Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.7 #331
Expected Predictive Rating -10.0 #322
Pace 71.2 #121
Improvement -2.1 #287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #335 D+ C- F B B+
Defense #302 D- D- C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #125 1.06 #297 -0.9 #219
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #336 0.62 #331 -4.0 #345
Three Pointers 47% #60 0.97 #242 +2.1 #112
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #254 -2.8 #254
Freethrows 21.8 #12 65% #347 14.3 #83
Second Chance 34.2% #78 0.86 #348 0.29 #241
Turnovers 22.8% #365
Total Offense -6.6 #335

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.27 #310 -4.9 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #283 0.86 #319 +0.4 #161
Three Pointers 40% #215 1.04 #224 -0.1 #182
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #320 -4.6 #320
Freethrows 18.5 #242 73% #206 13.5 #121
Second Chance 33.8% #298 1.16 #308 0.39 #327
Turnovers 17.5% #115
Total Defense -4.1 #302

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #38 1.5% #308
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.8% #305 7.5% #312
Possession Length 17.8 #223 16.8 #105
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #254 0.24 #343
Improvement -5.5 #364 +3.4 #29

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 1.7% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 49.8% 30.9% 56.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Home) - 26.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 81 - 15
Quad 45 - 76 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 355 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 72% +10  1 - 0 +3 +14 D+ A+ F -12 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 40 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  1 - 1 -9 +3 A+ F F -10 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 91 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  1 - 2 -20 -8 F A- F -11 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 106 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 6% -3  1 - 3 -6 -1 B D+ F -7 F C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 267 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 23% +9  2 - 3 +14 +11 A- B F +5 D+ A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 189 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 14% -7  2 - 4 -17 -6 F D A- -12 F F C
 Tue, Dec 2 240 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 37% -22  2 - 5 -42 -14 D+ F F -26 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 112 @Bradley L 55 - 84 6% -14  2 - 6 -22 -17 F C+ F -4 F C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 175 @Elon L 79 - 85 13% +4  2 - 7 -4 +3 D+ C- F -7 C- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 322 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 59% -10  3 - 7 1 - 0 -12 -1 F B+ F -11 D F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 199 Buffalo L 67 - 81 31% -7  3 - 8 1 - 1 -19 -10 F F F -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 151 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 9% -9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -3 B+ D+ F +3 B A- C
 Tue, Jan 6 165 Toledo L 61 - 75 25% -11  3 - 10 1 - 3 -18 -17 F D- F +0 D A+ A
 Tue, Jan 13 204 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 15% -3  3 - 11 1 - 4 -18 -14 F F F -3 D A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 169 Massachusetts L 74 - 81 27%
 Tue, Jan 20 193 @Ohio L 71 - 83 14%
 Sat, Jan 24 296 @Ball St. L 67 - 73 29%
 Tue, Jan 27 250 Western Michigan L 75 - 78 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 86 @Miami (OH) L 68 - 88 3%
 Sat, Feb 7 287 @Georgia St. L 70 - 76 29%
 Wed, Feb 11 133 Bowling Green L 70 - 79 19%
 Sat, Feb 14 322 @Central Michigan L 71 - 75 37%
 Tue, Feb 17 199 @Buffalo L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 193 Ohio L 74 - 80 30%
 Tue, Feb 24 165 @Toledo L 71 - 84 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 296 Ball St. W 71 - 70 51%
 Tue, Mar 3 151 Kent St. L 77 - 85 22%
 Fri, Mar 6 68 @Akron L 71 - 93 2%
Totals 6 - 22 4 - 14 -11 -7 D+ C- F -4 D- D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.8 2.6 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 2.2 0.3 5.0 9th
10th 0.3 4.4 4.9 1.1 0.0 10.7 10th
11th 0.7 6.2 9.6 2.3 0.1 18.8 11th
12th 1.5 9.4 12.9 3.8 0.2 27.8 12th
13th 5.0 13.2 11.5 3.0 0.2 32.9 13th
Total 5.0 14.8 21.6 22.4 18.2 10.0 5.2 2.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.2% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.4% 0.4
8-10 2.3% 2.3
7-11 5.2% 5.2
6-12 10.0% 10.0
5-13 18.2% 18.2
4-14 22.4% 22.4
3-15 21.6% 21.6
2-16 14.8% 14.8
1-17 5.0% 5.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%