Marshall
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 #171
Expected Predictive Rating +1.8 #137
Pace 72.3 #93
Improvement -4.7 #353

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #173 C B D C- D-
Defense #196 C+ B C- D- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #352 1.33 #34 -2.7 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #108 0.72 #225 +1.0 #127
Three Pointers 46% #79 1.01 #180 +2.7 #95
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #154 +1.0 #153
Freethrows 15.7 #274 75% #112 11.7 #237
Second Chance 30.8% #180 1.21 #31 0.37 #81
Turnovers 18.3% #283
Total Offense -0.1 #173

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.15 #167 +2.8 #86
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #58 0.71 #120 -1.2 #269
Three Pointers 41% #187 1.01 #185 +0.0 #175
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #126 +1.6 #125
Freethrows 20.8 #327 71% #122 14.8 #49
Second Chance 33.4% #284 0.83 #11 0.28 #79
Turnovers 15.9% #223
Total Defense -0.7 #196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #315 -1.8% #51
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.2% #123 -1.4% #156
Possession Length 15.8 #55 17.7 #244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #113 0.17 #156
Improvement -1.6 #281 -3.0 #330

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 12.2% 7.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.1
.500 or above 94.8% 96.8% 87.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.1% 93.1% 79.3%
Conference Champion 9.6% 11.3% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.2% 12.2% 7.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 77.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 57 - 8
Quad 413 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 168 @Massachusetts W 78 - 72 38% +5  1 - 0 +8 -4 A+ C F +11 C A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 164 @Toledo W 85 - 73 38% -1  2 - 0 +14 +10 A+ F F +5 B+ A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 169 Elon W 96 - 89 61% +6  3 - 0 +3 +9 B+ A+ F -7 C+ C+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 17 @Virginia L 78 - 104 4% -20  3 - 1 -6 +8 C A+ F -12 D+ D- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 98 - 70 87% +5  4 - 1 +15 +10 A+ F C +3 A+ C B
 Sun, Nov 23 308 Mercyhurst W 69 - 60 84% +5  5 - 1 -3 -0 A- F C+ -2 A- C+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 167 Lipscomb L 67 - 90 61% -17  5 - 2 -27 -14 F B- F -11 F A+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 118 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 70 26% -1  5 - 3 +5 +7 C- A+ F -3 A+ B F
 Sat, Dec 6 178 @Ohio L 81 - 88 41% -6  5 - 4 -5 +5 D+ B C- -10 D+ B- F
 Wed, Dec 10 150 Western Kentucky W 77 - 61 57% +7  6 - 4 +13 +5 D A A+ +9 B A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 142 Wright St. W 76 - 74 54% -1  7 - 4 +0 +10 B- A+ C+ -10 C- A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 125 @Troy L 63 - 70 29% -6  7 - 5 0 - 1 -2 -7 F D+ F +5 A+ B+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 290 Georgia St. W 84 - 80 81% +2  8 - 5 1 - 1 -6 +3 B- A+ F -10 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 3 223 Appalachian St. W 88 - 81 70% +8  9 - 5 2 - 1 +1 +13 A+ F A- -13 F D- C
 Wed, Jan 7 213 @James Madison W 66 - 64 46% +8  10 - 5 3 - 1 +2 +0 F A A- +2 A D C+
 Sat, Jan 10 290 @Georgia St. L 73 - 81 63% +3  10 - 6 3 - 2 -12 -3 D+ C+ F -9 B F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 268 Coastal Carolina W 78 - 70 78%
 Sat, Jan 17 213 James Madison W 77 - 72 68%
 Thu, Jan 22 354 Louisiana Monroe W 88 - 72 93%
 Sat, Jan 24 190 South Alabama W 73 - 69 64%
 Wed, Jan 28 261 @Texas St. W 75 - 73 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 133 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 30%
 Wed, Feb 4 210 Southern Miss W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 84 Miami (OH) L 78 - 83 34%
 Wed, Feb 11 244 @Old Dominion W 77 - 76 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 230 @Georgia Southern L 81 - 82 49%
 Thu, Feb 19 223 @Appalachian St. L 69 - 70 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 268 @Coastal Carolina W 75 - 73 58%
 Tue, Feb 24 244 Old Dominion W 80 - 73 74%
 Fri, Feb 27 230 Georgia Southern W 85 - 79 70%
Totals 18 - 12 11 - 7 -1 +0 C B D -1 C+ B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.7 2.3 0.4 9.6 1st
2nd 0.5 4.3 7.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.3 9.0 4.0 0.5 0.0 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.2 8.2 3.9 0.3 14.6 4th
5th 0.5 6.1 5.1 0.4 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 6.2 1.0 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.4 1.8 0.0 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 2.9 0.2 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.4 0.5 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 6.2 11.1 16.7 19.1 18.1 14.2 7.6 2.8 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 96.6% 0.4    0.4 0.1 0.0
15-3 82.9% 2.3    1.5 0.8 0.1
14-4 48.7% 3.7    1.6 1.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 18.5% 2.6    0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 4.0 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 34.8% 34.8% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 2.8% 34.6% 34.6% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.8
14-4 7.6% 29.0% 29.0% 13.6 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.2 5.4
13-5 14.2% 20.7% 20.7% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.0 11.3
12-6 18.1% 13.2% 13.2% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.7 0.0 15.7
11-7 19.1% 7.3% 7.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 17.7
10-8 16.7% 4.6% 4.6% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 15.9
9-9 11.1% 1.9% 1.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.8
8-10 6.2% 1.8% 1.8% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
7-11 2.6% 2.6
6-12 0.9% 0.9
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 13.9 88.8 0.0%