Ohio
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 208
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 194
Pace 72.0 86
Improvement -0.5 199

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 186 C D+ C+ C C-
Defense C- 235 C D+ C- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 218 C 58% 176 -0.7 207
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 144 A+ 50% 4 +4.2 29
Three Pointers 39% 225 D- 30% 327 -3.4 303
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 253 C +0.5 150
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 173
Second Chance C- 28.0% 251 C- 0.98 254 D+ 0.27 260
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 135
Freethrows C+ 0.32 138 D+ 70% 252 C 0.22 163
Total Offense C -0.8 186

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 252 C 11.2% 192
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 303 B- 3.5% 75
Three Pointers D 78% 305 D+ 1.3% 297
Total D- 46% 342 C 5.5% 181

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 C+ 56% 119 +1.9 242
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 170 C- 40% 251 +0.4 219
Three Pointers 36% 320 C- 35% 247 -1.8 105
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 226 C +0.2 185
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 197
Second Chance D 34.2% 320 C 1.03 187 D+ 0.35 284
Turnovers C- 16.2% 219
Freethrows C- 0.32 235 C- 73% 245 C- 0.23 240
Total Defense C- -2.0 235

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 81 C- 9.7% 220
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 21 C- 4.5% 193
Three Pointers B 78% 43 C- 0.7% 189
Total B 48% 39 C 5.4% 193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 129 17.0 136
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 331 0.14 86
Improvement -0.1 #188 -0.4 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 243 209 174
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 6 4 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 27% 38% 8%
.500 or above in Conference 91% 100% 73%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Illinois (Away) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 35 - 76 - 12
Quad 48 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 140 Arkansas St. L 85 - 89 46% +2  61% 0 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +2 B+ F B- D- -8 C- F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 99 Illinois St. W 72 - 68 31% +2  74% 1 - 1 B- +6 C- -1 A- F A+ A- +7 B A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 41 @St. Mary's L 60 - 90 5% -15  11% 1 - 2 D- -14 D -6 D- A- F F+ -8 C- F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 12 @Louisville L 81 - 106 2% -14  0% 1 - 3 C- -3 B+ +8 A+ D- F F+ -9 C+ F C-
 Wed, Nov 19 241 Bethune-Cookman L 73 - 76 67% -4  10% 1 - 4 D -10 C- -1 C- F A F+ -9 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 105 George Mason L 69 - 92 24% -20  0% 1 - 5 F -19 C- -2 C B+ D+ F -18 D- F F
