Nebraska
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.3 #16
Expected Predictive Rating +30.5 #2
Pace 68.6 #201
Improvement +3.7 #30

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #28 A+ C- A C- B-
Defense #15 A- A+ A- A A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 1.52 #2 +4.1 #53
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #327 0.58 #350 -4.0 #345
Three Pointers 53% #13 1.10 #73 +8.2 #8
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #17 +8.3 #16
Freethrows 15.5 #279 76% #69 11.8 #232
Second Chance 29.2% #229 1.04 #182 0.30 #209
Turnovers 13.2% #21
Total Offense +8.7 #28

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 20% #365 1.18 #199 +10.8 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #19 0.68 #86 -1.9 #314
Three Pointers 52% #8 0.91 #59 -2.9 #298
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #28 +6.0 #28
Freethrows 12.4 #13 72% #148 8.9 #352
Second Chance 24.4% #19 0.87 #18 0.21 #12
Turnovers 19.7% #41
Total Defense +8.6 #15

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #84 -4.8% #3
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.3% #15 -7.4% #57
Possession Length 16.2 #80 18.8 #349
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #263 0.07 #4
Improvement +0.5 #149 +3.2 #28

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.7% 0.3%
#1 Seed 9.9% 12.0% 4.9%
Top 2 Seed 32.6% 37.5% 21.0%
Top 4 Seed 86.5% 89.8% 78.6%
Top 6 Seed 99.0% 99.6% 97.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.1 2.9 3.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 21.1% 25.9% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round91.8% 92.9% 89.3%
Sweet Sixteen54.2% 56.7% 48.3%
Elite Eight23.7% 25.5% 19.5%
Final Four9.6% 10.3% 8.0%
Championship Game3.7% 4.1% 2.7%
National Champion1.5% 1.7% 0.9%

Next Game: Northwestern (Away) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 45 - 4
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 5
Quad 27 - 117 - 6
Quad 34 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 320 West Georgia W 86 - 53 99% +11  1 - 0 +21 +6 D+ A+ B- +14 A+ B C+
 Sat, Nov 8 172 Florida International W 96 - 66 97% +21  2 - 0 +26 +12 A+ D C+ +11 A+ B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 324 Maryland Eastern Shore W 69 - 50 99% +15  3 - 0 +6 -5 F D- A+ +11 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 54 Oklahoma W 105 - 99 76% -3  4 - 0 +16 +32 A+ F A+ -16 F B- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 48 New Mexico W 84 - 72 73% +11  5 - 0 +23 +7 A+ F D +15 A A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 74 Kansas St. W 86 - 85 82% +4  6 - 0 +9 +10 A+ C- B+ -1 B C B-
 Tue, Nov 25 143 Winthrop W 80 - 73 95% +2  7 - 0 +5 +6 C- F A+ -0 D- A C+
 Sat, Nov 29 299 South Carolina Upstate W 72 - 63 99% +2  8 - 0 -2 -6 D+ D- F +4 B- A D-
 Sun, Dec 7 43 Creighton W 71 - 50 78% +14  9 - 0 +30 +8 A C- B+ +24 A+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 10 39 Wisconsin W 90 - 60 76% +14  10 - 0 1 - 0 +40 +22 A+ A B +19 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 8 @Illinois W 83 - 80 28% +6  11 - 0 2 - 0 +27 +29 A+ A- A -2 B- F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 319 North Dakota W 78 - 55 99% +3  12 - 0 +11 +2 D+ F A+ +10 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Dec 30 335 New Hampshire W 86 - 55 99% +10  13 - 0 +17 +10 D+ A+ C +8 B A A+
 Fri, Jan 2 13 Michigan St. W 58 - 56 56% +1  14 - 0 3 - 0 +18 +2 C C+ A+ +17 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 36 @Ohio St. W 72 - 69 52% +5  15 - 0 4 - 0 +20 +7 A- F D+ +12 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 31 @Indiana W 83 - 77 50% -1  16 - 0 5 - 0 +23 +21 A+ C+ A+ +3 B+ D A+
 Tue, Jan 13 72 Oregon W 90 - 55 88% +14  17 - 0 6 - 0 +40 +27 A+ B+ A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 63 @Northwestern W 77 - 71 70%
 Wed, Jan 21 46 Washington W 79 - 70 81%
 Sat, Jan 24 76 @Minnesota W 72 - 65 74%
 Tue, Jan 27 1 @Michigan L 74 - 85 15%
 Sun, Feb 1 8 Illinois L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 124 @Rutgers W 77 - 65 87%
 Tue, Feb 10 3 Purdue L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 63 Northwestern W 80 - 68 86%
 Tue, Feb 17 22 @Iowa L 69 - 71 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 99 Penn St. W 83 - 68 92%
 Wed, Feb 25 112 Maryland W 81 - 65 94%
 Sat, Feb 28 47 @USC W 78 - 75 62%
 Tue, Mar 3 38 @UCLA W 73 - 72 55%
 Sun, Mar 8 22 Iowa W 72 - 68 66%
Totals 26 - 5 15 - 5 +17 +9 A+ C- A +9 A- A+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.4 8.1 6.6 2.3 0.3 21.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.3 10.1 5.8 0.9 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.9 10.2 6.3 0.6 0.0 21.4 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 7.9 5.3 0.6 16.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.8 0.3 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 2.1 7th
8th 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.1 10.2 16.1 20.8 20.4 14.5 7.5 2.3 0.3 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 99.8% 2.3    2.1 0.2
18-2 87.5% 6.6    4.4 2.1 0.1 0.0
17-3 55.9% 8.1    2.8 3.8 1.4 0.1
16-4 16.8% 3.4    0.4 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.1
15-5 1.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.1% 21.1 10.0 7.5 2.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 1.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
19-1 2.3% 100.0% 16.6% 83.4% 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 7.5% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 1.8 2.7 3.4 1.3 0.1 100.0%
17-3 14.5% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 2.2 2.9 6.5 4.4 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-4 20.4% 100.0% 8.2% 91.8% 2.7 1.9 6.5 9.0 2.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 20.8% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 3.1 0.8 3.9 9.3 5.7 1.0 0.1 100.0%
14-6 16.1% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 3.7 0.2 1.1 5.7 6.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.2% 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 4.2 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 5.1% 100.0% 1.5% 98.5% 4.9 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 2.1% 100.0% 0.5% 99.5% 5.5 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
10-10 0.6% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 6.8% 93.2% 3.1 0.0 100.0%