Madison L 57 - 82 36% -17  2% 9 - 11 4 - 6 F -25 F -13 F F B- F -14 F D- C
 Wed, Jan 28 173 Marshall W 72 - 68 51% +4  72% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C +0 D- -7 D+ B D A- +7 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 239 Old Dominion W 81 - 64 64% +12  99% 11 - 11 6 - 6 B +10 C+ +3 B- D- B+ B+ +7 A- C A-
 Wed, Feb 4 262 @Georgia Southern W 77 - 71 47% +3  52% 12 - 11 7 - 6 C+ +3 C- -0 F A+ C- B +4 D A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 284 Western Michigan W 77 - 61 74% +5  78% 13 - 11 B- +6 C +1 B D- D- B+ +6 C+ C B+
 Wed, Feb 11 146 Troy W 74 - 62 45% +9  98% 14 - 11 8 - 6 B +10 B- +4 A D+ F B+ +7 A- B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 353 Louisiana Monroe W 95 - 84 89% +6  93% 15 - 11 9 - 6 D+ -6 A+ +19 A A+ A F -24 F F C
 Thu, Feb 19 188 @South Alabama W 90 - 82 OT 33% +3  68% 16 - 11 10 - 6 B +9 A +12 A D- B D+ -3 F A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 303 @Louisiana W 67 - 65 56%
 Fri, Feb 27 174 Appalachian St. W 66 - 65 51%
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 -4 D+ -3 B- C- D+ C -1 D B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C+ D C- 45% 64% 24% D+ D+ C+ D- C- D D+ B C C C- B- D- D+ 43% 17% 41% D D C+ B- B- C+ D+ C D+
1.04 56% 40% 30% -2 -1 0.97 32% 0.9 .29 19% .28 77% .22 1.09 60% 36% 38% +3 +1 1.10 29% 1.0 .28 18% .33 72% .21
Nov
3		 Bowling Green F D- C+ F F 47% 20% 33% C+ F F C- F F F F F D- F A- F F 47% 14% 39% C- F B- A+ A- C B B B
0.68 50% 40% 18% -12 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06 1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19
Nov
8		 Tulane C F D A+ D+ 46% 25% 29% C D+ C- A+ B+ B- F A+ D+ D- C- A+ F F+ 41% 14% 45% D- F+ B A+ A+ B- F F F
1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20 1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54
Nov
12		 Texas San Antonio D+ C+ D- F F 43% 25% 32% D+ F A- B- A- B+ A+ B+ A+ C B B- A+ B+ 48% 12% 40% F B- B+ F C- D+ F C- F
1.14 61% 31% 12% -11 0 0.79 44% 1.2 .51 13% .42 77% .33 0.98 48% 33% 24% -12 +2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .37 73% .27
Nov
15		 Texas Southern D C+ C- D D+ 43% 22% 35% D+ D+ C A+ A+ F A+ B A+ B C F+ A C- 47% 29% 24% C- C- D A+ B+ A F A F
1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44 0.94 57% 46% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33
Nov
18		 Abilene Christian D F F+ A+ D 56% 26% 18% C- D+ A+ F D- F B+ C B A+ A+ F A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A+ F+ C D A F A+ C+
1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36 0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21
Nov
21		 Arkansas Little Rock F A C C+ C+ 51% 24% 24% D+ C+ B- F F F B+ F C- A A+ A- C+ A+ 56% 18% 27% F B+ C- A+ A- A F C- F
1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19 0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24
Nov
28		 Seattle D- B- C F C+ 40% 42% 19% F C B+ F F D F B F D F A+ C+ F 55% 11% 34% F F A A+ A D- D A+ C+
0.85 58% 40% 22% -3 -3 0.92 37% 0.2 .06 23% .17 75% .13 1.08 79% 0% 33% +7 +2 1.20 18% 0.6 .11 15% .33 59% .19
Nov
29		 Lehigh D D- B C- C 33% 54% 13% F D A F C F+ A B+ A+ D- B- D- F F 40% 17% 43% F+ F C- A+ A+ C B+ A+ A
1.05 50% 46% 33% +2 -5 0.96 44% 0.8 .33 20% .41 78% .32 1.11 52% 44% 57% +14 +1 1.30 23% 0.3 .06 18% .21 58% .12
Dec
3		 Rice D+ B C- C+ C 35% 44% 21% F+ D+ B F F C- C C C C- F B- A+ B 23% 27% 50% C B D+ F F B- F F F
1.06 67% 35% 36% +2 -3 1.00 38% 0.5 .18 16% .33 74% .25 1.13 80% 33% 23% -5 -2 0.89 39% 1.3 .50 19% .53 76% .40
Dec
10		 Southern D+ B- B A+ B+ 53% 15% 32% A- A- C- F F F A+ C- A+ C- D- C F F 26% 31% 43% B+ F C C C A+ C C C
1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38 1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22
Dec
17		 Arkansas St. F+ F C F F 53% 28% 19% C+ F+ D+ B- C C D+ A+ C+ F D- A+ F F 46% 13% 41% D F F+ F F A+ D C- D
0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24 1.23 67% 0% 53% +11 +1 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28
Dec
20		 South Alabama D D- B F F 38% 16% 47% C F A+ D A- C- A+ A+ A+ B- C+ F A+ B 56% 13% 31% F B- B C B B+ F C+ F+
1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37 0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26
Dec
31		 Troy B+ D+ C A C+ 40% 27% 33% D+ C+ A A- A+ D D+ F+ D F F+ A+ F F 65% 7% 28% F F F F F F F A+ F
1.18 52% 43% 41% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16 1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33
Jan