 Tue, Nov 25 153 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 70 39% -4  38% 1 - 6 D- -12 F -17 F D- F B+ +5 A- D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 346 Maine W 79 - 57 88% +12  88% 2 - 6 B- +6 B +6 C+ C B- B- +2 B F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 173 Marshall W 88 - 81 54% +6  93% 3 - 6 C+ +3 B- +5 B D A C- -2 B D- C-
 Sat, Dec 13 143 St. Bonaventure W 88 - 83 OT 35% +2  70% 4 - 6 B- +6 C+ +3 B+ A+ B+ B- +3 B+ C C+
 Sat, Dec 20 166 Bowling Green L 58 - 68 52% -9  8% 4 - 7 0 - 1 D- -13 F -15 F C- F+ C+ +1 B F+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 274 @Central Michigan W 80 - 64 53% +5  53% 5 - 7 1 - 1 B+ +12 D -5 F+ F+ C+ A+ +16 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 244 @Eastern Michigan W 68 - 67 45% -9  8% 6 - 7 2 - 1 C -0 C- -2 B F F C+ +2 D- A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 6 182 Massachusetts W 86 - 83 56% +3  71% 7 - 7 3 - 1 C -1 C+ +3 A D C+ D+ -4 D A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 213 Buffalo W 91 - 80 62% +4  59% 8 - 7 4 - 1 B- +5 B +6 A A+ F C -1 B D D+
 Tue, Jan 13 169 @Toledo L 85 - 101 31% -4  47% 8 - 8 4 - 2 D- -14 B+ +8 C+ A- B F -22 F F D-
 Fri, Jan 16 313 @Ball St. L 71 - 76 63% -8  0% 8 - 9 4 - 3 D- -11 C- -2 C D C F -10 F+ D+ D+
 Tue, Jan 20 319 Northern Illinois W 80 - 77 83% +5  78% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D -10 C- -2 C C D F+ -8 F B C+
 Fri, Jan 23 76 Akron L 65 - 86 24% -15  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F+ -16 F -14 F D+ A+ C -1 C+ A C+
 Tue, Jan 27 145 @Kent St. L 57 - 72 26% -4  12% 9 - 11 5 - 5 D -11 F -19 F F+ B A- +8 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 213 @Buffalo W 95 - 83 39% +8  92% 10 - 11 6 - 5 B+ +12 A+ +15 B- C A+ C- -3 D- D B-
 Tue, Feb 3 284 Western Michigan W 91 - 71 76% +13  96% 11 - 11 7 - 5 B +10 B+ +9 A B- C C+ +1 D A F
 Sat, Feb 7 239 @Old Dominion L 72 - 78 44% +0  38% 11 - 12 D+ -7 C+ +2 B D+ B F -10 C+ F F
 Fri, Feb 13 85 @Miami (OH) L 74 - 90 12% -10  2% 11 - 13 7 - 6 D+ -6 C- -1 D+ D+ A D+ -4 C F D
 Tue, Feb 17 313 Ball St. W 69 - 57 81% +6  71% 12 - 13 8 - 6 C -0 C+ +2 C- F A C -0 D+ C+ D+
 Sat, Feb 21 319 @Northern Illinois W 76 - 72 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 169 Toledo W 80 - 79 53%
 Tue, Mar 3 182 @Massachusetts L 78 - 83 34%
 Fri, Mar 6 85 Miami (OH) L 79 - 86 26%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3 C -1 C- C C- C- -2 D- D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C A+ D- C 37% 41% 39% C- C C- C- D+ C+ C+ D+ C C- C+ C- C- C 43% 21% 36% C- C D C D+ C- C- C- C-
1.07 58% 50% 30% +1 0 1.02 28% 1.0 .27 16% .32 70% .22 1.11 56% 40% 35% 0 0 1.03 34% 1.0 .35 16% .32 73% .23
Nov
3		 Arkansas St. C+ B- A+ D+ B+ 41% 17% 42% B B+ D- F F B- C+ D C D- A F C- C+ 42% 4% 54% F C- D F F A- F F F
1.13 63% 70% 32% +6 +1 1.15 20% 0.6 .11 13% .34 68% .23 1.18 45% 100% 35% -2 +2 1.02 42% 1.6 .68 24% .49 89% .44
Nov
6		 Illinois St. C- B+ C+ F B 70% 16% 14% A+ A- F F F A+ A+ F B A- B+ F A- A- 44% 18% 38% D B B+ A A C- A+ A+ A+
1.03 66% 38% 14% +1 +3 1.10 16% 0.8 .13 11% .44 56% .24 0.97 54% 50% 29% -3 +1 0.98 23% 0.9 .21 16% .19 55% .10
Nov
11		 St. Mary's D C+ B- F D- 34% 28% 38% D+ D- B A A- F F A+ F F+ B- B+ F C 42% 19% 38% C- C- D- F F D- D+ B C-
