Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.9 #319
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #318
Pace 70.5 #136
Improvement +0.2 #174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #339 D+ C- F B- B
Defense #260 D D C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.03 #312 -1.6 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #336 0.66 #310 -3.8 #343
Three Pointers 48% #47 0.92 #295 +1.3 #135
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #303 -4.1 #300
Freethrows 0.4 #31 68% #318 0.2 #100
Second Chance 33.3% #103 0.88 #346 0.29 #237
Turnovers 22.2% #365
Total Offense -7.2 #339

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #43 1.25 #298 -5.5 #344
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #316 0.81 #273 +1.3 #90
Three Pointers 40% #216 1.04 #217 +0.1 #175
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #303 -4.0 #303
Freethrows 19.8 #297 71% #133 14.1 #282
Second Chance 32.2% #261 1.17 #324 0.38 #317
Turnovers 17.3% #124
Total Defense -2.7 #260

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #35 2.0% #345
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.2% #327 5.7% #282
Possession Length 17.9 #240 16.9 #110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #240 0.22 #329
Improvement -5.2 #359 +5.4 #5

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 1.1% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 34.7% 18.5% 47.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 81 - 15
Quad 46 - 77 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 361 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 80% +10  1 - 0 +1 +13 D+ A+ F -14 F F+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 37 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  1 - 1 -8 +2 A+ F F -9 C+ F C
 Mon, Nov 10 71 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  1 - 2 -18 -7 D B+ F -10 D- F A-
 Tue, Nov 18 108 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 7% -3  1 - 3 -6 -0 B D+ F -7 F C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 272 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 26% +9  2 - 3 +14 +11 B+ B- F +5 C- B+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 178 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 14% -7  2 - 4 -16 -6 F D+ B+ -12 F D- C
 Tue, Dec 2 251 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 42% -22  2 - 5 -43 -15 D+ F F -26 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 128 @Bradley L 55 - 84 9% -14  2 - 6 -24 -18 F C+ F -5 F C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 190 @Elon L 79 - 85 16% +4  2 - 7 -5 +2 D+ C- D- -7 C- A D-
 Sat, Dec 20 326 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 63% -10  3 - 7 1 - 0 -12 -1 D- B+ F -11 D F B-
 Wed, Dec 31 203 Buffalo L 67 - 81 34% -7  3 - 8 1 - 1 -20 -10 D- F D- -10 D F A
 Sat, Jan 3 146 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 11% -9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -3 B+ D+ F +3 B- B+ C
 Tue, Jan 6 165 Toledo L 61 - 75 27% -11  3 - 10 1 - 3 -18 -17 D- D F +0 D+ A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 13 197 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 17% -3  3 - 11 1 - 4 -18 -14 D- F D -3 D+ A D
 Sat, Jan 17 174 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 29% +3  4 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -6 F+ D+ D +4 B+ A- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 209 @Ohio L 77 - 80 17% -5  4 - 12 2 - 5 -3 +1 C+ D- F -4 C- D B+
 Sat, Jan 24 297 @Ball St. L 53 - 58 31% -6  4 - 13 2 - 6 -10 -13 F C C- +2 C- C- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 257 Western Michigan L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 89 @Miami (OH) L 69 - 88 3%
 Sat, Feb 7 268 @Georgia St. L 68 - 75 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 129 Bowling Green L 68 - 77 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 326 @Central Michigan L 70 - 73 41%
 Tue, Feb 17 203 @Buffalo L 69 - 79 17%
 Sat, Feb 21 209 Ohio L 74 - 78 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 165 @Toledo L 70 - 82 13%
 Sat, Feb 28 297 Ball St. W 69 - 68 53%
 Tue, Mar 3 146 Kent St. L 75 - 83 24%
 Fri, Mar 6 60 @Akron L 69 - 91 2%
Totals 7 - 21 5 - 13 -10 -7 D+ C- F -3 D D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.6 2.4 0.6 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 4.0 2.7 0.1 7.4 9th
10th 0.3 5.7 6.9 0.9 13.8 10th
11th 0.4 6.7 12.0 3.2 0.1 22.3 11th
12th 0.8 9.5 16.9 5.8 0.3 33.2 12th
13th 5.0 9.0 3.2 0.2 17.4 13th
Total 5.8 18.8 27.1 24.2 15.0 6.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.5% 0.5
8-10 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
7-11 6.6% 6.6
6-12 15.0% 15.0
5-13 24.2% 24.2
4-14 27.1% 27.1
3-15 18.8% 18.8
2-16 5.8% 5.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.5%