Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#319
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#266
Pace65.2#278
Improvement-2.7#327

Offense
Total Offense-8.2#347
First Shot-5.7#323
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#310
Layup/Dunks-5.3#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#244
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#147
Freethrows+0.2#176
Improvement-2.0#317

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#209
First Shot-1.4#226
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#163
Layups/Dunks-2.0#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#42
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
Freethrows-1.6#282
Improvement-0.7#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 15.5
.500 or above 0.5% 0.8% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.7% 3.4% 1.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 38.1% 34.7% 44.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 32 - 92 - 17
Quad 45 - 78 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 148   @ Washington W 71-64 10%     1 - 0 +11.4 -4.1 +14.9
  Nov 12, 2021 31   @ Indiana L 49-85 2%     1 - 1 -21.1 -17.2 -2.2
  Nov 18, 2021 158   @ Missouri L 37-54 12%     1 - 2 -13.3 -26.3 +10.5
  Nov 21, 2021 156   Boston University L 58-76 17%     1 - 3 -17.3 -7.3 -12.5
  Nov 22, 2021 288   Arkansas Little Rock L 60-67 41%     1 - 4 -14.0 -13.1 -1.1
  Nov 27, 2021 67   @ Marquette L 66-80 4%     1 - 5 -3.5 -7.0 +4.7
  Dec 01, 2021 350   Eastern Illinois W 55-45 78%     2 - 5 -7.4 -19.2 +12.6
  Dec 04, 2021 98   @ Dayton L 41-79 6%     2 - 6 -29.8 -25.3 -6.6
  Dec 13, 2021 355   @ Chicago St. W 66-62 65%    
  Dec 19, 2021 261   @ Illinois-Chicago L 61-68 26%    
  Dec 22, 2021 175   Indiana St. L 65-71 28%    
  Dec 28, 2021 226   Ball St. L 67-71 37%    
  Jan 01, 2022 153   @ Akron L 57-70 11%    
  Jan 04, 2022 69   Buffalo L 65-78 11%    
  Jan 08, 2022 111   @ Toledo L 60-76 7%    
  Jan 11, 2022 165   @ Kent St. L 57-70 13%    
  Jan 15, 2022 266   Eastern Michigan L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 18, 2022 202   Bowling Green L 66-71 33%    
  Jan 22, 2022 129   @ Miami (OH) L 57-72 9%    
  Jan 25, 2022 89   @ Ohio L 58-76 5%    
  Jan 29, 2022 325   Central Michigan W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 01, 2022 303   @ Western Michigan L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 202   @ Bowling Green L 63-74 17%    
  Feb 08, 2022 153   Akron L 60-67 26%    
  Feb 12, 2022 111   Toledo L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 15, 2022 226   @ Ball St. L 64-74 20%    
  Feb 19, 2022 129   Miami (OH) L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 22, 2022 266   @ Eastern Michigan L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 26, 2022 69   @ Buffalo L 62-81 4%    
  Mar 01, 2022 165   Kent St. L 60-67 29%    
  Mar 04, 2022 89   Ohio L 61-73 14%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 4 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.6 3.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 5.0 7.4 4.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 20.2 10th
11th 0.6 3.7 8.5 9.2 5.0 1.1 0.1 28.2 11th
12th 1.9 5.9 8.6 6.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 25.5 12th
Total 1.9 6.5 12.4 16.0 17.2 15.3 11.9 8.4 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.3% 4.8% 4.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-9 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-10 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
9-11 2.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.9
8-12 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
7-13 8.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.4
6-14 11.9% 11.9
5-15 15.3% 15.3
4-16 17.2% 17.2
3-17 16.0% 16.0
2-18 12.4% 12.4
1-19 6.5% 6.5
0-20 1.9% 1.9
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%