Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 #102
Expected Predictive Rating +3.8 #105
Pace 73.0 #75
Improvement -4.3 #339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #207 C B+ D- C- C
Defense #36 B C+ B+ C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #129 1.19 #146 +1.7 #119
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #166 0.68 #291 -0.6 #213
Three Pointers 39% #229 0.99 #221 -1.7 #242
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #195 -0.7 #194
Freethrows 0.29 #231 70% #266 0.20 #248
Second Chance 36.8% #29 1.16 #54 0.43 #28
Turnovers 19.2% #334
Total Offense -1.4 #207

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 1.18 #210 +3.0 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #116 0.63 #16 +0.8 #131
Three Pointers 45% #65 0.86 #25 +1.4 #131
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #42 +5.2 #42
Freethrows 0.31 #207 72% #142 0.22 #200
Second Chance 32.1% #257 0.92 #37 0.29 #111
Turnovers 19.8% #29
Total Defense +6.5 #36

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #180 -1.2% #77
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #201 -9.0% #37
Possession Length 16.1 #68 18.0 #288
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #52 0.19 #258
Improvement -5.3 #360 +0.9 #132

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 12.7% 8.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.8
.500 or above 64.1% 74.7% 47.8%
.500 or above in Conference 88.2% 94.0% 79.2%
Conference Champion 7.9% 11.9% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.0% 12.7% 8.3%
Second Round1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 60.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 38 - 410 - 16
Quad 47 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 97 San Francisco W 76 - 70 60% +9  1 - 0 +8 +0 C A+ F +8 C+ A- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 63 @Mississippi L 77 - 83 26% -5  1 - 1 +6 +13 A+ F+ A+ -8 F+ C D+
 Sun, Nov 16 117 UNLV L 78 - 92 69% -11  1 - 2 -14 -5 D- B+ F -7 D- A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 7 Purdue L 71 - 80 8% -1  1 - 3 +12 +8 C- A+ C +4 C+ A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 21 66 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 37% +5  1 - 4 +8 +3 B+ B- F+ +5 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 144 Southern Illinois W 74 - 58 75% +11  2 - 4 +14 +3 C A+ F +11 A+ C- B-
 Wed, Dec 3 242 New Orleans W 86 - 70 87% +16  3 - 4 +9 +6 A+ F+ F +3 B- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 44 Baylor W 78 - 71 37% +2  4 - 4 +16 +5 D- A+ A- +10 A+ A- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 17 @Louisville L 73 - 99 8% -17  4 - 5 -5 +7 D A+ B -12 F F B
 Wed, Dec 17 15 Vanderbilt L 70 - 77 OT 17% -3  4 - 6 +8 -10 D C- F+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 86 @Mississippi St. L 66 - 71 32% -4  4 - 7 +5 -1 D- A+ F +6 B- A- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 298 Alabama St. W 88 - 67 92% +13  5 - 7 +10 +6 A- C F +3 A F+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 140 North Texas W 57 - 48 74% +8  6 - 7 1 - 0 +7 -9 B B- F +16 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 239 @Rice W 76 - 70 73% -1  7 - 7 2 - 0 +5 +7 F A+ F -2 B D B+
 Sun, Jan 11 101 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 89 38% -8  7 - 8 2 - 1 -3 +1 B- D+ C- -3 C F+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 143 Temple W 55 - 53 75% +4  8 - 8 3 - 1 +0 -15 F C D +15 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 344 Texas San Antonio W 95 - 69 96% +12  9 - 8 4 - 1 +11 +13 A+ D+ C- -2 D+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 74 @Tulsa L 66 - 83 29% -3  9 - 9 4 - 2 -6 -2 F+ B F -6 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 24 99 @Wichita St. L 59 - 74 38% -13  9 - 10 4 - 3 -7 -11 F B+ F +5 C A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 101 Florida Atlantic W 76 - 73 61%
 Sun, Feb 1 173 Tulane W 76 - 67 81%
 Thu, Feb 5 118 @UAB L 74 - 75 47%
 Sun, Feb 8 171 Charlotte W 75 - 66 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 140 @North Texas W 64 - 63 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 40 @Utah St. L 68 - 79 16%
 Thu, Feb 19 68 @South Florida L 74 - 80 29%
 Sun, Feb 22 118 UAB W 77 - 72 68%
 Thu, Feb 26 99 Wichita St. W 72 - 69 61%
 Sun, Mar 1 254 @East Carolina W 74 - 67 75%
 Thu, Mar 5 68 South Florida L 77 - 78 50%
 Sun, Mar 8 173 @Tulane W 73 - 70 62%
Totals 16 - 15 11 - 7 +5 -1 C B+ D- +6 B C+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.7 3.3 3.2 0.8 7.9 1st
2nd 0.4 4.7 5.5 1.0 0.0 11.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.4 8.7 1.6 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 9.5 3.6 0.0 14.7 4th
5th 0.4 6.4 6.8 0.2 13.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.7 8.1 1.3 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 6.1 3.2 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.4 3.2 4.0 0.3 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 7.4 13.8 19.6 21.4 18.0 10.5 4.3 0.8 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 98.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1
14-4 76.0% 3.2    1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 31.2% 3.3    0.5 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.9% 7.9 2.7 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.8% 25.3% 25.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6
14-4 4.3% 23.9% 23.8% 0.1% 11.7 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.2%
13-5 10.5% 19.3% 19.3% 11.9 0.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.4
12-6 18.0% 16.8% 16.8% 12.1 0.3 2.1 0.6 0.1 15.0
11-7 21.4% 10.9% 10.9% 12.5 0.1 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 19.1
10-8 19.6% 6.4% 6.4% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 18.3
9-9 13.8% 5.3% 5.3% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 13.1
8-10 7.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.1
7-11 3.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 3.1
6-12 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 12.4 89.0 0.0%