0.86 56% 40% 15% -11 -1 0.77 29% 1.2 .34 20% .13 86% .11 1.30 55% 30% 45% +3 0 1.10 42% 1.5 .65 13% .36 77% .28
Nov
15		 Louisville B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 31% 42% D+ A+ A F D- F A+ A- A+ F+ B B F C 35% 15% 50% A- C+ F F F C- F B+ F
1.06 57% 50% 41% +8 -2 1.13 33% 0.4 .14 22% .44 77% .34 1.39 58% 38% 44% +8 +1 1.19 44% 1.5 .67 14% .46 73% .34
Nov
19		 Bethune-Cookman C- B A+ F C 51% 22% 27% C- C- C- F F A A+ D A F+ B F F F 48% 23% 29% D+ F A+ A A+ F A A+ A+
1.08 62% 55% 14% -3 +1 0.98 31% 0.8 .23 10% .46 68% .31 1.13 52% 58% 53% +10 0 1.23 16% 0.8 .13 12% .24 57% .13
Nov
24		 George Mason C- B- A D+ B- 18% 40% 42% F C A C B+ D+ A+ F+ A- F B- A+ F F+ 35% 15% 51% D+ D- F D+ F F B+ B- B+
1.02 63% 44% 32% +2 -4 0.98 36% 0.9 .33 18% .36 65% .23 1.36 58% 25% 46% +8 +1 1.18 41% 1.1 .44 9% .33 70% .23
Nov
25		 Loyola Marymount F F D D F 37% 20% 43% B- F D+ F D- F A+ F A+ B+ B- F A+ A 38% 19% 42% D- A- F A D+ A- D D+ D
0.81 29% 33% 30% -14 0 0.74 29% 0.8 .22 24% .53 59% .31 0.97 55% 50% 23% -6 0 0.90 38% 0.9 .33 22% .30 71% .21
Dec
3		 Maine B D+ A+ C- C 49% 16% 35% B C+ A+ F C B- F A+ F B- C- A+ A A- 46% 21% 33% D+ B F C+ F+ A- A+ D- A
1.21 56% 56% 32% 0 +1 1.05 53% 0.8 .39 17% .13 100% .13 0.87 59% 10% 25% -10 +1 0.83 29% 1.0 .29 24% .20 70% .14
Dec
6		 Marshall B- F A+ A+ B 33% 24% 43% C- B F B- D A A+ D+ A- C- D B A+ A 48% 11% 41% F B F+ D+ D- C- F+ D+ F+
1.21 44% 54% 43% +5 -1 1.11 25% 1.0 .25 12% .46 69% .31 1.12 67% 33% 22% -4 +2 0.98 37% 1.2 .43 17% .33 75% .25
Dec
13		 St. Bonaventure C+ C+ A+ D A 33% 33% 35% F B+ D A+ A+ B+ F A D- B- C+ C A B+ 43% 33% 24% B B+ D- B+ C C+ D+ F F
1.14 61% 67% 32% +9 -2 1.16 24% 2.2 .52 14% .20 85% .17 1.08 56% 42% 29% -2 -1 0.97 40% 0.9 .34 18% .30 89% .27
Dec
20		 Bowling Green F A A+ F F 26% 13% 62% C- F D+ B- C- F+ A+ F A+ C+ A D- C- B 53% 16% 31% C- B F D+ F+ A+ F F F
0.86 70% 60% 17% -10 0 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 22% .57 63% .36 1.01 46% 43% 36% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.9 .32 24% .45 83% .37
Dec
30		 Central Michigan D D+ A+ F F 55% 13% 32% B+ F+ F C+ F+ C+ A+ D- A+ A+ F+ B- A+ A 53% 22% 25% F B+ A A+ A+ B- F C- F
1.04 55% 57% 18% -7 +2 0.92 25% 1.2 .30 16% .52 65% .34 0.83 67% 36% 0% -9 +1 0.86 21% 0.5 .11 19% .37 70% .26
Jan
3		 Eastern Michigan C- A+ B+ D A- 28% 26% 46% F+ B C- F F F D+ C D+ C+ D- A F F+ 33% 33% 33% B+ D- D- A+ A+ D+ F A- F
1.02 79% 46% 30% +5 -1 1.10 28% 0.4 .11 21% .29 73% .21 1.01 67% 27% 47% +5 -2 1.09 32% 0.3 .11 17% .49 67% .32
Jan
6		 Massachusetts C+ B B A+ A 34% 17% 49% C- A F B+ D C+ D- D- F+ D+ C- D+ F+ D 44% 25% 32% C D C+ A+ A+ D B+ F C+
1.16 67% 44% 42% +10 0 1.23 19% 1.2 .22 16% .34 67% .23 1.12 60% 43% 39% +4 0 1.11 30% 0.6 .19 16% .27 76% .21
Jan
10		 Buffalo B A+ A+ A- A+ 43% 26% 32% D A A+ A+ A+ F A A+ A+ C B+ F B B+ 41% 19% 41% C B F B- D D+ C- A+ B-
1.24 75% 58% 40% +15 0 1.32 50% 1.3 .64 24% .36 85% .31 1.09 50% 50% 32% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.0 .35 15% .35 64% .22
Jan
13		 Toledo B+ D+ A+ B- B+ 31% 33% 37% F C+ C+ A+ A- B A F B F D F F F 40% 30% 30% B- F F F F D- C F D-
