Ohio
Mid-American
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#153
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#191
Pace68.7#168
Improvement-0.5#256

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#82
First Shot+1.5#120
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#63
Layup/Dunks-0.6#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#66
Freethrows-0.7#237
Improvement+0.6#78

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#251
First Shot-3.1#276
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#131
Layups/Dunks-1.1#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#316
Freethrows+0.1#177
Improvement-1.1#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 6.4% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.5
.500 or above 80.8% 84.9% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 58.7% 64.0% 28.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 2.4%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.8%
First Round5.8% 6.1% 3.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 33 - 34 - 10
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 128   @ Belmont L 69-70 33%     0 - 1 +4.0 -2.8 +6.8
  Nov 12, 2022 180   Cleveland St. W 81-70 64%     1 - 1 +7.9 +14.5 -5.5
  Nov 16, 2022 222   @ Detroit Mercy L 74-88 53%     1 - 2 -14.2 -6.0 -7.8
  Nov 20, 2022 58   @ Michigan L 66-70 OT 15%     1 - 3 +7.7 -3.1 +10.9
  Nov 25, 2022 343   Eastern Illinois W 78-67 91%     2 - 3 -3.5 +2.7 -5.8
  Nov 27, 2022 353   Alabama St. W 72-58 93%     3 - 3 -2.1 -1.4 +0.4
  Dec 03, 2022 78   @ Marshall L 69-83 20%     3 - 4 -4.6 +1.2 -6.1
  Dec 11, 2022 131   @ Youngstown St. W 81-79 34%     4 - 4 +6.9 +5.8 +1.1
  Dec 14, 2022 40   Florida L 48-82 16%     4 - 5 -22.8 -16.2 -5.9
  Dec 17, 2022 199   Stetson W 85-66 68%     5 - 5 +14.8 +7.4 +7.8
  Dec 21, 2022 206   @ Delaware W 95-76 49%     6 - 5 +19.9 +20.7 -1.1
  Dec 30, 2022 317   Chicago St. W 76-59 86%     7 - 5 +5.9 -8.1 +13.2
  Jan 03, 2023 183   @ Buffalo L 72-75 44%     7 - 6 0 - 1 -0.8 -4.9 +4.3
  Jan 07, 2023 243   @ Bowling Green L 79-88 58%     7 - 7 0 - 2 -10.5 +2.0 -12.4
  Jan 10, 2023 155   Ball St. W 76-71 61%     8 - 7 1 - 2 +2.8 -2.3 +5.0
  Jan 13, 2023 73   Kent St. L 65-70 36%     8 - 8 1 - 3 -0.6 -2.5 +1.9
  Jan 17, 2023 104   @ Toledo L 75-90 27%     8 - 9 1 - 4 -8.1 -4.1 -3.3
  Jan 21, 2023 299   Central Michigan W 96-68 85%     9 - 9 2 - 4 +17.6 +19.8 -2.3
  Jan 24, 2023 285   Western Michigan W 88-76 83%     10 - 9 3 - 4 +2.7 +13.8 -10.2
  Jan 28, 2023 108   @ Akron L 77-83 29%     10 - 10 3 - 5 +0.4 +15.2 -15.4
  Jan 31, 2023 302   @ Eastern Michigan L 79-90 71%     10 - 11 3 - 6 -16.0 +3.9 -20.3
  Feb 04, 2023 297   Miami (OH) W 82-71 85%    
  Feb 07, 2023 271   @ Northern Illinois W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 10, 2023 108   Akron L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 14, 2023 183   Buffalo W 81-77 65%    
  Feb 18, 2023 299   @ Central Michigan W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 21, 2023 271   Northern Illinois W 78-69 81%    
  Feb 25, 2023 297   @ Miami (OH) W 79-74 68%    
  Feb 28, 2023 73   @ Kent St. L 66-75 19%    
  Mar 03, 2023 243   Bowling Green W 82-74 77%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 0.6 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.8 0.7 10.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 10.8 13.8 3.6 0.1 29.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 8.4 12.4 2.9 0.0 24.4 6th
7th 0.2 4.7 9.9 2.9 0.1 17.8 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 6.1 2.6 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.3 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.9 12.8 22.1 26.9 21.1 9.2 1.5 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.5% 14.1% 14.1% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
11-7 9.2% 9.8% 9.8% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.3
10-8 21.1% 8.2% 8.2% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.1 19.3
9-9 26.9% 6.2% 6.2% 15.0 0.1 1.3 0.2 25.3
8-10 22.1% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 21.2
7-11 12.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 12.3
6-12 4.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 4.7
5-13 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.8 1.7 93.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 14.1% 13.2 2.0 7.5 4.2 0.4