3		 Louisiana Monroe C- D+ C+ F F+ 49% 31% 20% D- F+ B+ B A- D D- D+ D- D F A+ F F 37% 19% 44% C- F A+ A+ A+ B- B B- B
1.15 59% 44% 25% -1 -1 1.00 43% 1.3 .54 18% .20 67% .13 1.08 68% 20% 52% +12 0 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 19% .27 69% .19
Jan
8		 Southern Miss F F+ B- F F 38% 21% 41% C- F C- C C C- C D- C- C F A- C D- 41% 36% 23% C+ D B+ C+ B C+ D+ C D+
0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22 1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29
Jan
10		 Arkansas St. C A+ D- F C 44% 35% 20% D C- C- A+ A+ F C- A+ B- B- D- A+ A+ B+ 43% 13% 44% D+ B F+ A+ A B- F D F
1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26 1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41
Jan
14		 Louisiana F C+ A+ A B 60% 23% 16% C+ B D F F F+ F F F B+ A A+ F A- 37% 23% 40% F B A+ F B- C- F C+ F
0.97 62% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.19 27% 0.3 .08 21% .21 60% .13 0.89 44% 10% 41% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.2 .19 16% .37 68% .26
Jan
17		 Southern Miss D F+ A A C- 49% 21% 31% C+ C- D+ F+ D- F A+ A+ A+ B B F A+ C 38% 34% 28% C+ C A+ C+ A+ C+ D- F F
1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52 0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Coastal Carolina C- F A F F 34% 45% 21% F+ F C+ F D+ A+ B- A+ A+ C- F F+ A+ C 24% 27% 49% C C B+ B B D- F D F
1.02 42% 48% 8% -9 -3 0.77 29% 0.8 .24 6% .33 90% .30 1.05 67% 46% 25% -2 -2 0.94 21% 0.9 .18 13% .49 76% .37
Jan
24		 James Madison F C F F F 45% 28% 28% D+ F D+ F F B- C+ C C+ F D+ F F F 26% 12% 62% C+ F F B- D- C A D+ A-
0.90 57% 15% 23% -11 0 0.79 28% 0.6 .18 11% .37 71% .27 1.30 62% 50% 45% +13 0 1.28 37% 1.0 .37 17% .21 73% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Marshall D- F+ F A+ D 48% 24% 28% B- D+ D+ A+ B D C- D D+ A- D- C+ A+ B 40% 25% 35% D B- A+ B A+ F A- A+ A
1.05 50% 25% 43% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.3 .39 19% .34 68% .23 0.99 70% 36% 25% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 10% .19 58% .11
Jan
31		 Old Dominion C+ C C A+ B 39% 33% 27% F+ B- C+ F D- B+ A- B+ A B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 14% 45% F A- F A+ C A- F F F
1.17 60% 35% 43% +4 -2 1.06 32% 0.7 .24 12% .41 80% .33 0.93 60% 14% 23% -10 +1 0.84 33% 0.8 .27 20% .40 82% .33
Feb
4		 Georgia Southern C- F+ D- F F 57% 18% 24% B- F B- A+ A+ C- B- A+ A+ B C+ F B- D- 39% 14% 47% C+ D A+ D- A C- D+ C D+
1.11 50% 33% 25% -9 +2 0.88 39% 1.4 .55 19% .39 91% .35 1.02 53% 71% 30% 0 +1 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 14% .37 73% .27
Feb
7		 Western Michigan C B+ A A A 36% 32% 32% F B D+ D- D- D- F A+ D- B+ A+ F+ D+ B- 40% 22% 38% C- C+ C C C B+ A+ F A+
1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17 0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10
Feb
11		 Troy B- A A+ F A+ 37% 44% 19% F A D+ D+ D+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ B A B- B+ 26% 18% 56% A+ A- D+ A+ B+ A+ F D F
1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32 0.97 50% 29% 32% -6 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41
Feb
14		 Louisiana Monroe A+ C A+ A+ A+ 55% 25% 21% C- A A+ A+ A+ A D- B- D F B- F F F 48% 13% 39% F F F D F C D A C
1.48 62% 77% 45% +15 +1 1.34 57% 1.5 .87 11% .19 73% .14 1.31 50% 67% 56% +13 +2 1.30 38% 1.1 .41 17% .36 63% .23
Feb
19		 South Alabama A A- A A+ A+ 20% 34% 46% F A C F D- B A+ C- A+ D+ F D F F 48% 13% 39% D- F A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ D+ C
1.24 70% 47% 43% +12 -3 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 15% .53 73% .39 1.13 69% 43% 43% +11 +2 1.28 7% 0.0 .00 14% .30 68% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 11.7 12.0 1st
2nd 5.8 13.9 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 20.2 3.8 24.1 3rd
4th 1.7 17.9 19.6 4th
5th 8.9 4.5 13.4 5th
6th 10.4 10.4 6th
7th 0.9 0.9 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 21.9 48.7 29.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 39.8% 11.7    0.3 2.3 5.4 3.7
11-7 0.6% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 12.0% 12.0 0.3 2.3 5.4 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 29.4% 14.3% 14.3% 14.9 0.0 0.8 2.7 0.6 25.2
11-7 48.7% 5.8% 5.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.0 45.9
10-8 21.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 21.5
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 15.1 92.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 14.9 0.6 19.5 65.2 14.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.9%
Lose Out 10.7%