Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.8#73
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#146
Pace74.9#59
Improvement+1.5#77

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#105
First Shot+1.6#131
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#114
Layup/Dunks+4.2#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#316
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#265
Freethrows+2.2#66
Improvement+0.0#186

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#48
First Shot+4.0#62
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#111
Layups/Dunks+2.8#80
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#26
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#219
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement+1.5#51
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 27.0% 17.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 2.8% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 12.0
.500 or above 78.6% 80.8% 58.9%
.500 or above in Conference 91.8% 92.6% 84.9%
Conference Champion 32.6% 33.9% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 0.7%
First Round25.6% 26.5% 17.5%
Second Round7.2% 7.6% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 90.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 44 - 10
Quad 38 - 313 - 13
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 89 San Francisco W 76-70 68%     1 - 0 +9.0 +0.0 +8.7
  Tue, Nov 11 51 @Mississippi L 77-83 29%     1 - 1 +7.4 +12.1 -4.9
  Sun, Nov 16 131 UNLV L 78-92 80%     1 - 2 -15.0 -6.6 -6.6
  Thu, Nov 20 3 Purdue L 71-80 9%     1 - 3 +13.3 +8.2 +4.7
  Fri, Nov 21 41 Wake Forest L 68-69 34%     1 - 4 +10.9 +4.1 +6.8
  Wed, Nov 26 144 Southern Illinois W 74-58 82%     2 - 4 +13.9 -0.1 +14.0
  Wed, Dec 3 205 New Orleans W 83-69 90%    
  Sat, Dec 6 27 Baylor L 77-80 39%    
  Sat, Dec 13 9 @Louisville L 73-87 9%    
  Wed, Dec 17 13 Vanderbilt L 78-85 25%    
  Sat, Dec 20 85 @Mississippi St. L 75-77 44%    
  Mon, Dec 22 264 Alabama St. W 84-67 94%    
  Wed, Dec 31 124 North Texas W 71-63 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 214 @Rice W 76-68 77%    
  Sun, Jan 11 112 @Florida Atlantic W 77-76 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 149 Temple W 85-74 83%    
  Sun, Jan 18 230 Texas San Antonio W 84-69 91%    
  Wed, Jan 21 91 @Tulsa L 74-75 46%    
  Sat, Jan 24 101 @Wichita St. L 73-74 50%    
  Thu, Jan 29 112 Florida Atlantic W 80-73 74%    
  Sun, Feb 1 156 Tulane W 83-72 83%    
  Thu, Feb 5 106 @UAB W 79-78 52%    
  Sun, Feb 8 201 Charlotte W 79-66 88%    
  Thu, Feb 12 124 @North Texas W 68-66 58%    
  Sat, Feb 14 44 @Utah St. L 74-81 26%    
  Thu, Feb 19 87 @South Florida L 81-82 45%    
  Sun, Feb 22 106 UAB W 81-75 72%    
  Thu, Feb 26 101 Wichita St. W 76-70 70%    
  Sun, Mar 1 253 @East Carolina W 80-70 81%    
  Thu, Mar 5 87 South Florida W 84-79 66%    
  Sun, Mar 8 156 @Tulane W 80-75 68%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.7 8.0 9.1 6.8 3.4 0.9 32.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.3 7.6 5.0 1.5 0.1 19.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 13.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 4.9 2.6 0.2 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.1 6.1 9.4 12.0 14.2 14.7 13.6 10.6 6.9 3.4 0.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 100.0% 3.4    3.3 0.0
16-2 98.0% 6.8    6.2 0.6
15-3 85.4% 9.1    6.9 2.1 0.1
14-4 59.0% 8.0    4.0 3.2 0.7 0.1
13-5 25.3% 3.7    0.9 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.6% 32.6 22.3 7.8 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 77.2% 61.4% 15.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 41.0%
17-1 3.4% 67.6% 52.8% 14.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.1 31.3%
16-2 6.9% 51.1% 42.2% 8.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.4 15.4%
15-3 10.6% 43.3% 39.8% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 6.0 5.8%
14-4 13.6% 32.9% 31.4% 1.5% 11.4 0.1 0.3 2.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 9.1 2.2%
13-5 14.7% 27.3% 26.8% 0.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 10.7 0.7%
12-6 14.2% 21.0% 20.9% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.2 0.1%
11-7 12.0% 16.2% 16.2% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 10.0 0.0%
10-8 9.4% 9.7% 9.7% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.5
9-9 6.1% 5.5% 5.5% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
8-10 4.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.9
7-11 2.2% 4.3% 4.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1
6-12 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.5% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 26.1% 24.2% 1.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.2 10.3 8.2 1.9 0.6 0.5 0.2 73.9 2.5%