Preseason Rankings
Houston
Big 12
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+24.5#1
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace57.4#361
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.9#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+13.6#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 13.6% 13.6% 18.3%
#1 Seed 44.7% 44.7% 27.4%
Top 2 Seed 68.6% 68.6% 54.3%
Top 4 Seed 87.5% 87.5% 63.5%
Top 6 Seed 94.8% 94.8% 72.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.1% 99.1% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 98.5% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.3 2.3 4.0
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.7% 98.7% 100.0%
Conference Champion 52.2% 52.2% 27.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
First Round98.9% 98.9% 100.0%
Second Round95.4% 95.4% 81.7%
Sweet Sixteen76.3% 76.3% 45.4%
Elite Eight55.2% 55.2% 36.3%
Final Four37.1% 37.1% 27.4%
Championship Game24.2% 24.2% 9.1%
National Champion15.1% 15.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Lehigh (Home) - 100.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 111 - 4
Quad 27 - 018 - 5
Quad 35 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 306   Lehigh W 81-45 100.0%   
  Nov 08, 2025 131   Towson W 73-47 99%    
  Nov 12, 2025 197   Oakland W 76-46 99.7%   
  Nov 16, 2025 22   Auburn W 70-61 78%    
  Nov 20, 2025 313   Rider W 79-43 99.9%   
  Nov 24, 2025 64   Syracuse W 74-59 92%    
  Nov 25, 2025 16   Tennessee W 63-56 73%    
  Dec 06, 2025 78   Florida St. W 74-57 93%    
  Dec 10, 2025 238   Jackson St. W 80-48 99.7%   
  Dec 13, 2025 312   New Orleans W 85-49 99.9%   
  Dec 20, 2025 17   Arkansas W 69-61 74%    
  Dec 29, 2025 147   Middle Tennessee W 77-50 99%    
  Jan 03, 2026 45   @ Cincinnati W 66-56 79%    
  Jan 06, 2026 12   Texas Tech W 69-59 79%    
  Jan 10, 2026 23   @ Baylor W 65-59 70%    
  Jan 13, 2026 61   West Virginia W 69-51 94%    
  Jan 18, 2026 68   Arizona St. W 74-55 95%    
  Jan 24, 2026 12   @ Texas Tech W 66-62 62%    
  Jan 28, 2026 55   @ TCU W 68-56 84%    
  Jan 31, 2026 45   Cincinnati W 69-53 90%    
  Feb 04, 2026 74   Central Florida W 78-58 95%    
  Feb 07, 2026 9   @ BYU W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 10, 2026 88   @ Utah W 73-57 90%    
  Feb 14, 2026 57   Kansas St. W 72-54 93%    
  Feb 16, 2026 20   @ Iowa St. W 66-61 66%    
  Feb 21, 2026 10   Arizona W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 23, 2026 13   @ Kansas W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 28, 2026 82   Colorado W 73-52 96%    
  Mar 04, 2026 23   Baylor W 68-56 84%    
  Mar 07, 2026 73   @ Oklahoma St. W 75-61 87%    
Projected Record 26 - 4 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.5 9.9 15.6 14.8 7.9 52.2 1st
2nd 0.4 2.9 7.0 6.7 2.6 0.3 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.4 3.2 0.8 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.1 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.5 7.3 10.2 14.1 17.3 18.2 15.0 7.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 7.9    7.9
17-1 98.2% 14.8    13.4 1.3 0.0
16-2 85.7% 15.6    11.4 4.0 0.3
15-3 57.1% 9.9    4.8 4.1 1.0 0.1
14-4 24.8% 3.5    0.9 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
13-5 4.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.2% 52.2 38.4 11.0 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 7.9% 100.0% 70.5% 29.5% 1.1 7.0 0.8 0.0 100.0%
17-1 15.0% 100.0% 58.5% 41.5% 1.2 12.2 2.7 0.1 100.0%
16-2 18.2% 100.0% 50.9% 49.1% 1.4 12.4 5.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
15-3 17.3% 100.0% 40.3% 59.7% 1.7 8.3 6.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 14.1% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 2.3 3.6 5.2 3.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.2% 99.9% 23.1% 76.8% 3.1 1.0 2.5 3.1 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 7.3% 99.8% 16.5% 83.3% 4.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 4.5% 99.1% 12.1% 87.0% 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
10-8 2.7% 97.2% 6.8% 90.4% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.9%
9-9 1.4% 89.9% 4.0% 85.9% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 89.5%
8-10 0.7% 75.1% 3.3% 71.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 74.3%
7-11 0.3% 36.1% 0.0% 36.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 36.1%
6-12 0.2% 7.8% 7.8% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8%
5-13 0.1% 5.8% 5.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 5.8%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.1% 39.3% 59.8% 2.3 44.7 24.0 11.8 7.1 4.4 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 100.0% 1.1 91.6 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 88.3 11.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 87.3 12.7