Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.0#8
Expected Predictive Rating+19.4#13
Pace60.4#362
Improvement+0.6#134

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#20
First Shot+5.5#48
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#20
Layup/Dunks-0.5#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#32
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#62
Freethrows-1.4#274
Improvement+1.7#63

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#7
First Shot+11.4#4
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#235
Layups/Dunks+5.3#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#39
Freethrows+0.1#168
Improvement-1.1#268
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.2% 2.8% 1.1%
#1 Seed 14.7% 17.6% 9.4%
Top 2 Seed 37.0% 43.0% 25.8%
Top 4 Seed 75.9% 81.7% 65.4%
Top 6 Seed 92.8% 95.7% 87.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.9% 99.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.8% 98.8%
Average Seed 3.4 3.1 4.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.2% 96.4%
Conference Champion 21.3% 23.4% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Round99.4% 99.8% 98.7%
Second Round91.3% 93.4% 87.2%
Sweet Sixteen62.4% 65.8% 56.1%
Elite Eight34.1% 37.0% 28.8%
Final Four17.2% 18.9% 14.0%
Championship Game8.1% 9.1% 6.3%
National Champion3.6% 4.1% 2.6%

Next Game: Arkansas (Neutral) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 6
Quad 28 - 116 - 7
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 308 Lehigh W 75-57 99%     1 - 0 +6.5 -1.0 +8.0
  Sat, Nov 8 137 Towson W 65-48 97%     2 - 0 +15.4 -3.6 +20.3
  Wed, Nov 12 144 Oakland W 78-45 97%     3 - 0 +31.0 +10.4 +24.9
  Sun, Nov 16 28 Auburn W 73-72 71%     4 - 0 +15.4 +8.1 +7.4
  Thu, Nov 20 348 Rider W 91-45 99.6%    5 - 0 +31.1 +18.4 +14.6
  Mon, Nov 24 72 Syracuse W 78-74 OT 87%     6 - 0 +11.8 +4.6 +6.9
  Tue, Nov 25 15 Tennessee L 73-76 59%     6 - 1 +14.5 +20.9 -6.9
  Wed, Nov 26 56 Notre Dame W 66-56 83%     7 - 1 +19.7 +10.2 +11.4
  Sat, Dec 6 122 Florida St. W 82-67 94%     8 - 1 +17.9 +11.2 +6.9
  Wed, Dec 10 317 Jackson St. W 80-38 99%     9 - 1 +29.9 +11.1 +22.5
  Sat, Dec 13 244 New Orleans W 99-57 99%     10 - 1 +34.2 +24.0 +11.5
  Sat, Dec 20 20 Arkansas W 73-69 65%    
  Mon, Dec 29 160 Middle Tennessee W 78-55 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 69 @Cincinnati W 70-61 80%    
  Tue, Jan 6 27 Texas Tech W 73-65 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 32 @Baylor W 74-71 62%    
  Tue, Jan 13 68 West Virginia W 71-56 91%    
  Sun, Jan 18 63 Arizona St. W 77-63 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 27 @Texas Tech W 70-68 58%    
  Wed, Jan 28 54 @TCU W 70-63 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 69 Cincinnati W 73-58 92%    
  Wed, Feb 4 55 Central Florida W 78-65 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 9 @BYU L 67-70 39%    
  Tue, Feb 10 119 @Utah W 77-63 90%    
  Sat, Feb 14 67 Kansas St. W 81-66 90%    
  Mon, Feb 16 4 @Iowa St. L 66-71 33%    
  Sat, Feb 21 3 Arizona W 72-71 51%    
  Mon, Feb 23 17 @Kansas L 65-66 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 65 Colorado W 78-64 90%    
  Wed, Mar 4 32 Baylor W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 51 @Oklahoma St. W 78-71 72%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.9 7.1 3.4 0.7 21.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.9 8.5 6.8 1.4 0.1 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.8 8.5 5.9 0.9 0.0 19.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 7.1 4.2 0.6 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.4 3.3 0.4 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 6.3 10.3 15.2 17.4 17.8 14.6 8.5 3.5 0.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 97.6% 3.4    2.9 0.5
16-2 83.6% 7.1    4.4 2.4 0.2 0.0
15-3 47.6% 6.9    2.6 3.2 1.1 0.1
14-4 15.7% 2.8    0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.3% 21.3 11.1 7.3 2.3 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.5% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.4 2.2 1.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 8.5% 100.0% 29.9% 70.1% 1.6 4.3 3.4 0.8 0.1 100.0%
15-3 14.6% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 2.1 4.1 6.3 3.3 0.9 0.0 100.0%
14-4 17.8% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 2.5 2.6 6.4 6.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.4% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.2 0.8 3.5 6.0 5.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.2% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 5.2 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.3% 99.8% 7.1% 92.8% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 3.1 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 6.3% 99.7% 4.3% 95.4% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 3.3% 98.5% 3.3% 95.2% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.4%
8-10 1.6% 93.9% 4.0% 90.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 93.7%
7-11 0.6% 83.6% 1.6% 82.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 83.3%
6-12 0.2% 41.2% 41.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 41.2%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.5% 16.1% 83.5% 3.4 14.7 22.2 21.5 17.5 10.6 6.3 3.1 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.5 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 91.5 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 73.2 26.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 83.8 16.2