UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.3#107
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#105
Pace74.8#63
Improvement+0.8#111

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#106
First Shot+0.7#152
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#78
Layup/Dunks+8.3#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.0#363
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement+2.6#17

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#116
First Shot-1.1#212
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#33
Layups/Dunks-1.0#216
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#253
Freethrows-0.5#224
Improvement-1.8#324
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.8% 11.3% 7.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 87.8% 93.4% 81.0%
.500 or above in Conference 74.5% 79.4% 68.6%
Conference Champion 11.4% 13.4% 8.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.1% 2.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round9.7% 11.2% 7.9%
Second Round1.7% 2.2% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 6
Quad 39 - 411 - 10
Quad 48 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106-55 99%     1 - 0 +26.0 +3.6 +13.5
  Fri, Nov 7 29 @North Carolina St. L 70-94 13%     1 - 1 -7.5 -2.7 -3.4
  Tue, Nov 11 266 Alabama St. L 74-77 88%     1 - 2 -11.6 -8.6 -2.8
  Fri, Nov 14 86 High Point W 91-74 53%     2 - 2 +20.4 +7.5 +11.1
  Fri, Nov 21 180 South Alabama W 80-72 80%     3 - 2 +3.5 +12.7 -8.4
  Mon, Nov 24 142 Southern Illinois W 81-73 63%     4 - 2 +8.9 +8.3 +0.6
  Tue, Nov 25 234 UTEP W 75-59 79%     5 - 2 +11.8 +11.3 +2.3
  Mon, Dec 1 149 @Middle Tennessee W 78-77 55%    
  Fri, Dec 5 143 @Drake W 71-70 52%    
  Sun, Dec 14 131 Troy W 79-74 69%    
  Wed, Dec 17 303 Cleveland St. W 91-76 92%    
  Sun, Dec 21 218 UNC Asheville W 83-72 84%    
  Wed, Dec 31 92 Wichita St. W 77-75 56%    
  Tue, Jan 6 81 @South Florida L 80-86 30%    
  Wed, Jan 7 111 Florida Atlantic W 81-77 63%    
  Sun, Jan 11 259 @East Carolina W 81-74 73%    
  Wed, Jan 14 152 @Tulane W 79-78 55%    
  Sun, Jan 18 91 Tulsa W 77-76 54%    
  Thu, Jan 22 81 South Florida W 84-83 50%    
  Wed, Jan 28 231 @Texas San Antonio W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 123 @North Texas L 68-70 45%    
  Thu, Feb 5 70 Memphis L 78-79 48%    
  Sun, Feb 8 213 Rice W 79-68 83%    
  Wed, Feb 11 91 @Tulsa L 74-79 34%    
  Sun, Feb 15 152 Tulane W 82-75 74%    
  Wed, Feb 18 148 @Temple W 81-80 54%    
  Sun, Feb 22 70 @Memphis L 75-82 29%    
  Sun, Mar 1 123 North Texas W 71-67 66%    
  Wed, Mar 4 196 @Charlotte W 77-73 63%    
  Sun, Mar 8 259 East Carolina W 84-71 87%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.4 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 11.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.1 2.6 0.6 0.1 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.6 5.4 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.7 5.9 2.7 0.3 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 5.8 3.3 0.4 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.1 4.2 0.6 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.4 1.0 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 4.2 1.4 0.1 7.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.7 0.1 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.5 0.2 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.6 7.0 9.7 11.8 14.2 14.0 12.3 9.8 6.2 3.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 95.3% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 83.3% 3.1    2.2 0.9 0.1
14-4 54.0% 3.4    1.6 1.2 0.4 0.0
13-5 20.9% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 6.6 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 43.5% 34.8% 8.7% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3%
17-1 0.5% 42.6% 30.2% 12.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 17.7%
16-2 1.9% 33.7% 29.9% 3.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.2 5.4%
15-3 3.8% 28.5% 27.8% 0.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.7 1.0%
14-4 6.2% 23.7% 23.5% 0.2% 11.7 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 4.8 0.3%
13-5 9.8% 18.0% 18.0% 11.9 0.4 1.1 0.2 8.0
12-6 12.3% 13.9% 13.9% 12.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 10.6
11-7 14.0% 9.3% 9.3% 12.3 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 12.7
10-8 14.2% 5.0% 5.0% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.4
9-9 11.8% 4.2% 4.2% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.3
8-10 9.7% 2.1% 2.1% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 9.5
7-11 7.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
6-12 4.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 2.5% 0.7% 0.7% 14.6 0.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.8% 9.6% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.4 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 90.2 0.2%