Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.1 #325
Expected Predictive Rating -9.3 #309
Pace 70.6 #147
Improvement -1.3 #257

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #317 D+ B C F B+
Defense #315 D- C- F C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.04 #311 -0.9 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #327 0.68 #272 -3.5 #336
Three Pointers 46% #80 0.99 #215 +2.1 #113
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #241 -2.3 #241
Freethrows 22.0 #14 66% #337 14.5 #75
Second Chance 35.2% #61 0.89 #330 0.31 #190
Turnovers 22.8% #364
Total Offense -5.6 #317

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #60 1.24 #284 -4.8 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #308 0.86 #320 +0.8 #143
Three Pointers 40% #204 1.06 #241 -0.6 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #316 -4.6 #316
Freethrows 18.9 #261 71% #136 13.5 #121
Second Chance 35.5% #328 1.16 #303 0.41 #341
Turnovers 17.7% #111
Total Defense -4.5 #315

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.5% #39 1.9% #331
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #289 7.1% #304
Possession Length 17.9 #241 16.9 #119
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #265 0.23 #331
Improvement -4.4 #361 +3.1 #28

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 6.0% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 28.8% 12.7% 31.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 15.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 7
Quad 31 - 81 - 15
Quad 45 - 67 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 356 Louisiana Monroe W 102-82 74%     9.9   1 - 0 +3.2 +12.9 -11.0
  Fri, Nov 7 43 @Wisconsin L 72-97 2%     -19.2   1 - 1 -10.2 +3.2 -12.1
  Mon, Nov 10 83 @Grand Canyon L 59-88 4%     -17.5   1 - 2 -19.0 -8.0 -10.2
  Tue, Nov 18 95 @Northern Iowa L 57-70 5%     -2.9   1 - 3 -4.6 +0.1 -6.3
  Fri, Nov 21 251 @Loyola Chicago W 76-59 22%     8.5   2 - 3 +14.9 +11.4 +5.9
  Tue, Nov 25 185 @Austin Peay L 59-77 15%     -6.5   2 - 4 -16.8 -6.0 -12.2
  Tue, Dec 2 238 Lindenwood L 64-99 39%     -21.6   2 - 5 -42.3 -14.4 -25.9
  Sat, Dec 6 116 @Bradley L 55-84 7%     -13.6   2 - 6 -22.4 -15.9 -5.4
  Sat, Dec 13 163 @Elon L 79-85 12%     4.4   2 - 7 -3.5 +3.1 -6.5
  Sat, Dec 20 323 Central Michigan W 74-73 61%     -10.1   3 - 7 1 - 0 -12.1 -1.0 -11.0
  Wed, Dec 31 179 Buffalo L 67-81 29%     -7.1   3 - 8 1 - 1 -18.5 -9.4 -9.4
  Sat, Jan 3 138 @Kent St. L 73-77 9%     -9.0   3 - 9 1 - 2 +0.4 -2.5 +3.0
  Tue, Jan 6 169 Toledo L 61-75 27%     -10.9   3 - 10 1 - 3 -17.9 -16.8 -0.9
  Tue, Jan 13 196 @Eastern Michigan L 66-77 16%    
  Sat, Jan 17 166 Massachusetts L 74-80 27%    
  Tue, Jan 20 171 @Ohio L 70-82 13%    
  Sat, Jan 24 312 @Ball St. L 68-72 35%    
  Tue, Jan 27 265 Western Michigan L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 98 @Miami (OH) L 69-87 4%    
  Sat, Feb 7 304 @Georgia St. L 71-76 32%    
  Wed, Feb 11 124 Bowling Green L 71-80 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 323 @Central Michigan L 72-75 39%    
  Tue, Feb 17 179 @Buffalo L 70-82 14%    
  Sat, Feb 21 171 Ohio L 73-79 29%    
  Tue, Feb 24 169 @Toledo L 72-84 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 312 Ball St. W 71-69 58%    
  Tue, Mar 3 138 Kent St. L 77-85 22%    
  Fri, Mar 6 68 @Akron L 72-94 3%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 7.6 6.7 1.6 0.0 18.5 10th
11th 0.1 3.3 10.8 8.4 2.0 0.1 24.8 11th
12th 0.2 3.7 11.4 8.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 24.9 12th
13th 3.1 7.2 4.5 0.8 0.0 15.6 13th
Total 3.3 11.0 19.3 22.1 18.7 13.1 7.4 3.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.5% 0.5
9-9 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
8-10 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
7-11 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.4
6-12 13.1% 13.1
5-13 18.7% 18.7
4-14 22.1% 22.1
3-15 19.3% 19.3
2-16 11.0% 11.0
1-17 3.3% 3.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.5%