Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.1 #325
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #296
Pace 70.9 #122
Improvement -0.3 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #336 D+ C- F B A-
Defense #273 D D- C+ D+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #130 1.05 #304 -1.1 #223
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #339 0.61 #342 -4.2 #352
Three Pointers 48% #48 0.95 #260 +2.1 #114
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #267 -3.2 #267
Freethrows 21.8 #13 66% #344 14.4 #80
Second Chance 34.6% #71 0.84 #355 0.29 #238
Turnovers 22.5% #365
Total Offense -6.9 #336

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 1.25 #292 -4.7 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #305 0.85 #318 +0.8 #131
Three Pointers 40% #206 1.04 #206 +0.0 #174
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #307 -4.0 #308
Freethrows 18.9 #266 73% #209 13.9 #276
Second Chance 33.4% #297 1.14 #300 0.38 #314
Turnovers 17.7% #100
Total Defense -3.2 #273

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #31 1.8% #331
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.7% #315 5.9% #289
Possession Length 17.8 #229 16.8 #95
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #245 0.23 #339
Improvement -5.5 #364 +5.2 #7

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 6.8% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.9% 14.2% 37.4%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Away) - 14.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 81 - 15
Quad 46 - 67 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 357 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 76% +10  1 - 0 +3 +14 D A+ F -12 F F C+
 Fri, Nov 7 41 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  1 - 1 -9 +2 A+ F F -10 B- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 79 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  1 - 2 -19 -8 F B+ F -10 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 110 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 7% -3  1 - 3 -6 -0 B D+ F -7 F C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 270 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 24% +9  2 - 3 +14 +11 A- B- F +5 D+ A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 186 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 14% -7  2 - 4 -17 -6 F D+ A- -12 F F C
 Tue, Dec 2 251 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 41% -22  2 - 5 -43 -14 D+ F F -27 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 6 118 @Bradley L 55 - 84 8% -14  2 - 6 -23 -17 F C+ F -5 F C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 166 @Elon L 79 - 85 13% +4  2 - 7 -4 +2 D C- F -6 C A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 323 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 61% -10  3 - 7 1 - 0 -12 -1 F B+ F -11 D F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 193 Buffalo L 67 - 81 31% -7  3 - 8 1 - 1 -19 -10 F F F -9 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 145 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 10% -9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -3 B+ D+ F +3 B A C
 Tue, Jan 6 164 Toledo L 61 - 75 26% -11  3 - 10 1 - 3 -18 -17 F D- F +0 D A+ A
 Tue, Jan 13 201 @Eastern Michigan L 59 - 77 16% -3  3 - 11 1 - 4 -18 -14 F F F -3 D+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 172 Massachusetts W 70 - 68 28% +3  4 - 11 2 - 4 -2 -6 F D+ D- +4 A- A A+
 Tue, Jan 20 191 @Ohio L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Jan 24 296 @Ball St. L 67 - 72 30%
 Tue, Jan 27 250 Western Michigan L 75 - 77 41%
 Sat, Jan 31 92 @Miami (OH) L 68 - 87 3%
 Sat, Feb 7 277 @Georgia St. L 68 - 75 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 138 Bowling Green L 70 - 78 22%
 Sat, Feb 14 323 @Central Michigan L 71 - 74 38%
 Tue, Feb 17 193 @Buffalo L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 191 Ohio L 74 - 79 32%
 Tue, Feb 24 164 @Toledo L 71 - 84 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 296 Ball St. W 70 - 69 52%
 Tue, Mar 3 145 Kent St. L 76 - 84 23%
 Fri, Mar 6 69 @Akron L 71 - 92 3%
Totals 7 - 21 5 - 13 -10 -7 D+ C- F -3 D D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.2 2.8 7th
8th 0.7 3.0 1.1 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.6 4.3 3.9 0.5 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.3 5.4 8.5 1.6 0.0 15.9 10th
11th 0.3 6.1 11.6 3.3 0.2 21.5 11th
12th 0.3 5.9 13.2 5.5 0.3 0.0 25.3 12th
13th 4.7 9.5 3.6 0.3 18.1 13th
Total 5.0 15.8 23.2 23.4 17.2 9.6 4.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
9-9 1.3% 1.3
8-10 4.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.1
7-11 9.6% 9.6
6-12 17.2% 17.2
5-13 23.4% 23.4
4-14 23.2% 23.2
3-15 15.8% 15.8
2-16 5.0% 5.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.1%