Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.7 308
Expected Predictive Rating -7.2 278
Pace 70.2 137
Improvement +2.0 103

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #330 D+ D+ F C+ B
Defense C- #251 D+ D+ C D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 135 51% 325 -1.7 245
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 333 36% 241 -3.4 334
Three Pointers 47% 48 33% 238 +2.4 102
1st FG Attempt 0.96 259 -2.7 259
Second Chance 32.4% 126 0.86 352 0.28 261
Turnovers 22.3% 363
Freethrows 0.35 55 67% 342 0.23 138
Total Offense -6.3 330

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 49 63% 313 -5.4 342
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 307 38% 189 +1.7 63
Three Pointers 40% 203 33% 149 +0.8 151
1st FG Attempt 1.08 281 -3.0 283
Second Chance 33.0% 289 1.05 226 0.35 265
Turnovers 17.2% 169
Freethrows 0.35 307 72% 147 0.25 301
Total Defense -2.4 251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.2 40 +0.9 336
Shot Type Accuracy -3.8 309 +2.0 256
Possession Length 17.8 240 16.7 84
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 262 0.22 328
Improvement -3.0 #328 +5.0 #9

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.1% 2.8% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.2% 10.1% 32.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 31.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 14
Quad 48 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 355 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 79% +10  80% 1 - 0 C+ +3 A +12 C- A+ F F+ -10 F F+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 38 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  0% 1 - 1 D -8 C- -0 A+ F F D -7 C+ F C
 Mon, Nov 10 63 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  3% 1 - 2 F -18 F+ -9 D B F D- -8 D- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 109 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 8% -3  26% 1 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -3 B D+ F D+ -5 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 275 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 31% +9  85% 2 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +9 B+ B F+ B+ +7 C- A- B
 Tue, Nov 25 157 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 14% -7  12% 2 - 4 F+ -15 F+ -9 F C- B D- -8 F F+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 243 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 46% -22  4% 2 - 5 F -43 F -17 D+ F F F -24 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 126 @Bradley L 55 - 84 10% -14  8% 2 - 6 F -24 F -20 F C+ F C- -2 F C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 217 @Elon L 79 - 85 20% +4  90% 2 - 7 D+ -6 C- -1 D+ D+ D- D+ -5 C- A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 296 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 58% -10  3% 3 - 7 1 - 0 D -10 D+ -4 F+ A- F D -6 C- F B-
 Wed, Dec 31 211 Buffalo L 67 - 81 39% -7  16% 3 - 8 1 - 1 F -20 F -13 F+ F F+ D- -7 D F A-
 Sat, Jan 3 147 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 12% -9  0% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C -0 D+ -4 B+ C F B- +4 C+ B+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 165 Toledo L 61 - 75 31% -11  4% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F -18 F -19 D- D F C+ +2 D A+ B
 Tue, Jan 13 233 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 23% -3  44% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -19 F -16 F+ F D- C- -2 D+ A D-
