IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-9.8	#322
Expected Predictive Rating	-6.7	#267

Pace	71.3	#126
Improvement	-2.3	#312

	Overall	1st FG Attempt	Freethrows	Second Chance	Turnovers	Shot Selection
Offense	#282	D+	B+	C	F	A-
Defense	#339	D-	C-	F	C+	F

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion		Total Effect
Close Shots	43%	#66	1.02	#318	-0.3	#190
2 Pt. Jumpers	12%	#329	0.72	#207	-3.1	#325
Three Pointers	45%	#118	0.98	#216	+1.1	#147
1st FG Attempt			0.97	#240	-2.3	#239
Freethrows	22.5	#11	66%	#327	14.8	#66
Second Chance	35.0%	#65	0.94	#289	0.33	#150
Turnovers					22.3%	#362
Total Offense					-4.1	#282

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion		Total Effect
Close Shots	44%	#56	1.25	#277	-5.0	#327
2 Pt. Jumpers	15%	#329	0.85	#294	+1.3	#93
Three Pointers	41%	#178	1.09	#279	-1.8	#252
1st FG Attempt			1.12	#323	-5.4	#325
Freethrows	18.1	#225	73%	#216	13.3	#230
Second Chance	36.6%	#340	1.26	#350	0.46	#361
Turnovers					17.5%	#142
Total Defense					-5.8	#339

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	2.9%	#31	2.3%	#338
Shot Type Make Effect	-7.4%	#291	8.2%	#310
Possession Length	18.1	#262	16.6	#87
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.14	#250	0.24	#342
Improvement	-2.6	#344	+0.3	#158

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.6	15.8	15.0

.500 or above	0.6%	1.4%	0.2%
.500 or above in Conference	7.5%	14.7%	3.7%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	24.3%	11.6%	30.9%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Home) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 5	0 - 7
Quad 3	1 - 8	1 - 14
Quad 4	6 - 6	7 - 20

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Mon, Nov 3	353 Louisiana Monroe	W	102-82	73%	9.9	1 - 0			+3.7	+13.8	-11.4
Fri, Nov 7	45 @Wisconsin	L	72-97	2%	-19.2	1 - 1			-10.7	+2.7	-12.2
Mon, Nov 10	88 @Grand Canyon	L	59-88	5%	-17.5	1 - 2			-19.5	-8.9	-9.8
Tue, Nov 18	92 @Northern Iowa	L	57-70	5%	-2.9	1 - 3			-4.2	+1.0	-6.9
Fri, Nov 21	268 @Loyola Chicago	W	76-59	25%	8.5	2 - 3			+14.1	+9.9	+6.5
Tue, Nov 25	196 @Austin Peay	L	59-77	16%	-6.5	2 - 4			-17.4	-5.9	-12.9
Tue, Dec 2	229 Lindenwood	L	64-99	39%	-21.6	2 - 5			-41.9	-14.4	-25.5
Sat, Dec 6	109 @Bradley	L	55-84	7%	-13.6	2 - 6			-22.4	-15.5	-5.8
Sat, Dec 13	162 @Elon	L	79-85	12%	4.4	2 - 7			-3.2	+1.8	-4.9
Sat, Dec 20	333 Central Michigan	W	74-73	64%	-10.1	3 - 7	1 - 0		-12.6	-1.4	-11.1
Wed, Dec 31	195 Buffalo	L	74-79	34%
Sat, Jan 3	131 @Kent St.	L	75-90	8%
Tue, Jan 6	172 Toledo	L	77-83	29%
Tue, Jan 13	206 @Eastern Michigan	L	68-78	18%
Sat, Jan 17	170 Massachusetts	L	75-81	28%
Tue, Jan 20	177 @Ohio	L	72-84	14%
Sat, Jan 24	303 @Ball St.	L	69-74	33%
Tue, Jan 27	272 Western Michigan	L	77-78	47%
Sat, Jan 31	100 @Miami (OH)	L	72-90	5%
Wed, Feb 11	126 Bowling Green	L	70-79	21%
Sat, Feb 14	333 @Central Michigan	L	74-76	41%
Tue, Feb 17	195 @Buffalo	L	71-82	16%
Sat, Feb 21	177 Ohio	L	75-81	29%
Tue, Feb 24	172 @Toledo	L	74-86	15%
Sat, Feb 28	303 Ball St.	W	72-71	55%
Tue, Mar 3	131 Kent St.	L	78-87	22%
Fri, Mar 6	59 @Akron	L	74-96	3%
Projected Record						7 - 20	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.0						0.0	1st
2nd													0.1	0.0	0.0						0.1	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1							0.4	3rd
4th										0.1	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0							1.2	4th
5th									0.1	0.7	0.9	0.1	0.0								1.8	5th
6th								0.1	0.9	1.9	0.5	0.0									3.4	6th
7th							0.0	1.0	2.6	1.3	0.1										5.0	7th
8th						0.0	0.7	3.3	2.7	0.3											7.0	8th
9th					0.0	0.8	4.5	4.7	1.0	0.0											10.9	9th
10th					1.2	5.5	7.0	2.0	0.1												15.8	10th
11th				1.4	6.9	8.8	2.8	0.2													20.1	11th
12th		0.2	2.1	7.3	7.9	3.1	0.3														20.8	12th
13th		1.9	5.3	4.7	1.4	0.2															13.5	13th

Total		2.1	7.4	13.4	17.4	18.4	15.3	11.3	7.3	4.2	2.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0							Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	25.0%	0.0			0.0
13-5	7.7%	0.0					0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	0.0%	0.0			0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4	0.0%																					0.0		0.0
13-5	0.1%																							0.1
12-6	0.4%																							0.4
11-7	0.7%		1.5%	1.5%		15.0																0.0		0.7
10-8	2.1%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	2.1
9-9	4.2%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	4.2
8-10	7.3%																							7.3
7-11	11.3%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.3
6-12	15.3%																							15.3
5-13	18.4%																							18.4
4-14	17.4%																							17.4
3-15	13.4%																							13.4
2-16	7.4%																							7.4
1-17	2.1%																							2.1
0-18

Total	100%		0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	15.6																0.0	0.0	100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	2.1%