Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.7 #322
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 #295
Pace 70.5 #150
Improvement -0.9 #231

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #301 C- B C F B+
Defense #327 D- C- F C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #104 1.04 #304 -0.7 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #325 0.69 #258 -3.2 #326
Three Pointers 46% #88 0.99 #211 +1.9 #116
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #233 -2.0 #231
Freethrows 22.3 #10 66% #333 14.7 #70
Second Chance 35.5% #56 0.90 #321 0.32 #171
Turnovers 22.5% #363
Total Offense -4.7 #301

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #70 1.26 #297 -4.7 #324
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #303 0.84 #296 +0.8 #139
Three Pointers 41% #193 1.05 #236 -0.7 #206
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #315 -4.7 #316
Freethrows 18.5 #240 73% #196 13.5 #245
Second Chance 36.3% #338 1.21 #331 0.44 #353
Turnovers 17.4% #134
Total Defense -5.0 #327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #44 1.8% #319
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.4% #276 7.2% #300
Possession Length 17.9 #240 16.9 #123
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #243 0.23 #323
Improvement -3.1 #343 +2.2 #54

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.8
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.8% 8.2% 1.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 25.8% 13.3% 31.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 82 - 15
Quad 45 - 67 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 356 Louisiana Monroe W 102-82 75%     9.9   1 - 0 +3.2 +13.5 -11.6
  Fri, Nov 7 49 @Wisconsin L 72-97 2%     -19.2   1 - 1 -10.7 +2.6 -12.1
  Mon, Nov 10 98 @Grand Canyon L 59-88 6%     -17.5   1 - 2 -20.7 -8.9 -11.0
  Tue, Nov 18 91 @Northern Iowa L 57-70 5%     -2.9   1 - 3 -3.8 +1.4 -6.9
  Fri, Nov 21 235 @Loyola Chicago W 76-59 21%     8.5   2 - 3 +15.7 +11.8 +6.3
  Tue, Nov 25 204 @Austin Peay L 59-77 17%     -6.5   2 - 4 -17.7 -6.4 -12.8
  Tue, Dec 2 231 Lindenwood L 64-99 39%     -21.6   2 - 5 -41.9 -14.8 -25.1
  Sat, Dec 6 121 @Bradley L 55-84 8%     -13.6   2 - 6 -23.2 -16.4 -5.8
  Sat, Dec 13 165 @Elon L 79-85 13%     4.4   2 - 7 -3.6 +2.1 -5.7
  Sat, Dec 20 328 Central Michigan W 74-73 64%     -10.1   3 - 7 1 - 0 -12.4 -1.1 -11.2
  Wed, Dec 31 179 Buffalo L 67-81 30%     -7.1   3 - 8 1 - 1 -18.3 -9.2 -9.4
  Sat, Jan 3 141 @Kent St. L 73-77 10%     -9.0   3 - 9 1 - 2 +0.2 -1.3 +1.6
  Tue, Jan 6 182 Toledo L 77-82 31%    
  Tue, Jan 13 220 @Eastern Michigan L 68-77 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 170 Massachusetts L 75-81 29%    
  Tue, Jan 20 174 @Ohio L 71-83 14%    
  Sat, Jan 24 305 @Ball St. L 69-74 33%    
  Tue, Jan 27 273 Western Michigan L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 96 @Miami (OH) L 70-88 5%    
  Wed, Feb 11 128 Bowling Green L 70-79 21%    
  Sat, Feb 14 328 @Central Michigan L 73-75 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 179 @Buffalo L 71-82 15%    
  Sat, Feb 21 174 Ohio L 74-80 31%    
  Tue, Feb 24 182 @Toledo L 74-85 15%    
  Sat, Feb 28 305 Ball St. W 72-71 55%    
  Tue, Mar 3 141 Kent St. L 76-84 24%    
  Fri, Mar 6 64 @Akron L 73-94 3%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.9 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.1 2.0 0.3 6.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.8 4.4 0.8 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.6 6.8 7.2 1.7 0.1 17.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 8.3 8.8 2.4 0.2 21.5 11th
12th 0.2 2.6 8.9 8.5 2.6 0.2 22.9 12th
13th 2.1 5.7 4.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 14.0 13th
Total 2.3 8.3 15.6 19.6 19.2 15.5 10.1 5.5 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 4.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.3
10-8 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.0
9-9 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.4
8-10 5.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.5
7-11 10.1% 10.1
6-12 15.5% 15.5
5-13 19.2% 19.2
4-14 19.6% 19.6
3-15 15.6% 15.6
2-16 8.3% 8.3
1-17 2.3% 2.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%