 Sat, Jan 17 183 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 34% +3  75% 4 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 F -11 F D D A- +8 A- A- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 200 @Ohio L 77 - 80 19% -5  15% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -3 C- -2 B F F C -1 D+ D- B
 Sat, Jan 24 306 @Ball St. L 53 - 58 38% -6  0% 4 - 13 2 - 6 D -11 F -15 F C+ C B- +3 D+ C- D-
 Tue, Jan 27 289 Western Michigan W 85 - 65 57% +12  99% 5 - 13 3 - 6 B +10 A+ +15 A+ B D+ C- -3 C+ B- C
 Sat, Jan 31 88 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 85 6% -3  44% 5 - 14 3 - 7 F+ -15 F -15 C- F F C+ +1 C+ A D-
 Sat, Feb 7 273 @Georgia St. W 75 - 74 31% -1  38% 6 - 14 C- -2 D+ -2 B- F D+ C -0 D- A- F+
 Wed, Feb 11 167 Bowling Green L 70 - 75 32%
 Sat, Feb 14 296 @Central Michigan L 72 - 76 35%
 Tue, Feb 17 211 @Buffalo L 71 - 80 20%
 Sat, Feb 21 200 Ohio L 74 - 77 39%
 Tue, Feb 24 165 @Toledo L 70 - 81 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 306 Ball St. W 69 - 66 61%
 Tue, Mar 3 147 Kent St. L 73 - 80 27%
 Fri, Mar 6 75 @Akron L 69 - 88 4%
Totals 8 - 20 5 - 13 -9 D -6 D+ D+ F C- -2 D+ D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C- C- D 40% 12% 47% B D+ C+ F+ D+ F B D- C+ C- D C C+ D+ 44% 16% 40% D D+ D+ C- D+ C D C D
1.00 51% 36% 33% -4 +1 0.96 32% 0.9 .28 22% .35 67% .23 1.12 63% 38% 33% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.1 .35 17% .35 72% .25
Nov
3		 Louisiana Monroe A F+ A+ B- D 51% 4% 45% A C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ B- A+ F+ C F F F 40% 20% 40% D+ F B F F+ C D C D
1.36 52% 100% 36% +1 +3 1.10 61% 1.6 1.00 24% .46 73% .33 1.09 55% 50% 40% +5 0 1.12 19% 1.7 .32 17% .36 73% .26
Nov
7		 Wisconsin C- C+ A+ B+ A+ 42% 14% 44% A- A+ F+ F F F A+ D- A+ D F F A C+ 29% 14% 57% B C+ F F F C F C+ F
0.98 56% 83% 37% +7 +1 1.19 16% 0.5 .08 23% .55 68% .37 1.32 80% 57% 28% +4 0 1.10 42% 1.4 .58 12% .57 76% .43
Nov
10		 Grand Canyon F+ F F A+ D 36% 25% 39% C+ D D+ A+ B F A A A+ D- C- A+ F D- 43% 16% 41% C- D- F F F A- C F F
0.82 31% 18% 41% -10 -1 0.80 23% 1.6 .35 29% .41 81% .33 1.22 62% 13% 45% +4 +1 1.12 54% 1.4 .73 21% .33 95% .32
Nov
18		 Northern Iowa D+ F A+ A+ C+ 54% 5% 41% A+ B C+ F D+ F A- D B+ D+ F F D+ F 48% 10% 43% D- F F A+ C A+ F C+ F
0.92 41% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 27% 0.6 .17 24% .34 69% .23 1.13 74% 50% 35% +10 +2 1.25 31% 0.8 .23 24% .51 67% .34
Nov
21		 Loyola Chicago B+ C D- A B 32% 12% 56% B B+ A+ F B F+ F C+ F B+ B- A+ F+ C- 45% 6% 49% D- C- A B- A- B A+ A+ A+
1.24 56% 33% 43% +6 +1 1.16 46% 0.8 .38 16% .19 80% .16 0.96 52% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.9 .21 21% .14 57% .08
Nov
25		 Austin Peay F+ A+ C- F F 38% 21% 40% C- F C- D+ C- B B- F F D- F B F F 36% 14% 50% D F F+ D+ F+ C- F A+ D
0.91 75% 36% 10% -9 0 0.85 29% 0.7 .20 17% .32 41% .13 1.19 75% 33% 41% +11 +1 1.25 33% 1.2 .41 15% .40 59% .24
Dec
2		 Lindenwood F F A+ A+ D- 57% 9% 35% A- D+ C+ F F F A+ F B F A- B C- B- 59% 13% 28% F C F F F F F D F
0.86 38% 50% 44% -5 +3 0.98 35% 0.3 .09 24% .53 50% .27 1.33 47% 29% 33% -8 +2 0.91 50% 1.7 .83 13% .44 71% .31
Dec
6		 Bradley F F F F F 36% 17% 47% A- F A F+ C+ F A+ F D C- F+ C- D F+ 41% 15% 44% F+ F A F C+ C- C+ D C
0.76 47% 13% 18% -19 0 0.64 40% 0.8 .33 25% .44 46% .20 1.16 68% 38% 38% +6 +1 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 14% .30 79% .24
Dec
13		 Elon C- F+ F B D- 35% 8% 57% B+ D+ C+ D- D+ D- A+ B- A+ D+ F F A+ C- 57% 10% 33% D C- C- A+ A F+ F C- F
