IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-10.5	#330
Expected Predictive Rating	-8.1	#290

Pace	71.1	#130
Improvement	-2.6	#321

	Overall	1st FG Attempt	Freethrows	Second Chance	Turnovers	Shot Selection
Offense	#290	D+	B	C	F	A-
Defense	#340	D-	C	F	C+	D-

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion		Total Effect
Close Shots	43%	#75	1.05	#300	+0.0	#175
2 Pt. Jumpers	12%	#330	0.72	#205	-3.2	#329
Three Pointers	45%	#103	0.95	#248	+0.7	#155
1st FG Attempt			0.97	#244	-2.4	#244
Freethrows	21.9	#17	67%	#318	14.6	#71
Second Chance	34.5%	#77	0.92	#307	0.32	#166
Turnovers					22.0%	#360
Total Offense					-4.5	#290

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion		Total Effect
Close Shots	43%	#67	1.25	#278	-4.8	#325
2 Pt. Jumpers	15%	#320	0.81	#265	+1.3	#90
Three Pointers	41%	#182	1.11	#295	-2.0	#266
1st FG Attempt			1.12	#324	-5.5	#326
Freethrows	17.6	#205	73%	#203	12.8	#213
Second Chance	36.6%	#341	1.27	#350	0.46	#360
Turnovers					17.7%	#128
Total Defense					-6.0	#340

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	2.8%	#31	2%	#327
Shot Type Make Effect	-7.5%	#293	8.4%	#315
Possession Length	18.0	#255	16.7	#112
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.15	#233	0.23	#330
Improvement	-3.4	#352	+0.8	#132

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.7	15.5	16.0

.500 or above	0.1%	1.1%	0.0%
.500 or above in Conference	3.3%	12.5%	2.6%
Conference Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	31.3%	11.7%	32.9%

First Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
First Round	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 7.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 7
Quad 3	1 - 8	1 - 15
Quad 4	5 - 6	7 - 21

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Mon, Nov 3	353 Louisiana Monroe	W	102-82	71%	9.9	1 - 0			+3.6	+13.8	-11.4
Fri, Nov 7	45 @Wisconsin	L	72-97	2%	-19.2	1 - 1			-10.6	+2.8	-12.1
Mon, Nov 10	89 @Grand Canyon	L	59-88	4%	-17.5	1 - 2			-19.5	-8.8	-9.9
Tue, Nov 18	93 @Northern Iowa	L	57-70	5%	-2.9	1 - 3			-4.0	+1.2	-6.9
Fri, Nov 21	246 @Loyola Chicago	W	76-59	20%	8.5	2 - 3			+15.2	+11.3	+6.3
Tue, Nov 25	198 @Austin Peay	L	59-77	15%	-6.5	2 - 4			-17.4	-6.0	-12.9
Tue, Dec 2	233 Lindenwood	L	64-99	37%	-21.6	2 - 5			-42.1	-14.4	-25.7
Sat, Dec 6	114 @Bradley	L	55-84	6%	-13.6	2 - 6			-22.3	-15.4	-5.8
Sat, Dec 13	166 @Elon	L	79-85	12%	4.4	2 - 7			-3.7	+1.8	-5.4
Sat, Dec 20	332 Central Michigan	W	74-73	62%	-10.1	3 - 7	1 - 0		-12.7	-1.4	-11.2
Wed, Dec 31	187 Buffalo	L	67-81	29%	-7.1	3 - 8	1 - 1		-18.8	-9.1	-10.0
Sat, Jan 3	130 @Kent St.	L	74-89	7%
Tue, Jan 6	173 Toledo	L	77-83	27%
Tue, Jan 13	207 @Eastern Michigan	L	68-78	17%
Sat, Jan 17	167 Massachusetts	L	74-81	26%
Tue, Jan 20	177 @Ohio	L	72-84	13%
Sat, Jan 24	301 @Ball St.	L	69-74	30%
Tue, Jan 27	271 Western Michigan	L	77-78	45%
Sat, Jan 31	102 @Miami (OH)	L	72-91	4%
Wed, Feb 11	126 Bowling Green	L	69-79	18%
Sat, Feb 14	332 @Central Michigan	L	73-76	40%
Tue, Feb 17	187 @Buffalo	L	70-82	14%
Sat, Feb 21	177 Ohio	L	75-81	28%
Tue, Feb 24	173 @Toledo	L	74-86	13%
Sat, Feb 28	301 Ball St.	W	72-71	52%
Tue, Mar 3	130 Kent St.	L	77-86	20%
Fri, Mar 6	59 @Akron	L	74-97	2%
Projected Record						7 - 20	5 - 13

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mid-American Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st																						1st
2nd											0.0	0.0	0.0								0.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0							0.1	3rd
4th										0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0								0.4	4th
5th									0.0	0.3	0.3	0.1									0.7	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	0.9	0.2	0.0									1.5	6th
7th								0.6	1.5	0.7	0.1										2.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.6	2.6	1.7	0.2											5.1	8th
9th					0.0	0.8	3.8	3.7	0.7	0.0											9.0	9th
10th				0.0	1.4	6.4	6.2	1.7	0.1												15.8	10th
11th			0.1	1.9	7.8	8.9	2.6	0.2													21.5	11th
12th		0.2	3.3	10.1	9.0	2.6	0.1														25.3	12th
13th		3.1	7.3	5.6	1.6	0.1	0.0														17.8	13th

Total		3.3	10.6	17.7	19.8	18.7	13.3	8.8	4.4	2.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0								Total

Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	0.0%
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5	0.0%																							0.0
12-6	0.1%																							0.1
11-7	0.3%																							0.3
10-8	0.9%		2.3%	2.3%		15.5																0.0	0.0	0.9
9-9	2.1%																							2.1
8-10	4.4%																							4.4
7-11	8.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	8.8
6-12	13.3%																							13.3
5-13	18.7%																							18.7
4-14	19.8%																							19.8
3-15	17.7%																							17.7
2-16	10.6%																							10.6
1-17	3.3%																							3.3
0-18

Total	100%		0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	15.7																0.0	0.0	100.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	3.3%