Louisiana
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.3 #315
Expected Predictive Rating -11.7 #333
Pace 61.3 #352
Improvement +2.3 #65

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #336 D- F D+ F F
Defense #252 D+ C- C F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #357 1.01 #330 -7.8 #358
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #17 0.80 #112 +4.9 #14
Three Pointers 40% #210 0.92 #286 -2.5 #272
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #324 -5.3 #325
Freethrows 13.3 #340 67% #320 8.9 #350
Second Chance 25.6% #312 0.83 #355 0.21 #353
Turnovers 17.9% #260
Total Offense -6.8 #336

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #26 1.18 #203 -4.5 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #347 0.58 #10 +3.7 #4
Three Pointers 41% #203 1.11 #300 -1.7 #261
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #265 -2.5 #263
Freethrows 23.5 #357 75% #274 17.5 #8
Second Chance 31.9% #235 1.08 #242 0.35 #252
Turnovers 16.9% #160
Total Defense -2.4 #252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.2% #358 2.8% #358
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.6% #281 2.1% #223
Possession Length 19.6 #354 17.4 #196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #354 0.16 #139
Improvement +3.5 #21 -1.2 #259

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.2% 10.0% 2.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 2.6% 8.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 26.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 101 - 14
Quad 47 - 98 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 303 @Ball St. L 64 - 75 35% -2  0 - 1 -16 -5 F D- D+ -12 F D C+
 Fri, Nov 7 266 SE Louisiana W 58 - 52 49% +9  1 - 1 -3 -5 A F C +3 A+ C B-
 Tue, Nov 11 158 Tulane L 62 - 66 27% -3  1 - 2 -7 -7 F C- A+ -1 B- F B
 Fri, Nov 14 80 @McNeese St. L 62 - 88 5% -18  1 - 3 -16 -3 F C- D -14 F A+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 77 @Stanford L 66 - 93 4% -12  1 - 4 -17 -2 C+ F C -14 F B C-
 Fri, Nov 21 55 @Santa Clara L 43 - 80 3% -20  1 - 5 -24 -23 F F F -3 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 24 188 @UC Davis L 56 - 77 16% -8  1 - 6 -20 -13 F F F -8 F C- D
 Fri, Nov 28 333 Jackson St. L 45 - 51 67% -5  1 - 7 -20 -28 F C- F +8 A- C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 220 @Lamar L 55 - 65 20% +2  1 - 8 -10 -6 D C F -5 D- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 118 UNC Wilmington L 63 - 70 20% -3  1 - 9 -7 -4 C- D C- -4 D+ B B
 Sat, Dec 13 234 @Louisiana Tech L 44 - 65 22% -11  1 - 10 -22 -19 F F F -7 D- F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 210 @Southern Miss L 54 - 62 19% -2  1 - 11 0 - 1 -8 -16 F F B+ +7 A+ A F
 Sat, Dec 20 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 76 - 62 55% +12  2 - 11 1 - 1 +4 +5 B F A+ -0 B+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 28 289 Norfolk St. W 63 - 54 54% +9  3 - 11 -1 -1 B- F A+ +1 A- B- C-
 Wed, Dec 31 190 South Alabama L 58 - 63 33% -2  3 - 12 1 - 2 -10 -1 D- C- B -10 D+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 210 Southern Miss L 67 - 74 37% -2  3 - 13 1 - 3 -13 -5 D- A+ F -8 F B A+
 Thu, Jan 8 354 Louisiana Monroe W 85 - 79 75% +3  4 - 13 2 - 3 -10 +2 C- A- F -12 F C C
 Sat, Jan 10 125 Troy L 70 - 90 22% -16  4 - 14 2 - 4 -21 +3 A+ F C -26 F F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 261 @Texas St. L 62 - 69 27%
 Sat, Jan 17 190 @South Alabama L 58 - 68 16%
 Thu, Jan 22 223 @Appalachian St. L 57 - 66 21%
 Sat, Jan 24 244 @Old Dominion L 65 - 72 24%
 Thu, Jan 29 290 Georgia St. W 67 - 66 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 230 Georgia Southern L 71 - 74 40%
 Wed, Feb 4 213 @James Madison L 62 - 71 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 325 Central Michigan W 69 - 65 64%
 Thu, Feb 12 268 Coastal Carolina L 66 - 67 49%
 Thu, Feb 19 133 Arkansas St. L 69 - 77 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 261 Texas St. L 65 - 66 47%
 Tue, Feb 24 125 @Troy L 60 - 74 10%
 Fri, Feb 27 133 @Arkansas St. L 66 - 80 11%
Totals 8 - 23 5 - 13 -9 -7 D- F D+ -2 D+ C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 0.7 0.0 3.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 2.8 0.1 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 5.6 1.1 0.0 9.2 10th
11th 0.1 2.3 7.7 4.0 0.1 14.2 11th
12th 0.1 2.6 9.6 7.7 1.0 0.0 21.1 12th
13th 2.0 8.4 15.5 11.4 2.3 0.1 39.6 13th
14th 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.5 14th
Total 2.6 9.8 18.8 23.5 20.3 13.7 7.3 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 1.0% 1.0
9-9 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.9
8-10 7.3% 7.3
7-11 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
6-12 20.3% 20.3
5-13 23.5% 23.5
4-14 18.8% 18.8
3-15 9.8% 9.8
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%