1.21 56% 59% 37% +8 -2 1.13 36% 1.2 .44 16% .32 63% .20 1.44 62% 75% 44% +17 -1 1.34 46% 1.4 .63 13% .28 94% .26
Jan
16		 Ball St. C- C+ A+ F B- 33% 39% 29% F C D- C D C A- C A- F C- D C- F 36% 23% 41% B- F+ D+ C- D+ D+ F F F
1.06 63% 53% 29% +5 -3 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 18% .35 79% .27 1.14 56% 40% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 15% .55 81% .44
Jan
20		 Northern Illinois C- B- D B+ C+ 42% 25% 33% D- C F+ A+ C D A C A F+ A+ F F F 45% 14% 41% C- F C- A B C+ F F F
1.10 65% 33% 38% +3 0 1.08 24% 1.4 .34 19% .42 72% .31 1.06 40% 50% 50% +3 +1 1.11 32% 0.6 .19 23% .48 74% .36
Jan
23		 Akron F F D F F 38% 34% 29% F F F A D+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C C+ F B C 41% 30% 30% A C+ D+ A+ A C+ F C F
0.88 33% 32% 25% -15 -2 0.68 23% 1.2 .28 12% .42 78% .33 1.17 59% 56% 31% +5 -1 1.09 35% 0.8 .29 16% .42 77% .32
Jan
27		 Kent St. F F F F F 42% 9% 49% B+ F D- F+ F+ B D- C- D- A- A+ F A+ A+ 52% 7% 40% F A F C F A+ F C F
0.79 36% 20% 23% -19 +2 0.68 24% 0.8 .20 14% .27 71% .19 1.00 41% 67% 24% -13 +3 0.81 46% 1.1 .49 28% .68 74% .50
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Buffalo A+ A A+ F B 46% 28% 26% D B- C+ C- C A+ A+ B- A+ C- D F F F 48% 26% 26% B- D- B+ F D B- F B F
1.33 72% 53% 29% +9 0 1.19 35% 0.9 .32 8% .40 77% .30 1.16 64% 50% 42% +9 0 1.20 22% 1.5 .33 18% .46 70% .32
Feb
3		 Western Michigan B+ A A+ A- A 35% 8% 58% B- A C- A B- C A- A+ A+ C+ C+ A F D 52% 21% 27% F+ D A+ B+ A F F A+ B
1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30 1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16
Feb
7		 Old Dominion C+ A+ B+ D+ B+ 30% 24% 46% D B D C- D+ B F F F F F A+ F C- 34% 45% 21% A+ C+ F D F F C- F F
1.11 80% 42% 30% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.0 .26 12% .26 67% .18 1.20 78% 17% 45% +1 -3 0.96 32% 1.2 .38 9% .31 89% .27
Feb
13		 Miami (OH) C- D+ A+ F D+ 34% 26% 40% D+ D+ F A+ D+ A B F C D+ C+ A+ F C+ 48% 20% 31% C- C D+ F F D F C+ F
1.03 56% 64% 24% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.1 .22 13% .32 65% .21 1.25 62% 27% 47% +6 +1 1.15 27% 1.9 .50 13% .45 75% .33
Feb
17		 Ball St. C+ D+ A+ C- C- 36% 23% 41% C- C- D- F F A A+ B- A+ C C A C+ C- 53% 18% 29% F+ D+ D- A C+ D+ C+ A+ B+
1.15 56% 50% 33% +2 0 1.05 27% 0.7 .18 13% .41 81% .33 0.95 54% 25% 31% -6 +1 0.93 31% 0.6 .19 15% .28 57% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 3.5 28.3 19.3 3.5 54.7 4th
5th 0.4 16.1 9.2 0.3 26.0 5th
6th 4.4 10.3 14.7 6th
7th 4.2 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 9.0 30.0 37.5 19.8 3.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.7% 4.1% 4.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.6
11-7 19.8% 2.4% 2.4% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 19.3
10-8 37.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.1 36.7
9-9 30.0% 1.5% 1.5% 15.8 0.1 0.4 29.5
8-10 9.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.1 98.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.5 4.3 50.0 37.0 8.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 7.4%