Preseason Rankings
Texas Tech
Big 12
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.8#12
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.1#264
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.4#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
#1 Seed 9.4% 9.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 20.3% 20.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 43.0% 43.1% 5.8%
Top 6 Seed 61.1% 61.2% 21.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.5% 84.5% 43.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 82.8% 82.8% 43.1%
Average Seed 4.8 4.8 6.9
.500 or above 94.5% 94.6% 56.9%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 83.4% 53.0%
Conference Champion 11.7% 11.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 1.9%
First Four3.6% 3.6% 5.9%
First Round82.8% 82.9% 39.1%
Second Round68.0% 68.0% 25.5%
Sweet Sixteen39.9% 39.9% 15.7%
Elite Eight20.2% 20.3% 3.9%
Final Four10.0% 10.1% 2.0%
Championship Game4.9% 4.9% 2.0%
National Champion2.3% 2.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Lindenwood (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 112 - 9
Quad 34 - 017 - 10
Quad 45 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 327   Lindenwood W 87-56 99.8%   
  Nov 07, 2025 194   Sam Houston St. W 83-60 98%    
  Nov 11, 2025 15   @ Illinois L 75-78 41%    
  Nov 14, 2025 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 84-60 98%    
  Nov 20, 2025 67   Wake Forest W 75-66 79%    
  Nov 26, 2025 312   New Orleans W 89-60 99%    
  Nov 30, 2025 155   Wyoming W 78-57 97%    
  Dec 07, 2025 52   LSU W 75-68 74%    
  Dec 13, 2025 17   Arkansas W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 16, 2025 190   Northern Colorado W 85-62 97%    
  Dec 20, 2025 3   Duke L 68-72 36%    
  Dec 28, 2025 161   Winthrop W 88-67 97%    
  Jan 03, 2026 73   Oklahoma St. W 82-69 86%    
  Jan 06, 2026 1   @ Houston L 59-69 21%    
  Jan 10, 2026 82   @ Colorado W 74-66 75%    
  Jan 14, 2026 88   Utah W 80-65 90%    
  Jan 17, 2026 9   BYU W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 20, 2026 23   @ Baylor L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 24, 2026 1   Houston L 62-66 38%    
  Jan 31, 2026 74   @ Central Florida W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 02, 2026 13   Kansas W 73-70 61%    
  Feb 08, 2026 61   @ West Virginia W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 11, 2026 82   Colorado W 77-63 88%    
  Feb 14, 2026 10   @ Arizona L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 17, 2026 68   @ Arizona St. W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 21, 2026 57   Kansas St. W 75-64 83%    
  Feb 24, 2026 45   Cincinnati W 72-63 77%    
  Feb 28, 2026 20   @ Iowa St. L 70-72 44%    
  Mar 03, 2026 55   TCU W 74-63 82%    
  Mar 07, 2026 9   @ BYU L 72-76 39%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.5 3.7 2.2 0.5 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.7 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.4 2.7 5.7 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.4 2.7 3.5 0.8 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.3 0.1 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.9 4.3 6.8 8.7 11.3 12.4 13.3 12.5 10.6 7.4 4.4 2.2 0.5 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
17-1 99.1% 2.2    2.0 0.2
16-2 83.3% 3.7    2.6 1.1 0.1
15-3 46.7% 3.5    1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 15.1% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.7 3.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.5% 100.0% 59.2% 40.8% 1.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
17-1 2.2% 100.0% 42.8% 57.2% 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.4% 100.0% 33.5% 66.5% 1.6 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.4% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 2.0 2.6 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.6% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.7 1.6 3.2 3.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.5% 99.9% 11.4% 88.6% 3.7 0.6 1.9 3.3 3.3 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 13.3% 99.6% 7.6% 92.0% 4.8 0.2 0.6 2.3 3.3 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 99.6%
11-7 12.4% 98.1% 4.2% 93.9% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 98.0%
10-8 11.3% 90.9% 2.1% 88.8% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.0 90.7%
9-9 8.7% 77.9% 1.1% 76.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 1.9 77.6%
8-10 6.8% 47.8% 0.4% 47.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.0 3.6 47.6%
7-11 4.3% 20.9% 0.4% 20.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 3.4 20.6%
6-12 2.9% 5.5% 0.1% 5.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7 5.4%
5-13 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 1.4 0.8%
4-14 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 11.0 0.0 0.7 0.5%
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 84.5% 9.8% 74.6% 4.8 9.4 11.0 11.4 11.4 9.7 8.3 7.1 5.6 4.5 3.9 2.3 0.1 15.5 82.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 86.0 14.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 80.1 19.9