Saint Joseph's
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#96
Expected Predictive Rating+8.3#69
Pace72.1#104
Improvement+1.1#106

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#165
First Shot+1.3#145
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#232
Layup/Dunks+1.4#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#18
Freethrows-3.0#326
Improvement+0.9#108

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#55
First Shot+4.6#53
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#201
Layups/Dunks+4.2#55
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#214
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#184
Freethrows+0.8#135
Improvement+0.3#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 11.7% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.6% 2.7% 1.4%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.7
.500 or above 91.3% 92.6% 77.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.4% 76.6% 63.4%
Conference Champion 12.1% 12.6% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 1.9% 3.8%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 0.9%
First Round10.6% 11.1% 5.5%
Second Round2.7% 2.8% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: American (Home) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 23 - 44 - 6
Quad 37 - 311 - 9
Quad 49 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 325   Lafayette W 81-60 93%     1 - 0 +9.0 +7.0 +2.4
  Nov 10, 2023 194   Penn W 69-61 81%     2 - 0 +3.5 -10.0 +13.4
  Nov 14, 2023 358   Stonehill W 100-56 97%     3 - 0 +26.6 +10.2 +12.7
  Nov 17, 2023 301   Texas A&M - Commerce L 54-57 92%     3 - 1 -13.7 -20.4 +6.6
  Nov 20, 2023 18   @ Kentucky L 88-96 OT 12%     3 - 2 +9.5 +10.2 +0.4
  Nov 26, 2023 292   Sacred Heart W 64-55 91%     4 - 2 -1.1 -16.1 +14.6
  Nov 29, 2023 31   @ Villanova W 78-65 17%     5 - 2 +28.1 +20.4 +9.1
  Dec 02, 2023 144   Temple W 74-65 64%     6 - 2 +10.2 +3.9 +6.6
  Dec 06, 2023 279   American W 77-63 91%    
  Dec 10, 2023 65   Princeton L 69-70 50%    
  Dec 16, 2023 168   Iona W 75-70 68%    
  Dec 21, 2023 107   @ College of Charleston L 74-76 43%    
  Dec 29, 2023 326   Loyola Maryland W 77-59 95%    
  Jan 03, 2024 173   @ Rhode Island W 73-71 59%    
  Jan 10, 2024 188   @ Saint Louis W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 13, 2024 119   Loyola Chicago W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 15, 2024 200   La Salle W 79-69 81%    
  Jan 20, 2024 85   Duquesne W 75-73 56%    
  Jan 23, 2024 133   @ Massachusetts L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 26, 2024 99   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 31, 2024 98   George Mason W 71-68 61%    
  Feb 03, 2024 200   @ La Salle W 76-72 62%    
  Feb 06, 2024 60   Dayton L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 10, 2024 188   Saint Louis W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 14, 2024 119   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 17, 2024 85   @ Duquesne L 72-76 35%    
  Feb 21, 2024 162   George Washington W 81-73 76%    
  Feb 25, 2024 93   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-69 38%    
  Mar 02, 2024 170   Fordham W 73-65 76%    
  Mar 06, 2024 90   @ Richmond L 67-71 39%    
  Mar 09, 2024 123   Davidson W 72-67 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.8 2.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 12.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.1 2.8 0.8 0.1 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 5.1 2.6 0.3 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.0 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.3 4.1 4.5 0.6 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 4.8 1.3 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.6 4.3 2.4 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.6 3.8 0.5 7.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.4 1.0 0.1 5.3 9th
10th 0.4 2.6 2.3 0.2 5.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.1 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 15th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.3 6.9 9.5 11.9 13.7 14.2 11.9 10.4 7.0 3.8 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 96.0% 1.9    1.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 77.5% 2.9    2.0 0.8 0.1
14-4 54.9% 3.8    1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 22.8% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 6.6 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 10.2% 89.8% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.4% 76.3% 14.7% 61.6% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 72.3%
16-2 1.9% 60.7% 23.3% 37.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 48.8%
15-3 3.8% 34.7% 17.6% 17.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.5 20.7%
14-4 7.0% 25.8% 19.3% 6.5% 11.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 5.2 8.0%
13-5 10.4% 14.9% 13.7% 1.2% 11.7 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 8.8 1.4%
12-6 11.9% 10.8% 10.7% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.6 0.0%
11-7 14.2% 8.8% 8.6% 0.2% 12.1 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 13.0 0.3%
10-8 13.7% 6.4% 6.4% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 12.8
9-9 11.9% 6.3% 6.3% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.2
8-10 9.5% 3.3% 3.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.2
7-11 6.9% 4.1% 4.1% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.6
6-12 4.3% 2.6% 2.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
5-13 2.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.1
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.2% 8.9% 2.4% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 3.3 3.9 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 88.8 2.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.2 19.4 38.7 41.9