Northern Illinois
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.2 #327
Expected Predictive Rating -9.5 #321
Pace 70.6 #136
Improvement -1.5 #263

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #321 C- C F B A-
Defense #311 D- F C+ C- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #103 1.04 #313 -0.9 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #335 0.68 #274 -3.6 #339
Three Pointers 46% #77 0.99 #213 +2.3 #108
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #237 -2.2 #237
Freethrows 22.2 #11 66% #342 14.6 #68
Second Chance 34.8% #70 0.88 #337 0.31 #196
Turnovers 22.9% #365
Total Offense -5.8 #321

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #45 1.25 #282 -5.0 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #314 0.86 #316 +0.9 #132
Three Pointers 40% #209 1.06 #246 -0.6 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #318 -4.7 #317
Freethrows 18.9 #262 72% #150 13.6 #115
Second Chance 35.3% #325 1.15 #306 0.41 #339
Turnovers 17.7% #106
Total Defense -4.4 #311

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #38 2.0% #340
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.7% #281 7.1% #305
Possession Length 17.9 #229 16.9 #112
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #262 0.23 #336
Improvement -4.7 #359 +3.1 #29

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 16.0 15.8
.500 or above 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 5.2% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.6% 19.9% 43.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 16.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 81 - 15
Quad 46 - 77 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 353 Louisiana Monroe W 102 - 82 72% +10  1 - 0 +4 +14 D+ A+ F -11 F F C
 Fri, Nov 7 38 @Wisconsin L 72 - 97 2% -19  1 - 1 -9 +3 A+ F F -11 C+ F C-
 Mon, Nov 10 80 @Grand Canyon L 59 - 88 4% -17  1 - 2 -19 -7 D- B+ F -11 F F A
 Tue, Nov 18 103 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 70 5% -3  1 - 3 -5 -0 B+ D+ F -6 F D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 259 @Loyola Chicago W 76 - 59 23% +9  2 - 3 +14 +11 A- B F +5 C- A B+
 Tue, Nov 25 182 @Austin Peay L 59 - 77 14% -7  2 - 4 -17 -6 F D B+ -12 F F C
 Tue, Dec 2 251 Lindenwood L 64 - 99 42% -22  2 - 5 -43 -15 D+ F F -26 C F F
 Sat, Dec 6 112 @Bradley L 55 - 84 6% -14  2 - 6 -22 -16 F B- F -5 F C+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 167 @Elon L 79 - 85 13% +4  2 - 7 -4 +3 D+ C- F -6 C A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 316 Central Michigan W 74 - 73 58% -10  3 - 7 1 - 0 -11 -1 D- B+ F -10 D F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 192 Buffalo L 67 - 81 30% -7  3 - 8 1 - 1 -19 -10 F F F -9 D- F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 150 @Kent St. L 73 - 77 10% -9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -0 -3 B+ D+ F +3 B A- C
 Tue, Jan 6 178 Toledo L 61 - 75 29% -11  3 - 10 1 - 3 -18 -17 F D- F -1 D- A+ A
 Tue, Jan 13 218 @Eastern Michigan L 66 - 76 17%
 Sat, Jan 17 168 Massachusetts L 74 - 80 28%
 Tue, Jan 20 164 @Ohio L 70 - 83 12%
 Sat, Jan 24 313 @Ball St. L 68 - 72 34%
 Tue, Jan 27 250 Western Michigan L 75 - 77 42%
 Sat, Jan 31 94 @Miami (OH) L 69 - 88 4%
 Sat, Feb 7 290 @Georgia St. L 70 - 76 30%
 Wed, Feb 11 132 Bowling Green L 70 - 79 21%
 Sat, Feb 14 316 @Central Michigan L 71 - 75 36%
 Tue, Feb 17 192 @Buffalo L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 164 Ohio L 73 - 80 28%
 Tue, Feb 24 178 @Toledo L 71 - 83 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 313 Ball St. W 71 - 69 56%
 Tue, Mar 3 150 Kent St. L 77 - 85 24%
 Fri, Mar 6 63 @Akron L 71 - 93 2%
Totals 7 - 21 4 - 14 -10 -6 C- C F -4 D- F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 3.6 3.0 0.4 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 5.4 5.6 1.3 0.0 13.1 10th
11th 1.1 7.9 9.2 2.6 0.1 21.0 11th
12th 1.8 10.1 10.7 3.3 0.2 0.0 26.1 12th
13th 3.6 10.1 8.6 2.1 0.1 24.5 13th
Total 3.6 11.9 19.8 21.4 18.7 12.7 7.0 3.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.2
8-10 3.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.2
7-11 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
6-12 12.7% 12.7
5-13 18.7% 18.7
4-14 21.4% 21.4
3-15 19.8% 19.8
2-16 11.9% 11.9
1-17 3.6% 3.6
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.8%