UCLA
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +13.1 #38
Expected Predictive Rating +10.9 #55
Pace 65.1 #291
Improvement +0.4 #160

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #44 B B- B+ B F
Defense #40 B C A C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #283 1.30 #53 +0.3 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.82 #87 +4.7 #17
Three Pointers 35% #304 1.15 #27 -0.6 #204
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #63 +4.4 #62
Freethrows 19.6 #76 74% #139 14.5 #69
Second Chance 33.3% #114 1.08 #134 0.36 #93
Turnovers 14.5% #58
Total Offense +7.2 #44

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.22 #266 +3.4 #75
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #125 0.74 #159 -0.4 #208
Three Pointers 47% #34 0.86 #31 +0.4 #167
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #75 +3.4 #75
Freethrows 17.5 #194 71% #127 12.5 #177
Second Chance 30.3% #163 1.03 #162 0.31 #160
Turnovers 20.6% #18
Total Defense +5.9 #40

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #336 -1.5% #65
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.0% #29 -5.2% #86
Possession Length 17.0 #146 19.0 #359
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #134 0.14 #71
Improvement -0.2 #192 +0.5 #153

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.3% 1.7% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 7.4% 9.4% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.3% 61.8% 41.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.0% 61.4% 41.4%
Average Seed 8.6 8.5 9.0
.500 or above 93.6% 96.7% 87.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.9% 78.5% 52.0%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four9.8% 9.9% 9.6%
First Round51.1% 57.3% 37.9%
Second Round27.1% 30.8% 19.2%
Sweet Sixteen7.3% 8.7% 4.4%
Elite Eight2.7% 3.2% 1.6%
Final Four0.9% 1.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 10
Quad 25 - 39 - 13
Quad 33 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 255 Eastern Washington W 80 - 74 97% +7  1 - 0 -2 -0 D+ D+ A+ -2 F A A+
 Fri, Nov 7 286 Pepperdine W 74 - 63 97% +10  2 - 0 +1 +7 C A+ C+ -5 B F B-
 Mon, Nov 10 320 West Georgia W 83 - 62 98% +11  3 - 0 +9 +10 B+ C F +0 F B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 2 Arizona L 65 - 69 15% +1  3 - 1 +20 +7 A+ D- F +13 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 18 307 Sacramento St. W 79 - 48 98% +19  4 - 1 +19 -0 D+ A+ F +19 A+ A- B
 Fri, Nov 21 292 Presbyterian W 86 - 46 98% +24  5 - 1 +29 +12 A+ A+ D+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 81 California L 72 - 80 72% -2  5 - 2 -1 +2 D+ B+ B- -3 D A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 46 @Washington W 82 - 80 45% +3  6 - 2 1 - 0 +16 +22 A+ A+ A+ -5 D- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 72 Oregon W 74 - 63 78% +8  7 - 2 2 - 0 +16 +14 A- A C +3 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 10 Gonzaga L 72 - 82 25% -2  7 - 3 +10 +12 A+ C A+ -3 C A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 17 82 Arizona St. W 90 - 77 81% +9  8 - 3 +17 +16 A+ C- A+ +0 A+ D+ C
 Fri, Dec 19 249 Cal Poly W 108 - 87 96% +7  9 - 3 +13 +20 A+ D A+ -9 F C A+
 Tue, Dec 23 287 UC Riverside W 97 - 65 97% +14  10 - 3 +22 +9 C- A+ C +9 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 22 @Iowa L 61 - 74 29% -10  10 - 4 2 - 1 +6 +5 B- F A- -1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 39 @Wisconsin L 72 - 80 39% -12  10 - 5 2 - 2 +8 +5 C B+ B +3 B+ D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 112 Maryland W 67 - 55 87% +9  11 - 5 3 - 2 +13 +1 F C A+ +13 A+ F A
 Wed, Jan 14 99 @Penn St. W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Jan 17 36 @Ohio St. L 72 - 76 37%
 Tue, Jan 20 3 Purdue L 70 - 76 30%
 Sat, Jan 24 63 Northwestern W 76 - 69 75%
 Wed, Jan 28 72 @Oregon W 74 - 72 59%
 Sat, Jan 31 31 Indiana W 75 - 73 57%
 Tue, Feb 3 124 Rutgers W 77 - 63 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 46 Washington W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 1 @Michigan L 70 - 85 8%
 Tue, Feb 17 13 @Michigan St. L 64 - 73 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 8 Illinois L 72 - 76 34%
 Tue, Feb 24 47 USC W 78 - 73 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 76 @Minnesota W 69 - 66 59%
 Tue, Mar 3 16 Nebraska L 72 - 73 45%
 Sat, Mar 7 47 @USC L 75 - 76 46%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 +13 +7 B B- B+ +6 B C A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 2.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.9 4.2 1.7 0.1 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 6.6 3.8 0.4 13.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 1.5 6.9 5.3 0.8 0.0 14.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.0 6.3 1.3 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.8 6.9 2.1 0.1 12.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.5 3.2 0.3 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.1 0.6 0.0 8.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 3.3 1.2 0.1 6.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.5 8.8 14.3 17.4 17.9 15.4 10.3 5.7 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 69.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
16-4 22.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 5.6% 94.4% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
16-4 0.8% 100.0% 8.8% 91.2% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.2% 99.5% 5.1% 94.4% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-6 5.7% 98.8% 2.4% 96.4% 6.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.7%
13-7 10.3% 95.7% 1.9% 93.8% 7.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 3.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.4 95.6%
12-8 15.4% 87.0% 0.9% 86.2% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.6 4.0 2.8 0.8 2.0 86.9%
11-9 17.9% 71.5% 0.6% 70.8% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.4 4.4 2.4 0.0 5.1 71.3%
10-10 17.4% 46.4% 0.3% 46.1% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.0 0.1 9.3 46.2%
9-11 14.3% 15.1% 0.1% 15.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 0.1 12.1 15.0%
8-12 8.8% 2.0% 0.1% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.7 2.0%
7-13 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 4.5 0.2%
6-14 1.7% 1.7
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 55.3% 0.8% 54.5% 8.6 44.7 55.0%