Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 #328
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #308
Pace 70.6 #150
Improvement -1.2 #254

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #322 C- B C F B+
Defense #316 D- C- F C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #115 1.04 #316 -1.1 #222
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #329 0.69 #258 -3.4 #331
Three Pointers 47% #77 0.99 #212 +2.2 #113
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #239 -2.3 #239
Freethrows 22.0 #14 66% #336 14.4 #83
Second Chance 35.1% #65 0.89 #327 0.31 #187
Turnovers 22.8% #364
Total Offense -5.7 #322

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #50 1.24 #278 -4.8 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #311 0.87 #320 +0.8 #137
Three Pointers 40% #206 1.06 #244 -0.6 #204
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #314 -4.6 #316
Freethrows 18.7 #247 71% #135 13.3 #131
Second Chance 35.6% #331 1.16 #309 0.41 #342
Turnovers 17.6% #119
Total Defense -4.6 #316

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #39 2.0% #334
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #279 7.0% #300
Possession Length 17.9 #239 16.9 #122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #269 0.23 #331
Improvement -4.5 #359 +3.3 #20

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.8
.500 or above 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 5.3% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.7% 14.0% 32.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 15.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 31 - 81 - 15
Quad 45 - 66 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 356 Louisiana Monroe W 102-82 74%     9.9   1 - 0 +3.1 +13.4 -11.6
  Fri, Nov 7 44 @Wisconsin L 72-97 2%     -19.2   1 - 1 -10.2 +3.1 -12.1
  Mon, Nov 10 97 @Grand Canyon L 59-88 5%     -17.5   1 - 2 -20.7 -8.9 -10.9
  Tue, Nov 18 90 @Northern Iowa L 57-70 5%     -2.9   1 - 3 -3.8 +1.4 -6.9
  Fri, Nov 21 235 @Loyola Chicago W 76-59 20%     8.5   2 - 3 +15.7 +11.7 +6.3
  Tue, Nov 25 203 @Austin Peay L 59-77 16%     -6.5   2 - 4 -17.7 -6.3 -12.8
  Tue, Dec 2 234 Lindenwood L 64-99 38%     -21.6   2 - 5 -42.2 -14.5 -25.7
  Sat, Dec 6 121 @Bradley L 55-84 8%     -13.6   2 - 6 -23.3 -16.4 -5.7
  Sat, Dec 13 167 @Elon L 79-85 12%     4.4   2 - 7 -3.6 +2.1 -5.6
  Sat, Dec 20 326 Central Michigan W 74-73 61%     -10.1   3 - 7 1 - 0 -12.1 -0.9 -11.1
  Wed, Dec 31 182 Buffalo L 67-81 29%     -7.1   3 - 8 1 - 1 -18.4 -9.4 -9.4
  Sat, Jan 3 139 @Kent St. L 73-77 9%     -9.0   3 - 9 1 - 2 +0.3 -2.7 +3.1
  Tue, Jan 6 172 Toledo L 61-75 27%     -10.9   3 - 10 1 - 3 -17.9 -16.8 -0.8
  Tue, Jan 13 196 @Eastern Michigan L 66-77 16%    
  Sat, Jan 17 169 Massachusetts L 74-80 28%    
  Tue, Jan 20 173 @Ohio L 70-82 13%    
  Sat, Jan 24 318 @Ball St. L 68-72 36%    
  Tue, Jan 27 271 Western Michigan L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 100 @Miami (OH) L 69-87 4%    
  Wed, Feb 11 127 Bowling Green L 71-80 19%    
  Sat, Feb 14 326 @Central Michigan L 71-74 39%    
  Tue, Feb 17 182 @Buffalo L 70-82 14%    
  Sat, Feb 21 173 Ohio L 73-79 28%    
  Tue, Feb 24 172 @Toledo L 72-84 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 318 Ball St. W 71-69 57%    
  Tue, Mar 3 139 Kent St. L 77-85 22%    
  Fri, Mar 6 68 @Akron L 71-93 2%    
Projected Record 6 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.4 0.2 3.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.7 3.5 0.5 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.2 2.5 8.1 6.5 1.5 0.1 18.9 10th
11th 0.1 3.3 10.6 8.4 1.9 0.1 24.3 11th
12th 0.2 4.0 11.0 8.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 24.8 12th
13th 3.3 7.3 4.6 0.9 0.0 0.0 16.2 13th
Total 3.5 11.3 19.0 22.3 19.2 12.6 7.2 3.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 1.3% 1.3
8-10 3.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.1
7-11 7.2% 7.2
6-12 12.6% 12.6
5-13 19.2% 19.2
4-14 22.3% 22.3
3-15 19.0% 19.0
2-16 11.3% 11.3
1-17 3.5% 3.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.5%