UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.7 #115
Expected Predictive Rating +2.8 #122
Pace 72.8 #82
Improvement -0.1 #191

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 D C+ A+ C C
Defense #119 C+ A- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.19 #139 +5.2 #33
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #75 0.69 #264 +1.2 #108
Three Pointers 28% #363 0.79 #359 -9.8 #363
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #278 -3.4 #278
Freethrows 18.5 #123 70% #264 13.0 #158
Second Chance 33.3% #112 1.06 #172 0.35 #111
Turnovers 11.9% #3
Total Offense +2.1 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #250 1.21 #246 +0.5 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.56 #8 +2.0 #53
Three Pointers 44% #105 1.02 #191 -1.4 #242
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #145 +1.1 #145
Freethrows 15.6 #99 78% #348 12.1 #201
Second Chance 25.4% #28 0.93 #50 0.24 #21
Turnovers 16.3% #201
Total Defense +1.6 #119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #215 -0.3% #144
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #280 -1.9% #147
Possession Length 16.0 #64 17.3 #186
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #51 0.18 #182
Improvement -0.2 #194 +0.1 #176

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.2% 10.1% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.5
.500 or above 92.7% 97.0% 87.9%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 88.4% 67.3%
Conference Champion 7.5% 11.3% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.2% 10.1% 6.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 52.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 43 - 5
Quad 37 - 610 - 11
Quad 49 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106 - 55 99% +29  1 - 0 +24 +5 F B A+ +11 A+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 24 @North Carolina St. L 70 - 94 9% -11  1 - 1 -5 +1 F B+ A -5 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 306 Alabama St. L 74 - 77 91% -4  1 - 2 -14 -10 F D- B- -5 D A D-
 Fri, Nov 14 87 High Point W 91 - 74 50% +3  2 - 2 +21 +8 B F A+ +11 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 190 South Alabama W 80 - 72 79% +5  3 - 2 +3 +14 A C A- -10 D- A F
 Mon, Nov 24 126 Southern Illinois W 81 - 73 57% +5  4 - 2 +10 +11 C- A+ A+ -1 B A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 257 UTEP W 75 - 59 81% +7  5 - 2 +11 +9 F A A+ +3 D A+ B+
 Mon, Dec 1 120 @Middle Tennessee L 61 - 76 43% -4  5 - 3 -9 -4 F A+ C -6 B+ F C
 Fri, Dec 5 165 @Drake W 74 - 69 55% +2  6 - 3 +7 +4 F A- C- +4 A+ B D-
 Sun, Dec 14 125 Troy L 85 - 86 68% -0  6 - 4 -2 +14 A+ A B+ -16 F C- F
 Wed, Dec 17 328 Cleveland St. W 101 - 77 93% +7  7 - 4 +11 +14 A C- A+ -4 F A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 218 UNC Asheville W 72 - 47 82% +13  8 - 4 +19 +2 C- D- A+ +19 A+ A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 31 105 Wichita St. L 70 - 75 57% +6  8 - 5 0 - 1 -3 +3 D B+ A+ -7 D+ C B
 Sun, Jan 4 75 @South Florida W 109 - 106 2OT 25% -3  9 - 5 1 - 1 +14 +11 C F A+ +2 C A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 102 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 76 56% -7  9 - 6 1 - 2 -3 -5 F B B- +2 A+ B+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 262 @East Carolina W 87 - 85 OT 73% +2  10 - 6 2 - 2 -1 +1 F C- A+ -3 D+ C C+
 Wed, Jan 14 158 @Tulane W 75 - 74 53%
 Sun, Jan 18 93 Tulsa W 80 - 79 53%
 Thu, Jan 22 75 South Florida L 81 - 82 47%
 Wed, Jan 28 332 @Texas San Antonio W 81 - 70 86%
 Sat, Jan 31 137 @North Texas L 67 - 68 48%
 Thu, Feb 5 83 Memphis L 75 - 76 50%
 Sun, Feb 8 247 Rice W 80 - 68 86%
 Wed, Feb 11 93 @Tulsa L 77 - 82 31%
 Sun, Feb 15 158 Tulane W 78 - 71 73%
 Wed, Feb 18 140 @Temple L 77 - 78 49%
 Sun, Feb 22 83 @Memphis L 73 - 79 28%
 Sun, Mar 1 137 North Texas W 70 - 65 68%
 Wed, Mar 4 170 @Charlotte W 75 - 73 55%
 Sun, Mar 8 262 East Carolina W 81 - 69 87%
Totals 18 - 12 10 - 8 +4 +2 D C+ A+ +2 C+ A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.9 2.7 1.1 0.1 7.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.5 4.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.1 5.9 1.1 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 7.5 2.1 0.0 12.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 6.9 4.2 0.2 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 7.0 0.7 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 6.3 2.4 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.5 4.1 4.2 0.3 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.1 0.9 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.2 1.4 3.1 1.2 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.8 6.6 10.9 15.8 19.0 17.4 13.4 8.1 3.6 1.2 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 96.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 92.6% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 75.2% 2.7    1.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 35.5% 2.9    0.7 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.3% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.5% 7.5 3.2 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 33.3% 33.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 1.2% 27.4% 27.0% 0.4% 11.4 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.6%
14-4 3.6% 19.8% 19.8% 11.8 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.9
13-5 8.1% 16.5% 16.5% 12.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 6.8
12-6 13.4% 15.2% 15.2% 12.2 0.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 11.3
11-7 17.4% 9.9% 9.9% 12.4 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 15.6
10-8 19.0% 5.2% 5.2% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 18.0
9-9 15.8% 4.0% 4.0% 12.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 15.1
8-10 10.9% 2.4% 2.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.6
7-11 6.6% 1.4% 1.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5
6-12 2.8% 1.6% 1.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 12.3 91.8 0.0%