1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35 1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39
Dec
20		 Central Michigan D+ C- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% A F+ B B+ A- F A+ B- A+ D C+ F A+ B- 53% 8% 39% F C- F F F B- B- A+ A-
1.12 57% 50% 22% -8 +3 0.93 41% 1.3 .55 24% .68 74% .50 1.10 56% 75% 25% -4 +3 1.00 41% 1.3 .53 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
31		 Buffalo F B+ A F F 38% 4% 58% B+ F+ C- F F F+ B- A+ A- D- C- A F D 43% 15% 43% D+ D F F F A- F B D
0.98 68% 50% 24% -4 +2 0.98 30% 0.6 .18 21% .29 88% .26 1.19 60% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.17 34% 1.3 .44 21% .42 70% .29
Jan
3		 Kent St. D+ C+ F+ A+ A- 29% 17% 55% D+ B+ A F C F A+ F A+ B- D- F A+ B- 38% 18% 44% C C+ C A B+ C F D F
1.00 58% 29% 43% +6 0 1.14 40% 0.7 .29 30% .59 60% .35 1.05 65% 50% 20% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .30 19% .68 78% .52
Jan
6		 Toledo F D F C- F+ 38% 2% 60% B+ D- C F+ D F D+ F D C+ B- F F C- 58% 19% 23% F D B+ A+ A+ B D A+ C+
0.86 53% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.00 34% 0.8 .26 30% .22 64% .14 1.05 53% 60% 42% +4 +2 1.13 24% 0.5 .12 18% .33 63% .21
Jan
13		 Eastern Michigan F A- F F F+ 35% 16% 49% C F+ D- F F D- C+ F D C- F C- A+ D- 36% 36% 28% A- D+ A+ C- A D- B- F C
0.81 67% 13% 24% -8 0 0.86 23% 0.5 .11 19% .32 58% .19 1.06 76% 38% 25% +3 -2 1.03 15% 1.0 .15 14% .24 80% .19
Jan
17		 Massachusetts F D- F F F 43% 2% 55% A F A F D D A+ C- A+ A- A- A B+ A+ 49% 15% 36% F A- B+ A- A- A+ F D+ F
0.96 52% 0% 26% -10 +3 0.88 38% 0.6 .23 19% .51 70% .36 0.93 48% 29% 29% -9 +1 0.87 28% 1.0 .28 25% .55 70% .38
Jan
20		 Ohio C- F A A+ B- 45% 14% 41% B B C- F F F A+ C A+ C D A F+ D+ 42% 25% 33% C- D+ B F D- B F C- F
1.06 40% 50% 50% +3 +1 1.11 32% 0.6 .19 23% .48 74% .36 1.10 65% 33% 38% +4 0 1.08 24% 1.4 .34 19% .42 72% .31
Jan
24		 Ball St. F C- A+ F F 27% 18% 56% C F D A C+ C A- D+ B+ B- D- A+ A+ C- 49% 12% 40% F D+ A F C- D- D- A+ C
0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27 0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21
Jan
27		 Western Michigan A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 8% 56% B- A+ A+ F B D+ F F F C- B- A C- C+ 34% 17% 49% D+ C+ F A+ B- C F F F
1.40 50% 75% 50% +14 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12 1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44
Jan
31		 Miami (OH) F A- D+ F D+ 39% 16% 45% B C- F F F F C+ F F+ C+ D- F A+ C+ 42% 12% 46% D C+ D- A+ A D- C+ D+ C
0.83 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.5 .09 23% .30 53% .16 1.16 71% 71% 27% +5 +1 1.14 29% 0.5 .14 12% .31 80% .25
Feb
7		 Georgia St. D+ F A+ A+ B- 45% 12% 43% B B- F D- F D+ A C+ A- C F A+ A+ D 38% 27% 35% D D- C A+ A- F+ F B+ F
1.05 41% 50% 48% +3 +2 1.10 18% 0.8 .15 18% .38 73% .27 1.03 78% 23% 24% -2 -1 0.96 27% 0.7 .19 13% .53 73% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 2.1 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 5.7 0.8 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 1.4 10.4 4.4 0.0 16.2 9th
10th 0.3 9.0 10.1 0.4 19.9 10th
11th 0.0 4.4 14.7 2.2 0.0 21.3 11th
12th 2.2 12.1 4.9 0.1 19.3 12th
13th 4.8 4.1 0.2 0.0 9.1 13th
Total 7.0 20.9 30.2 24.3 12.2 4.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 4.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.4
7-11 12.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.1
6-12 24.3% 24.3
5-13 30.2% 30.2
4-14 20.9% 20.9
3-15 7.0% 7.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.0%